مقالات رزومه سروش کیانی قلعه سرد

In this study, the commercialization efficiency of growth companies of growth centers of Iranian university technology units for thirty provinces in the period 1393-1396 has been analyzed. For this purpose, using data envelopment analysis method and scale variable return model, it has estimated the values of technical, scale and managerial efficiency. The results show that there is no positive and significant relationship between academic rank and technical efficiency of growth centers. 12 provinces have lower than average technical efficiency, among which, Kerman province, despite being ranked 26th in the university and located in a semi-industrial area, has the lowest amount of technical efficiency at 0.315. It can be said that effective interaction between academia and industry accelerates innovation, so the lack of an innovative environment of communication between the formal management mechanisms of the university and industry and low managerial efficiency (0.382), moderates academic innovation practices and causes communication. These two areas are diminishing. On the other hand, despite being in the university rankings at level 51 and in a weak industrial zone, Bushehr province has a higher technical efficiency (0.931) than the average, which is mostly due to its high efficiency. It is at the top of its management.

Introduction:

 Climate change, with less access to water, results in product yields, and as a result of declining production, the economic consequences are affected by these changes, and the farmer experiences a reduction in income resulting from a decline in his performance (Gohar & Kashman, 2016) . Iran's presence in the dry and semi-arid belt of the world has always been caused by dehydration and alternate droughts. Climate change, with a decline in access to water, yields products, and as a result of declining production, the economic consequences are affected by these changes and the farmer experiences a decline in income resulting from a decline in his performance. Wheat is one of the products affected by these changes. In Iran, this product is considered to be the most important and most cultivated crop. In the 2012-2015 crop year, the level of wheat cultivation in Iran was 5928728 hectares and its production was 14592003 tons. It is a statistic that indicates both the level of cropping and the production of this product in a high level and volume. This product is 50.39% of the total cultivation and 17.58% of total crop production in the mentioned crop year (Agricultural Statistics, 2017).

 Materials and Methods: 

Using a positive mathematical programming as well as information on the wheat crop during the years 1339-1394, the trend of cultivars, incomes and prices of wheat climatic assumptions over 20 years is discussed. This goal was pursued using GAMS software in the present study. CROPWAT software was used to calculate the need for water in the cost and product sector. The method of pmp was first introduced by Hawait. As the most commonly used method for calibration, a mathematical programming model is performed in three steps. In the first step, the linear programming model is determined by considering the calibration limitations, and in the second stage, with the help of the dual values of the previous stage model, a nonlinear objective function is formed. In the third step, the calibrated target function is used as a nonlinear programming model for policy analysis (Moghadasi & Bakhshi, 2014). Climate scenarios in this study will be achieved with regard to climate variability and change in average annual rainfall. Research scenarios include: normal climate change, climate change, climate Variability, and Double Exposure.

Results & Discussion:

 Climate change can be mentioned as an unavoidable phenomenon around the world, which is unlikely to be much more severe in Iran due to its particular geography and dry and semi-arid climate. In the meantime, the agricultural sector has been and will be more vulnerable to these natural changes due to the strong dependence on natural phenomena. Following the variability of this part of the climate change, agricultural production is affected first and foremost. In fact, climate change will change the price of products and income of farmers by changing production levels. In this study, the effects of climate change on agricultural production have been evaluated to study the effect of four different climate scenarios on rainfall, cropping area, yield and price of wheat products as one of the most important agricultural products in Iran. The results show that among the four scenarios studied, climate change and climate change scenarios have more severely affected the studied cases. The first issue is the effect of different scenarios on rainfall, which results in a significant reduction in precipitation over a period of 20 years. This would be to a degree where the average rainfall in both the climate change and climate change will decrease by an average of 50% annually, as compared to two other situations. Under these two scenarios (climate change and climate change), cropping levels and income levels will fall further than the other two scenarios. In these two scenarios, wheat prices will be higher than other scenarios. Based on the results of this study, the continuation of climate change and the lack of appropriate policies to confront and adapt to these changes will be unavoidable. Reducing income and rising prices will lead to a reduction in the welfare of producers and consumers. Key words: Climate change, Climate variability, Wheat production, Iran.

Climate change affects agricultural production and , consequently, agricultural factors such as food security and economic well-being. In this study , by distinguishing between different aspects of climate change, the effects of four climate change assumptions, climate variability, climate change , variability and climate change on food security and economic well-being during the years of 2001-2016 were investigated and by using the cost and production information of three products of food security index in Iran (wheat , rice and potatoes) , using the Positive Math Planning (PMP) method was used. The results of this study showed a sharp decrease in farm incomes and a surplus of economic welfare as well as an increase in the price of the product under the fourfold assumptions. In four assumptions examined , the average of total income 43979.4 , 127241.9 , 157960.1 and 272367.1 million Tomans was reduced , the price of the desired product 332.95, 343.7, 565.18 , and 1160.86 one thousand Tomans was increased , and the total of economic welfare surplus decreased 927884.4, 1542416, 2016383 and 2356754 million Tomans, respectively. Reducing the effects of climate change can be achieved by changing the pattern of cultivation , using modern irrigation methods and desertification.

Climate change is crucially important in Iran given its arid and semiarid climate. It influences water resources, thereby affecting many activities and even threatening human life seriously. The assessment of the extent to which climate change can influence water use and resources can play a decisive role in macro-policymaking. Present study uses positive mathematical programming (PMP) in the context of four climatic scenarios (normal climate change, climate change, climate variability, and concurrent climate change) to explore impacts of these changes on agricultural water use and water resources of Iran in a 20-year period. The results showed that in the context of concurrent climate change and also climate change, in spite of the decrease in water use by the agricultural sector, water resources of Iran are reduced with much higher rate than that under other climatic conditions. According to results, average annual agricultural water use under four studied scenarios will be 35,103.65, 26,533.8, 35,216 and 26,510.69 million m3, and average rate of annual loss of water resources will be 4,422.2, 11,165.6, 4,438.24, and 11,267.45 million m3, respectively. Accordingly, changes should be applied in approach to water demand and supply management. Also, policies should be adopted to cope with climate change.

Climate change as an unavoidable challenge affects many different natural and human aspects and requires serious planning in this regard. One of the sectors that is heavily dependent on such changes is the agricultural sector and its development. The impact of this sector and, consequently, the development of these changes means a change in production and hence the price of farmers’ products and incomes, and requires planning in this regard. In this study, using data on the production of five major crops in Iran and also data on weather and climate during the period of 1394-1379, the impact of climate change on Iranian agricultural development and its proper planning to address these changes has been addressed. Therefore, considering four different climate scenarios and using a positive mathematical programming approach, this goal has been investigated for 20 years. The results of the research show that the two scenarios of climate change and combined climate variability and climate change have the most effect on the indexes studied. According to these results, in the scenarios 1-4, the area under cultivation is 1965.8, 1416.14, 1972.9 and 1414.7 thousand hectares respectively, the average net income is 12853.6, 10842.9, 12879.1 and 10873.52 billion Toman. The average price per tonne of products will be 8.07, 9.9, 8.06 and 9.91 million Toman.Therefore, for managing climate change and reducing its negative impacts on agricultural development, suggestions such as urgent and urgent planning for water management, changes in macroeconomic management planning and changes in policy making in the agricultural economy are one of the suggestions is to adapt to climate change and manage its negative impacts on agricultural development.

The uncontrolled use and wasting of water in the agriculture sector gives greater importance than ever before to the question of water resources management. One of the most important uses of water in the agriculture sector, which has received much less attention than the others, is virtual water e port through which a very large volume of Iran’s water resources leaves the country every year. This research studies the exchange rate uncertainty, which is one of the influential factors in virtual water export. Therefore, in this study first we use EGARCH method to estimated exchange rate uncertainty and then we use Hsiao causality method to show relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and the export of virtual water. The findings show that the FPE(i) index values in the two studied causal states, (14.46 and 3.43) are respectively larger than that of the FPE (i, j) index value (13.82 and 1.47). This fact confirms that there is a mutual causal relationship between exchange rate uncertainty and virtual water export of Iran. Therefore, we can say these two factors influence on each other. These results point to the need for stability in the foreign currency of the country on the one hand and management of the production and export sectors on the other hand.

Despite self-replenishing nature and lack of negative external effects of new energies, the energies entail higher costs than the conventional energy resources. The governments cannot afford these extra costs, and it needs to take part the public. This study examines extent of public participation in the funding of these costs. The study employed the double-bounded dichotomous choice (DBDC) contingent valuation (CV) method. We release 400 questionnaires under five corresponding prices. Two cost-related questions were asked from each participant (once twice the original price, and once half of that). The interviewees determined the extra cost they would incur, taking into account seven factors, namely: regional economy, demand for electricity, environmental considerations, diplomatic relations, safety, ethics, and the economy. The results suggest a willingness-to-pay of 46360 Rials (≈1.2USD) per month. The findings also indicate that the items including willingness to new energies, importance of environment and influence of the energies have the highest effect on the willingness of payment.

Eshkaft-e Salman historic district in the City of Izeh has several inscriptions designed at the time of a local kingdom called “Honey”. Each year, many people visit this area because of its importance and archaism. The main purpose of this study is to estimate the “willingness to pay” of tourists who visit this region using contingent valuation. Therefore, required data was collected with survey and interview of 207 visitors in 2014. “Willingness to pay” was estimated using Parametric and Non-Parametric methods of Contingent Valuation. Results showed that mean willingness to pay are 18,000 and 11,000 Rials per visit based on the parametric and non-parametric methods, respectively. Findings of this study could be a useful guide for policy-makers and also heritage and tourism planners in order to determine the appropriate tickets price and financing cost of services, reconstruction and maintenance of this region.