عین الله کشاورز

This paper aimed to study the frameworks, models and patterns of foresight and strategic foresight in different organizations, and by using the opinions of experts, trying to synthesize the steps, components and stages of strategic foresight of technology in the field of air defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran, and introduce a appropriate framework in this field. For this purpose, by using an interpretive structural modeling method, the opinion of 25 experts was received, and within seven steps of ISM method, each of the stages of the strategic foresight framework of air defense technologies were sorted. According to the output of interpretive structural models, The pre-foresight step includes Five levels and thirteen steps, the specifying inputs step includes nine levels and seventeen steps, the foresight step includes five levels and eleven steps, the output step includes two levels and seven steps and the step of developing strategies includes four levels and ten steps.  Finally, the strategic foresight framework of technology in army air defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran was designed and developed and using the calculation of the power of influence and the degree of dependency, "effective, connective, independent and dependent" stages were determined at each step.

This paper aims to review and analyze the foundations, concepts, definitions and models of foresight and strategic foresight provided by experts, in order to extract the dimensions, components and key items and finally intreduce steps of strategic foresight for defensive technology in the field of army air defense of the Islamic Republic of Iran. In order to analyze, the initial data was collected by documentary studies (25 documents), then using Meta-Study(Meta-Synthesis), we determined the dimensions, components and items of the research. Finally, 68 people were asked to complete the questionnaire. Using descriptive and inferential statistics, the following results were obtained. Five stages with the relevant components and steps for defensive technologies strategic foresight of air defense were determined: The pre-foresight stage includes the components of the study of competitor and enemy organizations (3 steps), the study of upstream and par organizations (2 steps), survey of the Organization (3 steps) and reviewing the existing situation (5 steps). The determination of inputs stage includes components of target designation (4 steps), specifying stakeholders (5 steps), setting the Territory (4 steps) and data collection (4 steps). The foresight stage includes components of analysis (3 steps), interpretation (step 2), favorable condition (step 2) and vision (4 steps). The Output stage includes components of preparation for decision making (3 steps) and assessment & decision making (4 steps). And The Strategy formulation stage includes components of strategic development or strategic technology management (5 steps) and implementation & execution (5 steps).

Future images represent some kind of collective consciousness of expectations, fears, and hopes. Future images help to shape actions and the most fundamental future questions are related to future images, their formation and consequences. The perception of different images of future leads to different behaviors and reactions in present. Every action is associated with a future image. Future imagination in Islam can be reviewed in two levels: individual and societal. Based on this fact, if religion has future-oriented nature, a religious person would also have this nature and finally the society would move to this direction. Perfect human and justice society have been reviewed in individual and societal levels, respectively. The identification of these factors determine the importance of future imagination in Islam and the position of celestial foresight- leading to consciousness imagination- reveals significant points about future and its features in Quran and narrations of Imams. Concepts about time and uncertainty, and also looking and acting on the teachings of religion about imagination could be considered for assumptions formulation and modeling in this field. This article aims to answer the question that what are components of individual and social imagination from Islam perspective, and what is the role of these components in formulation and realization of twenty-year vision of country development.