abdurrahim pedram

The regionalism and security order of ancient Iran had placed a collection of local and regional systems within a comprehensive system under the name of empire, or rather imperial. Ethnic and geographical, religious dispersion was a feature of such a system. One of the most prominent polymorphic systems resulting from such an accumulation was its governance and order management. The heterogeneous parts, the connection between them and the central system, the synchronization of the systems, the synchronicity and synergy between them, and finally their termination on the same point or goal, had made order their main conundrum. Finding a way to answer such a riddle required innovation in order and governance. The fundamental question is, what innovative methods did ancient Iran provide to answer the riddle of order in the ancient multi-body system of the empire? Satrapy as the regionalism of ancient Iran has been the answer to such a question. The purpose of this study is to investigate this order and reveal Iranian innovation in regionalism. The research method was qualitative and the documentary and library review technique was used to collect data. The most prominent achievement of the present study is the link between the oldest Iranian innovation in the old order and regionalism, which today is considered as a model of global governance.

Various studies have highlighted the usefulness of environmental scanning in assessing commu-nity needs and developing programs and policies. We aimed to find the most practical model of using such scanning in the healthcare literature.

We conducted a scoping review based on the PRISMA guideline to ensure a comprehensive and systematic approach in 2023. To develop a comprehensive search strategy, we worked with experienced librari-ans and the research team. We then completed a search of five electronic databases, including Web of Science, PubMed, Scopus, Cochrane, and Embase databases. Two independent reviewers screened titles, abstracts, and full-text articles to select studies that met our inclusion criteria. The data was then analyzed and presented in a tabular format to facilitate easy interpretation and understanding.

We retrieved 7243 articles from various databases and sources. After removing 2755 articles due to duplication, we excluded 4380 more articles during the title and abstract screening phase. In the full-text review process, we ruled out an additional 103 articles. Finally, only 5 articles that were directly relevant to the study were included. The model that Bednar and colleagues have in their article is the latest model. Most studies pro-pose six main steps to conduct an environmental survey in the healthcare system.

Since the most important task of managers and policy makers of the health system is to make decisions, they can use our proposed model to collect, analyze and interpret data, identify important patterns and trends so that they can make evidence-based decisions. 

Context: 

In recent years, environmental scanning has attracted noteworthy attention within health research in healthcare organizations harnessing this technique to perform their operations.

 This study aimed to compare environmental scanning models and provide a model for Iran’s health system.
Evidence Acquisition: This qualitative and comparative research employed an applied purpose in four stages: description, interpretation, juxtaposition, and comparison. The primary data collection tool was comparative tables to gather data by reviewing articles, documents, and books using scientific databases. The collected information was analyzed by the Beredy method.

 The most significant models were presented by countries including Singapore, Canada, Iran, and the United States. Most health environmental scanning studies were conducted in countries such as Canada, Australia, the United States, and England. Notably, esteemed researchers such as Albright, Daft, Xue Zhang, Choo, Costa, and Nezhadi introduced influential environmental scanning models.

 Environmental scanning is a powerful tool in decision-making and strategic planning for organizations, fundamentally impacting their survival and progress. The healthcare system’s general model for environmental scanning is presented in five steps. Based on the results, the environmental scanning model can enable managers and strategic teams to identify risks, opportunities, constraints, and threats and determine suitable strategies for organizational growth and success.

Identifying and analyzing trends affecting the future of crime and strategies for crime preventionThe increase in crime, the emergence of new forms of crime, the use of new measures in crime and the rapid advancement of technology have led to the expansion of criminal activities in the last decade and at the same time, increased feelings of insecurity and fear in society. Therefore, the need for a correct understanding and sufficient knowledge of the direction of crime trends in the future is quite obvious.This research has looked at the field of crime with a trend analysis approach. Based on this approach, identifying and analyzing crime formation trends in the future will greatly help managers and planners to identify ways to deal with and develop crime prevention methods.In this study and 6 drivers affecting future crimes and 22 global trends affecting future crimes in 5 categories along with their consequences are identified, extracted and reviewed in a panel of experts consisting of 5 people and the titles of each trend were approved. Also, 7 main trends in future crimes are identified and validated during interviews with experts. Content analysis is performed on the results of the interview and explained in the form of a trend analysis report. Finally, based on these identified trends, 10 strategies are presented to prevent crime.

The ever-expanding, diverse and rapid growth of change in various fields, it has intensified the impact of threats and opportunities. The world is drastically renewing itself. Adapting to these new conditions requires to preliminary knowledge symptoms of environmental change, readiness to explore new opportunities, avoid newly emerged threats and avoid surprise. One way of informing key officials and decision makers, especially the armed forces, is to use future studies and watching system. The ultimate goal of watching is to prevent the surprise of the officials and senior managers of the organization in carrying out their assigned missions. This article introduces the Armed Forces watching system at strategic levels. In this research, we have used exploratory mix methods (quantitative & qualitative) to achieve the objectives of the research. In the qualitative section, based on a careful study of existing external and internal documents and content analysis and in-depth interviews with 12 experts, elements and processes of the system were extracted. In the next step, the average ranking of the elements and processes of the Armed Forces watching system at strategic levels and their importance are determined by Friedman test and with the opinions of 31 experienced experts. Cronbach's alpha and combined reliability of the research are 0.796 and0.798 respectively. In the research findings, the system elements are ranked from the point of view of experts in three processes of scanning and monitoring strategic documents, Early warning and Knowing the adversary strategic intents of enemies and competitors

At present, the production of data related to individuals, companies, and especially the data of citizens and its use, is growing rapidly. Today more than ever on the Internet, travel, leisure, business, and in almost every aspect of daily life, we leave a digital footprint, and this data provides great potential value to consumers, companies, government and security organizations. In the digital age, it is easy to use a wide range of citizens' data and information for broader purposes and subjects that were not anticipated in the past. Unforeseen events in the future, such as the outbreak of Corona, can also have a profound impact on the use and sharing of citizens' data and change public attitudes towards the issue. In the present research, with the statistical community including experts related to the subject and 12 statistical samples, while using the scenario method, four future scenarios about citizen data systems are presented, which express global norms, business models, international laws and governments' approaches to Citizens' data can be developed and made significant changes. In some scenarios, there is convergence in data governance, and data moves more freely around the world. In others, governments take more divergent and often more restrictive approaches, and data is increasingly localized; Therefore, in the atmosphere of future uncertainty, while recognizing that international cooperation is inevitable, national data management is also vital, and we must take the path that best ensures national security and the interests of our country.

Cooperative sector is one of the three major sectors of national economy recognized in the Constitution. Any failure or negligence to identify the most important economy, social and cultural factors affecting the flourish and growth of cooperatives would hinder the development of cooperatives sector under the existing competitive circumstances at international level. This study was thus an attempt to determine and explain the most important above-mentioned factors in cooperative sector using grounded theory approach. To select the experts for interview, purposive sampling method was used. Grounded theory is an exploratory research method that allows the researcher to extract new hypotheses out of the collected data when a hypothesis cannot be derived through conventional procedures. In other words, grounded theory provides adequate knowledge about the subject under study or about the topics with little knowledge available on them, or those that have not yet been the subject of a comprehensive research. The data was gathered through available documents and articles, as well as interviews with 18 related influential experts with high levels of education and experience and a very good command of cooperatives economy. MAX QDA software was employed for data analysis. The result was a theory about economic, social and cultural factors affecting cooperatives economy in Iran. The factors were presented under 3 main categories and 16 sub-categories and the theory was named “the theory of the development of cooperative economy”.

Surprise prevention is one of the essential and critical functions of the Future Studies and focusing on the detection and analysis of Weak Signal(s) can effectively help us reach this important goal. Search results in Iranian databases SID and Irandoc by use of weak signal(s) and related terms, clearly show that weak signals and it's conceptual-structural aspects and importance, position and functions have been seriously neglected by Iranian futurists and researchers. Therefore, this paper, parallel to examining the conceptual scope of the weak signals term, explains the conceptual and functional aspects, importance and position of weak Signals. Based on the documentary research method and referring to researches and studies conducted in the futures research field, this study examines the conceptual aspects of weak signals. It uses the Scientometrics analysis method and based on search results in Sciencedirect database try to clarify and define the position of weak signals concept in the recent research projects and activities in futures research area. In this paper, some common ambiguities in the futures research works in terms of process approach and methodology have been discussed. Some technical points on how to advance a futures research by focusing on the process approach and applying the concept of weak signals, have also been summarized.

The objective of this article is to present a new framework in strategic issues based on scenario development methodology. Scenario is a look with logical consistency to the future aimed to dealing with future uncertainties. Scrutinizing the cardinal share of scenarios to our future prosperity, returns to our ability in transmuting the uncertainty to a prominence source and is essential.
Given the fact that each of the strategic issues has a specific context and a specific pathway for the development of a scenario, it is necessary to present a new framework. The methodology of this research is based on the methodology of the field of futures studies based on the deductive approach and using the improvement of the model of the global business network (GBN).
The findings of the research indicate a native framework in strategic issues using the step-by-step framework and the 9-step scenario (identification of actors, identifying the components and influential factors, identifying drivers, identifying uncertainties, drawing up a general perspective, Determining key uncertainties, Describing scenarios, evaluating scenarios, and reviewing and revising scenarios) in order to illustrate this, scenarios of Syria future crises include Passing through the crisis, Maintaining a trench, Breaking the siege, Maintaining the ruin and Conquering Damascus are case studied.

Futures Studies divergence is still being discussed, since as a scientific field, it is expected to live shortly. In this article, along with considering various definitions and a brief view on Futures Studies’ history, it is shown that this knowledge is formed mostly by western intellectual components. This article seeks to provide suitable contexts for Islamization of Futures Studies. To do this we establish a fundamental analysis of Futures Studies in order to identify its intellectual and ideological infrastructures. Futures Studies has apparent western background both in its conceptual tendencies and affiliations, thoughts and attitudes and also methodologies. Considering the fundamentality of this subject and the imperative philosophical view, in addition to content analysis and interview approaches, philosophical arguments and methodological reflection have also been used. Some of the reasons justifying the western nature of Futures Studies are addressed briefly. The intellectual and scientific course of the great and influential western futurists is complementary to these reasons. Therefore, three great futurists namely, Alvin Toffler, Daniel Bell and Wendell Bell have been chosen as case studies. The findings of this article show that Future Studies can be described by its specific western attribute and since it is a value-based knowledge which necessitates consideration of cultural contexts of society, it is emphasized that Futures Studies requires ideological alternatives at least in non-western communities.

Islamic futures studies (IFS) is a new interpretation of common futures studies which has not been practically shaped yet. To accomplish IFS it should be considered that futures studies relies on future thinking the foundation of both these two is the attitude of society. These three, shape a system, namely “Attitude-Futures Studies” which visualizes theoretical and applied dimensions of futures studies. This article tries find out the key infrastructure for accomplishing IFS. Therefore, in spite of introducing the “Attitude-Futures Studies” system, it is concluded that IFS will shape within the Islamic “Attitude-Futures Studies” system. The Islamic and common systems are not completely independent and besides their differences they have some similarities. However the similarities are so few in fundamentals and macro-levels. Also the Islamic religion is not the major difference among them and the temporal and spatial circumstances of the accomplishment of “Attitude-Futures Studies” system can unfold some new differences between the two systems.

Islamic Futurology is an emerging version of the current futurology which is both compatible with Islam and utilizes Islamic teachings to maximum. Having been dealt with in regard with possibility and nature so far, in the present study, Islamic Futurology is examined in terms of how it could be materialized. To do so, the version requires a strategic approach by which it could take distance from the current futurology and manifest itself. The ideal perspective of this route is the full materialization of the abstracted version, however, it should be considered that Islamic Futurology takes shape in practice and is affected by temporal-spatial conditions. Accordingly, the ideal perspective is not likely to be materialized at the present and it has to be orientated in reliance with an operational perspective in such a way that the necessary strategies be developed. Having utilized the viewpoints of the concerned pundits, this study seeks to map the materialization of Islamic Futurology and its operational perspective and then develop the necessary strategies.