behrooz sari sarraf

The purpose of this research is to analyze the role of air pollutants (nitrate and nitrite oxide) in the changes of 24-hour temperature and precipitation elements in Tabriz synoptic station. The materials and data used in this research are from two different sources. The temperature and precipitation data were obtained from the tabriz synoptic meteorological station hourly for a period of 31 years and the data of Tabriz air pollutants (nitrate and nitrite oxide) were obtained from Tabriz environmental organization. In connection with the air pollutant data, it can be said that these data have been simulated by the multi-layer perceptron neural network machine learning R programming language. In the logistic model, temperature and precipitation were selected as dependent variables and nitrate and nitrite oxide concentrations were selected as independent predictor variables. All data were included in the analysis and the logistic model was significant. The chi-square in nitrate and nitrite oxide was calculated as 348.01, which was significant at the error level of less than 0.05. The aforementioned independent variables have been able to correctly explain between 84 and 60 percent of the changes that led to the increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation. 78.2% of the months that had no changes were correctly classified, and 97.2% of the predictions about temperature and precipitation changes were correct. In total, 90.9% of the predictions have been estimated correctly. . The results showed that pollutants have a significant effect on temperature increase and precipitation decrease in Tabriz synoptic station. The highest and lowest levels of nitrate oxide were observed in September and March, nitrite in September and May, temperature in July and January, and precipitation in April and August, respectively

Today, following the drying up of Lake Urmia, new centers for wind erosion activity have been formed in the northwest of the country, and these centers have become the source of dangerous dust production. In the southeastern part of Lake Urmia, the formation of wind erosion centers can lead to irreparable damages from the point of view of nature and human health. In this study, in order to identify wind erosion centers, changes in the water level of Lake Urmia based on the fluctuation pattern of climatic parameters using data The long-term effects of the existing stations in the Urmia Lake watershed were investigated. In order to identify the origin areas of fine walnut production and track dust storms in the studied area, horizontal visibility data below 1000 meters of meteorological data and Lagrangian HYSPLIT model in retrograde mode were used at different stations and at different levels of the atmosphere. It was used regularly and also the highest amount of dust containing 26 pressure tsars (100-1000 hectopascals) and available with a time step of 12 hours. At the same time as the first dust entered the study area, the wind direction was investigated for 24 hours before that. In the studied area (Banab and Malekan cities), the focus of wind erosion was investigated using AOD data from MACC database with a spatial accuracy of 0.125 × 0.125 geographic degrees and a daily time scale. In this study, MODIS Terra and Aqua satellites with a wavelength of 550 nm were used to generate AOD data. Day-by-day review of MODIS satellite images and the implementation of the fine dust characterization index revealed the occurrence of specific dust storms over Urmia Lake and southeast of the lake on different days. Investigations showed that extensive salt dust spreads in all parts of Lake Urmia, including the southeast of the lake in the limits of Bonab city, and the dust in this part is spread in the bed of atmospheric currents to the east and southeast for a distance of more than 140 km. In the northeast direction, they spread over 150 km in 12 hours.

Horizontal vision is the maximum horizontal distance that a person with the naked eye can clearly detect features on the ground.The location of Khuzestan provinc at the top of the basin of dusty winds known as the north wind, which spread dust from the deserts of Syria and Iraq to southwestern Iran, frequently reduces the horizontal visibility in these areas The aim of the present study is to study the trend of horizontal vision changes using horizontal vision data and mean values of aerosol optical depth. The data used in the present study include daily horizontal vision data of synoptic stations in Khuzestan province in the period 1998 to 2020. Ridit statistical method was used to analyze the horizontal vision data. Horizon of view in the studied stations was grouped into five categories and the frequency of each category was determined and the value of Ridit was calculated for each category. Then the relevant diagrams and maps were drawn. Also, the fluctuations of the average monthly AOD in the statistical period under study in the geographical location of meteorological stations were calculated and their values were extracted. Comparison of the graphs of the studied stations shows that in all stations except Masjed Soleiman station, the horizontal visibility has a decreasing trend.

Precipitation is the main component of the hydrological cycle, which is very important in many studies, including those focusing on management of irrigation and drainage systems, crop performance, environmental issues, floods, droughts, etc. Therefore, this study eveluated seven GCMs models of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) regarding the simulation and projection of precipitation changes in the northwest of Iran under three scenarios of SSP in three periods (2021-2050, 2051-2080, 2081-2100) and compared them to the historical period (2014-1985). The trend of precipitation changes was calculated using Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator. The Linear Scaling Bias Correction (LSBC) was used to downscaling the GCMs data and the validity of different models was evaluated using RMSE, MAE and R2 indices. The results of performance evaluation of CMIP6 models showed that among the studied models, MPI-ESM1-2-LR model with an average R2 of 0.86 and RMSE equal to 19.7 at the regional level were more accurate than other models in the simulation of precipitation. The results of projection also showed that precipitation according to SSP1-2.6 scenario will increase by 2.6% in the next three periods and on average in the end of 21st century and at most stations it is significant at the level of 0.01%. But according to SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the amount of precipitation will decrease by 14.5% and 3.6% in the end of 21st century, respectively, with the highest decrease being related to the rainy areas in the southwest of the region. In general, according to different scenarios, in most of the studied areas, the precipitation trend is decreasing until the end of 21st century, and it is necessary for officials and planners to adopt the required strategies to adapt to the resulting climate change.

Vision usually refers to the horizontal distance at which the contrast between a target and its sky background is equal to the threshold of the human eye. In an atmosphere that is standard and without pollution, visibility often varies in the range of 145-225 kms. However, in polluted places, atmospheric visibility is reduced by air pollutants through the dispersion and absorption of fine particles and gases in the atmosphere. In some highly polluted areas, the horizontal visibility can be as low as one kilometer. Due to the adverse effects of air pollution on human life, horizontal visibility has been one of the main concerns in air pollution and climatology studies. The trend of changes in horizontal vision as well as the effects of air pollution on the vision process has attracted the attention of all researchers. The results of many studies have also shown that horizontal vision has a negative correlation with public health, especially in developing countries. One study also found that horizontal vision was associated with an increase in deaths and cardiovascular disease in Shanghai, China. One of the effective climatic phenomena in horizontal view is dust. This meteorological-environmental phenomenon is called a mass of fine dust particles and sometimes smoke emitted into the atmosphere, which increases aerosols and reduces horizontal visibility. The location of southwestern Iran at the top of the basin of dusty winds known as the north wind, which spread dust from the deserts of Syria and Iraq to southwestern Iran, frequently reduces the horizontal visibility in these areas. The aim of this study is to use horizontal vision data, mean values of aerosol optical depth and atmospheric extinction coefficient to study the trend of horizontal vision changes in southwestern Iran between 2000-2020; Therefore, by reviewing the available resources in this field, it is clear that relatively limited methods have been used to study and analyze the process of horizontal vision, among which Ridit analysis is the most widely used and efficient method in this field.Given the importance of the issue, the need for such a study in this area becomes apparent. The study area is southwestern Iran, which includes the political boundaries of the provinces of Khuzestan, Ilam, Lorestan, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari, Kohkiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad. The highest point of this region with an altitude of 4283 meters is located along the northwest-southeast, which is part of the Zagros folds, while the lowest point with a height of -105 is located in the southwest of this region, which (leads to) stretches the Persian Gulf. Also, the area of the study area is 28199 / 42 square kilometers. The data consists of two different types of climatic data, including observational data from meteorological stations and satellite data. Observational data are daily horizontal data of synoptic stations in Ilam, Khuzestan, Chaharmahal Bakhtiari, Kohgiluyeh, Boyer-Ahmad and Lorestan provinces in the period 1998 to 2020. This information is often reported at three-hour intervals. Ridit statistical technique was used to study the horizontal vision trend. Ridit analysis is a useful statistical technique that is widely used in trend study. Ridit indicates the possibility that observation of vision over a period of time is better than distribution of reference vision. Aerosol optical depth index (AOD) and extinction coefficient were also used. Because the aerosol optical depth (AOD) is one of the important parameters in the study of dust and affects the horizontal viewing process. Also, the amount of optical depth can vary with the density of the number of aerosols and the properties of those particles. First, the frequency value of each horizon floor was determined and then the annual Ridit value was calculated for each of the stations studied and the relevant graphs were drawn. By studying the Ridit diagrams of the studied stations, it is clear that in Masjed-e-Soliman, Aligudarz, Dehloran, Khorramabad and Yasuj horizons, the horizon is increasing. Also, in these stations, the trend line is below the reference line until 2009, but from 2009 to 2020, the trend line is above the reference line. But in Shahrekord, Koohrang, Ilam, Do Gonbadan, Boroujerd, Borujen, Ramhormoz, Omidieh, Dezful, Bandar Mahshahr, Bostan, Ahvaz and Abadan stations, the horizontal visibility is decreasing. While in Ilam stations and two domes, there is no change in horizontal vision in the studied years. AOD diagram of the studied stations shows that in Ahvaz, Abadan, Borujen, Boroujerd, Bostan, Dezful, Do Gonbadan, Ilam, Bandar Mahshahr, Koohrang, Omidieh, Ramhormoz and Shahrekord stations, the amount of aerosols is increasing. Unlike 13 previous stations in Aligudarz, Dehloran, Khorramabad and Masjed Soleiman stations, the amount of aerosol has a decreasing trend. By examining and comparing the blackout coefficient diagrams in the studied stations, it was found that the blackout coefficient values decrease in Masjed Soleiman, Aligudarz, Dehloran, Yasuj and Khorramabad stations. But in the next 13 stations of the study area, the rate of blackout increases. After reviewing and studying the Ridit values, the aerosol optical depth index and calculating the extinction coefficient to determine the condition of the horizon in southwestern Iran Horizon was classified into five quality groups: very good, good, medium, bad and very bad. In this study, the trend of horizon vision changes based on daily horizontal data of 18 synoptic stations in southwestern Iran, the amount of AOD changes based on Modis satellite data and also by calculating the extinction coefficient in the mentioned stations were studied. The results showed that in Masjed-e-Soleiman, Aligudarz, Dehloran, Khorramabad and Yasuj stations, in the studied years, instead of decreasing the horizontal vision, we are facing a situation of improving the horizontal vision. While in Shahrekord, Koohrang, Ilam, Do Gonbadan, Boroujerd, Borujen, Ramhormoz, Omidieh, Dezful, Mahshahr, Bostan, Ahvaz and Abadan stations, the horizontal visibility is decreasing. And in these stations, we are faced with a decrease in horizontal visibility, with the difference that this decrease in Bostan, Bandar Mahshahr, Koohrang, Omidieh and Boroujerd stations has a sharp trend and compared to Ahvaz, Abadan, Borujen, Shahrekord, Ramhormoz and Dezful stations have worse conditions. Also, in Ilam and Do Gonbad stations, no change in the horizontal visibility status was observed in the studied years. AOD study in the studied stations showed that in Ahvaz, Abadan, Borujen, Boroujerd, Bostan, Dezful, Do Gonbadan, Ilam, Bandar Mahshahr, Koohrang, Omidieh, Ramhormoz and Shahrekord stations, the amount of aerosol increases. While in other stations, AOD decreases, which indicates an increase in horizontal visibility in these areas. Also, in Masjed-e-Soliman, Aligudarz, Dehloran, Yasuj and Khorramabad stations, the values of the extinction coefficient are reduced. This indicates that in these areas, the horizontal visibility conditions are better than other stations. But in other stations, the values of the blackout coefficient increase and show that in these areas the horizontal visibility is not in the desired condition; Therefore, it can be concluded that in general, in the southwest of Iran, the horizontal visibility trend is decreasing. It is also suggested that this statistical technique be used in other parts of the country to better determine its efficiency.

Precipitation is one of the most important and variable climatic elements that changes in time and place. Critical rainfall at various time scales, especially daily, causes severe damage to human communities in densely populated urban areas and natural ecosystems and affects many arid economies. Earth outgoing long-wave radiation is studied as a significant parameter to detect clouds and estimate this type of precipitation. The current study aims to examine the relationship and analysis of outgoing long-wave radiation variables and precipitation values in Arc GIS software environment for the four cold months 17 statistical years in Iran using AIRS sensor products of Aqua satellite and GPM satellite. Correlation and regression models and confidence interval estimation were used to measure the correlation of long-wave radiation output in predicting precipitation patterns and their changes. According to the results obtained in all months studied, In the whole country, except Caspian Sea basin in January, parts of the central and eastern plateau of eastern Iran, there is a negative correlation of 10 to 92%, Which indicates that the country's atmosphere is humid and prevents the release of outgoing long-wave radiation. In the western rainfall areas of the Zagros Mountains, negative correlations above 70% and outgoing long-wave radiation is less than 260 W⋅m−2 which is due to cloudy and humid atmosphere with precipitation.In December and February, the rainfall areas north of the Caspian Sea basin range have negative correlations of above 50% and OLR less than 235 W⋅m−2 of rainfall and the reason for the lower numerical value north of the Alborz mountain range to predict is the existence of high relative humidity in the region, which is the cause of less outgoing long-wave radiation output of the earth.

As a core of wind speed, Low Level Jet (LLJ) of the Persian Gulf is made on the Persian Gulf and its surrounding in the low levels of the atmosphere during the hot period of the year.  Known as north wind, this jet appears in the body of a more extensive current of wind with the northern, northwestern, southern, southeastern direction. North wind often blows from the mountainous regions of Turkey and Iran to the southern regions. Except for topographic reasons, the formation of this wind is influenced by hollow topography of low regions of Mesopotamia and Khouzestan appearing as a corridor. Reaching the Persian Gulf, this phenomenon is intensified as the water area of the Persian Gulf is besieged as a low hollow by Zagros Mountains and Arabic Peninsula aggravating the wind.

1

Snow is a vital component of the Earth's climate system because of its interaction with the energy flux and surface moisture on a local to global scale. This parameter significantly increases the relationships with radiation at higher latitudes. Analyzing changes in the amount of snow is essential for the assessment of the impacts of climate variability of a region. Snow cover has major effects on surface albedo and energy balance, and represents a major storage of water. The snow pack strongly influences the overlying air, the underlying ground, and the atmosphere downstream. Snow cover duration influences the growing season of the vegetation at high altitudes. A shortening snow season enhances soil warming due to increased solar absorption. While the importance of information on mountain snowpack is clear, obtaining these measures remains challenging. This is in part because snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) are both spatially and temporally variable, and mountain regions are generally difficult to access. Snow depth is one of the key variables for understanding the relationship between hydrological cycles. The flow of many rivers, especially during the warm period of the year, is mainly due to snow accumulation, which varies depending on the amount of snow melting in the time series. As mentioned, snow is an important hydrologic variable and acts as a water source in many parts of the world, especially Iran. In Iran, mountainous regions act as water suppliers for arid and semi-arid areas around them, and the coincidence of these conditions is one of the most important reasons for the creation of aqueducts in the country. This study, using the ECMWF data base of the ERA Interim, evaluates the trend and slope trend of snow depth (SD) in northern Iran. The achievements of this research can be useful for studies on climate change, water resources, flood, and agriculture. As a step toward addressing this challenge, we evaluated Methods to increase the efficiency of snow surveys and to enhance remotely derived estimates.
2

In this study eleven districts of North Khorasan, Golestan, Mazandaran, Gilan, Tehran, Alborz, Qazvin, Zanjan, Ardebil, East Azarbaijan and West Azarbaijan have been studied. Interim was produced by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). The database is available as an hourly basis since 1979. In this study, the spatial resolution of 0.125 × 0.125 degrees arc for the period 1980-2016 was used. Non-parametric Mann-Kendall and Sen's Slope methods were used to evaluate the trend and trend slope of snow depth.
3

The assessment of the depth of snow in northern Iran in January shows that only 0.063% of the northern zone of the country has a significant increase in the level. These areas are more in the northwest of Iran on the border with Turkey, areas with no significant trend. An increase of 3.82% of the total study region has come from this month. These areas are located in the North Khorasan Provinceand near Bojnurd. Areas with increasing trend at 0.05, 0.01 and 0.001 levels have not been observed in northern zone of the country. The northwest regions of Iran on the border between Iran and Turkey, which show an increasing depth of snow, can be attributed to climate change affecting the systems leading to northwest Iran, with snow depth rising. January showed the lowest amount of snow depth for me-Kendall in winter. In this month, the maximum declined trend was 5.58 and the average trend was -14.3. Also, the average slope of the calculated trend in January was 0.03. This indicates that the depth of the snow with a negative slope of 0.07 cm is decreasing.
4

The results show that snow depth in the north of Iran in winter is more than 96% of the studied area with decreasing trend. The significant decrease trend at the level of 0.001 in the winter is the maximum trend, and from January to March, the size of areas under the territory of this level increase the meaning of the trend, so that in January, February and March, respectively, 47.99, 56.08, 71.82 percent of the area of the northern zone of Iran has fallen into a declining trend at a probability level of 99.99 percent. Winter season of the Iran regions in the northwest and east, the increasing snow depth was observed that this trend is not incremental but significant. The maximum decreasing trend is snow depth in the provinces of Tehran, Qazvin, Zanjan and East Azarbaijan. In end of April areas with no significant decreasing trend with more than 51% of the same areas. The pattern of snow depth in the spring follows the same pattern in the winter. The average slope of the trend has also declined in line with the trend slowdown in April. On the contrary, the decreasing trend in autumn is based on the statistical results obtained in the study period. Snowfall increases in autumn in October and November, unlike other months in the northern regions of Tehran and southern Mazandaran province, especially in the central Alborz region.

In this research, the impact of sea surface temperature on precipitation variation in southern part of Iran is examined using monthly data from meteorological and water resource institute during 1974-2005. The majority of precipitation occurs during the rainy season from October to May. Regional spatial precipitation on variability was identified by Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF), applied to deterended monthly precipitation anomaly data. The first and second components, which determine 54 to 82.7% of the variance of the total precipitation from October to May were selected for the study. To study the rainfall variations, SST anomaly, moisture flux, geo-potential height and sea level pressure were analyzed for wet and dry years of first and second mode of EOF. The pattern of sea surface temperature anomaly for wet and dry years shows that the sea surface temperature of Indian Ocean has an important role on precipitation variation over the south part of Iran. In the first mode of EOF which represent 50% of total variance the positive (negative) sea surface temperature anomaly is in the East (west) part of Indian Ocean during wet (dry) years and it is associated with the equatorial easterly (westerly) moisture flux anomaly. In the second mode of EOF the SST anomaly over the Arabian Sea is positive in the wet years but it is a non-dominant feature for the dry years. The Arabian anticyclone has an important role to transfer moisture in lower level of atmosphere from southern water bodies to the cyclone near Iran and displacement of the Arabian anticyclone to westward (eastward) transports more moisture from southern water bodies to the western, south western (southern and south eastern) parts of Iran.

Drought is a natural disaster, which its intensity and frequency of occurrence and the affected area and the amount of damage, is more important than other natural disasters. In this study, successive periods of meteorological and hydrological drought were investigated using SPI and SDI index in Sufi Chai and Mordagh Chai basins in the Southeast of Urmia Lake, and the time delay between the two occurrences was identified. Therefore, 10 rain gauges and 7 hydrometric station data was used. Range and area droughts in ArcGIS media were plotted according to the mean-square error minimum using methods of the kriging and IDW and also droughts trend was investigated by classic Mann-Kendall and modified Mann–Kendall droughts methods. The results showed that the occurrence of the two periods of severe and long-term meteorological drought has led to the simultaneous occurrence of hydrological drought in the basins. There is a significant correlation at 99% level between meteorological and hydrological droughts which is stronger for simultaneous occurrence and one month lag time. According to drought zoning maps, the Northwest region has more potential in the terms of frequency and severity of meteorological drought occurrence which is important in the water resources management.

Rainfall is considered as one of the most important inputs of the hydrological systems that its study and measurement in several different conditions such as the prediction of atmospheric condition, designing the hydraulic structures, estimation and modeling of flood is necessary. The purpose of this study was to estimate the amount of 6 hours of rainfall in Urmia Lake basin usinga physical cloud model. The inputs of this model include the high temperature of the cloud which is estimated from the infrared band ofMeteosat. the pressure, temperature and dew point temperature from meteorological stations in time scale is six hours . The calibration of the model was conducted by using the observed data of 16 synoptic stations in the basin of Urmia Lake during the statistical period of 2005 to 2011 for six rain events. For comaring the estimated amount of precipitatin by the registered model and amounts in ground stations , the statistical criteria of mean error(ME), mean absolute error(MAE), root mean square error(RMSE) and absolute bias(abias) have been used. The mean of each error criteria has obtained 0.86, 1.61, 2.39 and 0.67 mm respectively. Small amount of error criteria for physical cloud model represents the relatively high performance of this model for 6 hours rainfall estimation in Urmia lake basin .

Familial Mediterranean Fever (FMF) is an autosomal recessive disease. Generally¡ the Mediterranean basin is the region where the first cases of FMF have been identified. The gene responsible for FMF is gene MEFV. Disease occurs due to mutations in the gene MEFV. Our aim was to determine the geographical distribution of the most frequent mutations in Familial Mediterranean Fever Disease in the world.
Material and In this study¡ databases including Google Scholar¡ PubMed¡ Medline¡ Ovid¡ IranMedex¡ Irandoc¡ SID¡ Magiran and published papers were searched with no limitation in time. Then¡ all collected studies without any limitation were assessed to determine relevant studies. At the end¡ world map of the most frequent mutations of FMF was generated by Geographical Information System (GIS) software.
Although more than 290 mutations of the MEFV gene have been described¡ only four mutations (M694V¡ M694I¡ V726A¡ and E148Q) were prevalent among patients with FMF.
The most frequent mutation associated with FMF mutation is M694V all over the world. E148Q mutation was found to be with mild clinical relevance.

Behçet''s syndrome is an inflammatory disorder of unknown etiology that has a unique worldwide prevalence and distribution. The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of Behçet''s syndrome in the world and in Iran using a systematic review and meta-analysis approach.
Material and Data banks of Ovid¡ MEDLINE¡ Rheumatology¡ Google scholar¡ Springer¡ PubMed¡ Science direct¡ Wiley¡ Magiran¡ SID¡ Iranmedex and Irandoc from 1990 onwards were searched. All cross-sectional studies relevant to the prevalence of Behçet''s in the world and in Iran were studied. Prevalence rate of Behçet''s syndrome with 95% confidence limits was calculated. For statistical analysis¡ prevalence rates were entered in the Comprehensive Meta Analysis (CMA) software. The prevalence of Behçet''s was mapped with the Geographic Information Systems (GIS).
In this study¡ 23 articles were finally accepted. The overall prevalence of Behçet''s syndrome in the world was 42.4 per 100000 (95% CI: 0.382 -0.465). Heterogeneity rate with 23 studies was 1127.5¡ and with 21 studies were 490.3. The highest rates were reported from Turkey with the overall prevalence of 4.2 per 1000 (95% CI: 4.073- 4.327).
Our findings showed that the highest occurrence of Behçet''s disease was observed in Turkey¡ Palestine and Iran. It is also¡ however¡ common in Europe¡ America and other Asian countries.

Familial Mediterranean fever (FMF) is an autosomal recessive disease. Generally¡ the Mediterranean basin is the region where the first cases of FMF have been identified. Yearly¡ some people undergo unnecessary surgery¡ due to misdiagnosis of doctors. In this study¡ our aim was to determine the prevalence rate and status of familial Mediterranean fever in the world and Iran which was done using meta-analysis method.
Material and In this study¡ Google Scholar¡ Pubmed¡ Medline¡ Ovid¡ IranMedex¡ Irandoc¡ SID¡ Magiran databases and published written sources were searched without limit of time. Then¡ all the studies were collected without limitation¡ to determine the relevant studies were assessed. After verifying the quality of the studies¡ required data were extracted and analyzed using the method of meta-analysis (random effects model) in the CMA software. In the end¡ world map of the prevalence of familial Mediterranean fever disease was traced by the GIS software.
The primary search identified 400 studies which only 23 studies had the required quality for inclusion in the meta-analysis. Two of the studies were related to Iran.The results of the meta-analysis showed that the overall prevalence rate of familial Mediterranean fever in the world and in Iran along with their 95% confidence intervals (in parentheses) are 0.116% (0.088 - 0.144) and 0.018% (0.001 - 0.037)¡ respectively. Since the studies were limited¡ the overall prevalence rate obtained from Iran does not have the capability of generalization to other regions of Iran.
FMF in the world is prevalent in the Mediterranean and the Middle East region¡ among ethnic Turks¡ Armenians¡ Jews and Arabs¡ respectively. But FMF epidemiology is rapidly changing¡ due to population migrations from Mediterranean countries and the Middle East to the rest of the world and the increasing diagnostic sensitivity. The FMF has to be considered as a worldwide disease¡ even if it initially originated in the Mediterranean area.

The reduction of river flows can be related to several natural and human factors. The reduction of entrance discharge to Urmia lake has significant rate on the reduction of the lake water level. The purpose of this research at the first step is to investigate the effect of climatic parameters such as precipitation and temperature and at the second step, to investigate the effect of human factors on the reduction of river flow of basins Sufichay and Mrdqchay located in the southeast of Urmia Lake.
Matherials and Climate and hydrological change trend were evaluated by Mann- Kendall classic and Modified methods. Then status of weather drought by SPI index and status basins hydrological drought was studied by SDI index in the time periods 3 and 12 monthly and the correlation of two droughts were examined by using Pearson correlation test. The status of vegetation by NDVI index and the status of soil moisture was studied by changing tasseled cap at past and present. Finally the discharge of rivers basin were compared at before and after dam construction and discharge of downstream of Alavian dam with precipitation elements.
The results show that both of the average and maximum discharge is reducing in the area during the statistical period. On trending of temperature and precipitation data both Kendall and Sen's estimator methods have The same results and many of data had non-significant trend and only a small percentage of data was significant. On The other side, from this low percentage the trend type on the precipitation data was different. However the temperature significance trend shows a rise on temperature. In examining meteorological and hydrological droughts the characteristics of o basins, SPI and SDI index have showed that both study scales indicate, two long periods of droughts during the same period and there was a significant relationship between two droughts. This relationship was for simultaneous 1 to 6 monthly delays. In the appraisal of the relation of vegetation status and soil moisture of basins in 1985 and 2006 the space of vegetation area has increased in both basins in 2006. The soil moisture has increased because of more absorption of rain water by the plants. The average comparison of discharge of Sufichay and Mrdqchay basins showed however that the discharge of two basins has declined after dam construction but the discharge of dam downstream shows more reductive variation. The multiple regression model also showed a strong correlation between basins downstream discharge with dam however, the correlation of discharge with precipitation had been non-significant.

Phenylketonuria (PKU) is a metabolic error which is caused by the deficiency of phenylalanine hydroxylase (PAH) inverting phenylalanine to tyrosine. This disease is the most common form of hyperphenyalaninaemia stow which is inherited in a form of a predominant autosomal. Therefore, the aim of this study was to investigate the distribution of occurrence of phenylketonuria disease in the world by using the systematic review and meta-analysis.
Material and The national and international databases such as Medline, CINAHL, Embase, PubMed and OVID, Google scholar, IranDOC, IranMedex, SID, Magiran, have been searched from 1990 onwards, without language restrictions and by using the key words: phenylketonuria, prevalence, incidence, congenital diseases. A total of 304 articles related with this topic were found. Finally, 62 studies were accepted. Data were analyzed by using Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software at 95% confidence level. The distribution of diseases was shown by using Geographic Information System software on the world map.
The findings showed that in 100000 people, the best estimate of the disease prevalence of phenylketonuria is 11.83 (95% CI: 10.22- 13.44) and the best estimate of the incidence of this disease is 8.2 (95% CI: 6.37- 10.03) in the world. The distribution of phenylketonuria disease has the highest rate in Europe and Asia and lowest rate in Africa and America, respectively.
According to the findings of the present study, it can be said that there is a wide variety in the occurrence of phenylketonuria in the world and recent studies have confirmed his. Therefore, because of the irreversible consequences of the disease, the development of the appropriate training and control programs is recommended to reduce the occurrence of the disease.

The effect of atmospheric phenomena on the earth and nature and consequently on the human life has reached to the extent that lack of management and knowledge in this sector will cause great expenses in this part. The study area with regard to its dominant topographic and climate condition is not excluded from this rule and each year (in watery seasons) the occurrence of heavy rains causes flood, landslide and erosion of fertilized soils. So estimation of precipitation distribution in the region can help the managers substantially to provide proper planning to prevent the damage. In this study, firstly by using geo statistical methods, while the average precipitation of the areas with no station was estimated, also their accuracy was calculated by using different statistical methods(MAE, MBE, and MSE Error). Based on the obtained results weighted inverse distance methods, linear, circular and exponential kriging threshold in the study area had respectively better interpolation results than the other methods. Therefore, with attention to the results, for modeling rainfall and estimating the mean rainfall in the regions with no station, weighted inverse distance method was used. Therefore the monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation of the study area were prepared. So the studies showed that Caspian Sea systems has the greatest effect on the study area in October, November and December months(autumn season) and causes heavy precipitations in the region.

The main aim of this article is the synoptic study of thunderstorm ram falls in southern Aras basin. For this purpose, we extracted thunder and shower rainfalls of six stations of Maku, Khoy, Ardebil, Parsabad, Ahar and Jolfa for the time period of 1986-2003. Using synoptic maps, we analyzed those shower rainfalls resulting from cold front entrance in stations under study. Results indicated that the most important causes of shower rainfalls in this region are two factors, namely, local instability caused by local factors during warm seasons and the entrance of cold fronts to the area during cold seasons. Among the stations studied, Maku receives more precipitation thanks to its higher elevation, and also locating on the path of western atmospheric system.

In order to determine consumptive use of water for plants, management of irrigation and other agricultural studies potential evapotranspiration is requird. However, commonly used prediction methods have not been corrected for regions. For determining the best model for culculation of potential evapotranspiration in Ahar station, evaporation pan potential evapotranspiration values were compared applying different methods.results showed that Turc, Thornth-waite, Christianseen-Hargreaves (RA) and Blaney-Criddle methods have best correlation with pan potential evapotranspiration values than other, applicable technigus.

Salt domes that are studied in Goosheh dagh region, donot fit within the framework of drainage basin and/or urban boundaries.Accordingly, the sample have been selected randomly. We have focused on natural characteristics of the study area initially, followed by the study of pedology, the landuse of saline surfaces, the general trend of erosion and deposition and vegetation cover. The main goals of this study are: The analysis of salty and fresh water segregation in Aji-Chai River basin, and finding the soil quality correction methods. Following are the correction measures of hydrographic networks of salt domes:-The estabilishment of large dams at the entrance of saline courses into fresh waters, and-The prevention of salinity of groundwaters.The results of studying the hydrography of salt domes on southern slopes of Goosheh Dagh indicate that if the salinity of main stream is prevented, we could irrigate vast areas for cultivation which will have positive effects on the economy of the area.

Climate and its related parameters such as precipitation, temperature, moisture, and so on, and also their probable changes during a certain period play a major role in human living environment. Therefore, through the recognition of these elements and the relevant changes using quantitative and statistical models, there will be provided the possibility of sustainable utility of the nature.In the existing study, we have used the precipitation records of synoptic stations of Iran for a long term period, after retrieving the data and applying homogeneity tests. Using the SIAP equation, we have drawn zoning map of Iran based on standardized values and the coefficient of variation of precipitation have been studied and finally the coefficients of variation map of Iran has been prepared. According to the results obtained, in the years 1966 and 1973 all over Iran has experienced droughts and since 1995 until 2001 a very long desiccation in most parts of Iran has dominated. Also the studies indicate that the relationship between height and precipitation in Iran has a high rate of uniformity and the study should be carried out in a regional basis, because there is no correlation between precipitation and height in some parts of Iran. For example, the Caspian Sea shores experience higher amounts of precipitation despite their lower elevation, and can be regarded as one of the precipitation poles of Iran. The reason is that the rainfalls in Caspian shorelines are generally derived from convective and dynamic rising rather than orography. The effective factor in Iran's precipitation in winters is the emergence of western air masses and the existence of subtropical Azure high pressure, and in summer the dominance of dry periods.