فهرست مطالب alireza nasresfahani

So far, many of the reliable future studies texts have pointed out the necessity of using various methods in future studies research, but they have often left the method of its application to the initiative of the researcher, thus witnessing a kind of confusion. The spill is in this area. Therefore, this research is presented with the aim of applying the strategy of mixed or triangled research in the framework of futures studies research.

This research is theoretical in point of view of its goal and Its approach is comparative, analytical and intuitive, and also from the point of view of data collection, it is analytical-exploratory.

In this article, common methods in future studies were reviewed with a glimpse of their intended applications in military fields, and through the necessity of pluralism among disciplines and with the help of the triangle research strategy, a system for quantitative and qualitative methods used in future research was presented. And it was tried to generalize this system to both abstract (revelation) and experimental methods.

Based on Trump's foreign policy and security to curb Iran within its borders, it appears that non-binding sanctions would form the main contributor to the Trump policy towards Iran and could potentially have implications for the comprehensive sanctions 2012-2014. The question now is it possible to change the landscape of the game in such a way that it has a reasonable balance and the legitimate rights of the both sides are protected? Such a change requires a shift in the strategic approach to the asymmetric active counteraction to formal diplomatic approaches, and this paper seeks to formulate a strategic turn around in confronting our enemies. The approach of this paper is analytical and its data is often collected from library and online resources. In this paper, after examining some of the necessary preconditions, based on a series of explicit assumptions that has been inspired from the empirical method of development of Shahid Bagheri, a framework in the international arena for use simultaneously The language of diplomacy and resistance is presented. In fact, this paper is helpful in increasing the cost of West adventure which can be obliged enemies for the treaty.

Futures Studies as an emerging trans-disciplinary science is quickly gaining legitimacy and expansion in both theory and practical areas. Military and security sections have always been the main customers of future-oriented analytical research. One of the major obstacles in the way of generalization futures studies and acquisition of scientific pervasive legitimacy are epistemological and methodological challenges in this area. This paper will consider compliance futures studies with the current framework of social science. Then, the article reviews the philosophy of science, and in particular some of the early paradigms such as critical realism and pragmatism. We followed this article with an attempt to seek appropriate philosophical paradigms for Muslim futurists. Therefore, the article tries to seek the crude proposed Islamic realism (with the taste of transcendental wisdom and realism of Allameh Tabatabai).In this way, future studies in the military fields can be based on the Strong foundation of the epistemological framework in which the validity of reason and quotation is accepted from the achievements of the colleges of the Military colleges and the school of theology simultaneously to benefit.

The purpose of this study is to present a future-oriented model for prioritizing S&T in accordance with Iran's needs. The data collection tools are interviews, questionnaires and documents. In this research, using the method of content analysis, factors affecting the prioritization of S&T were identified. After that, the national requirements of the initial model of prioritizing S&T were examined with the help of interviews with experts, the initial future-oriented S&T prioritization model in accordance with Iran's conditions was presented. After that, the model was validated with the help of an expert questionnaire and the experts confirmed the desirability of the model from the perspectives of accuracy, comprehensiveness and constraint, simplicity and ease, balance and balance, applicability, and finally innovation. The results show that this model includes four steps: " pre-prioritization", "determining the initial list of priorities", "identifying the priority space" and " future-oriented prioritizing ". Also, the components of this model include functional priorities in addition to thematic priorities, prioritizing based on non-economic approaches, no conflict of interests of individuals and institutions, no path dependency, vertical policy coordination, long-term approach, participatory, systemic, the use of quantitative methods of futures studies, qualitative methods and robust planning method.

The story of technology confrontation and the fear of new technologies has a long history. The fact that weaving machines first entered the factories was a source of concern for workers and their uprisings, followed by radio, cell phones, Bluetooth technology, social networks, and dozens more, against which serious resistance from policymakers or public was seen. In this paper, the researchers intend to analyze the phobia of biotechnology and in particular the technology of transgenics in a futuristic way. This article, after examining the past situation and analyzing the positions of GMO actors, rethinks policy making from social perspective to dealing with transgenic products using a causal analysis approach. Finally, researchers address deeper, broader, transformative strategies with considering various stakeholders at levels of decision- making.

Due to the complexities of energy scenario planning and the need for library studies and extensive quantitative and qualitative models, scenario planning is not possible in some internal studies due to research limitations. On the other hand, it is also problematic to use global scenarios without the necessary changes for domestic conditions, due to Iran's specific energy drives. Accordingly, the main purpose of this study is to develop energy scenarios for Iran based on the intersection of global energy scenarios and internal uncertainties of Iran's future energy, using an innovative combination of incasting scenario approach and morphological analysis. In this regard, after identifying the factors affecting Iran's energy future based on library studies and exploratory interviews, key uncertainties of Iran's energy future were obtained using delphi method, cross impact analysis and MicMac software, which included sanctions and the type of Iranian energy market. In addition, after reviewing global energy scenarios from reputable international institutions, based on the views of the focus group, the scenario of the World Energy Council 2060 was selected as the selected scenario. Then, based on the opinions of experts, with the help of morphological analysis logic and Wizard scenario software, three scenarios "Apocalypse Now", "New Age" and "Interstellar" were identified as compatible scenarios for Iran's energy future and developed with an incasting approach. Policy recommendations were also tailored to each scenario, and based on the results of this study, it is recommended that researchers examine the robustness of the country's energy science and technology priorities such as solar energy, wind energy and hydrogen energy in the scenarios resulting from this study.

One of the applications of P460NH micro-alloy steel is its use in pressure vessel tanks. Electrode E8018-G can be used for welding  this steel. In this study, to obtain the optimal welding parameters, the arc process based on ASME IX standard was used. Then, by sampling from the weld section, Vickers hardness test was performed and hardness profiles were drawn in different areas. Then the microstructure of each area was examined and compared with the hardness test results. The corrosion behavior of the heat affected zone, weld zone and base metal was investigated separately using the TOEFL polarization test in a 3.5% solution of NaCl. The results showed that the weld zone had the highest percentage of perlite (62%) and the base metal had the highest percentage of ferrite (‌73%). Also, the heat affected zone has the highest hardness number (298) and the base metal has the lowest value (210) in the Vickers scale. Evaluation of corrosion behavior of different areas also showed that the heat affected zone has the highest corrosion potential (-.651v) and the lowest corrosion current density (1.75×10-5 A/cm2). This is while the base metal has the lowest corrosion potential (-.691v) and the highest corrosion current density (1.2×10-6 A/cm2) compared to the weld metal and the heat affected zone.

According to the widespread use of aluminum alloys in the oil and gas and petrochemical industries and their low corrosion resistance in corrosive environments, it is necessary to make the surface of these alloys resistant to corrosion using a appropriate coating method. In this research, the coating method in an aqueous environment in an autoclave on the surface of 6061 aluminum alloy was used and its corrosion resistance was investigated. The cleaned samples were placed in an autoclave. Then, by controlling the temperature, time and pressure, an oxide / hydroxide coating was created on the surface. X-ray diffraction (XRD) patterns showed that the coating generally contained an AlO(OH) phase. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM ) images of the coating surface showed that the cubic nanocrystals were densely formed throughout the surface. Vickers microhardness test also showed that the coating was soft and had no effect on the surface hardness. However, the polarization curves show that the corrosion current density of the generated substrates is significantly reduced and the corrosion potential is more positive. As the parameters of autoclave temperature, time and pressure increase, the coating thickness increases and the corrosion current density decreases. It was also concluded that the coating method in the aqueous environment inside the autoclave in liquid and immersed state is a more desirable method due to the higher autoclave pressure than the water vapor state. This indicates that the corrosion resistance of 6061 aluminum alloy has been significantly increased by the use of steam coating.

It seems that researchers have not yet paid attention to the strategic energy security documents of leading countries with a comparative approach. Accordingly, The purpose of this article is a comparative study of energy security strategies and policies of selected countries to provide lessons learned for energy security in Iran. The approach of this research is comparative study and its purpose is descriptive-comparative based on articles, books and strategic report. The sample available in this study includes eight countries including leading countries in energy security indicators i, including the United States, Japan, Denmark, and some of Iran's regional competitors, including Turkey, the Israeli regime, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Qatar, have been selected. this study, after examining the research issue, the similarities and differences of the studied countries from the perspective of energy security policies have been compared. The findings of this study show that the most important lessons learned from successful countries in the field of energy security include the constant attention of governments and the understanding of the need to improve energy security in the minds of government officials; Attention of planners and policy makers to changes in the concept and dimensions of energy security and review of strategies in the energy sector according to the new conditions ahead; Paying attention to the context and capacities of each region in energy security policy; Coordination, compatibility and alignment of policies and strategies developed in the field of energy security; And specific follow-up and monitoring mechanisms to strengthen energy security.

This study is conducted to review the recent developments in the methods applied to the researches and projects of futures study. This study began with a library research among the selected articles published in relation to the new methods credential scientific journals. Having explained a detailed description and examples of new methods, the researchers assessed the methods for futures study and the proposed paradigms. Afterwards, we focused on the concept of post-normal and presented a concept called post-method. It can be useful for solving futures study in the complex space ahead. The basis of the idea of post-method underlies the fact that due to the increasing complexity of local and global conditions and the progress of the factors affecting these problems, it is necessary to go beyond the traditional methods and provide a new concept for solving problems and a new definition for methods. To be able to respond to these growing complexities. The results revealed that the recent advances in the methods used in futures study are influenced by the four sources of information technology including the World Wide Web, combination of methods and movement towards post-normal conditions and naturally to post-method. It is noteworthy that the concept of post-normal and post-method can cover the other three sources.

Crisis management has always been a concern of strategic and foresight researchers from a pragmatic point of view, so the question of research can be expressed in how the interaction and contingency planning of future crisis response programs are addressed. In this regard, the overall goal of the research is to provide an alternative-looking approach and to use foresight tools to arrive at a contingency model for crisis response. The present research strategy is in the framework of qualitative and applied research, and due to the lack of expansion of the existing knowledge in the subject matter, a library approach was used; This study is based on Oucoli and Sabram's (2017) Guide. Silva (2015) research process has been used for comprehensive and correct selection of articles; Silva method consists of 4 stages of planning, selection, extraction and implementation. The research findings were compiled based on answering the systematic review questions of the 54 selected articles; The most cited articles and the most cited authors were collected. These findings have resulted in a six-step contingency model with a consistent strategy and scenario-based approach that includes: scenario, response strategy, implementation plan, support operational plan, contingency plan, and budget.

Studying and planning to achieve a better economic future, plays an important role in the thinking of economic policymakers in every country, including Iran. But the achievement to the desirable and sustainable future requires answering these questions that the Iran's economy has been influenced by what factors and policies? And what factors determine the future trend of Iran's economy? Accordingly, in this research, the study on past trends of the Iran's economy and the identification of factors that affecting the Iran's economy have been considered, in order to write the scenarios for the Iran's future economy and its security impacts. For this purpose, critical uncertainty approach were used.To write the future scenarios, Iran's economic factors with critical uncertainty were identified by using questionnaires that completed by economic experts. Accordingly, two uncertainties of "international economic sanctions" and "oil price" were selected as the critical uncertainties.
Based on the results of these scenarios, the Iran's economy will face a decline in economic growth in three scenarios, and in only one scenario, conditions for economic growth and development will be provided without a serious impediment. From a security point of view, in three scenarios and due to changes in the economy, Iran will face security problems with regional, transnational and internal sources.

In this study, atmospheric corrosivity class of Tehran city was determined using environmental data and corrosion rate of standard specimens during one year exposure time. Accordingly, corrosion rate of Aluminum, Copper and Zinc standard helical and flat specimens were analyzed after each time intervals. Meanwhile, other influential parameters such as deposition rate of Chloride and Sulphur dioxide and time of wetness were evaluated.

In the electroplating process can be well used by Add-on complex instrument; the percentage of alloy elements in the alloy coating can be controlled. While this is to create of composite coatings with neutral particles cannot easily type and percentage of sedimentary particles can be controlled. In this study, to control percent neutral particles in composite coatings of the property and zeta potential factors that have been used. Obtained coverage of metallurgical structure and chemical composition with a microscope SEM, EDX and XRD were analyzed. The results showed that increase of pH of solution caused decrease of zeta potential. Therefore, both pH and current density are effective parameters on particles content of nanocomposite coatings. By studying the effect of the zeta potential and the factors affecting it, it can be concluded that by specifying the optimal conditions from the view of the weight percentage of the neutral elements inside the coating and electroplating conditions, there is the possibility of the production of a nanocomposite coating with high quality and no additives.