فهرست مطالب masoud homayounifar

productivity is one of the important concepts in the economy, showing the relationship between the use of production factors and produced products. by increasing productivity in the production process, more production can be achieved by using a certain level of input in this study, the effect of economic sectors efficiency on renewable and renewable energy consumption, thermal energy, growth and economic development using approximation of production functions have been studied in three scenarios. the results show that the different parts of totall economic and their productivity in 1353 and 1393 are between 3.175 and 4.59 million riyals. It is therefore the beginning of the productivity of the lower bound productivity of the functional domain.it is observed that there are two sectors of economy, industry, mining and power plants (power plants), even by 30 percent, the overall productivity of the entire economy in the functional domain (3.175).

The present study investigates the effect of coronavirus outbreak and exchange rate and oil price variables on the stock market index using  Markov Switching model during the period 1398/11/30 – 1399/03/27. The results show that exchange rate growth has no significant effect in the high regime of the stock market index and has a negative and significant impact in the low and medium regimes. The growth of oil prices has had a negative and significant effect on all stock market index regimes. Also, in the high regime of the stock market index, the prevalence and increase in the coronavirus cases will lead to a decrease in the stock market index, and on the contrary, in the low regime of the stock market index, the prevalence and increase in the coronavirus cases will increase the stock market index. In the high regime of the stock market index, the coronavirus outbreak can lead to a decrease in the stock market index and the outflow of capital from the stock market and transfer to other parallel markets such as currency and housing can occur, and speculation increases.

The present study examines the determinants of non-performing loans from the public sector with emphasis on fluctuations in asset markets in the period 1397: 4-1384: 1. For this purpose, in order to extract the exchange rate and stock index fluctuations, the Daubechies discrete wavelet transform model has been used. Finally, the Markov switching model has been used to investigate the effect of research variables on non-performing loans from the public sectors. The growth of the oil sector in the country has a negative and significant effect in the high regime and a positive and significant effect in the low regime. Improvement and growth of the service and industrial sectors in all levels and regimes of non-performing loans from the public sector has a negative and significant impact. Also, increasing the size of the government has a positive and significant effect if the non-performing loans from the public sector be in a high level and regime. In the case of sanctions, short-term exchange rate fluctuations, which are mainly due to exchange rate increases, can reduce non-performing loans from the public sector. Exchange rate fluctuations in the conditions of sanctions, if they continue, regardless of the regime and the level of non-performing loans from the public sector, will cause a significant increase in non-performing loans. Also, short-term stock index fluctuations reduce non-performing loans from the public sector in all regimes. the medium-term fluctuations of the stock index, it also reduces non-performing loans from the public sector when the non-performing loans are in the low level. If exchange rate fluctuations are not due to external factors such as sanctions in all periods of fluctuations and all levels of non-performing loans from the public sector, it can increases non-performing loans.

In this research, the role of nominal exchange rate volatility and business cycles on the banking nonperforming loans was investigated by using Markov-Switching model during 2005-2018 using seasonal data. Business cycles were extracted from GDP by using the Hodrick Prescott filter. Also, the wavelet transform model was used to extract nominal exchange rate fluctuations. The results showed that the exchange rate volatility varies in different periods of time and in longer period of time, the foreign exchange rate volatility has a greater negative and significant effect on nonperforming loans of banking network. It shows a dependence of government on banking network. Also, the impact of business cycles depends on the nonperforming loans regime. The sustainability of low regime is bigger than high regime. The results also show that the impact of value added of different sectors of economy varies in different regimes of nonperforming loans. These results indicate that banking system should take into account the value added of different sectors of economy and nonperforming loans regimes which could decrease nonperforming loans.

In this research, the impact of social capital through influencing the efficiency of government expenditure is investigated using three-stage least-squares model in Iran during 2005: Q1 to 2018: Q2. The effects of exchange rate, stock market index and oil revenues on non-performing loans of public and private sectors are also examined. Results suggest that given the increased efficiency of government expenditure, social capital has a significant negative impact on non-performing loans of public and private sectors. In addition, exchange rate has a significant negative impact on banking system’s receivables from public sector and a significant negative impact on banks’ receivables from private sector. Stock market index has no significant impact on non-performing loans of both public and private sector, since stock market is not liquid enough and has low share in financing businesses. Economic growth has also no significant impact on non-performing loans of both sectors, which can be explained by the impact of improvement in business environment and individuals’ purchasing power on their ability to repay their loans. Thus, by stabilizing economy (controlling the fluctuations of exchange-rate, stock market and so forth) and by improving social capital, it is expected that efficiency of government expenditure is increased and non-performing loans of both sectors is decreased.

In addition to typical functions of money such as a medium of exchange, a means of evaluation, and storing the value of goods and services, it also has a symbolic character. Money due to its symbolic character can be used as a social goal in regulating interpersonal and intrapersonal relationships. On the one hand, priming is one of the most important ways to highlight the symbolic aspect of money. On the other hand, trust is one of the essential aspects of human relations. We conduct a trust game experiment on 511 fourth-grade girl students from the public schools in Mashhad. The results showed that children primed with money in the experimental group, on average, trust more than the control group.

Management and optimization of energy consumption has been importantly considered by policy-makers in the field of energy and environment from the perspective of energy security and environmental considerations. In this study, nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII) was applied to determine the optimal share of fossil energy sources for energy intensive industries of Iran including The Manufacture of food products and beverages, The Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel, The Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, The Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products and The Manufacture of basic metals. According to which the share of kerosene, 0.098%, 0.17%, 0.016%, 0.05%, 0.014%, the share of diesel, 12.88%, 0.93%, 0.62%, 1.97%, 0. 96%, the share of natural gas, 68.81%, 85.25%, 98.29%, 80.32%, 98%, the share of liquefied gas, 0.18%, 2.17%, 0.08%, 2.66%, 0.33%, the share of gasoline, 1.32%, 0.29%, 0.37%, 0.15%, 0.052% and the share of heavy fuel oil 16.7%, 11.18%, 0.62%, 14.83% , 0.65%, was obtained respectively. Then, the study utilized data envelopment analysis (Slack-Based measures) to measure the environmental and economic efficiency in some selected sub-sectors of industry by means of optimal amounts and then compared the results with the real amounts of energy consumption during 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2016. The results of optimization model compared with the real share of energy consumption that indicates the improvement of economic and environmental efficiency in the years under review.

This study, by using data envelopment window analysis method examines the efficiency of 9 Iran’s oil refinery over the period of 2008-2013. Results of the study has shown that, during the period of study, only Kermanshah refinery was efficient in four windows and the rest of the refineries have experienced a stable trend of inefficiency. The inefficiency of oil refining companies has been mostly due to inefficiency in resource management. Inefficient companies in the field of scale efficiency have had a decreasing return to scale, that can be achieved by reducing the size of the company to the optimal scale. The highest amount of resources wasted in the refineries was related to the refinery's fuel and feed consumption. Isfahan refinery had the highest loss of capacity, fuel and feed consumption, and Abadan refinery had the most labor force wastage.

The banking sector has a financial intermediary role and can directly and indirectly support the growth of the real sector of the economy. In countries such as Iran whose economy is bank-based, economic growth is largely dependent on bank loans and according to macroeconomic changes, banking flexibility has a great importance in economic development. On the other hand, according to the policies of the agricultural sector in the development perspective document, which insist on food security of the country by relying on production from domestic sources and emphasize on the self-sufficiency of production of basic products, the development of the agricultural sector has always been a matter of concern for the policymakers. One of the most important limitations in the agricultural sector is the limitation of financial resources for using modern technologies and the creation of higher added value products. Among the factors influencing the formation of an efficient financing system is the instability in other financial markets, especially the exchange rate, which affects the country's GDP and creates cyclical effects, finally affecting the performance of the banking sector. In fact, the impact of GDP on banking ability to provide facilities during periods of recession and booms is explained through business cycles. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of fluctuations in some asset markets such as exchange rate and stock index along with the variables of business cycles and agricultural products import on the efficiency of agricultural facilities.

In the present study, several econometric models have been used to investigate the effect of exchange rate and stock index fluctuations and business cycles on the efficiency of agricultural facilities. Initially, wavelet transform model was used to extract exchange rate and stock index fluctuations. The Daubechies discrete wavelet was used for this purpose. The advantage of this approach over the family of Arch models is the ability to distinguish fluctuations across time periods. In addition, Hodrick Prescott filter was used to extract business cycles, and Bootstrap data envelopment analysis approach was applied to evaluate the efficiency of agricultural facilities. The advantage of this approach over the data envelopment analysis approach is its bias correction and greater stability. The Markov switching model was also used to estimate the final research pattern. The used period in the study is 1384:1-1396:4.

According to Hamilton's study, the intercept that has the lowest coefficient indicates a low regime (low efficiency of facilities granted to the agricultural sector) and the intercept with a highest coefficient indicates the high regime (high efficiency of facilities granted to agriculture). Therefore, the zero regime in the present study indicates the high efficiency regime while regime indicates the low efficiency regime of the granted facilities. Based on the results of model estimation, the occurrence of business cycles in all regimes would lead to decline in the efficiency of the banking network facilities provided to the agricultural sector. The impact of exchange rate fluctuations depends on the time period. Short-term fluctuations have no significant effect on facility efficiency but medium- and long-term fluctuations have a negative significant impact. If the currency market volatility persists, it would reduce the efficiency, regardless of the regime and the level of efficiency of the facility. Of course long-term exchange rate fluctuations will have a stronger negative impact when the regime of agricultural facilities efficiency is high. Stock index fluctuations in the medium and long term also have a positive and significant impact when the efficiency of agricultural facilities is high. In case of high efficiency level of agricultural facilities, increasing imports of agricultural products will lead to decrease in efficiency.

In many studies on the effect of exchange rate, stock fluctuations, and business cycles on the performance of the banking network, several important factors have been ignored such as regime changes, and time-scale in the efficiency of facilities granted to the agricultural sector. Due to different impacts of exchange rate and stock index fluctuations across different time periods as well as on the different efficiency regimes of agricultural sector facilities, the policymakers of currency and capital market should manage currency and stocks based on the volatility period and the level of efficiency of facility. In fact, in such situation, the nonperforming loans will be less and the banking network will not have problem to finance the agricultural sector.

Adverse selection appear when insured persons have information about their risk that is not observed by insurers. Under these circumstances, insurers are unable to identify customer risk and they are forced to offer the same contract based on the average of all their customers. It is clear that offering such a similar contract will be relatively more attractive to high-risk customers. In contrast, it is not very pleasant for customers who have less risk. This will gradually drive low-risk customers out of the insurance industry. The end result will be that such a situation will prevent a stable balance in the market and it allows the market to collapse completely. In the present study, the phenomenon of adverse selection, which is one of the side effects of asymmetric information, in the basic health insurance market in Iran, it has been studied and tested. To test the research hypothesis, that is, to confirm the existence of an adverse selection, household budget data between 1993 and 1994 have been used. Attempts have been made to make the model under the least parametric assumptions, to be able to test adverse selection in health insurance. Also, unlike all previous models, the uncertainty of repayment and its amount was considered in this model, which is much more consistent with reality. The results confirm the adverse selection in health insurance, health care and social security in Iran.

The most prominent characteristics of the electricity market in our country are thepay as bid to market winners. However, in most countries, a uniform payment method is used to clearing the market.In this paper, the effect of these two methods on the productivity and efficiency of the power industry in the manufacturing sector is compared. For a closer look, the model is designed for three hours of low load, normal load, peak, and yearly. For this purpose, with the use of the Q-Learning method, which is a subset of multy-agent models, Iran's electricity market model with all its features and limited to Khorasan power plants is simulated in two different ways and efficiency is compared in two scenarios. The results indicate that a uniform payment method leads to the use of higher power plants to supply electricity. Therefore, in this way, the cost of electricity is lower than the pay as bid method.

Natural resources generate the major part of national wealth in resource-rich developing countries. Based on economic theories, if natural resource rents are reinvested continuously in other forms of capital, such countries can benefit from these resources. Thus, examining the mechanism of how to rents affect economic growth through capital accumulation channels is of great importance. Because of the importance of management of resource rents in achieving sustainable growth and development in resource-rich countries, this paper investigates the impacts of resource rents on accumulation of four kinds of capital (foreign, physical, human and social capital) in Iran during 1970-2014. To this end, a simultaneous equations system consisting of various capital forms is designed, and estimated by using Seemingly Unrelated Regression estimator. According to the findings, resource rents have positive effects on accumulation of foreign, human and social capital in Iran. But it is of negative effect on accumulation of physical capital. The results show that physical capital is affected by natural resource rents more than other kinds of capital. This is because of unproductive government investments in physical capital, hence not only resource rents increase physical capital but also they affect physical capital negatively.

IntroductionFinancial system is fundamental for economic growth in most of countries. Based on vast studies done on the determinants of economic growth, financial development leads to economic growth in many countries in long time (Rousseau & Wachtel, 2002). It is worth noting that the importance of financial system in economic growth has been notified for many years (e.g., Bagehot, 1873; Hicks, 1969; McKinnon & Shaw, 1973; King & Levin, 1993; Levin, 1997, 2002; Beck, Demirguc-Kunt & Levine 2000; Aizenman, 2015).
Although there is a vast literature about the importance of financial development, most of them have investigated the direct impact of financial development on economic growth. In this case it is important to know that there are four main channels that contribute to the relationship between financial development and overall economic output that are foreign capital, physical capital, human capital, and social capital. Based on World Bank’s analysis (2012), these five kinds of capital form national wealth in all economies. Meanwhile natural capital has the main role in resource-rich countries.
There is an expanding literature that shows the effects on natural resource rents on economic growth in resource-rich countries. Gylfason (2001) introduced four main channels that consist of four kinds of capital mentioned above to show how resource rents affect economic growth.
One of the important issues that have been neglected in this concept is how resource-rich countries can reverse the negative effects or improve the positive effects of resource rents on capital accumulation. There are few studies that argue financial development is an effective solution for that aim.
2) Theoretical Framework
Four kinds of capital that contribute to the relationship between resource rents and economic growth are foreign capital, physical capital, human capital and social capital. In fact natural capital will affect them in all resource-rich countries. Hence, the first step is to investigate the simultaneous effects of natural capital on other kinds of capital.
The conceptual model of this paper is that financial development is an infrastructure that has potential in improving the positive (or reducing negative) impact of natural resources on all kinds of capital accumulation. Therefore, the second step of this study is investigating the role of financial development on the effects of natural resources on accumulation of this kind of capital.
In this paper, we will show that financial development could absorb resource rents in order to allocate resources and invest them in most optimal projects. For more details it would be necessary to say that the debate about the influence of financial development on economic growth has been ongoing for more than a century. Since Schumpeter (1912) believed that financial development affects economic activity and hence economic growth. In fact, financial development has emerged as one of the policy levers central banks and governments use to target economic growth.
In fact, financial development is based on the financial development index which provides a measure for the breadth, depth and efficiency of financial systems. Generally, financial development is the factors, policies and institutions that lead to effective financial intermediation and markets, as well as deep and broad access to capital and financial services. To achieve a coherent view about financial development it would be necessary to know the main financial system functions. These are:Facilitating the trading, hedging, diversifying and pooling of the risks;
Allocating financial resources;
Monitoring managers and exerting corporate control;
Mobilizing savings;
Facilitating the exchange of goods and services (Levine, 1997).
Governments in developing resource-rich countries in order to achieve the optimal use of resource rents could stimulate financial development through some macroeconomic policies (Huang, 2010). One of the probable results of financial development is to smooth consumption of below-ground wealth across generations. Other consequence of financial development will be seen in isolating government budgets from volatile resource prices, allowing the budgetary process to be conducted with more certainty.
MethodologyThis paper provides a model for investigating the simultaneous effects of natural resource rents on four kinds of capital accumulation using SUR model. In second step, for investigating the role of financial development index on the effects of natural resource rents on all kinds of capital, we have utilized Rolling Regression technique. This method is suitable for testing the effects of one variable on two other variables in a model. Also, it is worth noting that the multi-dimension financial development index that consists of 8 main financial indices in banking sector is made by PCA method.
Results and DiscussionBased on the results of SUR estimator, resource rent has positive effect on foreign and social capital but it has negative effect on physical capital. There are various effects from resource rents on human capital accumulation; sometimes, it has positive and sometimes it has negative effect. It shows that natural resource rents have different effect on each kinds of capital accumulation in Iran during 15 rolling regression (fixed) windows that have 30 observations for each variable in one window. As is evident in this paper, the total natural resource rents itself is not a curse for the economy, but it could be a blessing. One of the important reasons for the negative effect of resources on physical capital is more governmental investments in this sector and there are some rent-seeking activities that prevent resources from mobilizing to productive projects.
The results of rolling regression show that the development of financial banking system can improve the effects of resource rents on physical and social capital in Iran. But we do not get the same results for foreign capital and human capital. In foreign capital sector, ignoring the development of external dimension of financial banking system that may be seen as financial liberalization is one of the main reasons for this event.
The reason for undesirable effect of financial development in human capital sector relates to low level of financial innovation in banking sector and high level of risks that banks are faced with. Consequently, many innovative projects from people who have high level of human capital accumulation will not be considered in Iran.
Conclusion and SuggestionsNatural resource management is one of the important issues in resource-rich countries. Based on the results, financial development can mitigate the negative effect or improve the positive effects of these rents on capital accumulation. The results show that financial development would be beneficial for this aim in physical and social capital sector in Iran. But it cannot improve the effects of resource rents on foreign and human capital accumulation.
Based on the results, we could suggest that considering development of financial system is a necessity in resource-rich countries such as Iran. Meanwhile the important issue is focusing on all financial development channels that lead to balanced development in financial system. Also, it is worth noting that policy makers should avoid financial repression because this would prevent it from imposing positive effects on the economy. At the end, we could say that paying attention to all kinds of capital would lead to sustainable economic growth when it is accompanied by stable financial development.

The most important property of the Iranian Electricity Market is the pay as bid method for the winning power plants. However, in many developed countrie's electricity markets, uniform payment method is used. In this paper, we compare the uniform payment method and pay as bid regarding price and cost price of electricity in the Iranian electricity market using a Q-learning model in three periods of low, normal and peak loads. Due to insufficient and in many cases, inaccessible data, this study is mainly concentrated on power plants located in Khorasan Province. According to the results, the price of electricity in the pay as bid method is lower than the uniform payment method. However, the cost of electricity in a uniform layment is less than the pay as bid method. In other words, in a uniform payment, power plants with higher efficiency win the bids resulting into lower fuel consumption and less greenhouse gase emissions

Equitable distribution of income and economic growth are challenges for policy-makers. Therefore, it is important to investigate the influencing factors of it. Given that financial development is an important factor affecting on income inequality, in this study, the effect of financial development on the Gini coefficient as income inequality index is examined with using panel data methods during the period of 1994-2011 in selected Islamic countries.
Model estimation results show that the financial development in both the banking sector and stock has an Opposite effect on income inequality. Inverted U-shaped relationship by Greenwood and Jovanovich that shows non-linear relationship between financial sector development and income inequality is not confirmed in both the banking and the stock market. But hypothesis by the linear relationship between financial development and income inequality was confirmed. Inflation has a direct effect on income inequality, which means that inflation has an increase in income inequality in the studied countries.

Environmental fans believe that sustainable development depends on future needs to balance the objectives of social, economic and environmental development. Although these goals are contradictory in the short term, but will strengthen each other in the long term. Sustainable economic growth depends on a specific amount of resources, such as pollution absorption and resource regeneration. The responsible use of environmental resources makes the development of long-term stability is achieved. Sustainability is an extensive and complex, and not a deliberate action on the basis of an agent. The most important factors include: economic, environmental, social, physical and institutional. Sustainable development indicators means by which the measure the degree of development, as well as measure the success or failure of development programs. So is inevitable enjoying economic indicators, environmental, social, physical and institutional planning process and its implementation. National undesirable planning has revealed the extreme differences in geographical areas of infrastructure development in the country. The process of development is not the same in a province, such as the development of the province. Therefore it is necessary levels of stability in the period analyzed. Can provide solutions and policies upgrade sustainability by assessing the current situation. Therefore it is necessary levels of stability in the period analyzed. Can provide solutions and policies upgrade sustainability by assessing the current situation. The aim of this study is to prioritize the upgrade sustainable townships of Khorasan Razavi.
Theoretical frame work: World Commission on Environment and Development has identified the precise objectives and the broad for sustainable development. These include: continuous increase growth, change the quality of growth, essential needs for jobs, food, energy, water, and health, in a much stable population control, conservation of resources, technological change, considering both the environment and economics in decision-making; the transformation of international relations, partnership development. These postulates of sustainable development as well as the theoretical framework of the paper forms. The purpose of this paper is to determine indicators of sustainable development based on the sustainable development literature to prioritize the development of the townships of Khorasan Razavi province. The research hypothesis is: between the townships of Khorasan Razavi province, there are differences and inequalities in terms of sustainable development.
To test the hypothesis, a number of variables were selected as indicators of economic, environmental, social, physical and institutional. Then, using software SPSS, and R factor analysis, was built index. Was obtained by Morris Inequality index, and standardized scores, status and rank townships. This type of applied research, and the research method is descriptive analysis. Location research, Khorasan Razavi province. Data for 27 townships in the province have been extracted from the 2011 population census statistics.
Varimax rotation has been reduced by 60 index to 5 factors. A total of five factors covered 76.6% of the variance. Contribution (social - bio) 34.2 percent, share of (bio - socio-economic) 20.3 percent, share of (economic - institutional) 9.9 percent, contribution (social - bio) 7.8%, and contribution (bio-physical) 4.3 percent. Rank development of each township is determined based on the lowest rating standard. Townships with less points are the priority planning. Township development priority factor scores were calculated by using a regression model using the software SPSS. The five-factor model dependent and independent variables is Morris Inequality index. Beta coefficient regression model determines the priority factors. Social - biological factor first priority and environmental - social - economic factor priority is fifth.
Morris Inequality index showed except Mashhad and Gonabad, all of the townships had low development. But according to a standardized score, the townships of Khushab, Zaveh, and takhtjolgeh is semi -unstable. And the townships of Mashhad, Gonabab and Bajestan a metastable (developed); and other townships of development are low. By comparing the standardized score townships, hypothesis is confirmed and the most important factor for sustainable development, social - bio factor in the province.
are differences and inequalities among selection criteria of sustainable development at 27 city in Khorasan Razavi province. In all methods examined in this study, the cities of Khushab, Zaveh and takhtjolgeh were semi-stable, Bajestan, Gonabad and Mashhad were in medium level of development and the other cities had the low degree of development. The priority of predictor variables of sustainable development are as follows: social factors - biological, economic - social, economic, institutional, bio-physical, biological and socio - economic.

The savings becomes to invest in the capital market and then import into the production cycle and helps to the development and growth of countries. However, inefficient capital markets, cause savings to flow into real assets. Gold is a real asset, liquidity with high strength, and a suitable replacement for money. This wealth is a booming market in Iran. Fluctuations in the price of gold in addition to the influence of other markets can also affect other markets. Therefore, it is important for the state and the people to understand the trend in the price of gold and gold coins. The gold price forecast will help policymakers to make the right decisions. On the other hand, it is difficult and complicated to accurately predict the real variables. We need to recognize the structural nature is predictable pattern. In this article, chaos theory was used to identify the structural nature of the time series of Bahar Azadi gold coin.
Theoretical Framework: Chaos theory analysis of the systems that have non-linear relationships and irregular time series. Economic time series variables follow a stochastic process and thus are not predictable. However, the series are not random, and are expected in the short term. There are tests for chaos in time series, such as correlation dimension, BDS, and Lyapunov exponent maximum test. Results of the study by Kim et al. (2003) showed that the BDS test is more efficient than other tests.
For the purpose of this study, the non-linearity of the BDS test, and the Lyapunov exponent maximum test of the chaotic time series were used. BDS test was conducted in three stages: the original data, the residual of ARIMA, and the residual of GARCH. To determine the structure of time series of Bahar Azadi gold coin, 1670 observation was divided into 8 groups of the two hundred. Null hypothesis test is the IID and independent data. The Lyapunov exponent maximum test check on all data. Positive values of the statistics indicated the existence of chaos in the system. R and MATLAB software were used for data analysis.
First, the stationary data were checked. Dickey-Fuller test the null hypothesis is accepted, which implies the existence of a unit root. The first stage of BDS test was performed on the original data in the dimensions inscribed. The results showed that the null hypothesis was rejected, except the first group. As a result, the original data were not IID, and linear or non-linear dependence exists between them. Before the second phase of the test, the appropriate ARIMA model was selected. The unit root test was performed on the residual of ARIMA, and the null hypothesis was rejected. As a result, BDS test was conducted on the residual ARIMA. In the third stage, first the variance heterogeneity was checked, white test the null hypothesis is rejected, thus confirming the heterogeneity of variance. Then, the existence of ARCH effect was checked. ARCH effect in the first five groups, GARCH effect in the next three tests by Ljung-Box and LM-ARCH was confirmed. According to the BDS test conducted on the residual of GARCH, the null hypothesis was rejected, which residual IID, and linear and nonlinear dependence does not exist, thus confirming the process of chaotic time series data structure of Bahar Azadi gold coin. Wolfe algorithm was used in this study to calculate the Lyapunov exponent maximum test. The results showed that the Lyapunov exponent was small and positive for all aspects and intervals.
As a result, time series of Bahar Azadi gold coin is possessed of a chaotic process. So we can predict future prices with the non-linear model in this series.

This study investigates the time-varying correlations among oil and coin prices، and exchange rate in Iran. Since investment is a key factor in economic growth and development، so the necessary funds should be provided and directed towards manufacturing and industrial sectors. In addition، understanding the relationships among financial variables allows to the investor to reduce overall portfolio risk without harming to the return on investment. In this paper we use monthly data of the oil and coin prices، and exchange rate in Iran over the period 1991:3 to 2011:2 and examine time-varying correlations using Dynamic Conditional Correlation - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) approach by G@RCH6 software. The analyses made in milieu of the world financial crisis (2008) show that the conditional correlations among assets are time-varying and world financial crisis causes significant changes in dynamic relationships among assets under study in Iran.

On the factors affecting economic growth and per-capita income, the less attention has been paid to “population age structure”. We aim to investigate the effect of changes in population age structure on per capita income in Iran. To do this, we identify the most important effective channels according to review of literature. Then we design an empirical model that indicates the relationship between population age structure and per-capita income based on the neoclassical growth literature. In the next step we estimate and test the model in three specifications by Auto-Regressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) method during 1968-2010. The results indicate that the per capita income elasticity of labor supply (as the direct effectiveness channel of changes in population age structure on per capita income) is positive. In addition, indirect channels (which include savings, human capital and government spending) indicate that the per capita income elasticity with respect to an increase in share of population between the ages 15 to 64 is positive, and per capita income elasticity with respect to an increase in share of population below age 15 and above age 65 is negative.

In present study، role of agricultural on ECO countries regional convergence was assessed in dynamic panel data model. At first، ECO countries convergence and agricultural sector effect in convergence acceleration was surveyed by generalized method of moments (GMM) over the period 1996-2005. Results showed that، this is convergence between ECO countries. In spite of increasing regional growth، the agricultural sector had negative effect in convergence acceleration; and it caused decreasing regional convergence speed. Therefore، it was suggested to ECO countries with agricultural sector development and restrictions contained in this section could provide clear perspective for the future planning in order to promote regional convergence.

In the present study, effects of creation of regional integration agreements between ECO countries were assessed in the Smart partial equilibrium model. Therefore, the amount of trade creation and trade diversion was surveyed under the tariff reduction scenarios for trade of Iran and other members. The results showed that implementation of regional agreements between Iran and ECO countries; increases export of ECO countries to Iran than exports of Iran to ECO countries is higher. Therefore, reducing tariff rates in the form regional integration agreements, Iran will face with trade deficit equivalent to 24.472 million under the first scenario and 48.945 million dollars in the second scenario. Also, the results showed that a major part of the increase of imports due to trade creation and consequently increase imports from countries of ECO will be. So in order to obtain benefit of tariff rates reduction in regional integration agreements is recommended increasing regional trade and improvement of its structure in planning future for development of regional cooperation.