سهیلا پروین

Social security systems have become vulnerable during economic crises, increase in the elderly population, inefficiency and slow adjustment in the labor market. When inflation is accompanied by stagnant conditions, the labor market recession and the decrease in asset yield increase the demand for support. Even if stagnant conditions turn into prosperity, it will not have an impact on Those who outside the labor market. Therefore, the only way to avoid poverty is, to adjust their income. The purpose of this study is to determine the cost of living index based on the consumption basket of retired households. This study considers the cost of living index based on the consumption basket of the retired household. The results showed that, due to the higher inflation in the food group and its high share in their total expenditure, this group has a fundamental influence in the trend of the total household expenditure. Due to minimal consumption, a part of the price increase has been adjusted by replacing basic items with lower nutritional value. In the absence of a poverty alleviation program, compensation decline in welfare caused by economic shocks will have doubles pressure on the resources of pension funds. In a situation where there are even two or more generations of recipients for each member of the fund, fund's resources will not be able to cover the living expenses of the pensioners. It is necessary to revision the structure of the social security system.

Economic sanctions are a low-cost tool that replaces military action with a high economic, political and human cost. The severity of the effects of sanctions depends on the degree of dependence of the target economy on the outside world, the cooperation of the international community with the ones imposing sanctions, and the potential ability to substitute domestic production with imports. If domestic supply is sufficiently resilient, sanctions act, such as an import substitution policy, can lead to higher growth and more employment. Otherwise, sanctions will act as a lack of domestic supply. This study evaluates the welfare effects of sanctions on basic items - whose rising prices affect living standards. We use a multiple choice model and logit function, the income and cost effects of sanctions as well as the impact of exchange rate changes on the price of basic goods on the welfare standard and the probability of households joining the poor group are considered. The results show that, due to the inelastic domestic supply, the possibility of substituting imports is limited, so the cost effects are dominant for the year 2019, in the effective exchange rate scenario, poverty growth is estimated at %2.2 (about 1828 thousand people, and in the official exchange rate scenario, poverty growth is 3.1 percent (and about 2575 thousand People have joined the poor group).

An increase in life expectancy was due to scientific advances in the health sector, which began with the developed economies and quickly had repercussions in developing countries. From among the results of such development,  was an increase in population and changes in population age structure towards older ages. Population aging will have significant impact on macro-economic factors including income distribution.  This study evaluates the impact of the age structure on the income distribution, over the period of 1985 to 2015 in Iran. The “Gini coefficient decomposition” based on household expenditure (income) in urban and rural areas shows that; with increasing age of the head of the households, income inequality increases. Thus, even if other influential forces on inequality, such as inflation, economical recission, etc. are stopped,  the populations aging could be a potential factor for the future growth of inequality and poverty. Hence, for an economy which has an unequal pattern in income distribution, and experiencing a rapid population transition, the population ageing can be an important challenge in the policy making of economic growth.

Changes in exchange rate have different effects on macroeconomic variables and poverty rates through different channels in the economy. Evaluating the effects of policies and economic shocks on poverty requires the use of a method that firstly takes into account different sectors of the economy in a given model, and secondly can reflect both macroeconomic policies and the response of various economic institutions. For this purpose, we use the Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model in which the household sector is disaggregated into ten categories of income and the poverty line is determined as an endogenous variable in the model. This model is solved based on the Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of 2011 and two scenarios of 25 percent and 35 percent increases in exchange rate are simulated. The results of both simulations show that the increase in exchange rates leads to a reduction in real incomes of the both rural and urban households, and consequently lower-income households are affected highly. The unification of exchange rate also increases poverty line and poverty measures of the FGT group (headcount ratio, poverty gap and poverty severity), so that the poverty line and poverty measures for urban households are higher than rural households.

There are several reasons for using the unification of exchange rate policy, which is usually associated with the devaluation.The extent of these policies' influences on the economy is very extensive, especially when the economy is relying on single-product exports and has high foreign-exchange reserves. These policies affect the demand side of the economy through the exports and imports channel and the supply side through the cost of imported intermediary and capital goods. This study examines the effects of exchange rate unification on production, relative prices, exports and imports at macro level and the effects of feedback between sectors of the economy of Iran using the CGE model based on SAM 1390. The results based on two scenarios i.e., 25% and 35% increase in exchange rate indicates that the relative price index significantly will be increased by 21% and 30% in each scenario. Besides, the production growth will be increased by 1.8% and 2.6%, respectively. The same holds true about the sectors. The largest increase in production is related to the "mining" sector. However, the "hotel and restaurant" sector will face even a drop in production. Furthermore, the most inflationary burden will be experienced by the agricultural and related industries.

Supportive policies that lead to significant relative price changes have widespread impact on income distribution that cannot be considered by adjusting expenditures with the consumer price index. While households have different consumption patterns in different income deciles, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures changes in prices based on the pattern of consumption in the average-income households. To overcome the issue, this paper examines the impact of relative price changes on distribution of real income (real expenditure) based on the HSPI Index, which is calculated using the weights of goods in each household’s basket. The period under study is 2007-2015. To measure inequality, the Gini coefficient is used based on Ogwang method. The results show that in periods that price of foods increase more than other categories, income inequality is the more when calculated, respectively, based on Household Specific Price Index (HSPI) and Consumer Price Index (CPI) than Gini coefficient based on nominal expenditures. Because of higher share of foods in consumption basket of low-income households, higher relative price of this category leads to worsening of income distribution and loss of welfare for low-income class.

One of the important objectives of policymakers in a society is reduction of income
inequality. Taxes, as source of stable income for government, are the most important
tools for adjusting income inequality. An efficient tax system in the form of progressive taxation can lead to improved income distribution. This paper evaluates
the impact of progressive income tax on income inequality in 30 provinces during
the period 2005 - 2013 in Iran. For this purpose, the average income tax rate is
calculated for each income decile and its effect on Gini coefficient has been tested
while controlling for other independent variables which include the share of services
and industry sectors in GDP and per capita income growth in each province. The empirical method of this study was based on panel data approach for which we applied Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) to estimate the dynamic equation. The results show that although the income tax is progressive in Iran, but the tax system has failed to reduce income inequality.

The implementation of any economic policy that has expansionary effects requires relatively stable economic conditions. Under such conditions it is expected that potential predictable effects of such policy implementation on welfare of households, especially low income households could be evaluated. The economic context of poverty in the Iranian economy and the ineffectiveness of supportive institutions in particular circumstances make the effects of economic policies on low-income households widespread. In some cases, these effects are so broad that policy-makers are forced to leave or select the opposite course of that policy. Under these conditions, analyzes that illustrate the effectiveness path of policy help the policy-maker to have a clearer picture of the probable consequences of a policy. The main aim of this article is to analyze quantitatively the effects of the recent subsidy targeting policy on the welfare index (cost of living index) in different deciles of urban and rural households using social accounting matrix (SAM) approach. For this purpose two updated social accounting matrices for the years 2009 and 2011 have been used. Both matrices include 40 economic sectors. Comparing the cost of living index, we find that welfare vulnerability of households has decreased in general, however the magnitude of welfare reduction differs between rural and urban households among income deciles. Our findings reveal that the cost of living index of rural households is more than the corresponding urban households. The vulnerability in the natural gas distribution sector has tripled in urban areas in 2011and in rural areas it is nearly four times higher than 2009 level. We also find that every 100-unit increase in cost of electricity will potentially increase welfare index of urban and rural household by 34 and 46 units, respectively. From the distribution viewpoint, the welfare loss is lower for high-income deciles. In addition, our findings show that the degree of vulnerability in middle income groups in majority of sectors is less than the other income groups. The structural path of changes shows that subsidy targeting has created wide complexity and entanglement in the path of the effectiveness of fuel price changes on price indices, especially on the household living cost index. Accordingly, before implementing subsidy targeting scheme, the increase in fuel prices was influencing the household cost index in five ways, while after targeting the increase in fuel prices affected it through the twenty different paths.

Cutting public subsidies like fuel subsidy or changing in payment method will have different impacts on each social group. Subsidy targeting is able to decrease consequences of this policy. Now, in a possible situation to classify the households according to their socio-specific characteristics like gender and head and identify the poverty groups, the government can provide subsidy for that specific group. Statistics show that female-headed households, due to the limitations and barriers to the labor market suffer from various aspects of poverty. Our main purpose in this article is, first of all, to classify the household groups into male and female heads within the social accounting matrices for the year 2009 and 2011. The results show that the average cost of living index of households decreases from 0.055 in 2009 to 0.048 in 2011. This means that by reducing the subsidy by one unit, households in 2011 compared to 2009 should pay 0.007 less for the same consumption basket. Also, the average of female-headed household cost of living index decreases from 0.070 in 2009 to 0.046 in 2011. More decrease of the mentioned index indicates more poverty for this group.

Banking industry is the most important type of financial intermediaries in Iran which, by sound organization and management of its resources and their use, can provide grounds for economic growth and prosperity. Because of the extensive network of relationships between banking sector and major sectors of the economy, shocks initiated in the banking sector can affect the behavior of economic agents and macroeconomic variables such as output and inflation. Among the set of most important shocks to bank balance sheet, we can name examples such as shocks of deposit withdrawals by depositors and bank liquidity shocks, both as liability shocks and shocks to the reserve of non-performing assets as an asset shock. As a result, the effects of banking sector balance-sheet shocks on macroeconomic variables are important. In this study, by using New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model and the annual data for the period of 1981-2012, we examine the response of macroeconomic variables such as output and inflation to banking sector’s balance-sheet shocks. To extract the parameters of the DSGE model, we use calibration method and then we use the moments of first and second order to evaluate the accuracy of the model based on autocorrelation coefficients and response functions. The results of model evaluation showed a pattern consistent with theoretical expectations and the realities of the Iranian economy. The results also showed that the negative effects of balance sheet shocks stemming from the shocks of the reserve of non-performing loans on output and inflation are higher than the shocks resulting from withdrawal of deposits and bank liquidity shocks, but the effects are diminished in shorter period of time. On the other hand, the negative impact of the liquidity shock is lower than other shocks and in a very short period of time, the effects of this type of shocks fade out and inflation and output variables rapidly converge to a stable state.

In the area of monetary policy, interest rate is regarded as a direct monetary instrument and required reserve ratio is as an indirect monetary instrument which in Iran, they are enforced by the monetary authorities to the banking system and will affect its behavior. In this paper, we study the balance sheet effects of the two policies using financial statements data of banking system, System of National Accounts and New Keynesian Stochastic Dynamic General Equilibrium model taking advantage of the statistics for the period 1981-2012. Calibration methodology is used to compute the parameters of DSGE model. We analysis Impulse Response functions and the first and second moments. Results show that an interest rate positive shock by one standard deviation causes the deposits and loans to be, respectively, about 8 and 25 percent higher than the steady state. On the other hand, a positive shock of required reserve ratio by one standard deviation has an impact opposite to the effect of an increase in banking interest rate on the balance sheet. Hence, the consequence of a positive interest rate shock is an increase in output and reduction in inflation and the consequence of shock relative to the required reserve ratio is a decrease in output and an increase in inflation.

The aim of this article is the study of the effects of fiscal shocks on GDP and thelevel of price in Iran, using a quarterly dataset of variables during 1988:1-2010:4.This analysis will take place by using a Structural Vector Auto regression Approach.The results of impulse response functions show different components of government expenditure and tax revenues as having different impacts on economic variables in the short term and long term. A positive shock in total government expenditure and government current expenditure is found to have positive temporary effect on output and also increases the level of prices in the short-term, while the government investment expenditure has more stable positive effect on GDP and no significant effect on prices. Total tax revenue expansionary shocks do not affect the GDP but impose a negative effect on the level of prices in the short-term. Investigation of tax revenue components shows that direct tax shocks contribute to the decline in output and the level of price in the short-term and Indirect taxes has no significant effect on these variables.

The main purpose of this paper is presenting theoretical principles with respect to the place of economic sectors in decreasing poverty and analyzing direct and indirect effects of FGT (Foster-Greer-Thorbecke) poverty index separately for different economic activities against increase in production. In this study، using Fixed Price Multiplier coefficients approach in the scope of Social Accounting Matrix pattern، the impact of economic growth on poverty reduction is investigated. The results indicate that the reduction of poverty in 14 economic sectors has been affected by two factors: change in average income of the socio-economic groups and the elasticity of poverty index to change in the average income of the same groups. Also، the growth in agriculture، building، wholesale and retail sectors has the highest share in decreasing poverty.

The analysis of the Shariah poverty line and its measurement is considered as ane of the basic issues relevant to Muslem societies. Also the impact dignity (“Shaan” in Islamic terminology) is another concern in this regard. This paper intends to analyze the Shariah poverty line (Kefayah in Islamic literature), and the impact of dignity (Shaan) on it. Case study region for the this paper is the Qum province. According to the findings of this paper and other things being equal; Shariah poverty line is measurable and by using SPL methods we have measured it for the Qum province. In addition to using analytical methods this paper, methodologically speaking has used questionnaire inquiry and econometric methods.

The major function of a financial market in the literature on economy represents a way to conduct and dedicate capital. Banks in developing countries have a main role in this way; we can find some variables effective on market structure to advocate capital more efficiently. This paper studies the importance and impact of macroeconomic variables on banking system structure within 15 out of 20 years of Iran's perspective plan. The study has used a fixed-effect panel data method during 2002 to 2009. The results show that the logarithmic form of per capita GDP is the most important variable in market power description as a proxy for institution development. Other institutional variables such as economic freedom index, governance index and financial freedom index have the second importance after the bank special variables (loans to asset ratio and total asset logarithmic form). Inflation rate has a little significant effect on the structure of banking industry, and GDP growth rate has no significant effect on it.

Reforming Iran’s tax system is one of the most important issues due to the role of government’s expenditures and uncertainty in oil income. Therefore the modern value-added tax system is recognized as an approach by which tax transparency and tax structure reform can be enabled. However, increase in prices is an impact of applying this system. In this paper we have taken the advantage of symmetric product-by-product input-output table with basic prices to study the impacts of implementing value-added tax systems. With the help of IO-SAM software, this is the first time to set the Make and Use matrix on price basis of the year 1378. This table is the only table that can be used in analyzing price impacts caused by value-added tax system. The results illustrate; a 3-percent value added tax rate leads to increase in level of prices for about 1.5 percent, without consideration of any tax exemption. After exempting subject products of article 12 of value-added tax law, this index reaches 0.8 percent. Moreover, our examinations identify a 2.99 housing service price impact as the highest among the other 119 products’ in the economy. This rather high impact is generally rooted in its being not interchangeable in the as well as its overweighting demand.

Besides providing securities and transfer payments to maintain welfare and social harmony, governments can provide economic infrastructures to facilitate economic growth improve resources allocation and enhance productivity of the economy. These latter activities of governments ignited considerable debates among economists about the role of the governments and their impact on the economic growth. This paper investigates the empirical relationship between the size of government and economic growth of the 6 OPEC countries based in the Persian Gulf area, over the 1970–2007 period using panel data pattern. The applied models are adopted from Dar and Amirkhalkhali (2002) and Anaman (2004) studies. Our results indicate that, government size in these countries is large, as their government are impart from oil revenues which has negative effects on investment of private sector and then, decrease GDP. Results also indicate that, growth rate of labor force, growth rate of capital and growth rate of export have positive effect on growth rate of GDP.

Price changes Price change is the most important channel to reflect the effects of economic policies on economic situation of households. Price change effects which captured by means of price elasticity of poverty index could be decomposed two components. The first is income effect and the second is distributional effect,which measures the relative price change. Distribution effect determines whether the price changes benefit the poor proportionally or benefit the non-poor. Also this paper uses price index for poor (PIP),which can be computed for any poverty indexes. PIP uses the share of goods expenditure in total household budget of poor household,so PIP shows the poor reflection more precisely. While the conventional consumer price index such as Laspiears use the share of goods expenditure in total household budget as an average,which reflect household behavior with average income. The empirical results by using urban Iranian households data,based on the consumer demand theory,show the price changes during (2003-2008) period,occurred in away that favor of the non-poor proportionally more than the poor. Just during (2004-2005),price changes proportionally have favored the poor,because the non-basic good's price had faster increase than basic good's price.

Using a vector autoregressive (VAR) model and an impulse response analysis, this paper investigates the impact of trade openness on main macroeconomic variables including growth of output, inflation, and employment for the period 1961-2007 in Iran. More specifically, we intend to study how an increase in the degree of openness affects these main macroeconomic variables. The results of impulse response functions show that in the short run the trade openness increases the output growth but decreases the inflation rate. However, the short-run impact of openness on the growth of employment is negative. Moreover, the results show that a one unit change in the standard error of trade openness has no long-run effect on the output growth, the inflation and the growth of employment.

The effects of fiscal policies of the subsidies elimination of seven basic commodity groups on the cost of living of the urban and rural household deciles in the framework of two models are analyzed. The former model is based on transmission matrix (SAM Price model) whereas the latter is known as decomposition (structural path analysis price model). Based on SAM 1380, the overall results depict that percentage of the divert revealed paths due to the subsidies elimination of basic commodities as poles of the origin on the poor urban and rural household deciles as poles of destination are more than rich urban and rural household deciles

The aim of this paper is to investigate empirically the effects of monetary policy on poverty and income distribution in Iran using the data over the period 1976-2005. Monetary policy is one of the most potent instruments for managing the economy. There is a useful question to ask if the monetary policy is used as an instrument to reduce poverty. Most of the existing literature on monetary policy and poverty focuses on the short run. Monetary policy affects most of the macroeconomic variables such as output, unemployment, and inflation. Moreover, anticipated inflation and unanticipated inflation redistribute differently income from creditors to debtors. If poverty and inequality respond to these macroeconomic variables, monetary policy affects the well-being of the poor. The findings of this study show that monetary policy cannot be used as a poverty alleviation policy in Iran, since the expansionary monetary policy followed commonly by expansionary fiscal policy results in a rise in budget deficits. This policy increases the aggregate demand for all the goods and services in the economy resulting in higher inflation. Furthermore, there is no significant link between monetary policy and investment through interest rate. Consequently, monetary policy has no supply side effects in the economy and just it increases inflation rate. As a result of expansionary monetary policy, the poor would find its real income being gradually eroded by the growth in money supply, and hence the possibility of running into poverty.

In this paper we measure the relationship between relative size and propensity to imports of the regions. The measurement is empirically tested with respect to the following conventional regional theory: "the propensity to import varies inversely with the relative size of regions, thus larger regions are expected to have high multipliers, because they import less, and vice-versa". Since macro and micro regional models are not suitable for such empirical testing, regional input- output model is proposed. For this, we initially used a modified location quotient to estimate input and import coefficients of seven aggregated sectors for 28 provinces in 1380. Then, we employed the econometric techniques to empirically test the above-mentioned relationship. Overall, findings revealed that there is a meaningful relationship between the relative size of the regions and their propensity to imports.