mahdi zarghami

Water is one of the limiting factors for the development of the country's agricultural economy, and the correct way to allocate this input among different agricultural activities to improve its efficiency is one of the main goals of policymakers in the agricultural sector. Improving water efficiency can be a suitable criterion for identifying an appropriate water allocation policy in each region.This study utilized the Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) technique to investigate the effects of various water-pricing policies in the Ajabshir Plain. Data were collected through simple random sampling and face-to-face interviews with farmers during the agricultural year (1400-1399). Four scenarios were implemented regarding the price and quantity of water consumed for major agricultural products, such as wheat, barley, potato, and onion, as well as major horticultural products, including grape, apple, almond, and walnut.The results indicated that, for all selected products, increasing the water price in the most of applied scenarios led to an increase in cultivation area, reduction, and productivity. Based on the Net Benefit per Drop (NBPD) index, walnut with 187,910 Rials per cubic meter of water, almond with 180,247 Rials per cubic meter of water, and potato with 83,827 Rials per cubic meter of water had the highest index values. According to this study, increasing the price of water and modifying cultivation patterns while considering the principles of sustainable development are effective strategies to enhance water productivity. Additionally, efficient water demand management can help to prevent waste.

Currently, numerous sub-basins located in the Urmia Lake Basin (ULB) are experiencing water shortages. Gadar River basin is one of the most important basins of the ULB in which proper water allocation and management are paramount of importance. A decision support system based on a water evaluation and planning system (WEAP) could be highly beneficial in water allocation plans at the basin scale. In this research, the WEAP-MABIA model has been used to analyze and simulate water supply and demand in the three major catchments of Gadar River basin. The year 2009 was chosen as the base year of modeling, all nodes of supply and resources were created, and the rainfall-runoff model was simulated. Then, the Gauss-Levenberg-Marquardt optimization algorithm, embedded in the PEST tool, is implemented for calibration. The efficiency of the model is proved by the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for the calibration and validation period, which is ranged from 0.68-0.87. Ultimately, several management strategies such as a slight increase in irrigation efficiency, fallow implementation, and cultivation of low-demanded were employed to investigate the sustainability of water resources in the Gadar River basin. The results revealed that simultaneous implementation of %10 fallow along with 5% increase in irrigation efficiency could enhance the water supply reliability, compare to status que, in Oshnaviyeh, Naqadeh and Hasanlu basins %12, %19, and %11 respectively. Hence, this scenario, with decreasing the unmet demand, would play a major role to ameliorate the water shortages in the study area.

In recent decades, increasing population, and then water demand intensified have led to exploitation of groundwater resources.Lack of water along with its lack of proper management and conflicts between its sharing stakeholders. Often in most of these conflicts, the amount of water demand by the stakeholders is more than the amount of available water. Therefore, the management of underground water and withdrawals should be such that in addition to meeting the needs of consumers in a fair manner, the stability of the aquifer should also be taken into consideration. For this purpose, bankruptcy theory, which is one of the cooperative game theory approaches, has been used to allocate water among the Stakeholders. Bankruptcy methods include Proportional bankruptcy(P) Constrained Equal Award bankruptcy(CEA) Constrained Equal Loss bankruptcy(CEL) Talmud(TAL) Piniles(PIN) and Adjusted Proportional bankruptcy (AP). The study area in this study is Damghan plain at the Semnan province. The annual water requirement of this region is about 110 million cubic meters and the annual water withdrawal from the aquifer is about 87 million cubic meters. In this study,10 stakeholder regions from the agriculture, urban and industry sections are considered. The results obtained from bankruptcy proceedings have been valuated by the indicators of majority voting, stability in behavior, groundwater level taking into account uncertainty, and the integration of previous indicators. According to the results, the CEL method is selected as the best method with stability in the same behavior (level of satisfaction) among stakeholders, resulting in groundwater level higher and the highest β index.

The use of a systematic view has increased to deal with social and environmental problems in recent years. Recently, various models have been developed to address urban water issues. Most of them are focused on runoff and storm water management and few have addressed the problems of the Drinking water system. However, the lack of an effective model that supports complex and multi-objective urban water system in terms of management and decision-making is felt. This article focuses on the importance of a sustainable approach to the conventional approach in urban water management and the need to change attitudes due to the current state of water resources. In this paper a novel system dynamics model has been developed, taking into account the technical, economic, social, environmental and government subsystems that simulate and predict the results of urban water management measures. The results of the implementation of the proposed model on the city of Isfahan showed that the model has a high precision in simulating system condition. The model error rate in simulation of different parameters is less than 5%. Therefore, the model can be used as a tool for analyzing different management strategies before implementing and spending time and cost to assist decision makers.

The water supply network is one of the most critical infrastructures of human societies, which could cause illness or death in many consumers due to its expanding nature. Water pollution is one of the ways of spreading biological pollutants among the population, which is known as bioterrorism today. Biological contamination usually occurs with the use of pathogens and biotoxins. Therefore, recognizing the vulnerable stages of the water supply network against various pollutants is of particular importance. In this research, in the first stage, a selection of five pathogens (Bacillus anthracis, Cryptosporidiosis, Francisella tularensis, Vibrio cholerae, Shigella) that are more likely to pollute water sources have been made. Thus, employing each component of the water supply system (including raw water source (dam)), Raw water storage tank, water treatment plant, treated water transmission line, treated water tanks, and distribution network (30 scenarios) were defined. In the next step, using multi-criteria group decision-making and employing three main criteria (vulnerability of each water supply stage, the amount of contaminant damage power, the amount of contaminant risk in each of the water supply stages) and their sub-criteria, the weight of each criterion was determined from the perspective of decision-makers by utilizing GFDM software. After analyzing the scenarios, the risk level of each scenario was ranked. Scenario 26 created the most risk, which consists of introducing the pathogen Bacillus anthracis into the distribution network. The entry of contamination into the distribution network due to high availability and lack of subsequent treatment steps, as well as the slight chance of preventing the contaminant from reaching consumers, can cause many diseases and deaths. Furthermore, it has a high resistance against chloride and is stable in water, so the entry of this contaminant into the distribution network can be dangerous. Considering the existing conditions, recognizing and calculating the risk of different scenarios can lead to readiness and increase the speed of action in response to possible biological attacks.

Since the water resources systems are most affected by the climate change phenomenon, the organizations which manage the social and ecological demands of water can greatly impact the adaptation to this phenomenon. The adaptive capacity of a water resources system is influenced by various factors and the improvement of each of these factors would lead to an increase in the adaptation capacity of the entire system against the climate change and accordingly less vulnerability against it. In this article, the barriers to the adaptation of the water resources system of the Qarrangu basin against climate change have been identified from the perspective of administrative institutions related to water resources management and the causal relationships between these institutions have been investigated. The study was carried out in the framework of qualitative research strategy and based on thematic analysis method and interviewing the key people in the organizations in charge of the water management in the watershed. Using purposeful sampling under the snowball method and conducting 20 interviews, the theoretical saturation was achieved. Aiming at more reliability 2 more interviews were also conducted but no extra information was acquired. The results show that adaptation barriers in the studied basin can be categorized in three main groups; barriers caused by the attributes of actors, by the characteristics of the water resources system structure, and by the environmental characteristics. Finally, using the system dynamic analysis approach, the causal relationships between the barriers have been identified and solutions have been proposed to overcome such.

After about six decades of widespread government interventions, the effects of these measures on the current mechanisms of the water resources management system are undesirable and in some cases, irreversible. Therefore, in recent years, there has been a shift from the focus on the state to a concept of governance, as a system of power distribution, participation, and the use of all social capacities to advance public affairs. One of the frameworks in this regard is the Institutional Analysis and Development framework (IAD), established by Strom. This study, used the IAD framework to evaluate the water resources management system in the irrigation and drainage network of the Sahand dam downstream. The required information was collected through valid documents, observation and interviewing 25 people, including users, managers of water cooperatives and experts of related government organizations. The information obtained through interviews as well as the available documents were analyzed by content analysis method and the results were interpreted in the form of IAD framework. Findings show that due to the subsistence of agriculture in the study area and strong dependence on water resources, free riding in the area interests many; Moreover, inefficient monitoring, and the lack of a proportionate and deterrent punishment mechanism, increase the motivation for infringement. The attraction of the free riding and increasing the motivation to commit violations has weakened the performance of the water resources system of the Sahand Dam downstream network in order to achieve collective action. Accordingly, empowering the local community and water cooperatives in terms of legal power and legitimizing their presence and activities, the participation of the local community in policy decisions to increase the enforceability of policies and Increasing the sense of responsibility in the local community, reforming the laws in the areas of supervision, and deterrent punishment of violators can be considered as policy recommendations of the present study.

Excessive water extraction from aquifers in arid and semi-arid areas poses a serious threat to natural resources and the environment. Damghan's critical forbidden plain has faced a drop in groundwater level in recent years. In this study, the agent-based model has been used to simulate the behavior of effective stakeholders in the region. First, the agent-based model is considered based on the key stakeholders of the region (farmers are the most important consumers of groundwater in the region, Regional Water Company and Agriculture- Jahad), characteristics, behavior, characteristics of the environment, how the interaction between the agents and the environment (Damghan aquifer). Information about exploitation wells and characteristics of the dominant cultivation in the region is related to 1397. To identify the behavior and characteristics of the agents, a visit to the area and interviews with experts and farmers have been done. The characteristics, behaviors, and interactions of agents are expressed by if-then rules or logical operators or by formulated equations. Then, management scenarios in the study area have been studied for 10 years. The results show that the simultaneous implementation of four projects of installing smart meters, modifying well licenses, promoting new irrigation systems, and establishing production cooperatives while maintaining farmers' net incomes will reduce water withdrawal 44% compared to the base scenario. Also, as a result of the implementation of these four projects, the irrigation method of 4000 hectares of agricultural lands will be changed to pressurized irrigation.

In this research, System Dynamics (SD) modeling was developed for facilitates the integrated and sustainable management of water and soil resources and improving the understanding of watershed systems in the Hableh-Rud River Basin. Reference diagrams were created to represent causal relationships and feedbacks. The conceptual model, included physical, economic, and social sub-systems, was created based by causal relationships and feedbacks. The model of stocks and flows run in the Vensim software environment. The model is comprised of Model verification was carried out through extreme condition tests and behavior reproduction test. Having the Nash-Sutcliff and R2 coefficients with greater values than 0.62 and 0.63, respectively, the SD model satisfactorily simulates all variables. Different scenarios of vegetation management, climate, water resources management, and cropping patterns were compared to the outputs of the existing condition. The results of scenario analyses for a 30-year period show that the agricultural water use efficiency scenario, as the best scenario, increases groundwater and water infiltration volume by 14.3 and 11.1 percent, respectively. With regard to the erosion and sedimentation variables, rangeland restoration activities were chosen as the best scenario, with 7.12 and 5.24 percent reduction. The greatest reduction in nitrogen and phosphorous loss, 8% and 6.4% reduction could be achieved by implementing the rangeland restoration scenario. From an economic perspective, payment for 50% of the ecosystem services, with about 46 percent improvement compared to the current condition, was determined as the best scenario. Stakeholders expressed their highest willingness to participate in the farm management activities with the accumulated score of 85.6 for public acceptance index. The SD model is a beneficial approach for stakeholders understanding of the causal relationships and feedbacks in the system.

Over the last few years, our country has been facing to the water crisis. Therefore, this is important and necessary to creating a fair balance between available freshwater resources and the amount of demand and consumption in communities. That is why water resources proper management and advanced methods development has an essential role in the supply of freshwater. The purpose of present research is to evaluate the quality of the water in the Qanat of the Tabriz University and provide a suitable purification system for the exploitation of that water in the sports complex of the university to properly water resources management and reduce consumption. For that goal, in the first step, according to the results of qualitative experiments of Qanats water, 18 scenarios were proposed, for comparing and choosing the best candidate, it has been taken four main criteria and 13 sub-criteria. In this study, multi-criteria group decision making, TOPSIS method, and Simple Additive Weighting method (SAW) have been used. Which GFDM software has been used to analyze multi-criteria group decision making. Finally, according to the decision makers’ results, the value of each criterion was calculated and analyzed; and it was found that the H scenario was the best choice of the decision makers' point of view was reverse osmosis as a desalination method, sand filter, cartridge filter, and ultra-filter was the best choice for pre-treatment and chlorination.

Population growth and population needs, including the need for food, necessitates the development and implementation of policy solutions based on reducing the pressure on water resources. Especially when the notion of food security and self-sufficiency policies for strategic commodities have been the focus of attention in higher policies of the country. One of the most effective solutions is to use a diet that has low water demand. On the other hand, considering some deficiencies in the current diet of the country; it is necessary to change it and design a healthy and sustainable diet that simultaneously promotes the health of the community and reduces its environmental effects (such as water footprint). In this study, the current dietary pattern and three alternative food baskets are evaluated by the multi-criteria group decision-making taking into account criteria including health (energy and protein intake from the diet), environment (water footprint), the economic cost of the diet, and social acceptance of the diet. Finally, the desired dietary pattern and its effects are introduced. Also, to analyze the uncertainty of some data, such as the price of products, and to create random numbers, tools such as Central Limit Theorem have been used. One of the most important outcomes of this study is the weakness of the current diet compared to other diets from environmental, health, and economic perspectives. The results also showed that designing diets, while improving health, can lead to an annual reduction in water consumption, which can lead to food security in the country.

In recent years, reverse osmosis method has played a major role in desalination of brackish and saline waters. The purpose of this study is to provide a proper desalination system for the use of aqueduct water in the University of Tabriz for health consumption in order for proper water management. According to the results of qualitative experiments, in the first step, the reverse osmosis desalination system was selected and designed. Through that, according to the different types of membranes and pre-purifiers, 15 scenarios were evaluated by 4 main criteria (economic, technical, environmental and social) and 6 sub-criteria. With the help of water application value engine (WAVE) software, the scenarios were modeled based on the opinion of decision makers and the weight of each criterion was calculated. Finally, group fuzzy decision making (GFDM) software was used to analyze group multi-criteria decision making to determine the best scenarion. In this study, by combining the WAVE and GFDM software the opinions of officials and experts are directly applied in the design and selection of the treatment system, leading to increase in the users’ satisfaction. Finally, the results show that the M scenario is the best choice of the decision-makers' point of view, which includes XLE-440 membranes for reverse osmosis and SFD-2880 ultrafiltration filter. In addition, to more accurately examine the behavior of the scenarios, sensitivity analysis on the parameters has also been performed.

The Iran’s Supreme Water Council (SWC) was established in 2000 with the aim of creating the necessary institutional and organizational bases for the coordination of policies on water supply, distribution and consumption. However, two decades after its inception, the fact that the water management issues are becoming more complex and deeper and the discrepancies in the policies, actions, and their consequences are widening, raise the questions that; to what extent has the SWC been successful in its missions, and to what extent has it had the necessary effectiveness and authority in resolving the conflicts and applying good water governance in the country. Accordingly, the objective of this paper is to present the results and achievements in identifying, reviewing and analyzing the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats facing the SWC and to conclude the strategies and action plan needed to improve the performance of the SWC. The methodology used is based on the formation of an expert working group from different disciplines and sectors and holding brain storming meetings to harvest ideas of stakeholders. Finally the study employed a combination of SWOT technology and matrix technique (IFE-EFE Matrix) to evaluate internal and external factors for analyzing the results. The study identified 11 strengths (S), 10 weaknesses (W), 9 opportunities (O) and 7 threats (T) in regards of the SWC. According to the calculated scores for internal and external factors (i.e. 2.34 and 2.62, respectively), the intersection of these two values in the SWOT diagram located in the “WO” zone, which indicated that the main strategy to be followed to improve the authority of the SWC, would be an adaptive (conservative) strategy. For greater effectiveness and authority of the SWC, a new vision and mission was developed. Also, five sub-main strategies and 21 actions were identified to improve the performance and authority of the SWC. The proposed action plan was tailored to the identified sub-strategies, and then weighted and prioritized. The results indicated that in good water governance and for coordinated policy-making, the spirit of inter-institutional cooperation between government institutions should be accepted as a fundamental principle and the social interactions of the council should be increased. It is also necessary to expand the council's cooperation with ministries within the executive branch, the judiciary branch, the legislative branch, universities, non-governmental organizations, and other stakeholders.

The water crisis caused by rapid population growth, unbalanced economic development, climate change, and inefficient water resources management is recognized as the most significant threat in recent century. Groundwater resources, one of the most important available water resources, have faced many challenges in recent years as 404 out of 609 plains have been declared. The agricultural sector, as the main consumer of groundwater, has played a major role in creating this crisis. In the research, the impacts of different non-strategic crops on groundwater level and farmers’ income have been investigated using long term system dynamics. The Qazvin Aquifer, which has been declared a prohibited plain since 1962, was picked as a case study. After collecting time series data and preparing it, the 15- year causality model was built up using VENSIMPLE software, which calibrated using a genetic algorithm. The results showed that the transfer of water from Taleghan dam to Qazvin Plain helped to reduce ten meters of drawdown during a 15- year period. The impact of 17 different crops on groundwater level and farmers’ net income were researched for Qazvin Plain. The results showed that farmers’ income is most impacted by the grape crop with a high economic water footprint, while groundwater level is most affected by the wheat crop. Next, the influence of the removal of non-strategic crops with high water requirement was evaluated in the plain. The results showed that removing non-strategic crops is selected as optimal scenario by applying four conflict resolution methods in symmetric conflicts.

A system dynamic model is necessary to estimate the existing interactions between Urmia Lake and factors affecting it. In this study, the Predator-Prey model using system dynamics simulation has been developed for Urmia Lake Basin. The main advantage of this model is providing the balanced water allocation between stakeholders in order to have a sustainable water management system for the lake. Due to increasing the area of irrigated lands in the northwest of Iran, having an applicable and up-to-date method to reduce water consumption in agricultural part is unavoidable. A stock-flow model has been designed in this study, in which Urmia Lake and irrigated lands are considered as the prey and predator, respectively. Then, the effects of various factors on the water elevation fluctuations of the lake have been analyzed dynamically and the strategies for reducing the water consumption of agricultural part have been investigated carefully. The results of this study indicate that the reducing irrigated lands by 40%, improve irrigation efficiency by 21% and reducing the area of lake by 20% lead to increasing water level of the lake by 1.7, 0.8 and 0.5 meters, respectively. By applying these policies, the water level of the lake will increase about 4.3 meters and it will lead to better ecological condition.

Empowering human resources in the physical education structure of the Ministry of Education is one of the important issues related to teachers.

The purpose of this study was to identify and explain the model of physical education empowerment in the Ministry of Education of the Islamic Republic of Iran.

The present study was applied in terms of purpose and exploratory-analytical in nature and field. The statistical population was all teachers and physical education teachers of the Ministry of Education of Iran. The statistical sample was determined by 600 cluster sampling method. The data collection tool was a researcher-made questionnaire that identified 30 important experts and influential factors using an open questionnaire and referred to the questionnaire after editing. Structural validity was calculated through factor analysis (67.20) and reliability was calculated through Cronbach's alpha (0.955). Data were analyzed using descriptive and inferential statistics (frequency of data, exploratory factor analysis, confirmatory factor analysis, path analysis and structural equations) (α = 0.05).

In general, six identified indicators (organizational structure, personality, motivation, cultural-social, training-specialty, equipment) were used to explain human resource empowerment in physical education, among which 95% of personality changes Empowerment explained and ranked first and equipment index explained 25% of changes in Empowerment and ranked sixth.The fit indices of the model represent goodness of fit (standard limit) and the validity of the whole construct is confirmed and the identified indices explain well the variable of training strength training.

Balancing the dimensions (formality, focus and complexity) and (size, technology, strategy, and environment) at the Ministry of Education and the continuous training of human resources seems to be an important priority.

Dams are effective in controlling the flood and reducing its damage. But, during the flood, the overtopping and the flow of water from the dam is always threatening it. Therefore, in order to maintain the dam safety against flood and also to maintain the efficiency of the dam, it should be balanced between the water level in reservoir of dam and its overtopping risk. Using the system dynamics, a set of complex, relevant, and effective overtopping factors could be simulated to examine the impact of different scenarios. The current research investigated the effect of different parameters on the overtopping risk on Hajilarchay dam (Northwestern Iran) using the system dynamics and Monte Carlo simulations, and estimated the human losses caused by the dam failure using of 441 and 118 persons for two cases of without warning and adequate warning, respectively. The overtopping risk of 〖2.27×10〗^(-6) was calculated in accordance with the USACE method. Given this risk value, a reliable level for reservoir water is set to 1040.70 meters above sea level, and the agriculture area at the downstream is set 1660 hectares for development. The results also show that the overtopping risk will increase by increasing the life of the dam, especially after 20 years, due to accumulation of sediment and settlement of the dam, and considering too much increase in overtopping risk caused by the change of dam’s spillway in order to save the cost of its construction, then adaptation strategies are provided including reservoir water level control.

This paper studies the performance of model predictive control in improving the management of reservoirs in water transfer line. Model Predictive Control is an optimal modern control which due to its proper function against sudden disturbances has been developed for engineering control problems. One of the main capabilities of the predictive control algorithm is the prediction modeling of the system in optimization function. In this research with using a predictive control algorithm while applying the constraints regarding reservoir and pump stations capacity, an optimal controller is designed for the Zarinehrood transfer line to Tabriz. This network contains a total pipe length of 180 kms with 24 branches which is known as the largest transfer line in the Middle East. In this research the designed controller have been solved for the two objective functions, maintaining the safety water in the reservoirs and reducing the fluctuations in the pump stations. To evaluate the predictive control algorithm performance, the results of the MPC were compared with operator data and another control method called linear quadratic integral control . The obtained results show that the predictive control has been able to perform better than operator data and linear quadratic integral control. While yields high capability to satisfy all constraints while fluctuations in pumping stations have been decreased about 22% and the water in the reservoir tanks maintain the lowest error in the vicinity of the desired volume.The total amount of pumped water over the length of the transmission line has been decreased by 8%.

Ghezel Ozan River Basin is one of the important basin in Iran, which supply people grains requirements. The amount of potential reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) was evaluated with RCP4.5 (low emission) and RCP8.5 (high emission) scenarios on the horizons 2030, 2050, and 2070. The output of four GCM models in CMIP5 and the LARS-WG6 statistical downscaling were used. In this study, the daily historical records of six synoptic stations (namely Zanjan, Mianeh, Khalkhal, Zarrineh, Qorveh, and Bijar) from 1989-2016 were used. Differences of mean ET0 time series in the base and future time periods were tested using the t-test method in three-time scales (i.e. monthly, seasonal, and annual scales) at 5% significance level. Trends of ET0 in the proposed three-time scales were analyzed in the base and 2021-2080 periods with both RCP scenarios using the Mann-Kendall (MK) method at 5% significance level. The effect of significant autocorrelation coefficients was eliminated in MK method. The slope of trend lines was estimated by Sen’s estimator. Results showed in the whole basin, based on the RCP4.5 scenario in the horizons of 2030, 2050, and 2070, the amount of ET0 will be increased by 1.8%, 3.7%, and 5.7%, respectively. These records were about 1.7, 5.4, and 9.1 percent using the RCP8.5 scenario, respectively. The most increase in ET0 was observed for July. The annual ET0 values would be increased in the future in all stations. The mean differences of ET0 in June, July, August, summer, and annual time series with respect to the base time period were significant for all the stations and for all the future periods (under two RCP scenarios). In the future period, according to the both scenarios at all stations, the annual ET0 trend was upward.

Accurate planning for adaptation to climate change is very important in each region. In this study, using the meteorological data of the six synoptic stations in the Ghezel Ozan basin in the period 1989-2016, and by employing the four GCM models, under the two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, data were generated for the horizons 2050. Then, some parameters such as the air temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (ET0), precipitation deficit (PD) during the growing season, dryness intensity were calculated. ET0 was calculated by Pristeley-Taylor (PT) and Penman-Monteith (PM) methods. Then, ET0 obtained from the PT method was calibrated using four Artificial Intelligence methods (namely Eureqa Formulize, ANN, ANFIS and SVM) with PM method for each station. For spatial analysis, three geostatistical methods namely IDW, Kriging, and Cokriging were utilized. The results indicated an increase of 0.9 - 2 ºC in mean air temperature and an increase in precipitation between 27 and 49 mm will be experienced in the future period. Furthermore, ET0 and dryness intensity will be increased at all the stations. The increase in average PD (in the whole basin) will be about 6% to 9%. In average, the rate of increase in agroclimatic indices in the RCP8.5 scenario will be about four percent more than the RCP4.5 scenario. Among the methods of interpolation, the modified Cokriging based on DEM (Digital Elevation Model) showed the more suitable one among others. The length of the growing season will be elongated from 15 to 35 days. No significant changes will be occurred for dryness period. The spatial variation of future climate variables is expected to be not changed comparing the base period.

Modeling socio-hydrological interactions are one of the essential requirements for water resources management in water-stressed areas. The Ardabil aquifer (Northwestern Iran) is one of the restricted aquifers under intense development activities. The water table is dramatically declining and leading the area to an environmental disaster. In this study, a simulation-optimization model has been developed for solving the Ardabil groundwater problem, which simulates groundwater level changes and determines the optimal water exploitation values. These models have been linked by a new method in the MATLAB which provides access to various MODFLOW packages and takes up less memory. The simulation-optimization model has been then linked to an agent-based model, which simulates agents’ behavior and their interactions. For this purpose, firstly the key agents and their desirability have been determined. Then, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to estimate the agents’ desired groundwater exploitation values. In the next step, the best solution using the compromised programming method is selected according to the experts' point of view. Finally, the agent-based model provided the final exploitation values, taking into account social pressure and management rules (incentive and penalties). The results show that groundwater demand is reduced up to 22% in comparison to the initial value. This demand reduction resulted in 90 cm of the increase in the groundwater level for the entire plain.

Regarding the supply of large amount of water demand from groundwater resources on the one hand, and increasing water level drop of the aquifers on the other hand, the importance of groundwater resources management is significantly increasing. Due to the complexities in the socio-ecological systems related to the groundwater resources, there is a need for tools to model these complexities in the form of effective agents’ relations. Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a computer simulation with a comprehensive approach of stakeholders, or agents that interact with each other and with their environment based on certain behavioral principles. In this paper, farmers, effective institutional agents and aquifer behaviors and their interactions in the Shabestar-Sofian plain is modeled using ABM with stakeholder participation through interviews and semi-structured questionnaires. The results of the implementation of five sample scenarios show that if the institutions are properly coordinated and the participation of farmers is attracted, it could be possible to reduce 202 million cubic meters of wells extraction over 10 years, in addition to increasing the income of farmers simultaneously and to compensate about 40 percent of negative groundwater balance. Using this model, a better understanding of the sophisticated system of groundwater resources management can be obtained, stakeholder participation can be attracted, and by defining scenarios in a participatory process, better solutions can be achieved in the decision-making process.

Risk assessment of structures, especially dams, has recently been one of the main topics that are considered by researchers. Risk analysis make possible to estimate uncertainties coming up from randomness of parameters in the models which are applicable in designing process. In this paper, different uncertainties along with flood and wind with various return periods segregated and simultaneously were exploited to mitigate the overtopping risk of Hajilarchay earth dam. To assess the risk in the proposed model, we used Monte-Carlo simulation (MCS) and Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) method with different iterations through system dynamics approach. The results proved the effectiveness of system dynamics approach on overtopping risk assessment for earth dams which showed the influences of different parameters on overtopping risk besides flood and wind. Furthermore, the results showed that opening the bottom outlet of Hajilarchay Dam may reduce the average overtopping risk as much as 9.20 and 4.10 percent due to just flood and due to flood and wind, respectively. In addition results showed that the average overtopping risk estimated from MCS method due to just flood and due to flood and wind were about 4.30 and 3.50 percent, respectively, more than that the results obtained by the LHS method. Also the reliability index obtained by the MCS method was higher than LHS method and MCS method has faster calculation in compare to the LHS. Finally, we can conclude that system dynamics approach along with MCS is a very effective tool to estimate the overtopping risk of earth dams.

Due to the complexities of the urban environment, in recent years flood risk in urban basins in comparison with non-urban basins has increased. Flooding in urban areas, causes damage to buildings and other large urban infrastructure and it slow down or completely hinder traffic system. In this paper, urban flood management to reduce flooding low-impact development techniques, using methods such as porous pavement and infiltration trenches are discussed. For this purpose, using the software EPA-SWMM, in an area of Tabriz municipality, a network of surface water collecting was assessed and with four events at the time of simulation model, it was validated and calibrated. The network collects surface water in the three scenarios underlying the adoption of the final version of the LID by hydraulic capacity of streams and reducing peak flood runoff was investigated. The results showed that the majority of the urban network in flood return periods of 2, 5 and 10 years old, storm water drainage do not have the necessary capacity and respectively 28, 45 and 48 percent of the network will be flooded in critical situations. Well as the LID trenches influence over Porous Pavements for return periods of 2, 5 and 10 years old, in the same condition in about 8 to 10 percent better performance in reducing peak runoff from watersheds and reduce flood risk while increasing groundwater is an important breakthrough as the best and most efficient way of management (BMP) for the study area were identified.