پروانه سبحانی

The tourism industry has been able to quickly find a special place all over the world ‎due to its numerous attractions and economic benefits. So that it can be considered an ‎achievable goal in the path of sustainable development. The high importance of ‎tourism and the need to promote it has led many researchers to know more about the ‎factors influencing it, among which, undoubtedly, weather is an integral part of ‎tourism. Because tourists always seek to visit places where they feel the least ‎dissatisfaction. The close relationship between climate and tourism has led to the ‎formation of discussions about climate comfort. Temperature, radiation, precipitation, ‎wind, humidity, and fog can be mentioned among the different climatic elements that ‎have a direct relationship in creating tourist comfort. In this regard, due to the ‎vulnerability and biological sensitivities of the mangrove habitats and coastal wetlands ‎of Nayband Bay, as well as due to having landscapes with aesthetic, educational and ‎recreational values and the necessity of developing nature tourism activities in ‎national parks, it is necessary that the climatic conditions for the activity to identify ‎nature tourism in this area. Therefore, this study was carried out to investigate the comfort climate of tourism and identify the suitable months for the ‎presence of tourists, to obtain high tourist satisfaction and experience ‎on the one hand, and on the other hand, achieving correct planning for more ‎protection and least damage to the region. Based on this, the tourism climate in the ‎mangrove forests of Naiband Bay was investigated using TCI and PET indicators.‎

The climatic characteristics of the studied area show the target by emphasizing the ‎effective parameters in the application of climatic indices, therefore, in order to estimate ‎the desired indices, the characteristics of the climatic variables in Asalouye station ‎during the years 2000 to 2022 were collected and sorted. One of the indicators ‎examined in this research is the TCI index, which measures the suitability of a place's ‎climate for tourism using the variables of maximum temperature, average temperature, ‎minimum relative humidity, average relative humidity, precipitation, sunny hours, and ‎average wind speed. Another index examined in this research is the PET index. The PET index for open ‎environments is the temperature in a sample room of the heat balance of the human ‎body (the metabolic rate with light work is 80 watts based on the basic metabolic rate ‎and the value of clothing conductivity equal to 9.) with skin temperature and core ‎temperature. The body is in balance in the open environment. The PET index is based ‎on the climatic data of average air temperature in centigrade, relative humidity in ‎percent, average wind speed in meters per second, average vapor pressure in ‎hectopascals, and cloud cover in octas for Asalouye station and during the statistical ‎period from 2000 to 2022. was investigated. In this research, the energy balance model ‎or MEMI for people is used to calculate PET.In this research, to increase the accuracy of the calculations and consider ‎that the calculation of some parameters such as the average radiant temperature of the ‎environment (Tmrt) cannot be done simply by climatic data such as temperature, ‎humidity and wind speed, from the software model Ray Man, which was used by ‎Andreas Matzarakis to calculate radiation fluxes.

As the results show, the TCI index indicates the suitable conditions of the tourism climate during ‎the months of December, January and February. While the least favorability of the tourism ‎climate can be seen in the months of June, July, August, Shahrivar and Mehr. The results ‎obtained from the Riemann model also indicate that the PET index for the months of November ‎and March was without cold stress and physiological stress for tourists. While the months of ‎January, Bahman and Azar are a bit cool with little cold stress and also the physiological stress ‎level of tourists. During the first half of the year, while the temperature rises significantly, this ‎region experiences a different degree of stress and thermal sensitivity in terms of physiological ‎conditions.‎

The mangrove forests of Nayband Bay attract many tourists and nature lovers from different ‎places every year due to special climatic conditions and many recreational resources, as well as ‎being located in coastal-sea areas. On the other hand, the studied area is known as one of the ‎areas under the protection of the environmental organization with high ecological sensitivities ‎and protection prohibitions, which requires proper planning for the development of tourism and ‎the presence of visitors in the area. Based on this, in the current study, the comfort climate of ‎tourism and the determination of the appropriate time for tourism activities were investigated ‎using two indices, TCI and PET. As the results of the TCI index showed, ‎‏6‏‎ months of the year ‎‎(November, December, January, February, March and April) this region has the best conditions ‎for the development of tourism activities and the presence of visitors in the region. The results of ‎the PET index also showed that the months of November and March are without cold stress and ‎physiological stress for tourists, as well as the months of January, February‏ ‏and November‏ ‏with ‎little cold stress and the degree of physiological stress are slightly cool, which are favorable and ‎suitable conditions for the development of tourism activities.

In recent decades, the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests in southern Iran have suffered significant destruction due to various human activities, including the construction of docks, commercial and tourism ports, deforestation, and unplanned tourism development. These forests, which provide valuable ecosystem services, have faced indiscriminate and unplanned development, as well as insufficient attention from local communities. Therefore, understanding the spatial distribution of plant species in this area is crucial for effective planning and enhancing the protection of these valuable biological resources. This study aims to identify suitable areas and model the presence of the mangrove tree species Avicennia marina (Forssk.) Vierh. in the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests to facilitate the restoration and proper distribution of this species.

The habitat suitability map for A. marina was prepared using MaxEnt modeling. A total of 234 points were randomly recorded using the Global Positioning System (GPS). To investigate the spatial distribution of A. marina, various environmental factors affecting its geographical distribution were analyzed using ArcGIS 10.8 software to generate maps and environmental variables. The environmental variables were selected based on theoretical foundations, previous studies, and expert opinions. The model included 18 climatic variables and 5 physical variables affecting the distribution of A. marina. The physical variables included maximum wave height, beach slope, tidal fluctuations, water salinity, and beach material (sandy-gravel, muddy, back beach (sand material)). All layers were prepared in ASCII format with a cell size of 1 km, and MaxEnt 3.4.4 software was used for modeling.

The area under the curve (AUC) obtained from the MaxEnt algorithm indicated excellent predictive power for the presence of A. marina in the study area, demonstrating the model’s ability to distinguish between suitable and unsuitable areas. The overlap of training and test data also confirmed the model’s accuracy. The contribution analysis of each environmental variable in the model showed that maximum wave height, annual average temperature, tidal fluctuations, and water salinity were the most influential variables. Specifically, maximum wave height and annual average temperature had the largest influence on the distribution of A. marina, while the minimum temperature of the coldest month had the least effect. The response curves indicated that maximum wave height (1 to 2 m) and average annual temperature (26.8°C) were the most important independent variables, with an inverse relationship to the probability of A. marina presence. As wave height and average annual temperature increased, the probability of species presence decreased. The suitability map for A. marina in the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests showed that the highest suitability was in areas with minimal wave height and less exposure to tidal fluctuations. Favorable areas for the presence and development of A. marina included the northern areas of Khorkhoran Islands, Mardove Island, and the northeast of the Khamir-Lashtghan habitat. In general, the species was more dispersed in areas with low wave height and minimal water level fluctuations.

The study provides key information on the impact of environmental variables on the distribution of A. marina, offering an important strategy for protecting the biodiversity and valuable resources of the species in the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests. The suitability map serves as essential information for planting and reviving these natural habitats.

Today, nature tourism activities are in significant demand with the aim of benefiting from natural elements and preserving nature along with providing economic benefits to local communities. The nature tourism process is dependent on the desired performance of the nature tourist, the host local community and the nature tourism tours. The continued development of nature tourism activities requires assessing the sustainability of nature tourism tours and understanding visitor satisfaction to ensure long-term sustainability in natural ecosystems. Accordingly, in the present study, a list of indicators was presented to evaluate the sustainability of nature tourism tours and their importance in the development of sustainable nature tourism in Khamir-Qeshm mangrove forests. For this purpose, 76 suggested indicators were identified and prioritized using Delphi questionnaire and analyzing experts' viewpoints. The obtained results indicate the importance of responsible tour performance towards ecotourists and also maintaining quality of the natural environment by increasing awareness and training of the ecotourists before visiting nature. The results of the indicators ranking also revealed that the highest priority is related to the environmental awareness course before the trip" and among the final coefficients, the highest rank is assigned to "managed consumption of drinking water". Likewise, 14 indicators were identified and selected as the best indicators with the highest rank. The list of identified indicators can help to identify the ideal nature tourism tours, as well as to evaluate the sustainability of their performance to obtain the satisfaction of local communities, the lasting experience of the nature tourist from the trip, and also the development of sustainable nature tourism in the mangrove forests of Khamir-Qeshm. The list of provided indicators is of great use and importance not only for the studied area, but also for other nature destinations that have the ability to develop nature tourism and conduct nature tourism tours

Due to global warming and climate changes, the water level of the Persian Gulf has increased, and these changes have led to an increase in sedimentation level and retreat of mangroves in the Hara protected area towards land. In the present study, the trend of changes in the water level of the Persian Gulf from 2000-2023 and also the extent of mangrove forests in the Hara protected area in Hormozgan province were investigated. In this study, the fluctuation trend of Persian Gulf water using L5-TM images for the year 2000 and L8 and OLI-TIRS images for the year 2023 in the Google Earth Engine (GEE) web system. It was monitored and analyzed. In this way, the water level monitoring maps of the Persian Gulf were extracted based on the normalized difference of water zones index (NDWI) and classified into two classes, blue and non-blue. In the following, using the Kolmogorov Smirnov statistical tests and Spearman's non-parametric correlation coefficient, the relationship between the water level changes in the Persian Gulf and the extent of mangroves in the Mangrove Protected Area was investigated. According to the results, the fluctuations of the water in the Persian Gulf from 2000 to 2023 had an increasing trend, so that the sea level in 2000 was equal to 5 mm and in 2023 these changes reached 90 mm. Also, the results of the extent changes of mangrove forests in the Hara protected area indicate that this habitat has decreased in 2023 compared to 2000. The analysis of the relationship between changes in the water level of the Persian Gulf and the extent of mangroves in this area reveals that a high correlation can be seen between these two variables during the studied years. This means that there is a direct relationship between the increase in water level changes in the Persian Gulf and the decrease in the mangrove forests of the Hara Protected Area. The continuous increase in sea level and its consequences can be one of the most important reasons for the reduction of mangrove habitats in the future. Considering the importance of mangrove habitats in the Hara protected area as a provider of a wide range of ecosystem services, as well as high biodiversity, management solutions should be considered to control and reduce the consequences and risks caused by the fluctuations of the sea water in the Persian Gulf.

The increased demand and consumption level of human societies has led to excessive exploitation of natural capital and increased ecological unsustainability in natural ecosystems, especially in Protected Areas (PAs). Therefore, the continuation of the process of using ecosystem services leads to an increase in ecological pressures and a decrease in the capacity of natural resources to meet human needs. Therefore, in the present study, the spatial-temporal changes in natural capital and the level of ecological sustainability in the Hara PAs from 1989 to 2021 were evaluated using the ecological footprint model. As the results revealed, tidal zones have the most increasing trend among the existing uses, and water areas show the most decreasing trend. In addition, the obtained results indicate that the extent of mangrove habitats has decreased during the studied years. Also, the performance and equivalence results among the uses of the region showed that the water areas (Aquaculture and fishing area) have assigned the highest equivalence coefficient and during this period, they show the greatest decrease in surface area. While mangrove forests with the lowest level of land use have the highest productivity coefficient. In the studied area, the ecological footprint has an increasing trend, the Biological Capacity (BC) is decreasing, and the Ecological Deficit (ED) is increasing. Thus, the ecological footprint index has increased from 1989 to 2021, which indicates the high intensity of resource use. Also, the foot depth index has an increasing trend, which indicates the increase in the intensity of natural capital consumption and the decrease in capital accumulation during the studied years. Therefore, it is necessary to change the pattern of production and consumption to create ecological balance and control unsustainability in this area. On the other hand, preventing the increase of land cover/use changes as well as the protection of natural capital requires the creation of an integrated management for sustainable development and use of natural resources according to the region's BC.

Developing sustainable nature tourism tours in natural ecosystems requires planning ‎with a view to the future and minimal damage to the region and its biodiversity. Therefore, the ‎current study aimed to present scenarios for developing ‎sustainable nature tourism tours with a future research approach in the mangrove forests of Iran. ‎

Design/methodology/approach:

 This study is applied in terms of purpose and analytical-exploratory in nature and ‎method. Information was collected based on theoretical studies and existing records. Data ‎analysis was also conducted through the methods of structural analysis and scenario planning in ‎MicMac and Scenario Wizard software. ‎

According to the results, 41 indicators play a key role in sustainable nature tourism tours. Among the indicators, maintaining the quality of the environment has the most ‎influence, and the index of the employee activity record is the most effective. The total ‎acceptable scenarios include 88 situations, of which 56% are favorable, 32% are static, and 12% have a critical situation. ‎

The analysis of the scenarios showed that the first group provides the ideal conditions for ‎the development of sustainable nature tourism tours in the mangrove forests of Iran, and the ‎scenarios of this group indicate a positive and developing situation for sustainable nature ‎tourism tours in this region.

‎Originality/value: 

Developing sustainable nature tourism tours requires the performance of nature tourists ‎and nature tourist tours in natural ecosystems that cause the least damage to the region and ‎valuable biological reserves. The basis of developing future research scenarios for the ‎development of sustainable nature tourism tours in the mangrove forests of Iran is based on ‎maintaining the quality of the environment and optimal use of resources by increasing ‎education and improving the culture of nature tourism among nature tourists and the local ‎community.‎

Forests are one of the renewable natural resources and national capitals of every country that provide a wide range of goods and services. Since the lives of local communities and their livelihood are directly and indirectly dependent on forest ecosystems, the management and protection of these natural habitats is an important issue for planners and decision-makers. Today, these valuable resources are threatened by numerous human and natural factors. With the development of technology, industry, and significant population growth, the exploitation and destruction of these natural areas to provide raw materials, space, and food are increasing progressively, leaving irreparable damages in recent years. Accordingly, the present study was carried out to identify the type of use and the degree of local communities’ dependence on the Khamir-Qeshm mangrove forests. The study also seeks to analyze the relationship between the livelihood dependence of local communities and the exploitation extent of these forests. Khamir-Qeshm mangrove forests account for reserves, shelters, feeding and nursing places for many plants and animals. These natural habitats are also the main source of providing ecosystem services for local communities and residents of the edges of these forests. Thus, the ecosystem services of mangrove forests in the studied area are an important tool to show issues such as the livelihood dependence of communities living on the edge of the habitats, the importance of food security, income, health, and sustainable development of human activities. In this regard, the present study complements other studies in terms of the importance of the exploitation of natural mangrove habitats and the use of each of these services in the lives of local communities and residents of the edges of forests. In particular, the areas that are closer to the villages are not of good quality and need more protection.

In the current descriptive-analytical research, data were collected through questions and interviews with local communities. The statistical population of the research consisted of local communities, and a sample size of380 people was calculated in the studied area, which was sampled by the cluster method considering the population of each village. The validity of the research to measure the appropriateness of the questionnaires prepared by structural and formal methods was determined through the opinions of experts and specialists, and its reliability was measured using Cronbach's alpha in SPSS software. The result is statistically confirmed and acceptable, with α = 0.9.

According to the obtained results, the Khamir-Qeshm mangrove forests are mostly used for food consumption, including harvesting wild honey, catching aquatic and edible invertebrates (for home use, restaurants, and selling in the market), hunting birds, and harvesting fodder for feeding livestock (camels). On the other hand, the lowest amount of consumption belongs to harvesting wood from mangrove forests for the construction of pavilions and residential houses. According to the obtained averages, the highest priority in the use of Khamir-Qeshm mangrove forests is assigned to food consumption, followed by tourism, handicrafts, pharmaceuticals, fuel consumption, and construction from the highest to the lowest priority, respectively. In other words, food consumption, especially fishing and aquaculture, is the first priority in this region, and other activities such as tourism, due to the limited time suitable for tourists in the region, making handicrafts, pharmaceutical consumption, fuel consumption, and construction due to the low market demand and necessary facilities have lower efficiency and priority. In addition, the employment of the residents of the area shows the level of livelihood dependence of the local communities on the mangrove forests of Khamir-Qeshm, who exploit these natural habitats for their livelihood and daily needs. In general, the income of most local communities is provided by fishing, although they are also engaged in other activities such as boating, tourism, boat building, and creating ecotourism lodges and beach restaurants. The results of the analysis of the relationship between subsistence dependence and the amount of exploitation of these forests indicate a significant and direct relationship between these two factors. This means that the exploitation level of these forest habitats increases with the increased demand and livelihood needs of local communities. As one of the most important natural resources, mangrove forests have a direct relationship and an undeniable place in providing livelihood, welfare, and comfort to human societies. On the other hand, these forests should always be the focus of planners and decision-makers due to their essential role in strengthening the livelihood and development of human societies.

Considering the protection status and biological sensitivities of the studied area, ‎the continuation of this type of exploitation causes heavy damage to the forests of the area ‎and endangers their survival for future generations. Therefore, management policies and ‎arrangements should be considered to reduce the exploitation of mangrove forests by local ‎communities and to protect and sustain these natural habitats. In addition to this training, ‎informing and empowering local communities in the development of local businesses and ‎increasing their income can help reduce people's livelihood dependence on forests.‎

Global warming has disrupted the climate balance in recent decades, causing extensive changes in different regions worldwide. In other words, climate change has influenced all biological processes by changing the temperature, precipitation, and other climatic variables’ patterns, leading to alterations in the ecosystem’s function and biodiversity loss, especially in dry and semi-arid regions. On the other hand, climate change is regarded as a main threat to mangrove forests, bringing about consequences such as increased sea levels, the occurrence of sea storms, alterations in precipitation patterns, increased temperature, and decreased coverage area of mangrove habitats. Therefore, simulating and predicting the prospective changes in the climate of mangrove forests can offer valuable suggestions for controlling the adverse effects of climate change and reducing the vulnerability of such natural ecosystems.

This study sought to simulate precipitation, and minimum, maximum, and average temperature rates in the mangrove forests’ biosphere reserve throughout the observation period (1996-2022) and the future period (2022-2050) using the data collected from the HadCM3 General Circulation Model (GCM) and the SDSM under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. In addition, the De Martonne method was used to identify the climate of the study area during the observation and future periods.

A comparison of the results obtained for the observation and the baseline periods (1996-2022) indicated that the obtained values of the investigated climatic parameters enjoyed great accuracy, with the highest and lowest levels of model validation belonging to the average and maximum temperature rates, respectively. Furthermore, the predictions made for temperature changes for the 2022-2050 period, as compared to the 1996-2022 period, suggested that the average temperature would rise under both the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Additionally, the results indicated that the area’s maximum and minimum temperature rates would experience the highest increase, particularly in July. On the other hand, the results showed that the average precipitation would decrease throughout the 2022-2050 period in the Hara biosphere reserve under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, with the highest and lowest decreasing trends of precipitation belonging to January and July under the RCP2.6 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. Furthermore, according to the results obtained from the De Martonne aridity index, the climate type of the region for observation and future periods (under the investigated scenarios studied) was classified under the dry category, with no changes being observed for the future period. 

Discussion and conclusion:

Considering the growth conditions dominating the Iranian mangroves’ habitats in hot and dry regions, the results of the study indicated that compared to other human-induced phenomena, climate change had turned into a serious degradation threat to such habitats. In this regard, the study found that the average temperature would increase in the future, especially during the warm seasons of the year, which in turn may affect the biological and ecological conditions of the mangrove forests of the region. Therefore, a high correlation was found between the changes in mangroves and plant communities of the Khamir and Qeshm region and the changes in drought intensity and temperature increase, indicating that the area of the region’s mangrove plant communities has decreased in recent decades due to continued drought. Accordingly, it could be argued that the prospective drought periods would exert considerable influence on the structure of the habitats and the spatial distribution of the mangrove forests. The results of the study also suggested that climate change was considered one of the major known threats to the mangrove forests’ Hara biosphere reserve. Therefore, simulating and predicting such changes can provide useful knowledge concerning the trend of temperature and precipitation changes (as the main climatic parameters) in these natural stands, helping to set appropriate measures for preserving and restoring such invaluable biological reserves. Furthermore, in the management plans of this region, climate change can be considered in the region’s management plans to reduce the destructive effects of those changes.

Sustainable nature tourism development in each area requires a comprehensive knowledge and understanding of economic, social, and cultural issues and factors. Today, on a global scale, it has been accepted that nature tourism should be related to ecology, conservation from the environment, and long-term appropriate use of nature with minimal change in the balance of the environment, it should be natural and harmful. When travel becomes one of the indicators of tourists' satisfaction, the fulfillment of tourists' goals and desire for travel will increase the number of tourists who visit these areas frequently. To induce a sense of closeness to the charms of nature and native communities, and primarily this causes them to be attracted to these areas. In this regard, the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests are one of the natural and valuable ecosystems that have attracted the attention of planners and visitors as the main destinations for nature tourism development. Nature tourism in these habitats has been expanded as leisure activities of tourists in nature and based on purposeful trips with cultural and spiritual visits and impressions of natural attractions and enjoyment of various phenomena in the area. Due to the increasing population growth and the high demand of visitors to the development of nature tourism activities in virgin and coastal ecosystems, as well as the lack of proper planning for the development of sustainable nature tourism in the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests habitats led to this research. To further protect these habitats, the factors affecting the development of sustainable nature tourism should be identified and investigated from the view of tourists who travel to this area for various purposes.

The research method is descriptive-analytical, and the required information was collected through documentation, survey, and completing the questionnaire. The statistical population of the research are tourists and nature walkers who travel to the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests to spend their free time and visit the area. The sample size of tourists was calculated using Cochran's formula and with a confidence factor of 90% for questioning. In this regard, 100 questionnaires were randomly distributed among tourists. The results were analyzed according to the questionnaires measured by the Likert scale method, using descriptive and inferential statistical tests in SPSS software. First, the normality of the data was checked using the Kolmograph-Smirnov test, and considering that the data were non-normal, thus, using non-parametric tests (Mann-Whitney, Kruskal-Wallis, goodness of fit, and Independence), and the inferential factor analysis.

The results showed that there is no correlation and significant relationship between gender, age, and education with the number of visits to tourist attractions in the area. While a direct and significant relationship was observed between the income level of tourists and the number of times they visited. Also, visitors' knowledge of the destination can be effective in visiting in nature tourism. The results of the independence test also indicate that one of the reasons for not visiting or the low number of visits to mangrove forests Khamir and Qeshm is the insufficient knowledge and low level of awareness among tourists of the natural attractions of this area. Therefore, there is a direct and significant relationship between these two factors, and lack of recognition of the natural capabilities of the region is also effective in the visit of tourists. In addition, the analysis of the goals and desire of tourists to visit the Khmir and Qeshm mangrove forests showed that the highest factor load obtained is related to the aesthetic aspects and diverse perspectives in the area. In general, the main goal of tourists visiting these habitats is to take advantage of the natural attractions and pristine and beautiful landscapes of the area.

In the development of nature tourism, one of the most important factors is the demand of tourists and nature walkers to travel and their goals of visiting the destination. Awareness of this issue can lead to proper planning to protect natural resources and also obtain the satisfaction of tourists from traveling to these natural destinations. According to the results obtained, according to the tourist's viewpoint, the main factor in the development of nature tourism in the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests is the natural attractions and landscapes in this area, whose nature tourism capabilities have led to an increase in the demand and desire of tourists to visit this area. Therefore, considering that the investigated area is one of the areas under environmental protection with high species richness and valuable biological reserves, the development of nature tourism should be carried out within the framework of the principles of sustainability and under the power and capacity of the area, as well as the environmental requirements in it to be observed. In this regard, with proper planning and a comprehensive tourism plan, it is possible to develop sustainable nature tourism and increase the economic income of the area.

Monitoring the trend of long-term Land Use (LU) changes in Protected Areas (PAs) and ecological risk assessment is one of the appropriate management methods for prevention of habitat destruction and threats in these areas. The Hara Protected Area (PA) is known as the largest natural habitat in the Persian Gulf and in terms of diversity in habitat form, there are three types of deltaic, island and coastal types with dense, low and thin covers. This area is also rich in flora and fauna and pristine natural landscapes. Therefore, it is necessary to control the process of changes caused by various human activities development and also to assess the ecological risk level caused by these activities. In this regard, the main research questions are: 1) What is the trend of LU changes in the studied area? 2) What is the ecological risk in this area? 3) Considering land use changes trend and ecological risk in the area, what is the status of the landscape pattern indicators?

In this study, from the topographic map of the studied area (on a scale of 1:25000) and satellite images of Landsat TM in 1989 and 1999, Landsat ETM+ in 2009 and OLI_TIRS in 2021 to evaluate LU changes and habitat integrity was used. In order to classify the images, the random forest algorithm was used and the accuracy of the classification was also evaluated using the overall accuracy obtained from the confusion matrix.To obtain the ecological risk index, distance sampling method was used in time scale. The studied area was divided into ecological risk assessment units with an area of 10 * 10 km. Then, based on the number of lost (damaged) landscape indicators in each year, ecological risk level was calculated and the obtained results were assigned to evaluation areas as the central pixel. In addition to measuring ecological risk level, from the landscape ‎Separation index (Si) to show the degree of dispersion of patches, from the landscape Fragmentation index (Fi) to check the integrity of the habitat, the Fractal Dimension index (FDi) ‎and Vulnerability (Vi) were also used to measure the geometric order and complexity of the ‎patches. ‎

Human activities development has caused significant changes in the structure and ‎function of the natural ecosystems of the land. Therefore, it is necessary to continuously ‎monitor and understand the spatial-temporal dynamics of LU changes and the resulting ‎ecological risk. Among the LU classes in the area, tidal zones ‎have the most increasing trend, and water areas show a decreasing trend. The results of the ‎ecological risk assessment also indicate that due to population growth, economic development, ‎and human activities, especially tourism, ecological risk level has increased in very high ‎and high levels classes. Fi, Si, Di, FDi, and Vi indices evaluation, also indicated that most ‎changes are related to mangrove forests and the distance between small forest patches has ‎increased.

According to the results, the mangrove forests of the Hara PA have experienced many changes in terms of size and quality over time, and despite their high importance, their distribution and expansion are decreasing due to human activities. In line with these changes, the landscape pattern of the Hara PA has also been affected and its quality has decreased. Accordingly, continuous control and monitoring of human activities to prevent the increase of ecological risk and the reduction of habitat quality in the PAs is essential, and according to the protection approaches, any ‎indiscriminate and unplanned exploitation is prohibited in these areas. ‎

The control and management of tourist impacts through the estimation of tourism carrying capacity is an effective strategy for preserving the values of recreational areas and promoting sustainable nature tourism development. This study aims to cquire management decisions to control tourist numbers and mitigate their threatening impacts on the mangrove forests of the Khamir and Qeshm area by estimating the nature tourism carrying capacity.

Given the conditions of the study area and its biological limitations, the carrying capacity was estimated in accordance with the framework of the IUCN guidelines (2003), across three levels: physical, real, and effective.

The results showed that the annual physical carrying capacity is equivalent to 29,088,095 tourists. Considering the climatic limitations and the impossibility of tourism activities in 7 months of the year, the actual carrying capacity was estimated to be 12,217,000 people. Tourists can visit this area or engage in compatible recreational activities during months with favorable climatic conditions (including December, January, February, March, and April). Finally, the effective carrying capacity in the mangrove forests of Khamir and Qeshm, based on the area size and the number of environmental guardians required to manage and control this area, is equal to 1,710,380 people per year.

According to the results, managers and decision-makers can protect and promote sustainable nature tourism development in this area by controlling the number of tourists. This ensures that while its tourism capabilities are being exploited, minimal destruction and damage are caused to these valuable natural reserves.

Mangrove forests are considered one of the most productive components of coastal food chains and a source of energy supply. They provide various goods and services with ecological, economic, socio-cultural, and aesthetic benefits to meet society's needs. However, mangrove forests are considered one of the most sensitive and vulnerable habitats in the face of environmental hazards and human pressures. Accordingly, the study investigated the natural features of the Khamir and Qeshm mangrove forests and management boundaries in this area. According to previous studies, it cannot be limited to administrative borders and country divisions to protect and plan this natural habitat according to its conservation history. Instead, it should be protected and managed by considering the biological border and the distribution of mangrove forest cover in this area. Therefore, multifaceted conservation management of the country's unique mangrove habitat requires that its ecosystem services be planned in the framework of a management plan based on habitat zoning. In addition, the development of human activities in this area should be planned within management and protection limits.

In the process of planning and developing nature tourism activities, ‎proper zoning and prioritization of recreational activities for establishment and location in ‎nature is of special importance. In this way, recreational activities that are suitable and can be ‎established in the selected areas are designed and then a sustainable management program is ‎provided, taking into account training, participation and monitoring of recreational activities. ‎In the present study, while identifying suitable areas for the development of ‎recreational activities that are in demand and can be developed in the mangrove forests of ‎Khamir and Qeshm, prioritizing each of these activities according to the potential and ‎capabilities of the natural areas of the region, as well as the proposed and effective criteria for ‎their development.‎

In this study, activities were zoning based on the linear relationship of ‎spatial indicators. Then the weighting and prioritization of these activities was carried out ‎according to a series of selected criteria based on the opinions of experts and specialists as well ‎as similar studies and documents. In the process of identifying the criteria, the environmental ‎conditions of the study area and other factors that can be effective on the development of ‎recreational activities in this area were taken into consideration. The studied criteria include road ‎access network, distance from the city, location of settlements, sea infrastructure and existing ‎patches, distance from protection spots and resident population. These criteria were first ‎standardized in the numerical range of 0 to 1 in a linear way, and then weight was assigned to ‎each of the criteria using the ANP model. Next, for each of the criteria, a location map was ‎prepared in Arc GIS software, and Topsis method was used in Topsis Solver software to ‎prioritize recreational activities.‎

Obtained results, the zoning of recreational activities in this area ‎includes 4 options of how to combine the recreational activities required in the mangrove ‎forests of Khmer and Qeshm, which option 1 includes zones with three recreational activities ‎‎(Walking in the Forest -Watching Marine ‎Wildlife -Visiting the Forest ‎‎with a Balloon), option 2 ‎includes areas with four recreational activities (Visiting ‎Villages near the Forest -Walking in the ‎Forest -Watching Marine ‎Wildlife -Visiting the Forest ‎‎with ‎a Balloon), option 3 includes areas ‎with five recreational activities (Photography ‎in ‎Mangrove ‎‎Forest‎ -Traditional ‎Fishing -Jet ‎Boating-Watching Marine ‎Wildlife -Visiting the ‎Forest ‎‎with a Balloon) and finally option 4 ‎including seven recreational activities (Sunbathing ‎on the Beach Atv's on the Beach -Camping in ‎‎‎Mangrove ‎‎Forest -Watching Muddy ‎Islands and ‎Forest -Walking in the Forest -Watching Marine ‎‎Wildlife -Visiting the Forest ‎‎with a Balloon). The results of the evaluation of the criteria also ‎revealed that the highest weight was assigned to the criterion of sea infrastructure and existing ‎ports, Finally, the ‎ranking of recreational activities indicates that the highest priority is related to option 2, and the ‎next priorities include options 3, 1, and 4, respectively. ‎

In general, according to the obtained results, one of the most important factors in ‎the development of sustainable nature tourism, as well as the possibility of utilizing the potential ‎and tourist attractions in natural ecosystems, is the zoning and prioritization of recreational ‎activities according to the environmental conditions of the area. Considering that the mangrove ‎forests of Khamir and Qeshm are among the valuable protected reserves of the southern coasts ‎of the country, prioritizing recreational activities in suitable areas and outside the protection ‎zones of the region can protect these natural habitats and sustainably use the capacity of natural ‎resources and the appropriate distribution of recreational activities in the area.‎

Using comfort climate indices for tourism development in protected areas is essential for proper planning. The present study ranked climate indicators to identify and select the best tourism climate index to determine a good time for tourism activities in the Hara protected area. The results of the TCI index revealed that the best time for tourists is December, December, February, March, and April. In the HCI index, December, January, February, and March are the best months of the year. In Becker's results, the environmental conditions are suitable for recreational activities in December, January, February, March, and April. The SET index identified December, January, February, and March as the most suitable months. According to the results of the CI index, the best time for tourism is October and March. Also, in the results of the Tarjong index, January, February, and March were selected as the best months. Finally, the results of Mahoney's index indicate that December, January, and February were more favourable. In general, the ranking and analysis of the effects of tourism comfort climate indices in this study displayed that TCI is more comprehensive compared to other indices. According to the weather conditions of the area, it has more realistic results. Among the indicators, the highest rank was assigned to Tarjong, HCI, Mahoney, SET, Becker, and CI indices. The results of this study will help tourism planners determine the appropriate time for tourism in this area

In the present study, recreational activities were identified in the Hara protected area, and then these activities were investigated according to a list of spatial indicators. Spatial distribution of recreational activities in the area demonstrated that due to the land and coastal-marine nature of the activities, as well as the topographical and climatic conditions of the area, most of these activities can be implemented in the coastal areas and coastal waters. According to the results, 12 recreational activities from 43 identified activities were selected by tourists, among these activities, "visiting the forest with a balloon" received the highest score, while "Sunbathing on the shore" received the lowest score. Also, among the 14 spatial indicators, "precipitation intensity" and "suitable time for tourism" have been investigated and analyzed in most recreational activities, while other indicators such as "maximum height above sea level" have been analyzed on a limited number.

In the current research, the level of sustainability in two different types of protected areas of Tehran province including Lar National Park and Tangeh Vashi National Natural Monument has been compared. In addition, the evaluation of the participation of local communities and ecotourists has been done in order to measure the impact of participation on the level of sustainability of ecotourism development in these areas. The present study is theoretical-practical in terms of its purpose, and descriptive-analytical and comparative in terms of its nature. The data was collected by documentary and survey method, in which the data was prepared according to previous studies, documents and international references by tourism organizations. Questionnaire, interview and observation tools were also used in the survey method. The analysis of data and information was done in a quantitative way, which used descriptive and inferential statistical tests and the ANP model for statistical analysis. The statistical population and sample size of the study include local communities and ecotourists. The validity of the research is based on structural and formal methods, and its reliability is calculated using Cronbach's alpha. The results of the network hierarchy analysis indicate that the highest points assigned to the effective variables in the sustainable development of ecotourism include biodiversity, ecosystem, monitoring-control and participation; And on the other hand, the lowest scores are related to the variables of access to ecotourism infrastructure and facilities, population density, number of plans and projects, and ecotourism costs. The results also indicated that the level of sustainability in Lar National Park is 4 (from 5), and in Vashi Gorge National Natural Park is 2.3. Also, the highest level of participation among local communities and ecotourists is related to Lar National Park.