فهرست مطالب آرمان یوسفی بارفروشی

In this study, economic well-being and the underground economy were calculated and estimated using the Index of Economic Well-Being (IEWB), and the MIMIC method, respectively. Then, using the ARDL method in linear (symmetric) and non-linear (asymmetric) formats, the effect of oil rent on economic well-being was investigated according to the level of the underground economy over the period 1973 to 2021. The long-run results demonstrate that oil rent has a positive effect on economic well-being in a symmetric model. In an asymmetric form, oil rent has a positive and asymmetric effect on economic well-being, which means that with increases in oil rent, economic well-being boosts, and with its decreases, economic well-being lessens. Also, the impact of increases in oil rent on economic well-being is more than its decreases. Another finding is that the higher size of the underground economy causes a reduction in the favorable effect of increases in oil rent on economic well-being. The inflation rate has a negative effect on economic well-being in both models. According to the results, it is suggested that governments should strengthen the tax system and the National Development Fund during increases in oil rent, so that economic well-being is not damaged when decreases in oil rent.

Curbing inflation is one of the requirements of a good economic policy. The steady rise of inflation can exacerbate poverty and income inequality, and even increase crime. Therefore, various studies have identified inflation as a determinant in reducing economic welfare. Considering that the Iranian economy has experienced high inflation in recent decades, it seems that the welfare of the Iranian population responds quickly to this variable, and reducing the frequency of data may reduce pattern explanation. This study attempts to measure the effect of monthly inflation on economic well-being for the period 1982-2020. Since the index of economic well-being cannot be determined at a frequency higher than annual, it is necessary to employ a mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) approach. Economic growth has been also included in the model as a control variable. The estimation results indicate that inflation has a negative (unfavorable) effect, and economic growth has a positive (favorable) effect on economic well-being. Moreover, the effect of inflation is significantly larger than economic growth. In other words, controlling inflation may have a greater effect on the economic well-being of society in the long term than economic growth.

In recent decades, the industrialization of countries has been one of the main factors for the increase of greenhouse gas emissions, which has led to severe environmental damage such as global warming, temperature inversion. In addition, the increase of environmental pollutants may have a negative impact on the health of individuals in the long run, thus increasing government health expenditures. In addition to the various factors affecting greenhouse gas emissions, globalization (economic, social, and political) can also affect the environment through various channels. For example, economic globalization affects the environment through the channels of income, composition, and technology. Moreover, social globalization can change the state of the environment through the media, the principle of mental distance, transportation, and access to knowledge and international events. Political globalization may also have an impact on the environment through the efficiency of intergovernmental organizations and international treaties. Considering the possible role of globalization (economic, social, and political) on the environment, this study attempts to investigate the relationship between globalization (economic, social, and political) and carbon dioxide emissions in Iran during 1979-2017 based on the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach. Moreover, this study tests the hypothesis of Martens et al. (2015) about the effectiveness of the globalization index results in terms of components (de facto and de jure). For further clarification, the study examines the above hypothesis using the three dimensions of economic, social, and political. In addition, the KOF Globalization Index is used, which consists of three dimensions: Economic, Social and Political, and each of the dimensions has two de facto and de jure components. Clearly, the impact of each of these dimensions of globalization and its components on the emission of environmental pollutants may be different. It should also be noted that the two de facto and de jure components in the KOF Globalization Index are known as a new classification introduced by Martens et al. (2015).

As mentioned in the introduction, the aim of this study is to analyze the effect of globalization on pollution in Iran. In order to make a comprehensive analysis, the dimensions (economic, social and political) and components (de facto and de jure) of globalization are also utilized. According to the theoretical and experimental studies, the regression model is specified in two formats, one is based on the dimensions of globalization (economic, social, and political) and the other is based on the components of globalization (de facto and de jure).
First model: the effect of globalization at the level of j on environmental pollution
The basis of the first model is the regression equation in equation ‎(1). EP represents the logarithm of carbon dioxide emissions. EC represents the logarithm of energy consumption, Pop represents the logarithm of population, GDP and GDP2 represent the logarithm of real gross domestic product and its square, respectively. In addition, Gloj represents the logarithm of the globalization index at level j, including total (T), economic (E), social (S), and political (P).
Based on equation (1), the ARDL(p,q,r,s,t,u) model is designed in the form of equation ‎(2). In this regard,  is the coefficient of autocorrelation,  is the coefficient of globalization index intervals; And  to  are coefficients of interruptions of energy consumption, real GDP, square of real GDP and population, respectively.
Based on equation ‎(2), the error correction model and long-run coefficients in the form of equation ‎(3) is specified as follows:

 the effect of Components of globalization at the level of j on environmental pollution
The basis of the model in this format is the regression equation in equation ‎(4), where GloDeFaj and GloDeJej are respectively the logarithm of the de facto and de jure globalization indexes at level j.
Similarly, based on equation ‎(4), the ARDL(p,q,r,s,t,u,v) model is designed in the form of equation ‎(5), where θ_1j and θ_2j are the coefficients of de facto and de jure globalization index at level j, respectively.
Based on equation ‎(5), the model of error correction and long-run coefficients is specified in the form of equation ‎(6) as follows:

The results of the data descriptions show that the dimensions and components of the globalization index have different trends, and carbon dioxide emissions have had an increasing trend since Iran's Islamic Revolution. The estimation results of the models indicate that the economic and social globalization indices have a positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions in the short term. Moreover, the de facto component of total and economic globalization has a negative effect on CO2 emissions. Furthermore, the de facto component of the social and political globalization index has a positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions, while the de facto component of total and economic globalization with a one-year lag has a positive effect on carbon dioxide emissions. In the long run, the total globalization index has no significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions, but two dimensions of social and economic globalization have a direct effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Besides, the de jure component of the total globalization index and the de jure component of the economic, social, and political dimensions directly affect carbon dioxide emissions, but the de facto component of the total and economic globalization index has a reverse effect on carbon dioxide emissions. Moreover, energy consumption and population have a direct effect on CO2 emissions, and the Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis cannot be rejected in Iran. The hypothesis of Martens et al. (2015) is also not rejected in this study.
On this basis, it is suggested that economic, social, and political decision-makers pay attention to the negative environmental impacts of the de jure component of economic, social, and political globalization and take action to optimize the environmental impacts of the de jure component of each of the three dimensions by looking closely at each of the sub-dimensions. Moreover, considering the favorable effect of the de facto component of economic globalization on the environment, it is better to give higher priority to economic globalization from a de facto point of view than to economic globalization from a de jure one, so that the Iranian economy can benefit from the advantages of globalization in the field of economy, as well as the environment can be spared from the damages caused by the expansion of the economy.

In Iran’s economy, tax revenue has constructed a significant part of government’s financial resources in recent years; based on the Central Bank of Iran (CBI) in 2017, about 45% of the government’s financial resources were tax revenue. Considering different components of the government’s financial resources, factors such as oil sanctions, oil prices, oil sales, and tax evasion are the most crucial factors affecting government revenue in Iran’s economy. Thus, due to the significance of tax evasion as the most influential factor on government income, the present study has examined the effect of government total size and its components on tax evasion in Iran between 1979 and 2019 using the Autoregressive Distributed Lag model. According to the two examined models in the study, government’s total and current sizes have a direct (unfavorable) effect on tax evasion, while the government’s developmental size has an indirect (favorable) effect. Furthermore, based on both examined models, the Financial Depth Index and unemployment directly (unfavorably) affect tax evasion. Also, total, direct and indirect taxes have an unfavorable effect on tax evasion.

Expenditures and tax revenues are among the most important fiscal instruments available to the government to affect the economy. Considering the prevailing conditions in economies, governments can create acceptable economic prosperity by determining and applying fiscal policies. The role of government fiscal instruments on economic welfare has been an issue that, contrary to its importance, has been less considered in domestic and foreign studies. Therefore, the present study aims to calculate economic well-being during the last five decades and analyze its determinants. For this purpose, first, the index of economic well-being has been calculated based on four dimensions of consumption flows, wealth stocks, economic inequality and economic insecurity. The results of calculating the index of economic well-being show that the highest level of economic well-being with 174 is related to 2017, and the lowest level with 71 is related to 1971. Then, the effect of government fiscal instruments and other variables in the form of two models using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model from 1971 to 2020 has been examined. The long-term results of estimating the research model in two formats show that the size of the government and the ratio of current expenditures to construction have a direct (favorable) and reverse (unfavorable) effect on economic well-being, respectively. Direct and indirect taxes have favorable and unfavorable effects on economic well-being, respectively. However, no significant effect has been found for total taxation. Also, economic growth and real per capita income directly (favorably) and inflation reversely (unfavorably) affect economic well-being. Based on the results of this study, it is suggested that economic policymakers for increasing the level of economic well-being in Iran, implement an expansionary fiscal policy with an emphasis on increasing construction spending (to the extent that it does not replace private investment) and reducing indirect taxes.

Informal employment typically poses many problems for communities and governments. For example, most informal workers face problems relating to poverty and economic insecurity due to the lack of a social security organization and labor law in the informal sector. Informal employment also has detrimental effects on governments, such as incorrect estimates of GDP and tax cuts. Accordingly, identifying the factors affecting informal employment will greatly help economic policymakers to control this phenomenon. This study attempts to examine the determinants of informal employment in urban and rural areas of Iran between 2013 and 2019. To this aim, applying the urban and rural household income-expenditure survey in the mentioned period, the share of informal employment in the total employment was calculated. Preliminary data processing illustrates that, on average, 45.1% of urban employees and 74.6% of rural employees are engaged in informal occupations. The results of estimating the research model indicate that employees' level of education and marital status have an indirect (favorable) effect on informal employment in urban and rural areas. There is also a U-shaped relationship between age and informal employment. At the same time, being a man in urban areas and being a woman in rural areas increase informal employment.

 Most social security resources in Iran are based on receiving insurancepremiums while employment in the informal sector reduces the number ofinsurers. Thus, informal employment causes the loss of income sources of the Social Security Organization

Due to the importance of the issue of lost financial resources for the Social Security Organization, in the present study, by calculating the amount ofinformal employment in economic sectors between 1392 and 1398, we try toestimate and analyze the lost financial resources due to informal employment.

For this purpose, using the expenditure and income data of households in the mentioned period and using the indicators of social insurance and the minimum legal wage, the amount of informal employment was measured interms of regions and economic sectors, and the structure was analyzed. Then,using a descriptive method and applying the concept of expandable informalemployment, the number of resources lost in the major economic sectors andrelated sectors was calculated provincially and nationally.

The results indicate that first, in the studied years, the share of informalemployment in total employment has increased. Also, among the four majoreconomic sectors, the agricultural sector has the highest number of informalemployees. Second, the financial resources lost due to informal employment havedecreased during this period. In addition, among the four major economic sectors,the industries and mines sector has got the most lost social security resources.

Since income inequality can affect individuals’ lives economically, socially, and environmentally, analyzing variables influencing income inequality is of great importance. Considering the fact that studies in Iran underestimate the role of the asymmetric macroeconomic instability on income inequality, this study attempts to analyze the asymmetric effect of macroeconomic instability on income inequality in Iran. To this aim, a non-linear autoregressive distributed lags model has been used over the period 1971-2018. The results indicate that in both symmetric and asymmetric models, macroeconomic instability has a direct effect on income distribution. It means that based on the asymmetric model, increases in macroeconomic instability raise the income inequality (unfavorable effect), and decreases in it reduce the income inequality (favorable effect). In terms of effect size, decreases in macroeconomic instability affect income inequality more than increases in it. In addition, in both asymmetric and symmetric models, an increase in direct tax or energy price reduces the income inequality, while an increase in indirect tax raises income inequality. Furthermore, the Kuznets hypothesis is not rejected in this study.

The lack of social security supports and labor market laws in informal employment has strengthened the expectation that poverty in a family in which the head of the household chooses informal employment is greater than in a family in which the head of the household works in the formal sector. Hence, this study attempts to investigate the effect of informal employment with other factors affecting household’s poverty. To this aim, by using the microdata plan of costs and incomes of urban and rural households in 2018, first, the poverty line was calculated based on 66% of the average annual household expenditures by provincial division for urban and rural areas; and poor households were identified as well. Then, according to the presented index in this study, heads of householdschr('39') employment types were formally and informally determined. In the primary data processing, a comparison between households with employed heads showed that the highest poverty rates were for households whose heads work in informal employment. Next, the estimation of the research model with the dependent variable limited to the basis of pseudo-panel data and random effects in logistic regression was performed in a separate format for 13248 urban households and 13115 rural households in 31 provinces. The results showed that the informal employment of the head of the households has a direct effect on the possibility of household poverty and the rate of influence in urban areas is higher than in rural areas. Furthermore, the head of the householdchr('39')s education, age, and gender have an indirect effect; and the square number of age and size of the household variables have a direct effect on the probability of household poverty. In such a way that the desired effect of education and age, and the undesired effect of the household dimension on the probability of household poverty in urban areas is greater than in rural areas.

Iran's economy has been overwhelmed by problems such as budget deficit and chronic inflation in recent decades, which based on theoretical literature and experimental evidence, a bilateral relationship exists between these two factors. This study assesses the impact of inflation on the budget deficit, known as Tanzi effect. Due to this relationship, it is possible that increases and decreases in inflation have different impacts on government deficit (total and mixed). This study examines the asymmetric effect of inflation on budget deficit (total, operating, and capital) from 1190:2 to 2018:3, and testing the Tanzi effect in the meantime. To analyze and estimate the asymmetric relationship, a Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag has been used, which first used by Shin et al. (2014) to analyze an asymmetric relationship. The results show that increases and decreases in inflation have an indirect effect on the total and operating budget deficits in the long run, which indicates the Patinkin effect in Iran's economy. In addition, Tanzi and Patinkin effects have not been found in the capital budget deficit. Moreover, findings indicate that inflation has had a non-linear (asymmetric) effect on the total and operating budget deficits. Furthermore, government oil revenue has indirect effect on the total budget, direct one on the operational budget, and indirect one on the capital budget.

The expansion of the dual exchange system (official and unofficial) increases the concerns about imbalances in macroeconomic variables, particularly, income inequality. Also, Inflation and unemployment are as the macroeconomic variables that can affect income inequality. Accordingly, the present study wants to investigate the role of the black market premium (Dollar) and the asymmetric effect of the unemployment rate and inflation on income inequality. For this purpose, based on the annual data between 1978 and 2017, a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach has been used in estimation. The results show that the black market premium in both linear and non-linear forms has a positive (undesirable) effect on income inequality. Unemployment in linear form has a positive (undesirable) effect on income inequality only in the long run. In non-linear form, the decreases in unemployment have a positive (desirable) effect on inequality in the short run. In the long run, both increases and decreases in unemployment have a direct impact on income inequality and the value of the desirable effect of decreases in unemployment is more than the undesirable effect of increases. Thus, the impact of asymmetric unemployment is confirmed on the income inequality in both the short and long run. Inflation in linear form has a direct effect on income inequality, but in non-linear form, both in the short and long run, decreases in inflation have a positive (desirable) effect on inequality. Hence, inflation also has an asymmetric effect on income inequality. Another finding is that

In oil economies such as Iran, the exchange rate in the informal market is an important variable influenced by oil price variation. Accordingly, and considering the importance of oil and its price in the Iranian economy, this study seeks to evaluate the effect of the global oil price on the unofficial exchange rate (dollar) in an asymmetric shape alongside the inflation gap between Iran and the United States. For this purpose, model estimation was done using linear and nonlinear ARDL approaches and monthly data during a period from Jan., 1983 to December, 2017. The results indicate that, in the symmetric approach, oil price shocks have negative effects on the informal exchange rate just in a long run. According to the nonlinear approach, however, oil shocks have an asymmetrical effect on the informal exchange rate of Iran. The positive impacts of oil prices on the exchange rate in both the short and the long terms are significant, but the negative impacts are not significant on the exchange rate. Also, the inflation gap between Iran and the United States proved to have a significant effect on the exchange rate with both linear and nonlinear patterns and in the short and long runs.

Due to the structure of exchange rate regime in Iran and its dependence on oil revenues in recent decades, it is expected that exchange rate changes can be regarded as a consequence of major changes in oil price. In this regard, the exchange rate increases and decreases can influence the level of employment of firms by affecting the amount of their profitability, and of course, this kind of influence can be asymmetric. Based on this, the present study has investigated the non-linear effect of exchange rate on employment in Iran in the framework of a basic model and five sectoral models (agriculture; services; mining; water, electricity and gas; manufacturing and construction sectors). For this purpose, a non-linear autoregressive distributed lag approach and annual data in period 1968-2017 have been used. The results of the basic model show that increases in exchange rate do not have a significant effect on total employment, but decreases in exchange rate have a reverse effect on total employment. Similarly, the model estimation for five sectors shows that increases in exchange rate do not have a significant effect on employment of these sectors. However, the effect of decreases in exchange rate on employment in services, mining, water, electricity, and gas; manufacturing; and construction sectors is reversed. Hence, to sum up, for four sectors including mining, water, electricity and gas, manufacturing and construction (partially), the exchange rate has had an asymmetric effect on employment in Iran economy.

In this study, it is attempted to study the role of oil price and oil revenue in unemployment rate in a symmetrical (linear) and asymmetric (nonlinear) model for Iran. For this purpose, seasonal data 2001:2 to 2017:4 and ARDL model in linear and nonlinear approach has been used. The results in the linear approach show that the oil price has inverse effect on unemployment rate and the oil revenue has no significant effect. Also, according to the nonlinear approach, in the short run, oil price and oil revenue have an asymmetric effect on the unemployment rate. So that, decreases in the oil prices has a negative effect on unemployment rate and the effect of increases in the oil price is not significant. In terms of oil revenue, the results show that increases and decreases have a reverse effect on the unemployment rate. So that, the first, the magnitude of the effect of increases in the oil income on unemployment is different from the effect of decreases in the oil income, and second, the effect of decreases in the oil income is greater than the effect of increases in the oil income. The results for oil price in long-run is similar to short-run, and only decreases in the oil price have a reverse effect on unemployment rate. In long-run, the impact of oil revenue is unlike to short-run and it's negative. So that the first, asymmetric effect of oil revenue on unemployment rate is confirmed, and second, unlike to short-run, in the long-run, the magnitude of the effect of increases in the oil revenue on unemployment is greater than the effect of decreases in the oil revenue. CPI in the linear and nonlinear approach has a negative effect on the unemployment rate in the short-run and long-run.