فهرست مطالب جهان گیر بیابانی

In recent years, researchers have analyzed migration flows using several experimental methods. This research has considered economic factors (per capita GDP, unemployment rate, and poverty intensity) and environmental factors (drought index (CI)) affecting internal migration in 31 provinces of Iran during 2011-2016. The results of descriptive statistics are displayed in the ArcMap software. Moreover, considering that the location dimension has been confirmed in statistical data on internal migration and explanatory variables based on Moran's I test and in spatial models according to rho and lambda statistics, after testing different spatial models, the SEM spatial model was chosen to examine the research model. For this purpose, GeoDa and Stata software were used. The results of the spatial regression of the cross-sectional data showed that the economic indicators of GDP per capita, unemployment, and poverty intensity have a statistically significant effect on net migration in the provinces of the country. Unemployment and poverty have a negative effect, and income (gross domestic product per capita) positively affects net migration in the provinces. These results are consistent with the economic motives proposed in neoclassical theories and relative deprivation theory in internal migration. Additionally, increasing CI (avoidance of drought) as an environmental factor has positively and significantly affected net migration in the provinces. By combining this result with descriptive statistics, it can be stated that migration is one of several potential strategies for households to deal with environmental changes (drought).

Being happy and satisfied with life is one of the most important goals of human societies. In recent decades, the concept of happiness has been considered as one of the most important measures of better living and well-being in the economy. Due to the great impact that happiness has on the dynamism and mobility of society and as a result increase efficiency and productivity and ultimately economic growth and development, recognizing and analyzing the factors' affecting happiness has become particularly important. Since the advent of the happiness economic in the 1970s, several studies have examined the relationship between different economic factors on happiness. One of the economic variables whose changes can affect the level of happiness of society is inflation. Inflation is unpleasant for people and reduces people's happiness. Inflation is one of the harmful economic phenomena that imposes high economic and social costs on societies. But one of the main and most important economic losses due to inflation is the uncertainty of its amount in future periods. Inflationary uncertainty is a situation in which economic agents are uncertain about their future inflation decisions. Given that uncertainties have become an integral part of the economic and also due to the destructive effects of these uncertainties on the economic and economic activities and ultimately on the happiness and well-being of society, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of inflation uncertainty on happiness. The relationship between inflation uncertainty and happiness is examined for the first time. In the current research, 100 countries according to the latest classification of countries by the World Bank based on the income level of the countries, have been selected in the period from 2005 to 2021. They are grouped into two groups of countries with low income and lower middle income (developing countries) and the group of countries with upper middle income and high income (developed countries), and the relationship between inflation uncertainty and happiness has been investigated for all three categories of countries (100 selected countries and two income groups) using the panel data regression approach. Inflation uncertainty in this study was estimated using the variance model of autoregressive conditional heterogeneity (ARCH). Measures of happiness for the countries studied are extracted from the World Happiness Report. In addition to the inflation uncertainty variable, the relationship between other economic factors such as per capita income, income inequality, inflation, unemployment, health expenditures and government expenditures with happiness has also been examined. For 100 countries: Based on the regression results of the happiness model, inflation uncertainty has a negative effect on happiness and therefore the research hypothesis is confirmed. For one percent increase in inflation uncertainty, happiness decreases by about 0.002 percent. The results show that all explanatory variables in this research have the expected effects on happiness. The per capita income has a positive and significant relationship with happiness, so that a one percent increase in percapita income increases happiness by 0.07 percent. Inflation has a negative effect on happiness, but what is important according to the results of the happiness model estimation in this research is that both inflation and inflation uncertainty decrease happiness, but inflation uncertainty decreases happiness more. Unemployment and Income inequality have a negative effect on happiness. The health expenditure and the government expenditure variables have a positive effect on happiness.For low income-lower middle income (developing) and upper middle income-high income (developed) countries: The results show that inflation uncertainty has a negative effect on happiness in both groups of countries. The inflation uncertainty coefficient in the group of countries with upper middle income and high income is 0.22, which is higher than the other group (0.002). In other words, inflation uncertainty reduces happiness much more in these countries. Per capita income in this group of countries, with a coefficient of 0.14, has a more positive effect on happiness than the other group (0.08). Also the coefficients of the three variables of inflation, income inequality and unemployment are larger in this group compared to the other group, and therefore the effect of these variables in reducing happiness is greater. On the other hand, the two variables of health expenditure and government expenditure increase happiness more in the group of developing countries. Studies in the field of economics of happiness, due to the significant importance of happiness as one of the influential factors in the economic growth and development of countries, have had a significant growing trend since the 1970s. Recognizing and analyzing the factors that affect happiness has been the main goal of most happiness research. The efforts of economists to evaluate economic factors affecting happiness has led to valuable findings that have led to major changes in the economic growth and development policies of countries, which the world happiness report clearly reports every year. Comparing the results in two groups of countries in this study shows that, percapita income has shown the strongest positive effect on happiness, especially in the group of developed countries. inflation, income inequality and unemployment have caused a greater decrease in happiness in this group, which has the most negative effect related to unemployment, followed by income inequality and inflation. However, health and government expenditures in the other group have a greater effect on increasing happiness, which shows the importance of health, nutrition, and public expenditures to improve people's happiness.One of the main and most important economic losses caused by inflation is the uncertainty of its amount in future periods. Uncertainty about the future inflation rate creates instability in prices, and through this channel, it constantly causes changes in economic decisions. Inflation reduces people's happiness, but the uncertainty of future inflation reduces their happiness even more (In both groups of countries). In line with sustainable economic growth and development, it is suggested that countries should increase people's confidence regarding the stability of prices and inflation in the future with long-term planning and increase people's happiness by trying to distribute income fairly and paying special attention to health and employment.

This study examines the monetary policy rule of the Central Bank of Iran regarding exchange rate policy and monetary base. Since the rule of monetary policy is flexible to the economic conditions and the regime governing policy variables, the Markov regime transmission approach has been used to derive the rule of monetary policy in the period 1384:1-1397:1. The results show that the output gap in the low regimes of exchange rate has a positive and significant effect and in the high regimes has a negative and significant effect, and the inflation gap in the high exchange rate regime has a positive and significant effect and in the low exchange rate regime the exchange rate does not have a significant effect. On the low regimes of exchange rate, the government's budget deficit has a positive and significant effect and does not have a significant effect on the high regimes. Also, the output gap has a positive and significant effect in the low and high levels of its value. Monetary regime, and the inflation gap in the high levels of monetary base has a negative and significant effect, and in the lower regimes it has a positive and significant effect. Based on these results, it is recommended that the central bank pay attention to monetary and exchange rate behavioral regimes in implementing foreign exchange and monetary policies and adopt appropriate monetary and exchange rate policies in each regime, depending on the circumstances.

In recent decades, the Iranian housing rental market has seen a different picture with the increase in land prices and housing rental rates, so the growth rate of rents has been slightly beyond the increase in housing prices. Therefore, the present article examines the effect of land prices on housing rental rates in the provinces of Iran, from 2011-2021. In this study, the spatial econometrics model has been used to investigate the effects of residential land price overflow on rents, which shows the effects of spatial overflow on different geographical areas. Findings from the present study indicate that the price of residential land, human development index, and population density have a significant effect on the rental rate of housing in the provinces of the country, also the price of residential land and human development index in addition to being effective on the rental rate of housing has positive and significant overflow effects among provinces.

If happiness is a good feature of society and development is considered as a gradual movement towards good society, happiness can be one of the goals of developmental policies. In the field of happiness economics, the focus of studies is on analyzing the impact of various economic factors on happiness. But so far, no study has investigated the effect of economic variables on happiness with the panel threshold regression models. In the present study, the effect of eight variables on happiness using panel data for 100 countries in the period 2005 to 2016 in three scenarios was investigated using panel threshold regression method. The results of the research show that the happiness relationship with per capita income, health, consumption, government expenditures and economic freedom is positive and there is a negative relationship between happiness and income inequality, inflation and unemployment. In each scenario, only a threshold value was detected. Consumption expenditures and economic freedom have a positive effect on happiness, and the size of this effect increases with increasing per capita income (threshold variable). Per capita income has a positive effect on happiness, but with increasing income inequality (threshold variable), the effect of per capita income will decrease. It seems, therefore, that the formulation of appropriate policies to reduce income inequality can lead to more social happiness for the society, which will result in increased productivity and economic growth.

This article provides a mathematical analysis of the formation of the long-run personal distribution income based on factor distribution in a macroeconomic structure. For this purpose, primarily with extraction, the relative factor’s share of national income in conventional macroeconomic production function showed that The factor's shares depend only on the parameter (α), not on the amounts of capital or labor or on the state of technology as measured by the parameter A. Then, in order to extraction, the Lorenz curve organized the parameters of population and economic income recipients based on the relative share of wage earners, stock returns and money interest. In the next step, using techniques of numerical analysis (Lagrange form of the interpolation polynomial), Lorenz curve equation derived based on the cardinal functions. Then we explain the integral Gini coefficient in terms of the Lorenz curve. Then we prove in a monetary system interest-based, the Gini coefficient automatically converges to one, in this condition the distribution of income get worse for wage earners and shareholders.  The results of this research are that interest-based monetary system has a negative effect on the personal income distribution.

The present study investigates the effect of capital on liquidity and credit risks in the banking industry of Iran using a GMM system. Eviews9 and stata12 software have been used to carry out this research. The research findings show that there is a significant and significant correlation between bank capital and risk in the banking industry of Iran, so that by increasing the capital of a bank by as much as one percent, the liquidity risk on the basis of various indexes can decrease from 0/1% to 0/4% Find out.In the case of credit risk, the increase in bank capital leads to a reduction in credit risk from 5/7 to 6/8 percent. Based on the findings of this research and tests, the ethical hazard theory in the banking industry is confirmed. And the charter theory regarding the banking system of Iran is not approved. In this study, the size of the bank shows a direct and significant relationship with liquidity risk, so that a unit of increase in the bank's size index has increased the risk of liquidity from 0/003 to 0/008. There is also a meaningful relationship between the variables of economics and the risk of liquidity and credit. The results of the research also suggest that risk management in banks depends not only on internal banking factors, but also on macroeconomic factors.

The main purpose of this investigation is to examine the impact of the banking market structure on the effectiveness of monetary policy transmission through the bank lending channel. In the first step, we computed the banking sector's market power during 2001 to 2014. In the second step, we evaluated loan growth to measure market power in the banking sector as one of the independent variables. In this order, we used panel data regression with fixed effects approach. In this paper, we measured market power by using frontier cost function. We used macroeconomic variables and balance sheet data of 33 banks to estimate the model and evaluate the factors affecting the lending channel. The results indicate that an increase in the market power has a negative effect on the bank lending channel of monetary transmission. Also, the results show the increase in bank debts to the central bank as a monetary policy indicator has a positive and significant but weak effect on the lending channel of the banking system.

This study examines the effect of regulatory policy on efficiency under prudential framework among banks listed in the Iranian Securities and Exchange Organization over the period 2003 to 2015. Arellano-Bond estimation method has been patronized to investigate the effect of regulatory policies on efficiency. Results indicate that regulatory policy indicator indexing reserve requirement on investment deposits has had a positive relationship with the efficiency ratio, Sum of Assets Circulation Ratio (SACR), although it is not meaningful. On the other hand, the legal reserve ratio is positively and meaningfully affecting efficiency in financial institutions. Leverage ratio is negatively and meaningfully affecting the efficiency ratio (SACR) which highlights the point that as the financial institutions heighten their leverage ratio, it will lead to lower sum of asset circulation ratio as the best indicator of efficiency under activity proportions. Higher risk will lead to higher Financial Cost to Net Profit ratio (FCNP) interpreted as lower efficiency in financial institutes. Furthermore, regulatory policy denoted by the legal reserves ratio with one lag interval negatively-significantly influences the financial cost ratio.
JEL Classification: C81, E43, E65, G21, G23

The aim of this study is evaluating the effect of non-interest income on the risk and profitability of the banking industry by using systematic GMM during 1384 to 1393. The findings show that the increase of non-interest income results in the increase of profitability and the decrease of risk in Iran's banking system and there is a significant positive relationship between the concentration index and bank risk in such a way that the increase of concentration index results in increase of bank's risks. On the base of the research results and current problems of Iran's banking system, paying attention to bank's money making ability through non-interest income can be considered as a major solution.

The aim of this paper is to investigate the monopolistic power of Iran’s banking industry by parametric approach. For this purpose, the Lerner index was calculated in the bank deposits and loan markets using the Translog stochastic frontier cost function and using banking data including balance sheet and profit and loss statement of 33 banks during1380-1393. The results showed that monopolistic power of banking industry in the loan market has decreased over time and competitive conditions somewhat have been improved, so that the Lerner index for loan market in 1380 has been decreased from 0.77 to 0.54 in 1393. However, the gap between price and marginal cost is rather high level. Also, the Lerner index of deposit market has been fluctuated between 0.5 and 0.33, so that in some years the index has been risen and in some other years it has been fallen. In the end, according to research findings perfect competition hypothesis was not confirmed in both loan and deposit market of Iran’s banking industry.

This paper provides an axiomatic analysis of the formation of equilibrium in a macro economic structure. For this purpose, primarily it is accorded to mathematical features of the prices space assume that these spaces are normed complete spaces or a “Banach spaces”. Then it is showed that the conventional macroeconomic production function is a contraction mapping, and it is proved that there exists a fixed point for the basic neoclassical macroeconomic model in a Banach space. By using a quantity theory of money framework and introducing interest rates, it is showed the formation of inflation in the macroeconomic environment. In the next step we use real analysis and numerical analysis to explain the convergence speed of macroeconomic production function in the context of barter economy, monetary economy without money interest rate, and monetary economy with money interest rate. In this space, the existing money interest rate would necessarily lead to inflation, and inflation would retard the convergence speed.

This article is an effort to examine the Profit Maximization of bank according to Iranian "Law for Usury (Interest)-Free Banking Operations", which is close to the Islamic Banking fundamentals.According to the goals of an enterprise in Islamic economics including Islamic bank and employing the nonparametric test of Weak Axiom of Profit Maximization (WAPM), this article deals with the investigation on the activity of a Bank as a sample. The result is the inefficiency of the mentioned bank in the ten-year period (1383-1393). At the end, the article analyzes this inefficiency.

Effectiveness and efficiency of monetary policy in economics, first of all is related to assumption of exogeneity or endogeneity of monetary policy. Domain of these two assumptions affects Effectiveness, efficiency and regulation of monetary policy. There are so many studies and views about dominance of these two assumptions. Empirical test is a solution for understanding the dominance of different views in a given country. There have been some investigations to study endogeneity of Iran money supply, but here - unlike previous studies – the direct test and Sargan test according to seasonal data between1375-1391 based on two important views of structuralism and accommodationism has been used. The Results show that firstly, money is endogenous. Secondly, concerning the endogeneity of money, structuralism's approach matches more to Iran economics than accommodationism's view. Necessary of change in targeting; from monetary targeting and liquidity growth to targeting compatible to endogeneity conditions of money is of the other result of the study.

This study examines the impact of monetary shocks to the housing economy, it pays
In this regard, the long run structural vector model (SVAR) based on data from years 91-1376 seasonally used.
The results show that instantaneous response functions, shock to the money supply significantly increases the housing market variables except the variable "facilities housing sector" is.
Variables, residential investment, land price index and housing price index, based on responses of the research findings have fairly similar to a monetary policy shock.
Entered into an interest rate shock increase housing costs and reduce short-term investments and long-term residential land price index and the increase of these two variables. , And its effect on the variables and run the facilities for housing rent index was positive and significant effect on interest rates, but there are no facilities for housing.
The analysis of variance showed a significant share of the money supply, the amount of variance in the housing market, with the exception of the variable "facilities granted to the housing sector," explains a small portion of the interest rate, the amount of variance explained in the housing market.

The purpose present paper will firstly explain and define human capital and then will estimate the relationship between health and education expenditures with economic growth in Iran and Middle East and North African countries by using panel data.
Regression Models. Our finding shows, there are relationship between human capital and economic growth in Iran and other selected countries.
According to the results coefficient of health and education are %32 and %42, the weaker connection between health cost and growth can be a warning for policy makers in making an efficient budget policy.

IN ACCORDANCE TO DEVELOPMENT OF INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY IN IRAN، ELECTRONIC BANKING HAS BEEN DEVELOPED IN RECENT DECADE. A MEANINGFUL TRANSFORMATION HAS BEEN PLACED IN THE STYLE OF EXISTING BANKING SYSTEM SERVICES، BY SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN THE USE OF ELECTRONIC BANKING TOOLS IN TEN YEARS. THE REFLECTION OF THIS PHENOMEN IS CLEAR IN THE BEHAVIOR OF PEOPLE AND BANKING SYSTEM WHO CARE ABOUT CASH، MONEY DEMAND PREFRENCES AND VARIATION IN THE COMPOSITION OF BANK RESOURCES. THEREFORE; EFFECTIVENESS OF E-BANKING ON VARIABLES SUCH AS MONEY DEMAND IS A TOPIC WHICH APPEARS ESSENTIAL TO STUDY. DEMAND MONEY FUNCTION IS ONE OF THE MAIN IMPORTANT PARTS OF MONETARY SYSTEM AND PLAY CRUCIAL ROLE IN TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY POLICY TO THE REAL ECONOMIC SECTION. THE IMPACT OF THIS ON OTHER COMPONENT OF ECONOMIC SYSTEM، BOTH MONETARY AND NON-MONETARY IS INEVITABLE. IN OTHER WORDS، TO ANALYZE MONETARY ISSUES AND SOLVING THE PROBLEMS، IT IS NECESSARY TO UNDERSTAND THE NATURE OF MONEY DEMAND. IN THIS PAPER، THE DEMAND FUNCTION HAS BEEN ESTIMATED BY USING AR METHOD AND ENTERING EXOGENOUS VARIABLES IN MARKOV SWITCHING VECTOR AUTO REGRESSION MODEL. FOR MODELING OF MONEY DEMAND FUNCTION، SEASONAL DATA BETWEEN 2002 TO 2011 HAVE BEEN USED. ALSO THE EFFECT OF TRANSACTION VOLUME THROUGH POINT OF SALE (POS) AND AUTOMATIC TELLER MACHINE (ATM) AS EN-BANKING INDEX HAS BEEN DETERMINED. ACCORDING TO STABILITY TESTS، ESTIMATING THE MONEY DEMAND WICHE CONTAIN EN-BANKING VARIABLES IS UNSTABLE. THERFOR، IT CAN BE STATED THAT THE RESULTS OF FISCAL AND MONETARY POLICIES OF THE CENTRAL BANK AND THE GOVERNMENT TO ACHIEVE ITS GOALS DUE TO UNCERTAIN DEMAND MONEY POSITION، SOMETIMES IS REVERSED.

In this study, the Relation of money innovations and money demand in Iran in the form of time series between 1959 and 2010 by ARDL method has been tested. Financial Innovations is a broad concept in Money Substitution whose main part is formed in bank section. Here, focusing on bank part (section), the effect of financial innovations on money demand is examined. Results show that in a given period in spite of Financial Innovations money demand is stable. Here are long run relations and consequently short – run dynamic adjustment toward equilibrium between money demand and inflation rate variable, GDP and Financial Innovations. Financial Innovations has negative effect on money demand in short and long run as a focused variable of the current study. The speed of model adjustment toward long–run one in both models is low. Also short-run elasticity of Financial Innovations is more than long run one.

The important role of export in economic growth and development and its impact on different economic sectors constitute a broad and significant issue upon which a large number of economists have been concentrating their minds, and has even branched out extensively into other scientific fields. In this regard, developing countries benefit from potential endowments due to relative advantages and huge amount of resources and have expertise in raw materials production and international specialization has led these countries to be dependent on raw materials export earnings. Likewise, considering that export's commodity prices are unpredictable, their fluctuations lead to export earnings be violated. Consequently, the economy as a whole would negatively or positively be affected and these result in instability of economic growth. For this purpose, this study aims at investigation of relationship between export earning's volatilities and economic growth. Therefore, using estimation of St. Louis growth model over period 1976-2010, and Auto-Regression Distributed Lags (ARDL), effects of export earning's volatilities on economic growth was evaluated. The findings of this study indicate significant negative impact of export earning's volatilities on economic growth.

This paper applies Optimum Currency Area (OCA) theory to examine the plausibility of a currency union among Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) member states، using the Fuzzy C-Mean (FCM) Clustering Algorithm technique. In other words، this paper investigates the degree of homogeneity of ECO member states during two periods of (1992-1999) and (2000-2010)، using the six OCA Criteria. The results of the study indicate that ECO states، based on the OCA criteria، are not sufficiently and thoroughly homogeneous to be categorized in the same cluster. On the whole، the OCA criteria mean of ECO states show improvement، when passing from the first period to the second period. Homogeneity of OCA criteria reflects an increase، too. In sum، this paper shows that، from the first period to the second period، homogeneity of ECO states، and due to the fact that clustering has moved towards clustering with fewer clusters، has relatively increased.

In this study, the existence or non-existence of housing price bubble in Tehran is investigated by both econometric and graphical approaches during the period of 1992:Q2 to 2009:Q1. For this purpose, Poterba's model is combined with Tobin's Q theory, which provides us with an academic tool for analyzing the effects of supply and demand shocks on house price and also deviations from fundamental value of house price in the LR and SR.In econometric approach, by using the defined variables in Poterba's model as the effective factors on housing demand and Tobin's Q ratio as an effective criterion for housing supply, fundamental value of house price is estimated by Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model and the residuals of ARDL model is then concerned as the "bubble component".Next, in graphical approach, by using second method of detecting price bubble namely deviation from LR average of some ratios like P/CC, P/R, P/Y and P/DM, their graphs are illustrated.The existence of two price bubbles in Tehran housing market in 1996-97 and 2007-08 is verified mainly in both methods.As well, findings show that all inflation, Tobin's Q ratio, real rent, number of households and housing stock are the determining elements of the fundamental value of house price in Tehran and these variables tend to long run equilibrium at a confidence level more than 95%.