علی اکبر اسدی

In recent years, there has been a notable trend in Iran's environment, characterized by China's increasing presence and influence in the Middle East, as well as its endeavors to strengthen relations with the Persian Gulf countries. Given America's longstanding presence in the Persian Gulf and its strategic partnerships with Arab countries, China's involvement has significantly contributed to the complexity of regional issues. For instance, Saudi Arabia, the largest Arab country in the Persian Gulf, has expanded its interactions with China focusing on energy, and in practice, China has become Riyadh's first commercial and economic partner.The main aim of this article is to provide a comprehensive analysis of the essential factors and significant changes that have shaped Saudi Arabia's foreign policy towards China during the reign of King Salman. It addresses the following questions: what are the determining elements of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy regarding China in the years after 2015, and how have these factors led to the prioritization of extensive cooperation and a comprehensive strategic partnership between the two countries?

Methods and Conceptual Framework: 

To identify and explain the underlying factors behind Saudi Arabia's shift in foreign policy toward China, this study adopts the conceptual framework of Neoclassical Realism and uses an explanatory methodology. Structural realists emphasize the importance of changes in the international system and the balance of global power in shaping countries' foreign policies. However, neoclassical realists emphasize the significance of internal factors in understanding a government's foreign policy. Therefore, a substantial part of this research focuses on investigating the impact of domestic variables on the strategic choices made by the Saudi government towards China.

The findings of this research indicate that the rise of China and its consequences at international and regional levels are the main and independent variables shaping Saudi Arabia's new foreign policy towards China. However, while international factors have a substantial impact, there are also specific domestic factors that serve as intermediate variables in Saudi Arabia's strategies toward China. At this level, several crucial factors contributed to the development of Saudi cooperation with China during King Salman's era. These factors included the capacities of national power, the rise of authoritarianism, unity and consensus among Saudi elites, the emergence of new Saudi nationalism, the centralization of authoritarian development, and evolving perceptions of Saudi leaders regarding recent international and regional transformations.Saudi Arabia and China's relations have shown a positive and steadily growing trend over the past three decades. However, it is during the reign of King Salman that these relations have entered a new stage, known as a comprehensive strategic partnership. This partnership is characterized by increased cooperation in the commercial, economic, and political spheres. The emergence of a new generation of Saudi leaders, led by Muhammad bin Salman, has significantly influenced the transformation of Saudi policies. These leaders possess a deep and comprehensive understanding of international trends and conditions, which has played a pivotal role in reshaping Saudi Arabia's approach. Particularly noteworthy is their realistic understanding of the shift of power from West to East, their pragmatic approach in relations with regional and global actors, and the new definition of national interests.

In the new circumstances, despite the persistence of some uncertainties regarding the overall direction of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy, the continuation of the country's military-security cooperation with the United States remains evident. However, the prioritization of authoritarian development by Saudi leaders is a significant driver that will lead to the continuation and development of Saudi Arabia-China relations in the coming years.

Qatar and the United Arab Emirates stand as pioneers in the cultivation of soft power and national branding within the Persian Gulf region. Their leadership recognizes the pivotal role of branding in safeguarding and advancing national interests and security and continues to invest significant efforts in this domain. Recently, Saudi Arabia has also turned its attention towards this sphere, emerging as a unique and somewhat complex case study in terms of branding capacities and policies. Especially since the coming to power of the current king of Saudi Arabia in 2015 and the subsequent power consolidation of Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Riyadh has embarked on a new trajectory of domestic and foreign policies. Changing Saudi Arabia’s image and its national branding is one of those. For this purpose, this paper aims to explore the fundamental question: “What role does national branding play in Saudi Arabia’s overarching policies, and how has this evolved during Salman’s reign?”

This research is theoretically and conceptually grounded in Simon Anholt’s six-dimensional conceptual framework for national branding, which encompasses Exports; Governance; Culture; People; Tourism; and Immigration and Investment. Methodologically, the study adopts a descriptive-explanatory approach. Utilizing a qualitative method, data has been collected through library research and online resources.

Over the past decades, Saudi Arabia has carved out a distinctive international reputation, effectively establishing its national brand on the global and regional stages. This image is primarily shaped by three key facets. Firstly, the nation’s substantial capacities and capabilities in oil production and export, with Saudi Aramco leading as the world’s largest exporter of this commodity. Secondly, Saudi Arabia’s significant religious standing within the Islamic world, which extends its influence globally. Thirdly, its financial and economic aid to various countries, particularly within the Islamic world. This assistance is often manifested in the form of humanitarian or developmental aid. Thus, the triad of traditional elements shaping Saudi Arabia’s reputation and national brand, thereby crafting a unique anddistinctimage of the country on the international stage, encompasses its oil industry, religious influence, and humanitarian and developmental contributions.Under the reign of King Salman, Saudi leaders have initiated a mission to reshape the past image, striving to project a new and positive depiction of the nation. While some previous policies have been maintained, significant changes have ushered in a new era for national branding. Central to this is the Vision 2030 document, which serves as the primary framework guiding efforts to effect a fundamental shift in Saudi Arabia’s position and global image. The document, aimed at diversifying Saudi Arabia’s oil-dependent economy, represents a strategic endeavor to shift the traditional perception of Saudi Arabia as merely an oil-rich country. Its three core tenets - fostering a vibrant society, building a thriving economy, and cultivating an ambitious nation - encapsulate the renewed image that Saudi leaders aspire to project, underscoring their commitment to transformative change.The Saudis have gradually come to the conclusion that the traditional religious-conservative image and the presentation of Saudi Arabia as an oil country cannot contribute much to the soft power and the country's capacities. For this, the introduction of a new image as a country with a diverse economy, an open and moderate society, and efficient and modern governance, is considered an important part of the efforts of Saudi statesmen. In this context, a variety of strategies have been implemented with the goal of advancing to a new level of national branding. The most significant of these include economic branding, along with the promotion of Saudi Arabia as a nation with a diversified economy; cultural branding and social reforms, aimed at presenting Saudi Arabia as a moderate and non-extremist society; The development of tourism and branding that leverages cultural heritage; Enhancing governance to fortify the national brand; Sports branding; and Urban branding and the creation of new cities. These initiatives are crucial in achieving this objective.Saudi leaders recognize the necessity of shifting global public opinion towards their country, including through national branding. They are striving to craft a positive, modern, and distinguished image of Saudi Arabia. These efforts involve acknowledging past weaknesses and negative perceptions, while also considering Riyadh’s regional competition with smaller neighbors such as the United Arab Emirates and Qatar. In this context, traditional capacities and structural barriers are also deemed significant.  Indeed, the political determination of the Saudis and their efforts to implement new policies and significant innovations are crucial.

Despite some accomplishments and positive outcomes in terms of national branding, there are several challenges that Saudi Arabia faces. These include:The absence of a clear definition of branding as a distinct issue in national strategies;The continued dominance of oil in Saudi Arabia’s economic structure, perpetuating the country’s image as an oil-based economy;The potential escalation of internal conflicts and divisions due to cultural and social reforms, which could lead to new crises; and.The increasing political authoritarianism within the Saudi government and the limited participation of civil society in national branding.

Various theories have been proposed to analyze behaviors in the international arena. Some theories, such as mainstream theories, are influenced by the linear approach of classical science, considering the international system as mechanical, closed, and far from interaction. Others, such as complex systems theory, considered the concept of nonlinear relationships and interaction used in the analysis of biological systems to explain the behavior of the international system and tried to explain human behavior as a biological system. Interaction is the main concept in explaining the behavior of natural and living systems that causes chaotic behaviors. Because the concept of interaction in human systems, as the highest example of biological systems due to the power of thinking, is a different concept. The purpose of this article is to introduce the interaction in the international system with features; Flow-creation and interpretation of information, purposefulness, sensitivity to the initial condition and impact and effectiveness. Studies show that due to the differences between human interaction and the interaction of other living organisms, Chaotic behaviors in the international system have characteristics; Simplicity in complexity, certainty in uncertainty, and order in disorder.

Nowadays, international order has passed serious changes in both world and regional levels. The entrance of international order to the era of post-American transition and environmental dynamisms in regions have made some basic uncertainties inspiring changes in roles of most of actors in regions, particularly in Persian Gulf. United Arab Emirates is one of the most significant examples of the mentioned actors. Using the theory of role, this research seeks to investigate what effects have the changes and dynamisms of orders in world and region had on roles and acts of actors in the region of Persian Gulf. The hypothesis is that: dynamisms of orders in world and regional levels have changed the social structure of order and consequently this issue has provoked some regional actors like UAE to start promoting its role from a moderate and dependent actor in regional upheavals to a security, military, and political actor during the last 10 years. The research is explanatory-analytical and the method of data collection procedure is based on library and online international statistics and documents.      

The research is descriptive-analytic. Using the descriptive-analytic approach, the researcher seeks to answer why and how is established a causal relationship between independent and dependent variables, and it is attempted to describe a process and develop a concept.

Two factors at the systemic and regional levels have changed the role of the UAE. 1) Changing the regional role of the United States of America in the Persian Gulf region; 2) Regional developments such as the Arab Spring and military conflicts in Iraq, Syria and Yemen, the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood, Iran's growing influence, and competition and conflict with Qatar. In addition, to consolidate its new role, the UAE has taken actions including: 1) Intervention in the Yemeni civil war; 2) Finding new regional and trans-regional allies such as Russia and Israel.

The findings of this study show that changes in order at the systemic and regional levels change perceptions of the role of regional actors. In this regard, the role and foreign policy of the United Arab Emirates were discussed. In particular, the UAE's foreign policy behavior was largely influenced by the structure of the international system, and they traditionally followed the dominant power; but changes at the systemic level and the dynamics of order at the environmental level led the country to take on a role beyond the subordinate government at the regional level. Hence, the UAE is trying to impose its political and security order through proxy forces, military organizations and the support of affiliated politicians. But the UAE's ambitions and behavior to become an influential country in the Persian Gulf region can have a significant impact on regional order. For example, bringing Israel into the Gulf security environment could provoke a reaction from pro-Palestinian groups and lead to new tensions.

This paper seeks to study the effects of tradition - modernism cleavage on the political stability in Saudi Arabia. For decades, Wahhabi scholars have promoted Salafi values and beliefs, and as a result have strengthened traditional and conservative tendencies in the Saudi society, despite the decades of efforts made by Saudi leaders to advance the process of modernization in order to consolidate their power and improve governance. However, despite some challenges, the management of the tradition - modernism cleavage by Saudi leaders have sustained political stability in the country. During the Reign of King Salman, a new and rapid process of modernization began under the leadership of MBS. This newly-emerged trend is accompanied by a number of dimensions, such as restriction of Wahhabi scholars, concentration on generational changes and also cultural and social reforms with a focus on women’s situation, raises important questions about Saudi political stability. This article makes two interrelated arguments; first, it contributes that the MBS reformist policies and new developments regarding tradition - modernism cleavage causes some challenges like declining the legitimacy of government and growing tendency of people towards extremist groups. Second, these development will not lead to fundamental changes in the Saudi political system.

The present article seeks to explain the Iraqi Kurdistan independence from the perspective of the interests and strategy of the effective actors, and utilizes the Actor Analysis Approach and MACTOR method. In this regard the main question is: what is the main convergences between interests and strategies of the main actors in Iraqi Kurdistan, and this circumstances how affects Kurdish independence? MACTOR method explicitly analyzes the relationships between actors and evaluates the relationships between actors and strategies. The main actors and strategies - including 11 main actors and 14 key strategies- were identified and then graphs were analyzed. The most important results regarding the Kurdistan independence are: the most influential actors in the subject; the actors competitiveness in the Kurdish independence; the most sensitive strategies; and the degree of convergence and divergence of actors regarding the strategies under consideration. The important result is that the sensitivity of the key actors and their relative consensus to disagree about establishment of Kurdish state and disintegration of Iraq and  also concerns about creation of great Kurdistan state and as a result Increasing instability and Insecurity in the region, means that there are serious obstacles to ahead of Iraqi  Kurds.

The purpose of the article is to examine King Salman of Saudi Arabia's approach towards Iran and the strategy of the Islamic Republic of Iran against Saudi actions. This paper hypothesizes that Saudi Arabia under King Salman has more than ever attempted to securitization of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the role of "functional actor". The main finding of this article is that support for securitization of Iran's regional role in the Middle East has been a key focus of Malik Salman's Saudi policy toward Iran. The new Saudi leaders have emphasized on what they called "Iran's destructive regional role" and tried to highlight Iran's policies and actions in the Middle East as the main threat to regional stability and security to mobilize various capacities against Iran. Although these measures have exacerbated security pressures against the Islamic Republic of Iran, however, trying to securitization of Iran has faced significant restrictions and challenges.

the civil war intensified as a result of the ethno-religious identities highlighted by the Baathist regime change in Iraq in 2003; In the following these conflicts, with the advent of ISIS, regional and international interventions in the country reached their highest levels; finally, Iraq's future direction in the form of a nation-state confronted with serious challenges by holding a referendum on independence for Kurdistan. So, the main question of the study is that what can be considered scenarios for the Iraqi political system for the next decade under the influence of the political-social environment of Iraq and the various components of domestic, regional and international?

in order to perform this future study, we use Peter Schwartz scenario planning method.

After examining the factors and drivers affecting ethno-religious conflicts of Iraq in three domestic, regional and international dimensions, we identified two main uncertainties - as determinants and with limited certainty - about the future of the Iraqi political system which are: Increase or decrease in authority of the central government; and increase or decrease in ethnic and religious conflicts. Based on these uncertainties, three major scenarios were designed: integrated Iraq with the Kurdish region, disintegration of Iraq and federalism.

If the power and authority of the central government increases and ethno-religious conflicts are reduced, the Iraqi political system will lead to coherence. Reduction in the authority of the central government and as well as increasing ethnic-religious conflicts will break down Iraq. The simultaneous increase in the authority of the central government and ethno-religious conflicts will also lead to the emergence of a federalist scenario (based on ethno-religious lines).

Developments in the Arab world after the Arab Arab uprisings in 2011 Played a major role in transformation of saudi Arabia's foreign policy. The reign of Salman is considered an important turning point in changing the direction of Riyadh's foreign policy from conservative to an active and aggressive approach. The main question here is that what's the main objectives and desires that Saudi Arabia pursues a bout regional order in the new situation? Another question is about Saudi capacities and opportunities or its obstacles and challenges to pursue his objectives. The main finding of this article is that Saudi Arabia has defined its objectives for regional order in three levels or layers: Hard hegemony in the peripheral environment or the Arabian Peninsula; Soft hegemony in the Arab world and; Balancing in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has several capabilities and opportunities to achieve its objectives, Including capabilities of national power, opportunities arising from regional crisis and international relations and supports. But in sum the main obstacles ahead are Structural Weaknesses, the role of saudi's regional Rivals and the Fragility of regional relations and conditions.

The Sunnis in Iraq under the Baath regime had unique place in the political structure of Iraq.But with the fall of Saddam's regime and the formation of a new structure of the federal democratic, they the lost their high position and became a kind of confusion and political turmoil and took positions and different political approaches in different periods. Therefore, In the years after 2003, Sunni political approaches influenced by historical domination-oriented mentality and the political and security environment in Iraq and partly the regional situation. Accordingly, Domestic political and security environment variables and other components had shaped new fluctuations in Sunni political approaches, despite the dominance of 'negative and suspicion Sunnis into the political process in the country. This article emphasizes that the political actions of Sunni in Iraq from a sinus of conflict and sanctions to participation in the power structure had fluctuated.However, according to the results of intangible and uncertain conflict options and also not fulfilling of balanced participation as an alternative proportional participation, Iraq's Sunnis are gradually moving towards the third option namely, the acquisition of sovereignty or local self-government in Sunni regions.

In the wake of the capture of Iraqi lands, especially Mosul by the ISIS, the talk of disintegration of Iraq was ever more serious in political circles. The idea is still at issue even after the collapse of the ISIS and its defeat in Mosul. The main objective of this study is to examine whether ethnic and religious conflicts are powerful enough to lead to Iraq’s disintegration. Considering the recent developments in Iraq with pretexts of ethnic and religious conflicts, the question considered in this article is whether this situation could pose a threat to the territorial integrity of Iraq or not? Monitoring the positions of internal groups of Iraq, U.S. interests as well as neighboring countries including Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey indicates that disintegration of Iraq would not be beneficial for these countries and it will cause farther violence in the region. In this research, the roles of certain Foreign & domestic or International & national elements in the Iraqi politics and society are being analyzed. A study of the effect of the three variables of Kurds, Sunnis and Shias on Iraqi disintegration or integrity indicates that the Kurd variable has the largest contributing effect on Iraq disintegration while the other two variables show lesser potential for driving the country towards disintegration. Nevertheless, the interests of the regional and trans-regional states combined with the geographical situation of Iraq as a landlocked territory prove to be an obstacle in the way of disintegration of the country. According to the findings of this research, the territorial disintegration of Iraq does not seem to be a viable scenario and territorial integrity of Iraq is more consistent with the objectives and interests of local communities and foreign governments.

This article explores the regional and international factors as the independent variables affecting foreign policy of Saudi Arabia and then it discusses four main features of its political system, namely, kingdom, wahhabism, rentierism and peninsula situation as the intermediate variables – domestic sources. Within this approach, five principles and grand goals of its foreign policy, including peripheral dominance seeking, regional balance, Islamic- Wahhabism centralism, coalition building and anti – democracy actions are analyzed. The main existing issues of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy are to be further explained at different levels as the reference of its constant elements and grand goals.

Middle East's Kurds were scattered in four different countries since the collapse of the Ottoman Empire, and often had campaign activities as opposition groups. But in the current situation, they have become the actors with different roles. The present paper with examining of the political situation of Kurds from the twenty-first century to present , has the belief that , according to regional developments, the international role and campaign efforts ,Middle East's Kurds have become the active and effective player from marginal player, not only within countries but also in regional areas. In this regard, first, there is a survey of the situation of Kurds before the present century, especially at the beginning of changing the position of this ethnic group in the 1990s and then drawing their political outlook with the explanation of Evolution of kudos's role.

Government of Bahrain and the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council with central leadership of Saudi Arabia, as the two main actors have tried to manage and control Bahrain's popular uprising. Bahrain Government considering various components that influence its behavior adopted different approaches towards the popular uprising. Al-Khalifa regime despite peaceful approach toward popular uprising in a period of time and some internal disagreements, finally adopted approach of widely violent suppression of protesters. Meanwhile, opposition groups did not have a unified approach towards the government. Also Persian Gulf Cooperation Council influenced by Saudi authorities and their particular attitude toward regional developments, especially Bahrain, supported al-Khalifa regime and suppressed the popular uprising. Despite some disagreements, members of the council had general consensus about these behaviors, but mostly arises from Saudis considerations about effect of Bahrain's popular uprising on its domestic issues, regional balance of regional power and similar factors.

This article tries to answer the question that which realist theory can provide a more comprehensive and more appropriate conceptual framework for explaining the foreign policy of countries. Along these lines, the author, while mentioning the common foundations of realist views and their internal debates, describes how classical realism, structural realism, and neo-classical realism look to the notion of foreign policy. The emphasis of classical realism on the power – seeking nature of the man, thecharacteristics of states, and its insufficient attention to systemic factors, on the one hand, and the lack of attention of structural realism to the factors of unit level and its mere emphasis on systemic grand variables, on the other hand, are among the deficiencies of these two theories for explaining foreign policy. A more important point is that in neo-realism, the main dependent variable the theorists are to explain, is international implications of an event or a phenomenon, and studying foreign policy does not constitute their main preoccupation, while neo-classical realism posits foreign policy as its dependent variable. This theory, in the first instance, is a theory for explaining the foreign policy of the states.

Over the past decades, especially in the Baath period, Iraq has been a threatening actor against Iran. Regime change in Iraq after the U.S. invasion and the formation of a new power structure with democratic components which have been supported by Islamic Republic of Iran, have caused beginning of a new era in relations and interactions of Iran and Iraq. But considering the regional dimensions and consequences of this problem, especially affecting the regional balance of power, this issue has been faced with the opposition of some regional actors and transregional powers. Accordingly, the present paper tries to explain their goals and to examine policies and measures of US and Arab countries with centrality of Saudi Arabia as the main actors who have called for confining interactions of Iran and Iraq in post-Saddam period.

Iraqi Al-Qaeda can be considered the most important non-governmental actor in Iraq, following the U.S. attack on this country. This group emerged as the most challenging group in opposing the political process in Iraq. It adopted a violent approach, but since 2007, it gradually began its downturn trend. This article tries to study the factors contributing to the rise and fall of Al-Qaeda in Iraq. Along these lines, the author first addresses the factors which contributed to the rise of this group and particularly increasing differences and conflicts among internal groups in Iraq as well as opposition made by Sunni groups. Then, while explaining the goals, strategies and performance of Al-Qaeda in Iraq, the author discusses the factors contributing to its weakness including reactions made by the majority of Sunni groups against it.