احمد سرلک

In this study, the effect of the components of the corporate governance system on the financial soundness of 12 banks in Iran during the period 2006-2023 was investigated using unbalanced panel data and fixed effects. In the present study, the CAMELS composite index has been used as a representative of the banking soundness index. The survey results have shown that among the corporate governance system's components, only the independent directors variable has a positive effect on the financial soundness. In contrast, the size of the board of directors, the number of meetings of the board of directors, the number of meetings of the audit committee, the duality of the CEO, and the number of meetings of the risk monitoring committee have a negative impact on the financial soundness of banks. In general, it can be expressed that the corporate governance system does not have a desirable effect on the financial soundness of the studied banks in Iran, which can be caused by the lack of real establishment of the corporate governance system in the country's banking system, especially in private and privatized banks, the absence of a correct strategy, corporate governance, lack of monitoring mechanisms, lack of proper transparency and effective accountability regarding information disclosure, poor management of assets and liabilities, etc.

Today, pollution has become one of the main management challenges of countries; In such a way that countries, in addition to policies and actions within their borders, also pursue the organization of pollution in the international arena. Undoubtedly, the production and Carbon dioxide emissions is a function of the economic growth process of countries. In this regard, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the causal relationship between Carbon dioxide emissions, foreign direct investment and economic growth in the Persian Gulf countries using PVAR model in 2019 -1980.   

The present study is an applied research and correlational research method. The statistical population of this study is the countries of the Persian Gulf that the required data of the model variables have been collected from the World Bank and economic sites of the studied countries. Model parameters were estimated by Eviews9 software.

The findings of this study showed that there is no two-way causal relationship between Carbon dioxide emissions and economic growth in the Persian Gulf countries. Also, there is no two-way causal relationship between Carbon dioxide emissions and foreign direct investment in the Persian Gulf countries. Finally, it was found that there is no two-way causal relationship between economic growth and foreign direct investment in the Persian Gulf countries.

Given that the countries under study are on the path to development, their industrial process, the concentration of industries in cities, the urbanization process and the consumption of fossil fuels and the resulting pollution have been growing. It is therefore suggested that in order to move towards sustainable development, policies that help protect the environment should be seriously pursued in these countries.

In this article, population aging in a closed economy with a computable generalized Diamond overlapping generations (OLG) model has been investigated in which the element of human capital has been endogenously formed. In this study, the effect of population aging in a closed economy with 8 overlapping generations based on the Diamond model, capable of simulating the intergenerational differences has been designed for the Iranian economy across 50 years from 1400 to 1450. The research model includes 3 economic agents of household, firm, and government, whose behavior and decision-making are interdependent. First, the impact of aging on the dynamics of the macroeconomic variables, in the scenario of the current situation of Iran's pensions and benefits has been simulated, and then, the impact of implementing policies to increase pensions and benefits under different scenarios on economic growth has been simulated. The results show that because increasing pensions is a cost to the government on the one hand and increases government spending and the government budget deficit, on the other hand, consumption and savings increase as the income of the elderly increases. Increasing retirement savings leads to larger capital markets and lower interest rates, resulting in increased investment. In addition, this policy indirectly has a double effect on growth through the effect of redistribution and improved income distribution. Hence, policy to increase pensions encourages demand-side economic growth. If this policy is based on the growth of human capital, it can neutralize the adverse effects of aging on economic growth.

Innovation is one of the most important factors affecting economic growth. On the other hand, economic corruption affects important changes, including innovation, which can be positive or negative depending on the economic conditions of the government. The purpose of this article is to investigate the impact of corruption on innovation in Asia with high and low corruption for the period of 2008-2022.  During the review period based on the classification of Transparency International, 15 countries Singapore, Hong Kong, Japan, Bhutan, Taiwan, United Arab Emirates, occupied Palestine, South Korea, Brunei, Qatar, Georgia, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Malaysia and Armenia are classified as less corrupt and other Asians as more corrupt. The results of some studies state that corruption is an obstacle to growth and innovation, while others consider it as a booster of innovation, and corruption has a positive relationship with innovation, which can remove hard obstacles for capital. Help to establish and strengthen innovation. Therefore, it can be important to investigate whether corruption leads to improved innovation in Asian countries with high and low corruption. This study tests the hypothesis that corruption enhances innovation or that it slows down innovation.

According to the theoretical foundations, in order to investigate the impact of corruption on innovation, the following model, which is taken from the studies of Al-Balushi (2020), Zakari, Vincent Tavi and Raphael (2022), has been used.IN indicates the number of patents registered as a substitute for innovation, the information of which is collected from the intellectual property organization (Yolka, 2004). Corp represents corruption. pop the population of the country(indicating the size of the country), gdp indicating the gross domestic product (at constant 2015 prices), 𝑡𝑟𝑎𝑑𝑒 indicating the openness of trade, nat indicating the rent of natural resources, hc the human capital index (number of university graduates) required information The research was extracted from the World Bank and Transparency International.

To check the significance of the variables. Due to the cross-sectional dependence between them, the mean test of boys was used, and the results show that the variables are maximum in the first order difference. Also, according to the results of the Kao test, the co-accumulation between the variables is confirmed and the model can be estimated without worrying about false regression. The results of the fixed effects test show that it is not possible to reject the hypothesis that the coefficients for all years are equal to zero, so there is no need for time fixed effects in this research and the Chow test is performed only with spatial effects. accepted According to the results of Limer and Hausman's F test, estimating the model in the form of panel data and using the fixed effects method will have a more appropriate fit.The findings show that corruption has a negative effect on innovation in countries with low corruption (coefficient -0.4417) and a slight positive effect on innovation (coefficient 0.0391) in countries with high corruption. The negative impact of corruption on innovation in countries with low corruption can be expressed through the misallocation of resources. Reducing corruption in countries with low levels of corruption leads to the improvement of innovation in these countries. Gross domestic product has a positive and significant effect on innovation in both groups of countries, but the intensity of its effect on innovation is greater in countries with low corruption than in countries with high corruption. The effect of population on corruption is positive in countries with less corruption and negative in countries with more corruption. The existence of a larger population provides the necessary potential for creating creativity and innovation, but its quality and capabilities, as well as creating a context for the flourishing of talents, are important. The results indicate the positive and significant impact of the abundance of natural resources on innovation in both groups of countries, but the intensity of its impact is greater in countries with less corruption. In these countries, suitable fields have been provided with more of these resources.The intensity of the impact of trade liberalization on innovation in countries with less corruption with a coefficient of 0.2416 is greater than this effect in countries with high corruption with a coefficient of 0.1915. Commercial liberalization in countries with less corruption has made innovative entrepreneurs in these countries have more opportunities to invest and expand the market and sell more products.According to the findings of the model, human capital has an impact on innovation, which, like most of the research variables, the intensity of its influence in countries with less corruption (coefficient 0.2691), is greater than the intensity of influence in countries with more corruption (0.0124). is Due to the higher quality of human resources in countries with less corruption and the availability of more competition in these countries, the impact of human capital on innovation is greater than in countries with more corruption.

The results of the research showed that corruption has increased the possibility of innovation in countries with high corruption, and the main reason for its positive effect is the lack of infrastructure suitable for innovation, the complexity and length of the bureaucratic process in these countries, and in other words Another is the low institutional quality of market operators in this field. Therefore, in line with the reduction of corruption, governments should consider effective policies to correct the harsh conditions of the market, which, in addition to aligning the laws with the support of these activities, will also reduce long administrative bureaucracies and provide the necessary legal support for entrepreneurship and innovation. can be done. It seems that in countries with a high degree of corruption, due to the quality of official and informal institutions in them and the lack of necessary legal and support infrastructures, paying bribes and circumventing many laws still slows down innovation-related activities.

In recent years, processes with long-term memory have played substantial role in time series analysis. The existence of long-term memory in assets return time series has momentous applications in examining market efficiency, investor’s behavioral logics, pricing, and asset portfolio selection. In present study, using the AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average model (ARFIMA) and the Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional (FIGARCH) and hyperbolic GARCH (HYGARCH) models to investigate the existence of long-term memory in the Tehran Stock Exchange's main index (TEPIX) and exchange rate ( US dollars) in using daily data during the period Novamber, 2011 to July, 2023. The results indicate the existence of long-term memory in TEPIX and exchange rate (US dollar) is confirmed in ARFIMA model in both ML and GLS approaches and in GARCH family models in both FIGARCH and HYGARCH models. According to these results, price behavior in each of the mentioned time series is a function of the past amounts.

Changes in banking business model, entering new markets, switching traditional and classical systems' nature to electronic banking and entering digital banking, as well as the emergence of FinTechs and startups in the banking industry on the one hand and the lack of a comprehensive view and inclusive in the field of risk identification and control, on the other hand, increased the concern and risk of banks. What is certain is that the process and manner of change do not indicate a secure future.  Therefore, the present study aims to provide a comprehensive classification of types of risks in the Iranian banking industry. The statistical sample includes the number of thirty selected experts and risk experts in the banking industry who selected by sampling method based on systematic elimination. Twenty final indicators determined for risk classification in the banking industry from among 68 extractive components obtained from literature review, obtained by repeating the Delphi method three times in 1399-1400 period. The results showed that the proposed classification of banking risk includes financial risk, operational risk, economic risk, socio-political risk, compliance risk, and knowledge and technology risk. The validating results through the Delphi technique showed that Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the third round was equal to 0.899 and indicated that all indicators were significant and valid and there was a high level of consensus among experts.

In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, carbon tax is considered by many countries and the results show this tax has positive effects on reduction of pollutants and technology development. Automotive industry has an important role in emission of pollutants. A carbon tax plan is needed to reduce carbon emissions in this industry. The purpose of this paper is to present a carbon tax plan for Iran automotive industry. The research method is descriptive and data collection is survey, Samples consists two groups. The first group are experts for proposing possible plan and determining evaluation indices and selecting the appropriate plan. The second group are managers in the automotive company for choose an appropriate plan. Effect of factors on carbon tax was determined by experts’ interviews and fuzzy mean, and six proposals were determined from the combination of factors affecting carbon tax. Six plans were ranked using fuzzy and VIKOR technique. The results showed the experts have considered the carbon tax payers and among them the design which covers the energy of oil and gas and managers have selected tax exemptions which covers only oil fuel.

Due to the threat of Covid-19 to the public health of the world, the World Health Organization, in order to show international interest in coordinating international responses to this disease, raised the public health emergency and after that, the global issue of Covid-19 was declared. In a highly interconnected world with strong ties between countries, the effects of disease outbreaks go beyond mortality and morbidity. Because with the reduction of economic activities, the performance of the global supply chain will also be disrupted. Considering the importance of this issue and the destructive consequences of the spread of this virus on the global economy, it is necessary to take a step to reduce this problem. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate and analyze the long-term effects of the human development index and its components (life expectancy, literacy, per capita income, urbanization and employment) on deaths caused by Corona in selected developing countries (30 developing countries). with a relatively high human development index) in the period of 2019-2022.

For this purpose, FMOLS and DOLS methods have been used.

The results indicate that the human development index and its components (life expectancy, literacy, per capita income, urbanization and employment) have a negative and significant effect on the death rate of Corona in selected developing countries in the long term.

Since the human development index has a negative and significant effect on corona deaths in selected developing countries in the long term, Therefore, the improvement of health, social and economic indicators can reduce the attenuation of Corona in societies. Therefore, it is necessary for governments to make interventions in the sectors of society, especially economy, education and security, in order to strengthen reforms in the health sector.

Energy is very important in the growth and development of countries. But the increase in energy consumption has caused environmental damage. Therefore, the use of renewable energy sources is a necessity. In the meantime, several components affect the use of this type of energy, of which social capital is one of the most important. In this regard, the present study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of social capital on the consumption of renewable energy in selected Islamic countries in the period of 2015-2022 and using the method of Dynamic common correlated effects. The results indicate that social capital has a positive effect on the consumption of renewable energy in selected Islamic countries in both short-term and long-term periods. Therefore, it is suggested that policymakers pay attention to the strengthening of social capital in selected Islamic countries. In this way, to speed up the transition to a revised energy consumption.

In recent years, global growth and development indicators have underscored a widening gap between developed and developing countries, including Islamic nations, prompting a shift towards endogenous growth strategies and the utilization of domestic capacities and sustainable resources. The tourism industry has emerged as a dynamic driver of growth and development, particularly in developed countries, over the past two decades. Islamic countries, rich in cultural, historical, and natural attractions, have the potential to optimize this capacity by establishing necessary platforms. This comparative research investigates the factors influencing tourism, with a specific emphasis on the tension index, across two groups: member countries of the Organization of the Islamic Conference and developed countries from 2005 to 2019. The findings reveal a positive and significant impact of tension variables, previous period tourist numbers, economic openness, and transportation infrastructure on foreign tourism. Notably, the estimated coefficient of the tension index is larger in member countries of the Organization of the Islamic Conference. Furthermore, the study identifies a positive and significant relationship between public spending on education and tourism in developed countries. Contradictory trends in the effect of the consumer price index on foreign tourism between the two groups highlight differences in purchasing power dynamics.

As the managers due to decision-making and stakeholders, namely investors, tend to predict the occurrence or non-occurrence of financial crisis in the organization under their management, so the present study is aimed to provide a model for predicting this crisis. To achieve the research purpose, smart web models including grey wolf, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization and genetics algorithms were used. For this purpose, the data obtained from the questionnaire completed by 20 experts in the quality section and the data obtained from 173 companies from 2009 to 2019 listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) were used. 38 indices from the categories of macroeconomic indicators, industry factors, corporate characteristics, political, cultural and behavioral events were identified using the review of the theoretical basics. Then, 25 indicators with high impact on the financial crisis were selected using expert opinion and MICMAC analysis. Then, by reviewing the financial statements of 173 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and using Rahavard Novin software, the data were collected from 25 selected indicators and their impact on the financial crisis was examined using gray wolf, ant colony, particle swarm and genetics algorithm to determine the final model of the research. It was found that in terms of efficiency, the ant colony optimization method is the most efficient and the gray wolf method is the least efficient in predicting the financial crisis.

This study was conducted with the aim of investigating the effect of good governance in moderating the effect of health expenditures on the economic growth of selected Asian countries that have similar governance quality.

In order to achieve the goal of the research, the necessary estimates have been made using the Pooled Mean Group method.in the period of 2015-2022. Health costs and good governance index have been analyzed as the main explanatory variables along with other variables affecting economic growth, using the idea of the Cobb-Douglas production function.

The results show that allocating more health expenditure alone is not enough to increase economic growth, and the logarithm of health expenditure in the short and long term has a relatively low coefficient on economic growth But considering the effect of good governance, the size of this coefficient is strengthened in both periods, which seems to be the low efficiency of health expenditures due to the low quality of governance related to health expenditures in the countries under review. This study shows the effective role of how governance affects effectiveness.

If the increase in health expenses is accompanied by good quality of governance, it will result in more economic growth. In other words, the quantity of healthcare costs is important, but the quality of the costs is more important. Focusing on the quality of spending increases economic growth.

The health of the banking system is extremely important for maintaining the stability of a society's economy, the monetary system, the interests of depositors, and public trust in the entire banking network. In addition, since a healthy and stable banking system can better resist shocks and play a stronger role in the stability of the financial system, it is necessary to identify effective variables and components and determine how they affect the recovery and restoration of the financial health of banks. Several factors affect the financial health of banks. Some of these factors are internal and under the control of the bank management, and based on their specific impact on the health of the bank, they can be considered positive or negative. With respect to this fact, in this study, the internal bank factors affecting the recovery and restoration of the financial health of some selected private banks in the Islamic Republic of Iran during the period of 2011-2021 were investigated using the panel data method and fixed effects. The results indicated that corporate governance, liquidity, age of the bank, and business model have a significant positive effect on the banking health index. On the other hand, bank size, financial leverage, interest-free assets, and financial risk have a significant negative effect on the banking health index.

The banking system Soundness is very important for maintaining economic, social and political stability and ensuring sustainable development at the national and international levels. Therefore, revealing the factors affecting the health of banks and considering these factors in the design of economic policies is important. Several factors affect the financial health of the banking system at the company level and the country level. which have a different effect depending on the type and nature. In this regard, studies show that the performance and banking system Soundness is largely dependent on the environmental conditions of the macroeconomic environment with contradictory influence. According to this issue, in this study, the uncertain effect of macroeconomic variables and bank-specific factors on the health of the banking system of the Islamic Republic of Iran during the period 2001-2021 was investigated using the panel data method and fixed effects And with the benefit of Eviews software.The results of the survey have shown that corporate governance, economic growth, bank size and quality of supervision have a negative and significant effect on the financial Soundness index of the banking system. In contrast, the uncertainty of macroeconomic variables and banking competition have a positive and significant effect on the financial Soundness index of the banking system.

Iran has the second largest gas reserves in the world, after Russia, and the fourth oil reserves in the world, after Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Canada, and it is possible for the country to access energy for households and the economic activities (Energy Balance Sheet, 2019). Price stabilization policies have always been applied, which has caused the government to spend a huge annual subsidy on energy consumption in different sectors of Iran; in 2021, according to the report of the International Energy Agency of Iran, it would amount to 58 billion dollars (that of the world is 531 billion dollars). It has paid subsidies to all types of energy carriers, which ranks Iran second after Russia in terms of the share of subsidies in the world's total energy subsidies (11%). The rate of Iran's energy consumption was on the rise during the years 2011-2012, and this indicator was higher in the industry sector than in the whole economy. From 2011 to 2012, the energy coefficient for the whole economy was 2.3 and for the industry sector was 1.7. This was less than one for advanced countries. Therefore, in total, this volume of subsidies and energy consumption in the economy and especially the industry sector has led to development. It has not been economical and the efficiency of energy use decreases in Iran every year. Subsidies affect macroeconomic and social variables such as inflation, budget deficit, market power, business environment, and class gap. Due to its high volume, examining the economic and social effects of subsidies is of great importance. Since it is not possible to refer to all its dimensions in one study, this article only aims at the effect of energy subsidies on market power in the industrial sector. The impact of subsidies on market power may lead to a positive or negative correlation between subsidies and market power, and there are different views on this issue. Some believe that subsidies increase market power because subsidies provide companies with more finance or lead to cost reduction, so there is a positive relationship between subsidy and market power. To estimate the subsidy impact, panel data models were used. The study period is 2002-2019 at the level of four-digit ISIC codes of industries with 10 workers and more. The current research seeks to answer the following key questions: Do energy subsidies have a positive or negative effect on the market power of the country's industries? What is the impact of energy subsidies on the country's industries?

External resources (i.e. government subsidies) increase access to internal resources. In this case, a firm can protect itself from uncertainty and adverse environmental risks or reduce financial barriers, thus creating an advantage. It improves the performance of the company. In this regard, the first hypothesis is ‘government subsidies have a positive relationship with company performance’.However, inefficient allocation of resources reduces or even reverses the positive outcomes of resource accumulation. One of the major potential costs of government subsidies is the elimination of their positive effects. Research has found that government subsidies lead to overinvestment by firms, thereby harming firm performance. It is also shown that government subsidies provide firms with excess resources, leading to inefficient and complacent management, waste of resources, and stagnation in financial performance. The second hypothesis is ‘government subsidies have a negative relationship with company performance’.

Iran is one of the countries with the highest energy subsidy payments in the world, and subsidies have impacts on all the economic and social aspects of the society. The studies conducted by Dai Li, Chu and Wang, and Chen and Yu showed that the effect of subsidy on market power is negative. Also, in Akhani's study, the relationship between subsidy and market power was negative. This study uses the panel data method and productivity variables, the Herfindahl index, wages, and capital stock as independent variables and the Lerner index as market power (2002-2019). The estimated model is Yu and Wang's model. The results show that the relationship between subsidy and market power is negative, which is consistent with previous studies. One of the reasons for the negative relationship between subsidy and market power is the lack of innovation and creativity by companies due to cheap access to funds. They are not willing to try to gain the energy market, and there is a kind of laziness that prevails in the companies. The statistics on the intensity of energy consumption confirm this issue. In general, the energy subsidy in Iran in the industry sector did not lead to the creation of market power but increased inefficiency. Moreover, industries are not inclined to modernize and use old and energy-consuming technology.

Conclusions and policy implications:

 Considering the positive impact of productivity and market power, the government should provide appropriate policies to support the increase of productivity in companies. Due to the influence of the market share and market power of the government through anti-trust policies, monopolies should be prevented. This study showed that subsidies have a negative effect on market power. This is because the fair distribution of energy subsidies in the country would deter the easy access of companies to subsidies. So, if the government likes subsidies not to lead to monopoly or to the increase of the power of companies, it should provide conditions for the accessibility of subsidies for all companies.

The purpose of this research is to investigate the asymmetric evaluation of the high-frequency valuation of the company listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange using the MS-EGARCH model. For this purpose, the 5-minute data of Tehran Stock Exchange was used in the period of 2021-2022. Based on the results of the research, it was determined that the variable trend of stock exchange returns in non-linear mode (separation of period length into high and low regimes) is preferable to linear mode, and when the volatility of stock trading is small, the average return of the stock market changes, but the variance of the return changes. The stock market has no significant effect. Also, the results show the asymmetric effects of the effect of stock trading on the changes in stock exchange returns in the boom regime, and the fluctuations of stock trading in the average and high variance regime, in the state of increasing and decreasing stock trading, will have a different effect on the changes in stock exchange returns, and generally its positive effect It is smaller than its negative effects. As a result, it is suggested that the policy makers in the implementation of policies related to the capital market should be proportional to the regime in which the capital market is located, different policies and even if the policies are the same, the intensity of their implementation should be proportional to the characteristics of that regime in each regime.

Managers and investors always tend to predict the results of their decisions and investments based on expectations and existing conditions. Undoubtedly, for this purpose, they need a correct analysis of the current situation and predict future events. Therefore, the aim of the current research is to provide a dynamic model for predicting possible financial crises. In order to achieve the purpose of the research, first, by using the content analysis, 25 indicators were identified from the categories of macroeconomic indicators, industry factors, company characteristics, political, cultural, and behavioral events. Then, by using multivariable regression algorithm, smart ant colony algorithms and particle swarm optimization, and using the combined data of 173 companies accepted in Tehran Stock Exchange from 2010 to 2020, the proposed model was tested. The findings based on the regression method showed that some internal and external criteria had a significant impact on the financial crisis of companies. the findings showed that in terms of efficiency, the optimization method of ants is the most efficient in the problem of predicting the financial crisis. Finally, it was found that the information of independent variables can predict the financial crisis of companies. The findings of the research also show that up to five years before the financial crisis, it is possible to predict the financial crisis in companies with relatively high accuracy, but as the financial crisis subsides, due to the decrease in the clarity and accuracy of the financial sector forecasting indicators, the predictive ability of the model also decreases.

Good governance leads to the improvement of the quality of economic institutions and institutions, and this quality improvement, including in the field of health, affects the way of growth and development. The existence of institutional and structural problems of institutions, which is caused by weak governance, has a negative effect on the performance and effectiveness of institutions and institutions related to health costs. Therefore, the main goal of this article is to find an answer for how the institutional quality of economic actors affects the economic growth of selected Islamic countries in the field of health expenses. In this regard, the good governance index has been used as a substitute for institutional quality, and the idea of ​​the Cobb-Douglas production function has been used to estimate the research model using the heterogeneous dynamic panel data model by the pooled group average method in the time period of 2008-2022. The results show that health expenses have a relatively low impact on economic growth in the short and long term. Considering the interactive effect of institutional quality and health expenditures, the size of this coefficient is positive in both periods and it indicates that improving the quality of institutions related to health expenditures strengthens the effect of this expenditure on economic growth. Therefore, if increased health spending is accompanied by good institutional quality, it will result in greater economic growth. In other words, although the quantity of healthcare costs is important, the quality of the cost is more important. Focusing on the quality of spending increases economic growth.

Sustainable development through minimizing the negative externalities on the environment is one of the important topics of economic research in recent decades. The emission of carbon dioxide resulting from the combustion of fossil fuels in diverse sectors of the economy, which include industries, power stations, transportation, and even the household sector, as one of the externalities of human activities today, is known to be the cause of environmental destruction. This paper analyzes elements which affect the emission of carbon dioxide in MENA region countries, during 2004 to 2020 by expanding the spatial Green Solow model and using the dynamic spatial panel model (DSM). The results of the estimates imply that population growth, urbanization growth, the share of industry in the GDP and the degree of trade openness have a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions. However, no significant relationship was discovered between the two variables of democracy and physical investment with carbon dioxide emissions in the goal nation. On the other hand, the spatial correlation among sections was confirmed. In addition, the convergence of the factors affecting carbon dioxide emissions was confirmed in the investigation period, which means that nations have tried to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in the duration.

global warming and the greenhouse effect caused by the release of atmospheric pollutants and the subsequent threat to life on the planet have become one of the most important challenges facing governments and their economic decision makers. Emission of carbon dioxide from fossil fuels in industries plays a significant role in this pollution. Furthermore , in the countries that have sheltered the worn-out industries of the developed countries, the emission of carbon dioxide gas caused by the fuels used in the industry, inappropriate industrial infrastructure and high energy consumption are the main reasons that endanger the environmental conditions of these countries
this study has examined the effect of exchanges resulting from trade openness on carbon dioxide emissions in MENA countries during the period from 2004 to 2020. Meanwhile, by using spatial econometric techniques, it has paid attention to the mutual effect of countries on each other in the process of producing carbon dioxide gas. The results indicate the confirmation of the effect of spatial proximity and the positive effect of the degree of commercial openness on the emission of carbon dioxide in the studied countries.

This study goes beyond the the prevailing use of averaged data to investigate the hidden evidence of asymmetry due to the effect of monthly exchange rate fluctuations on Iran's quarterly GDP during the period 1380:1-1397-4. For this purpose, the regression model of Mixed Data with different asymmetric frequency (MIDAS model) is use, which allows time series variables with different frequencies (eg daily, weekly and monthly) to be put together in a regression.The results showed that the Mixed Data with different frequency Approach compared to the same frequency model of these changes is statistically stronger and provides a better fit, and also the Exchange rate fluctuations have asymmetric effects on Iran's GDP, And depending on the number of optimal lags and the sources of changes, production gives different responses to different positive and negative shocks, So that Iran's gdp In response to the negative fluctuations of the exchange rate showing a stronger immediate reaction and more lasting effects. ue to the existence of asymmetric effects of currency shocks on production, it is suggested that policy makers should not consider the absolute value of the effects of positive and negative currency policies to be the same in regulating currency policies in order to advance macroeconomic goals.

Especially since the end of the Cold War, economic sanctions have been increasingly used as an alternative to military action to exert economic pressure on countries for a broad range of objectives. Empirical evidence suggests that sanctions affect the economy of the target countries in various ways. These studies use different approaches examine the adverse effects of sanctions on economic variables such as GDP, production costs, capital formation, trade, government expenditures, exchange rate, private expenditures, and household welfare. Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran became subject to extensive economic sanctions, which have intensified in recent years. Given the dependence of Iranian economy on oil revenues, the oil sector has been one of the main targets of these sanctions. Banking sanctions have also been used as an attempt to prevent the transfer of oil revenues to Iran as part of “smart sanctions” against the country. Sanctions imposed on Iran’s oil exports can intensify fluctuations in macroeconomic variables by reducing foreign exchange earnings and restricting access to capital and intermediate goods, and impact household welfare by affecting relative prices as well as household income and consumption expenditure. Therefore, the present article examines the impact of oil export sanction on the welfare of households in Iran using Equivalent Variation (EV) criterion. Due to the capabilities of Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) models compared to single-equation models, a recursive dynamic CGE model has been used based on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) data of 2016. In order to study and compare welfare changes in different groups of urban and rural households, 70 percent reduction in oil exports has been simulated for the entire period under study. 

In this study, PEP-1-t, a recursive dynamic CGE model developed by Decaluwe et al. (2013), has been used to investigate the welfare effects of reduction in oil exports. This model is the result of the joint effort between the Partnership for Economic Policy (PEP) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) in the context of the African Growth and Development Policy Modeling Consortium (AGRODEP) project. PEP-1-t is a recursive dynamic model with a multi-sector, single-country framework containing a broad set of tax instruments and several categories of workers and capital. It is compatible with social accounting matrices that have the accounts required for the main categories and also has standard assumptions. In this model, labor, capital, and intermediate inputs are used in the production process. At the highest level of production, a Leontief production function is considered which combines intermediate inputs and added value to determine the level of activity. Labor and capital are also combined in a production function with Constant Elasticity of Substitution (CES). Each activity produces one or more commodities. The product is then converted into an export commodity and a market commodity using a Constant Elasticity of Transformation (CET) function. Consumers buy composite goods, which are either imported or produced domestically. The composite of imports and domestic production is determined by the Armington function, which is a CES function. The country in question is a “small country” that receives global export and import prices at a fixed level. By establishing factor market equilibrium, commodity market equilibrium, savings-investment equilibrium, domestic market equilibrium, and export market equilibrium, equilibrium is established in the whole system. This model has a set of simultaneous equations, many of which are nonlinear. In the present article, the impact of oil export sanction has been simulated following Farzanegan et al. (2015). Moreover, to study consumer behavior and calculate welfare changes based on the EV criterion, the Linear Expenditure System (LES) and the Stone-Geary utility function have been used, and EV criterion calculation codes have been incorporated into the model. Since the structure of the SAM as the database of this article should be consistent with the general equilibrium model used, a SAM has been developed for the year 2016. In addition to SAM, a number of behavioral parameters adopted from other studies have been used to solve the model. GAMS software has been used for calibration and simulation. 

Regarding the impact of oil export sanction on some macroeconomic variables, the results show that a decrease in oil exports leads to an increase in exchange rate and non-oil exports, as well as a decrease in domestic absorption, total imports and exports, and GDP. Regarding the impact of reduced oil exports on these macroeconomic variables, the results are consistent with Gharibnavaz and Waschik (2017), Farzanegan et al. (2015), Mohammadikhabbazan et al. (2015), Haqiqi and Bahalou (2013), and Haqiqi and Bahador (2015) who also used a CGE modeling approach. In addition, other studies such as Nakhli et al. (2020), Keshavarz Haddad et al. (2020), Kiumarthi et al. (2019), Tuzova and Qayum (2016), Marzban and Ostadzad (2015) and Siddig (2011) have shown the adverse effects of economic sanctions on key macroeconomic variables. As oil exports decrease, the income and consumption expenditures of urban and rural households decline over this period. The decrease in income and consumption expenditures of different groups of urban and rural households has an increasing trend. Also, the upper deciles of urban and rural households experience more decline in their income and expenditures. In addition, the income and expenditures of rural households are more affected than urban households. Calculating the EV as an indicator of household welfare in the studied period shows that the welfare of urban and rural households declines in all groups and the upper deciles experience more decline in welfare. Also, the decline in welfare of all rural household groups during the period is always more than urban households. In addition, with the continuation of the oil export sanction, the gap between the welfare decreasing of rural and urban households declines. Regarding the adverse welfare effects of oil export sanction, similar results have been reported in Farzanegan et al. (2015) and Mohammadikhabbazan et al. (2015) using a static CGE modeling approach, while more limited effects have been reported in Gharibnavaz and Waschik (2017) using the same approach. Marzban and Ostadzad (2015) have also shown the tangible effect of oil sanctions on social welfare by developing a generalized stochastic growth model. Cheptea and Gaigné (2020) and Siddig (2011) have also shown the negative effects of economic sanctions on the welfare of households in the target country. Eventually, sensitivity analysis to the key elasticities of the model demonstrates that by changing the initial elasticities individually and in combination, no significant change is observed, therefore, it confirms that the main results are robust. 

This article investigates the impact of oil export sanction on the welfare of urban and rural households in Iran. To this end, PEP-1-t, which is a recursive dynamic CGE model developed by Decaluwe et al. (2013), has been used based on the SAM data of 2016. Also, the EV criterion has been used to examine welfare changes in different groups of urban and rural households. Between 2012 and 2019, Iran’s crude oil exports have dropped by about 70 percent. Therefore, 70 percent reduction in oil exports has been applied to all periods in the model to simulate the sanction scenario. The results reveal that the reduction in oil exports leads to an increase in exchange rate and non-oil exports, as well as a decrease in domestic absorption, total imports and exports, and GDP. Our results show that with a reduction in oil exports, the income, consumption expenditures, and welfare of urban and rural households decrease, and this downward trend continues over the studied period. Moreover, in both urban and rural households, upper deciles experience more reduction in income, consumption expenditures, and welfare. In addition, the shock of reduced oil exports affects the income, consumption expenditures, and welfare of rural households more strongly than urban households. The results also indicate that although the welfare loss of all rural household groups is always higher than urban households during this period, the welfare gap between rural and urban households decreases as oil export sanction continues. Sensitivity analysis to the key elasticities confirms the robustness of the main results.

The present study intends to use the Mixed Data Sampling model (MIDAS) to investigate the effect of exchange rate changes on the variable of real production in Iran during the period 1397:1  to1380:4  that Provides implement a flexibility model whit  high descriptive power, including variables of varying frequency (eg daily, weekly and monthly) together in a regression.The results of this study show that the MIDAS model is statistically strong in identifying the asymmetric dynamic effects of the independent variable with higher freuency (exchange rate changes) on the dependent variable with lower frequency (GDP) compared to the same frequency model of these variables and shows asymmetry better.Also, based on the obtained results, the intensity of the impact of the momentum and the persistence of each momentum are different, so that the negative momentum of the exchange rate has more intense and lasting effects on Iran's GDP.

One of the most problematic issues in policymaking is the impact of government spending on its outcome. This paper collects extensive and unique data on government outlays and outcomes for various affairs for the period 1989-2019. Then this unique dataset is put to use to study the relationship between spending and outcome in panel data analyses. The fixed effect regression reveals that a one percent increase in spending on a chapter improves associated outcomes by 0,06 percent, however, the impact of two years lag is significant and about double the spontaneous effects. Nevertheless, the dynamic panel regression, by both Arrellano-Bond and Blundell-Bond approaches, shows that the lag in outcome is large, and it explains a large portion of dynamics. Moreover, the spontaneous impact of spending on the outcome is 0.01-0,03 percent. Therefore, to improve the outcome of spending, the government must plan for long-term expenditure instead of discretionary outlays.

Financial instability can lead to failure in financial markets and create macroeconomic costs. Therefore, by examining this harmful event, we can achieve conditions of economic stability and security. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the financial instability of Middle Eastern countries during the years 2000 to 2019 in a dynamic model and using a two-stage system of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM). To reach this goal, the index of instability and financial development was created on the basis of the influential variables of the banking sector and the stock market in two groups of oil exporting and non-exporting countries in the region. The estimation results show the different effects of variables on financial instability in exporting and non-exporting countries. Most countries in the region are oil exporters and the results of the estimate confirm the negative and significant impact of financial development and economic growth on financial instability. Also, in order to create a more comprehensive view, the control variables of the terms of trade, government spending and inflation have been used in the model. The first lag of financial instability and inflation variable have positive and significant effects and the terms of trade and government spending have negative and significant effects on financial instability. In oil non-exporting countries, due to less financial instability than exporting countries, the relationship between a number of variables and financial instability was not significant and different results were obtained. It is recommended that policy makers reduce financial instability by controlling prices and directing liquidity and credits to production, reforming the level and composition of government spending, and improving trade relations.