احمدعزتی شورگلی

The present study aims to examine the impact of different types of income (oil and tax) and government expenditure (current and construction) shocks on inflation under varying inflationary conditions. To achieve this objective, quarterly data from the Iranian economy from 1369 to 1399 was utilized, and a regime switching structural vector autoregression model based on stochastic volatility was employed to analyze. In this approach, inflation was considered as a regime variable, and a threshold value of 21% was estimated for each season. Subsequently, regime switching impulse response functions were employed to explore the effects of shocks in oil and tax income, current and construction expenditures, exchange rate, liquidity, and GDP growth on inflation. The findings of the STVAR-SV model employed in this study demonstrated that the impact of shocks in government revenues (oil and tax) and expenditures (current and construction) on inflation is much stronger in the high inflation regime (inflation above 21% in each season) compared to the low inflation regime (inflation below 21% in each season). Notably, the effect of shocks in government construction expenditures and oil revenues is significant solely in the high inflation regime, while being nonsignificant in the low inflation regime. Conversely, shocks in current government expenditures and tax revenues have a positive and significant effect on inflation in both inflationary regimes.

Some researchers and economists believe in the inflationary effects of globalization, while others argue the opposite or consider the economic conditions of countries as a crucial factor in how globalization impacts inflation. This study employs a time-varying nonparametric panel data model and considering the de facto and de jure effects of the KOF index. The main objective is to examine the various effects of globalization on inflation in high-income countries (28 countries) and middle-income countries (36 countries) using a time-varying approach. The model estimation results indicate that economic globalization, in terms of trade policies and regulations (de jure), has not significantly influenced the consumer price index (CPI) in high-income countries during most of the years under review. Additionally, economic globalization from aspect de facto has generally led to a reduction in prices in these countries over most years. In contrast, in middle-income countries, economic globalization in terms of trade development contributed (de facto) to a decrease in prices during the 1980s and 1990s, but this deflationary effect gradually diminished, almost disappearing by 2020. Furthermore, economic globalization in terms of trade policies and regulations (de jure) has had both positive and negative impacts on the CPI in these countries in different years.

The present study predicts the effect of connecting the transaction of card readers to the tax affairs system on the increase in the collection of the tax affairs organization of West Azarbaijan province in 2022. The present study by forecasting the tax revenues of West Azarbaijan province based on the Data up to March 1400 has investigated this issue that if the tax revenues of West Azarbaijan province had the same trend as the previous years and the card readers was not connected The tax affairs system how much did this organization collect?. In fact, the difference between this forecast and its actual amount shows that by connecting the card readers to the tax affairs system, the collection amount of this organization has increased to what extent. For this purpose, the present study using the monthly data of the tax revenues of West Azarbaijan province during the years 2005 to 2022 and by applying three models of state space, Markov Switching and Arima models showed that the provincial tax based on the transaction performance of the card reader device has increased the percentage of realization of total tax revenues of West Azarbaijan province in 2022 by almost 32%. Also, the effect of this plan on increasing the percentage of corporate tax, personal income tax, wealth tax and indirect tax of West Azerbaijan province in 2022 was equal to 29, 11, 6 and 65% respectively. On the other hand, according to the forecast of the total tax revenues of West Azerbaijan province in 2023, It is expected that they will be realized Minimum 117 and maximum 130 percent of the approved income.

Every economic and financial variable has a series of fundamental variables that have a significant impact on its price. In fact, researchers consider price deviations in financial assets as pricing bubbles. In this regard, the present research has investigated the price bubble in the exchange rate in Iran's economy by considering two important fundamental variables of the exchange rate, i.e. Inflation and liquidity growth. Therefore, the generalized Dickey-Fuller test based on the Markov rotation model and seasonal data of the Iranian economy has been used during the period of 1990-2021. For this purpose, first, the generalized Dickey-Fuller test was specified in the form of a Markov switching model for the exchange rate, and then, based on the Monte Carlo method, estimated coefficients and t-statistics were used to investigate the stationary or price bubble in the exchange rate. The results showed that there is a possibility of a price bubble in the regime of fluctuating exchange rates. Therefore, in order to ensure this issue, the fundamental variables of the exchange rate were specified in the form of a Markov switching model in order to determine whether the fluctuations and jumps observed in the exchange rate are due to a price bubble in the exchange rate or due to a natural reaction to changes in inflation and Liquidity growth.

Fiscal multiplier is one of the most important factors which governments and economic policymakers rely on to conduct fiscal policy. This multiplier, which shows the effectiveness of fiscal policy in stimulating domestic production and economic stabilization, has always been a contentious issue among economists and researchers, because there is no theoretical agreement on the size of this coefficient. Therefore, several researchers have tried to empirically estimate the Fiscal multiplier. This effort, which has doubled after the global crisis of 2007-2008 due to the significant role of this policy tool in reducing crises, is the main purpose of this study. This paper estimates the instantaneous and cumulative Fiscal multiplier using quarterly data of Iran economy during 1990 to 2017, using a non-linear threshold auto-regressive model. The results of TAR test and TVECM test showed that the integration of some variables used in the research is nonlinear. Similarly, the Co-integration relationship between the variables is nonlinear. Also estimation of TVAR model and simulated nonlinear impact response functions showed that the multiplier of government expenditures during the recession is greater than the boom period. This is opposite for tax. Also the largest multiplier among the three fiscal policy instruments related to current government expenditures.

In the macroeconomics and international economics literature, the rate of change in domestic prices as a result of exchange rate changes is known as the degree of exchange rate pass-through. This is important because the shocks to the economy are transmitted from the exchange rate channel to the relative prices of the economy. In addition, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is affected by microeconomic and macroeconomic variables, so that the degree of exchange rate pass-through will change along with their changes. Therefore, in the present study, the impact of exchange rate on domestic prices is estimated by using the Time-varying Parameter Factor Augmented Structural VAR with Stochastic Volatility (TVP-SFAVAR-SV) and applying seasonal data from 1990 to 2018. First, the latent variable of the amount of speculative activities in the Iranian economy is modeled and estimated. The results show that the highest speculation belongs to the periods 1994 -1996, 1998-1999 and 2011- 2012. Also, the shock to the speculative activities variable in the period under study has led to an increase in inflation. The estimated exchange rate pass-through coefficient has not been constant. Historical variance decomposition analysis of exchange rate pass-through in the presence of the effective factors also shows that the almost all exchange rate fluctuations can be explained by inflation and exchange rate fluctuations, and production gaps.

The purpose of this study is to evaluate and assess the degree of exchange rate pass-through in countries with medium and high per capita income. To this end, data from 59 different countries (including 39 countries with average per capita income and 20 countries with high per capita income) have been used over the period 1980 to 2018. The results of the GMM model show that the degree of exchange rate pass-through in countries with medium and high per capita income is 14% and 16%, respectively. As the per capita GDP increases, the degree of exchange rate pass-through increases. Also, the results of the nonparametric panel model with time-varying parameters show that the degree of exchange rate pass-through vary over time in both groups of countries. And in the 1980s, the degree of the exchange rate pass-through was at its highest level. In such a way that in countries with medium per capita income after the 1980s, the degree of exchange rate pass-through declines until 2005, and after 2005  until 2018, the rate of exchange rate pass-through again increased. However, in countries with high per capita incomes, the rate of exchange rate pass-through during 1980 to 1993 had an increasing trend, but after1993 the rate of exchange rate pass-through has declined almost continuously until 2018.

Over the past two centuries, the role of government and the composition of government spending have changed in most countries of the world. Theoretically, there is no consensus among economists about the size of the state and the degree of state interference in the economy. On the one hand, one can observe classics and market's proponents who believe in a small government and little interference in the economy, and on the other hand socialists and Keynes believe in a lot of interference and a large government. This study, using data during 1967-2016 and Using nonlinear unit root test of caner and Hansen 2001, the nonlinear Co-integration of Enders and Siklos 2001 and Hansen's threshold regression model and based on the study of Annaman (2004), aimed to estimate the range of government optimal size for the Iranian economy by estimating a three-regime Non-linear threshold regression model. The results of this study show that the optimal size of the government in terms of current government expenditure (the ratio of current government expenditure to GDP) in the Iranian economy ranges from 10.12 to 18.25% and the optimal size of the government in terms of capital government expenditure (the ratio of capital government expenditure to GDP) in the Iranian economy is around 9.05 to 4.32%. Also, the degree of integration and co-integration of the variables follows a nonlinear threshold autoregressive process. As such that In the first place, some of the economic variables in Iran, according to the situation, have different degree of integration. Also Shrinking shocks, in comparison with increasing shocks create further deviations in the long run trend of the economic growth.

With regard to the role of fiscal policy in reducing the financial crises, determining the magnitude of the fiscal policy multiplier after the 2007-2008 global crisis became one of the most challenging issues in the field of fiscal policy. In general, the magnitude of the fiscal policy multiplier is estimated larger than one according to the Keynesian viewpoint and smaller than one based on neoclassical viewpoint. The difference in the magnitude of the multiplier comes from the fact that economists believe that the fiscal policy multiplier is influenced by the degree of economic openness, the exchange rate regime, the way monetary policy is applied and the business cycle. Differences about the magnitude of the fiscal policy multiplier among schools of economic thought are evident in both theoretical and empirical dimensions. In this regard, this paper tries to estimate fiscal policy multiplier using structural vector autoregressive model (Blanchard and Peroti, 2002 method and Markov switching approach (Hall, 2009) using the seasonal data for Iran during the period (1990: 1-2017:3). The results of the structural vector autoregressive model showed that the instantaneous multiplier, 10-quarter cumulative multiplier, and the 20-quarter cumulative multiplier of the government expenditure were equal to 0.281, 0.304, and 0.445, respectively. In addition, the corresponding multipliers for taxes were -0. 079, - 0.107 and - 0.171, respectively. Since the fiscal policy multiplier varies based on the economic conditions, the results of the nonlinear Markov switching model showed that the government expenditure multiplier during the recession is 0.828 and it is larger than the same coefficient during the boom period (0.108), on one hand. On the other hand, the tax multiplier during the boom period (-0.194) is larger than its value during the period of recession (-0.092 ).

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of positive and negative shocks of exchange rate on domestic prices using seasonal data for Iran during (1969-1396: 4) and applying the Nonlinear Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag( NARDL) model to analyze the asymmetric exchange rate pass-through to domestic prices considering the depreciation and appreciation of the national currency. The results of the NARDL model show that positive and negative exchange rate shocks have asymmetric effects on price indices in the Iranian economy, so that in the long run negative exchange rate shocks are unable to influence all four price indices, but positive exchange rate shocks have a positive and significant impact on the three indices (consumer price index, producer price index and import price index) in the long run, but it has no significant effect on export price index. Also, in the short run, positive shocks have a positive and significant impact on consumer, import and export price indices, but negative shocks in the short run have no significant effect on these indicators. The producer price index also responds positively to both positive and negative shocks in the short run, so that negative shocks have a greater impact on producer price index (in the short run) than positive shocks.

Giavazzi and Pagano 1996 and Perotti 1999 noted that the impact of fiscal policy on the consumption of the private sector varies in different economic conditions, and the most important factors influencing the consumption of the private sector can be named as the state of the economy in terms of recession or boom, as well as the amount of government debt. After the above-mentioned studies, the hypothesis of nonlinear fiscal policy effect on the private consumption was examined in different aspects. . This study was also aimed at evaluating the subject matter of the study about the Keynesian or non-Keynesian nature of the fiscal policy using seasonal data for the Iranian economy during 1369-1395. In order to study the subject, non-linear integration and co-integration tests (STAR), nonlinear causality test (TGC) and asymmetric threshold vector autoregressive model have been used. The results of integration, co-integration and nonlinear causality tests showed that the co-integration and causality relationship of the variables follow a nonlinear process and the degree of integration of some of the variables used also has a nonlinear process. On the other hand, the results of the asymmetric threshold vector auto regression model showed that the taxes and the current government expenditures in the Iranian economy have Keynesian nature. But the government's current spending shows a non-Keynesian nature during the recession and has a Keynesian's nature during boom. Also, in terms of positive, negative, small and large shocks, it was also found that asymmetry exist in how fiscal policy shocks affect the consumption of the private sector during business cycles.

The goal of this study is analyzing the effects of the positive and negative monetary shocks on production. Therefore, by using the seasonal data during 1990-2017, and the bounds tests, Markov’s switching model, and autoregressive models with distributive lags to test the new Keynesian theory about the asymmetric effect of shocks on production. Thus, by extending a Markov equation for growth of liquidity, positive, negative, big and small shocks were extracted. Then, using an ARDL model, the effects of small and big shocks on economic growth were analyzed. The results have shown that in the long run, both Small and Large monetary shocks (whether Positive or negative) are incapable of affecting production. This means that money is neutral in the long run. But in the short run, monetary shocks affect the production, where, the impact of negative shocks is far greater than the effect of positive shocks. With considering the size of shocks, the effect of small negative shocks and large negative shocks is more than the effect of small positive shocks and large positive shocks. On the other hand, there is an asymmetry between small and big money shocks, because small positive and negative shocks have greater effects than big positive and negative shocks on production, respectively.

Barro (1990) by adding government spending into the growth models showed that the amount of government activities have a positive impact on economic growth, But if government spending is increased over a certain size, government activities will have a negative impact on economic growth. In this direction, this paper by using theoretical Barro growth model and an empirical model for Iranian economy tries to investigate the impact of current and capital government expenditure on output growth using ARDL approach and state-space models applying quarterly data during 1967-2014. First, using Lumsdaine-Papell (1997) unit root test and Gregory-Hansen (1996) and Saikkonen and Lutkepohl (2002) cointegration test we determine the degree of integration and cointegration of the variables. The results indicate that there are structural breaks in the variables under study and these breaks affect the relationship between variables. Then we use ARDL model, considering structural breaks, to determine threshold level for current government expenditure which is 15.2 percent and for capital government expenditure which is 8.2 percent of GDP per head. Regarding Lucas theoretical critique and empirical structural breaks in the Iranian economy, we use state space model to investigate relationship between growth and the government size and the results indicate that coefficients are not stable during time and they behave differently regarding the source of the shock.

The dominant view, regarding the relationship between globalization and economic inequality which is known as Washington Consensus, believes that globalization reduces income inequality. Heckscher-Ohlin model asserts that countries engaged in trade will export a commodity which uses their abundant factor of production. Moreover, based on Stolper-Samuelson theorem removing tariff and trade barriers will reduce pay differential between factors of production within and between countries and the final result is the reduction in income-inequality within and among countries. Recent empirical results confirm that globalization alongside its positive effects leads to the increase in income inequality. This paper tries to study the nonlinear relationship between globalization and income inequality using data from 2002 till 2013 for 71 countries and applying Panel Smooth Transition regression model by choosing GDP per capita and globalization index as transition variables to test the inverted U Kuznets curve on the one hand and to study the U curve on the other. This paper shows that if wechoose real per capita income as a transition variable then we cannotreject the inverted-U Kuznets curve but if we choose globalizationindex as a transition variable then freer world result in lessinequality initially but higher inequality appears gradually.

One of the main subjects for all policy-makers at the macroeconomic level is to investigate the behaviour of economic variables in the short-run and also in the long-run as a result of a change in policy parameters. Monetary policy parameters are among the main policy parameters which are studied in this paper. One of the main subjects in the literature of theoretical economics is to study the channels through which monetary policy and monetary-policy-shocks affect the real variables.
Theoretical Framework
There is a proposition in macroeconomics, which dates back to David Hume literature, and says money is neutral. Neutrality of money means that changing the stock of money affects only nominal variables such as prices, wages, and exchange rates while it has no effects on real variables like real GDP, and real consumption and employment. Neutrality of money implies that the central bank will not create more jobs by printing money. It also means that a change in the money supply will not affect the size of real GDP in the economy. Almost all economists around the world agree that neutrality of money holds in the long run. However, things are much more complicated in the short-run and there is no agreement on this between economists. Classical economists introduced neutrality of money based on classical dichotomy and their main focus was on long-run. Keynes (1936) rejected neutrality of money and introduced demand-side management to stabilize economy. Assuming this, Keynes believed that money is not neutral in the short-run. Monetarists led by Milton Friedman, by assuming adaptive expectation and distinguishing two versions of Philips Curve, one for the short-run and the other for the long-run, claim that money is not neutral in the short-run because economic agents confused by money illusion always respond to changes in money supply with a delay which is the source of mistake for economic agents and a base for any successful demand-side management policy in the short-run. New classical economists led by Robert Lucas, by assuming rational expectation and accepting the equal information sharing among all economic agents and removing the information advantage for the central bank, returned to the classical world of neutrality of money. However, they believe that only unexpected monetary policy will affect the real variables but central bank's ability to use countercyclical stabilizing monetary policy is limited because the central bank has no advantageous information over other economic agents, and also, it will not always be able to deceive people to achieve its goals (Maccallum, 2004). New Keynesian economists by searching microeconomic foundations for old Keynesian theories believe that monetary policy is not neutral but the impact of monetary policy during business cycles are asymmetric (see Ball & Romer, 1989, 1990; Ball & Mankiw, 1994a, 1994b; Cover, 1992; Ravn & Sola, 2004).
Neutrality of money has been a main research question in the last century. This paper studies monetary neutrality and asymmetric response of the economy to monetary-shocks using quarterly data during 1990:2-2014:4 in Iran and applying Bounds testing approach (Pesaran et al., 2001) and Hodrik-Prescott filter (Hodrik & Prescott, 1997) within ARDL framework.
The results show that money is neutral in affecting the output growth in the long-run but it affects output growth in the short-run in the economy of Iran. Moreover, Hodrick-Prescott filter was used to separate positive and negative monetary shocks and to draw business cycles for the Iranian economy. The results confirm that the monetary-policy-shocks have asymmetric impact on output. The results also show that the monetary-policy-shocks have asymmetric impact on output during business cycles.
Conclusion and Suggestions
The general conclusion is that the monetarist view which says that money is neutral cannot be rejected in the long-run for the economy of Iran. Therefore, the role of money in the economy is consistent with the monetarist view. In addition, the New-Keynesian view that concentrates on asymmetric effects of monetary shocks on real GDP during business cycles cannot be rejected. Therefore, the impact of monetary policy and monetary shocks during business cycles on the GDP are asymmetric for the economy of Iran. Based on our results, we suggest that the central bank should be more aware of these asymmetric effects of monetary policy and monetary shocks on the economy of Iran and consider them in any policy package for a better and more successful monetary policy.

A number of economists argue that the capital expenditure has a positive impact and the current expenditure has negative impact on output while others believe that the government expenditure, regardless of being current or capital spending, has a negative impact on the economy. In this direction, this paper tries to investigate the impact of current and capital government expenditure on output using ARDL approach with annual data for the Iranian economy during 1346-1393. The results indicate that in the short-run both current and capital expenditure, with one delay, have a significant negative impact on GDP while in the long-run both current and capital government have a significant positive impact on GDP. We also show that the size of the estimated parameter of the capital expenditure is twice larger than the size of the estimated parameter of the current expenditure. Using Lumsdaine-Papell test, we show that there is a structural break in the Iranian economy in 1352 (at that time the first oil-shock happened and the oil revenue increased and as a result both government expenditure and inflation increased). In order to accommodate this break we add a dummy variable to the model and we also show that when both current and capital spendings are accompanied by inflation will have a negative impact on output.

Government expenditures are powerful fiscal policy instruments for the government which might lead to economic growth.However, many economists and researchers believe that fiscal policy might have different effects on the economy in different economic situations, namely during the inflationary condition and business cycles. This study applies a Markov switching model to investigate the nonlinearity relationship between inflation and government expenditures using the seasonal data for Iran during the period 1990-2017.According to the Markov switching model, the seasonal inflationary environment (inflationary regimes) was extracted in Iranian economy which implies that seasonal inflation has three different regimes in Iranian economy while zero regime has low mean for inflation; first regime has medium mean for inflation and second regime has the highest inflation in Iranian economy. Then, we specified the research models and made the government's current and capital expenditures dependent on three inflationary regimes. The results indicate that the effect of government’s current and capital expenditures on inflation is negative and significant in zero and first regime, but the effect of these variables on second regime is positive and significant

With the current speed of globalization, economic relations among countries have gained special daily attention. Continuing this great global transformation requires a safe and relaxed atmosphere. If a country aims to provide the welfare of the people and also to have a sound economic system, economic ethics is an essential condition. Human society usually has been grappling with extremism. Before the economics become like a current modern science, the economics was taught as a branch of ethics. But then gradually distanced from morality, as many experts tried to completely separate economics from morality and religion that created a great deal of loss for human society. Gradually, some economists such as Keynes, Robinson, Sraffa, Myrdal, Schumpeter and Hayek criticized the separation of economics from morality.That is why in recent decades, a new trend in Europe and America was created toward ethics and this must be good thing. But there are fears that a new orientation will be more towards profit-seeking ethics. The reason is clear, the system of liberal capitalism and communism do not have a correct interpretation of human-kind and his true perfection. While broad economic teachings of Islam is mixed with moral values from the beginning. Given that one of the main problems of the current economics in the modern world, is the ethical problems within these economic systems and considering that the foundation of Islamic economics is based on the moral and religious laws and rulings, therefore, it is essential to challenge both above-mentioned ethical problems within the Islamic economic system. It should be mentioned, that the methodology used in this article is based on applying the descriptive method.

This paper examines the relationship between control of corruption and globalization (with various aspects) on economic growth in countries with high per capita income، middle per capita income، and low per capita income over the period (2002-2010) using panel data from113 different countries. According to the results of the various models، there is an inverted U relationship between control of corruption and economic growth. Moreover، the relationship between economic globalization and economic growth in countries with low per capita income is negative and significant. Also، social globalization in these countries has a negative impact on economic growth. However، overall index of globalization and political globalization has a positive impact on economic growth in these countries. Furthermore، in countries with high per capita income and middle per capita income، the impact of the three indicators of globalization (economic، social and political) and the overall index of globalization on economic growth is positive and significant.

This paper studies the relationship between economic growth and government size of Iran using ARDL and Bounds Test Approach during 1967-2013. Opposite to other studies which concentrate on accepting or rejecting the Army Curve (an inverted U shape or quadratic curve that relates government expenditures and GDP growth) in Iran, the results of this paper show that GDP growth and government expenditures have cubic relationship. This functional form, which has been introduced by Anaman (2004) for the first time, shows that the relation between economic growth and government size are negative for low and high level of government size both in the short-run and long-run while the relationship between economic growth and government size are positive for medium level of government expenditures both in the short-run and long-run.