masoud soufi majidpour

Efforts have been made to reduce inequality in Iran; But the problem persists and affects the economic growth. The purpose of the article is to evaluate the effect of financial inclusion on income inequality in the provinces of Iran, with an emphasis on information and communication technology. Therefore, the data of 31 provinces of Iran in the period of 1390-1400 were used. First, the financial inclusion index was calculated with the principal component analysis approach in two stages for the provinces. The findings showed that this index is not more than 0.5 in any province. Only in Tehran, it is between 0.5 and 0.3, and 30 other provinces are at a low level. Then, the effect of financial inclusion on the Gini coefficient in Iran's provinces was estimated using fixed effects and FMOLS methods, the variables of information and communication technology indicators and their cross effects were estimated. The results showed that financial inclusion has a negative and significant effect on the Gini coefficient in the provinces of Iran. Also, the cross effects of learning and information and communication technology have a negative effect on the Gini coefficient.

In this article, the asymmetric effects of exchange rate on the stock market were evaluated using daily data from 20/03/2016 to 21/06/2023 using cointegration, Dynamic Conditional Correlation and APARCH methods. The evidence shows that both shocks (positive/negative) and large shocks (positive/negative) are repeatedly found in the Dollar exchange rate. Estimates show that the exchange rate is effective on the stock market. The findings showed that the stock market reaction to the positive and negative shocks of exchange rate is asymmetric. The behavior of the stock market is stable towards negative shocks, but the effects of positive shocks are gradually neutralized. A large negative shocks in the exchange rate puts the stock market at a sustained low level. Also, the volatility of the stock market shows a very stable pattern. Dynamic Conditional Correlation findings show that negative shocks have a greater impact on conditional volatility compared to positive shocks.

Financial inclusion is a key driver of economic growth. This study evaluates its effect on economic growth in 59 high-income countries from 2004 to 2021, using panel data and quantile methods. Financial inclusion is measured through banking penetration, availability of banking services, and usage of financial services. The results reveal significant differences among countries, generally enjoying favorable macroeconomic conditions, and indicate slight convergence among them. Positive impacts on economic growth were observed from bank and facility penetration, while ATM penetration and financial deepening showed negative effects. Influential factors include capital, inflation rate, unemployment rate, economic openness, life expectancy, and population growth. The impact of financial inclusion is more pronounced in lower-income countries. Expanding financial inclusion through the Internet and mobile banking, especially in less privileged areas, and enhancing microfinance and user-friendly applications, are pivotal for economic growth.

Iran's economy will become bigger in the coming years and the GDP will increase every year. Therefore, the economy will need more labor force, which is provided through population growth. Now this question is raised, will population growth be enough for Iran's future economic growth?During the last 50 years, the situation of Iran's labor market has been such that the supply has increased over the demand, so unemployment has been one of the chronic problems of Iran. For example, the active population in 2021 was about 25.8 million people, of which 2.3 million were unemployed and 23.5 million were employed, that is, the unemployment rate was 9.2% (Statistical Center of Iran, Results of the 2021 Labor Force Survey Plan), but the population outlook in Iran shows major changes in the coming years. This research shows that in the future, the labor market of Iran will not experience unemployment, rather the possibility of labor force shortage will not be surprising. In this article, the supply of and demand for labor in Iran are estimated until 2050, then the gap between the two is predicted.

To predict the labor supply, first, the population by age has been estimated using the cohort method until 2050. Then we consider two scenarios for the labor force participation rate. First, it is assumed that the labor force participation rate will be constant until the year 2050. Second, it is assumed that the participation rate will increase along the trend of "average years of education of women". With the availability of the participation rate and the working age population (15-64), the active population has been estimated until 2050.The demand for labor is estimated according to the production elasticity of employment. With the assumption of this elasticity and the assumption of economic growth at least level for Iran's economy, labor demand is predicted. The average production elasticity of employment in Iran is about 0.7, which means that with economic growth of 1%, the demand for labor increases by 0.7%. Assuming that this elasticity is constant until 2050 and considering the scenario for economic growth (minimum economic growth), the labor demand is estimated for the next 30 years.

 A realistic scenario that predicts the labor force participation rate in line with the trend of "average years of education for women", the active population is predicted to be 30.35 million in 2050. On the other hand, by using the output elasticity of employment and two scenarios for Iran's economic growth, the demand for the labor force has been predicted until 2050. Assuming an average economic growth, 2.6% per year and an output elasticity, 0.7, the demand for labor in 2050 is predicted to be around 40.26 million people. With a realistic scenario, the results show that there is unemployment in Iran until 2030, although the trend is decreasing. In 2030, unemployment will reach zero, which means labor supply and demand will be equal. From 2030 onwards, the excess demand for the labor force begins with an increasing trend, so that in 2050 the excess demand for the labor force reaches about 10 million people.

In this research, labor supply and demand have been predicted using very conservative and reasonable assumptions. The results show that with a minimum economic growth rate (1% per year) and the maximum increase in the labor force participation rate up to 50% in 2050, there will still be a lack of labor demand. There are three ways to reduce excess demand. The first is to increase productivity. Through improving technology and human capital through education, health, skills, etc., labor productivity can be increased. With the improvement of technology and the use of advanced machines, the use of robots, the mechanization of various economic sectors, and the use of artificial intelligence (IA), the majority of excess demand can be provided.  The second is to use of foreign labor. Many countries use the supply excess of foreign labor from countries that face supply excess to offset their excess demand. The third way is to increase the labor force participation rate of women in Iran.It should be noted that the assumption of other conditions is always met in any forecasting. Among these conditions are sanctions, oil exports, technology, environmental changes, and so forth. For example, if the sanctions are lifted, Iran's economic growth can up to 7 percent annually. Higher economic growth leads to higher demand for labor, and excess demand occurs sooner. Therefore, changing any of the unexpected factors in the future can increase or decrease the forecast of supply and demand.

In this paper, the asymmetric effects of stock market shocks on the exchange rate in Iran were evaluated using the daily data from 20/03/2016 to 21/06/2023 using cointegration and APARCH methods. The evidence shows that both shocks (positive/negative) are repeatedly found in the Iranian stock market. Out of 2642 days, 1601 days of the market had negative returns and 1041 days had positive returns. In 511 days the market has fluctuated more than one standard deviation (big shocks). Estimates show that there is a strong long-term relationship between these two markets. The findings showed that the reaction of exchange rate to the positive and negative shocks of the stock market is asymmetric and has a long-term effect on the exchange rate. The behavior of the exchange rate towards negative and positive impulses is cyclical. The big negative shocks in the stock market gradually increase the return of exchange rate and eventually this effect does not disappear and puts the exchange rate at a higher level. But the effect of the big positive shocks in the stock market on the exchange rate is dampening. Negative shocks have a greater impact on conditional volatility compared to positive momentum. Also, the fluctuation of the stock market shows a very stable pattern. 

The escalating costs of the social security system, coupled with the rising burden of expenses on income, represent some of the most significant economic challenges facing our country. Formulating a plan to address this issue necessitates an understanding of the factors that influence the expenses of the social security system. It is crucial to assess the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on social security expenditures.

In this study, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to assess the impact of monetary and fiscal policies on the expenses of the Social Security Organization from 2010 to 2019. The ARDL model is a single equation approach that incorporates past lags of both independent variables and the dependent variable itself into the equation, providing a more accurate estimate. The data for this research were sourced from the statistical records and financial statements of the Social Security Organization. After standardization, these data were then incorporated into the study.

Liquidity and the ratio of government expenditures to gross domestic product (GDP) exert a negative impact on social security expenditures. This could be attributed to the short-term effects of these variables on business prosperity and the temporary reduction of unemployment. The correlation of unemployment, interest rates, and exchange rates with the organization’s expenses was found to be positive. Additionally, the life expectancy index and support ratio positively influenced the organization’s expenses. This was one of the advantages of the Social Security Organization, as it led to an increase in the benefit period for pensioners. In the long term, an increase in liquidity, coupled with the effects of inflation and wage growth, can lead to a rise in social security costs. Similarly, an increase in the support ratio and life expectancy exerts the same effects.

The government’s monetary and fiscal policies significantly influence the financial status of the Social Security Organization. Considering the organization’s impact on the well-being of over 45 million individuals, it is crucial to consider its role as a non-governmental public institution when making macro-policy decisions in various fields. These decisions should consider their effects on all aspects of the macroeconomics and institutions, especially non-governmental public institutions, such as the Social Security Organization.

The purpose of this article is to evaluate the trend and the factors that determining the growth of the total factor productivity (TFP) in the manufacturing industries in the provinces of Iran using a stochastic frontier approach in the period of 2011-2019. First, the stochastic frontier translog production function was estimated by the exponential true fixed effects (ETFE) method. Second, the TFP components were measured includes technical progress, technical efficiency changes and scale efficiency. The results show that the average TFP growth of provinces manufacturing industries was 31.1% annually, which technical progress and technical efficiency changes decline and scale effects improve the TFP. In the study period at first the total factor productivity growth increases in 2012 and 2013 and then decreases in 2014 and 2015. In the years 2016 to 2019, the growth of TFP has increased again. The technical progress has had a negative growth in all years, but its trend has been accompanied by improvement in the study period. Among the provinces, Ardebil, Kurdistan and Hormozgan experienced the highest TFP growth and Tehran, Sistan and Baluchistan and Mazandaran experienced the lowest TFP growth. According to the findings, manufacturing industries need to use advanced technologies along with re-allocation of resources.

The purpose of this paper is decomposition of total factor productivity (TFP) to technological progress, technical efficiency, allocative efficiency, scale effects in Iran’s manufacturing industries. For this, a stochastic Frontier production model was estimated for 135 manufacturing industries over the period 1379-1393. The findings showed that technological progress in 21 industrial groups has been grew on average 12 percent annually. In relation to technical efficiency many of technical industries have been weaken in using exist technologies or have been inefficient technically. The third factor findings showed that Iran’s manufacturing industries have been utilized from scale effects. In relation to allocative efficiency, also, all groups have experienced negative growth except Recycle group. In result, among components of total factor productivity, allocative efficiency has been more unfavorable and it refers to in Iran’s economy the resources allocate in unfavorable. On the base of the results, improvement in financing system, increasing in private sector capacitance, improvement in business space are suggested.