mohammad vesal

Export subsidies are one of the most important issues among the various trade policies in developing countries. For more than a century, various effects of export subsidies have been studied in the literature, and different results have been presented. In this paper, we examine the effect of export subsidies on the weight and export price of several agricultural products. In 2015 and 2016, respectively, potatoes and five groups of dairy products were recipients of cash subsidies. In this study, using quarterly microdata on the weight and value of exports for various goods from 2004 to 2021, the effect of subsidies is assessed. By comparing the export changes of subsidized with non-subsidized goods in a difference-in-differences model, the causal effects of the mentioned subsidies are extracted. The results of the research show that the growth of potato export weight has increased due to the subsidy. Also, the export price growth has decreased, with some of the subsidy benefits extending to foreign countries. In the case of dairy products, powdered milk was significantly affected compared to other dairy products. The decrease in export price growth is also seen only in the case of powdered milk. Overall, there are no significant changes in the weight or price of the dairy products. Furthermore, the timing of exports for potatoes and dairy products changed due to the incentive provided by subsidies, with part of the increase in exports during the studied period being compensated by a reduction in exports before and after the studied period.

Universal access to higher education and radical increase in demand for higher education in 2000s necessitated the expansion of higher education institutions. The rise in the number of such institutions was unprecedented. In fact, all districts of Iran had a higher education institution by 2008. Even very small districts received a private or public higher education institution to reduce transportation costs and expand access to higher education. This enhanced access has a more disproportionate effect on women compared to men. In this paper we combine data on higher education institutions between 1999 and 2016 with educational outcomes of individuals aged between 18 to 35 years old in the population census 2016 to estimate the impact of access to higher education on educational attainment and educational gender gap. Using district and age fixed effects, we do not find a significant effect on overall education of individuals. However, women received a significantly larger benefit from the expansion of higher education institutions.

Malnutrition is a big challenge in population and anti-poverty policy making. It could adversely affect productivity and lower income, which result in a food poverty trap. A diverse set of socio-economic factors affect malnutrition. Income growth could be an important factor in lowering malnutrition. However, a key requirement is that calorie and macronutrients demand also increase with income. In this paper we use parametric and non-parametric methods to estimate the income elasticity of calorie and macronutrients (protein, carbohydrates, and fat) for urban areas of Iran. We combine data from urban household income and expenditure surveys between 2008 and 2016 to calculate income, purchased calorie and macronutrients of households. The non-parametric results show that the income elasticity is significantly different from zero in low-income households but becomes insignificant in higher deciles. The parametric results show that the income elasticity of calorie and macronutrients are between 0.18 and 0.27. Thus, policies that enhance household income are effective in reducing malnutrition.

Ensuring access to essential goods during hard times has always been the policy makers’ main concern. Using Household Expenditure and Income Survey data during 1984-1989, we estimate the welfare effects of rationing three essential goods: rice, cooking oil, and sugar. We find that households consumed higher than the efficient quantities of these rationed goods due to lower prices. Under the alternative policy of a cash transfer equal to the value of rations, we estimate a small increase in the aggregate welfare. The distribution of this overall small welfare gain is skewed toward the poor households. The welfare of the poorest quintile of households increases by more than 5 percent when cash transfers replace rationing.

Estimating electricity demand elasticity in different sectors has been an essential research topic. Considering the fact that pricing electricity in various countries does not follow the same rules, many econometrics methods have been developed to estimate this crucial parameter. Electricity demand elasticity is defined as the percent change in electricity consumption in response to one percentage change in electricity price. Having a correct estimate of this parameter would help policymakers to price electricity properly in order to reach desirable goals in electricity consumption optimization and many other aspects of electricity consumption. In Iran, Tavanir which is a subsidiary of the Ministry of Energy, announces the price schedule of electricity in different months and regions. Examining the price schedules in different counties would make it clear that there are neighboring counties in which the imposed tariffs are not the same. In this research, using the fact that there are different tariffs imposed in some neighboring countries, the regression discontinuity design is exploited to identify the household electricity demand price elasticity causally. The findings of this research suggest that on average, increasing the electricity price by one percentage would lead to the decrease of electricity consumption by around 0.4 to 0.7 percent.

New technology-based firms (NTBFs) are the driving force of innovation and technological progress and play a key role in job creation and economic growth.  Given the positive economic and social externalities and existing challenges in the growth path of these firms, governments engage in various support policies. Therefore, evaluating the success of these policies is very essential. In Iran, the Vice President for Science and Technology has implemented policies to support NTBFs since 2013. This study evaluates the effect of innovation policies on improving the probability that NTBFs transit to the growth stage, using official data. The results from a logit model confirm a positive impact from tax credits, low-interest loans, and counseling services on the probability of transition. Also, firms with high-technology products have a higher probability of achieving the growth stage compared to firms with medium-technology products. Finally, NTBFs working in the field of "information and communication technology" have the highest probability of success, while those in the "biotechnology" sector have the lowest probability. Differences in the growth probability in different sectors emphasize the importance of sectoral sectoral prioritization and vertical policies opposed to general and horizontal policies. Effective policies should be analyzed together with highly responsive sector in drafting optimal support policies.

Can a historical shock such as Iranchr('39')s occupation in world war two and the resulting famine affect peoplechr('39')s health up to the age of 70? In this study, we do a natural experiment during the allied occupation interval in Iran. First, we documented the most challenging period of this shock based on historical evidence. Then we compare people who were prenatally exposed to this period with those who were born in similar periods immediately before and immediately after. To find the causal effect, we use various fixed effects and controls in the comparisons. The study results show that those whose in-utero period overlapped with this shockchr('39')s most severe period are, on average, about 1.1 cm shorter than the two groups before and after them. These results are significant and robust and adding control variables, fixed effects, and small changes at the beginning and end of the period do not significantly change the results. Our results also indicate that the fetal period had a more significant impact on height than the first two years of life. This research contains a policy message for pregnant mothers, and health and welfare policymakers.

This paper studies the short-term impacts of air pollutants on mortality rates in a range of diseases including cardiovascular, respiratory and digestive diseases, tumors and cancers. It uses daily data of suspended particulate matters (SPM), CO, NOx, and O3 in six metropolitan areas of Tehran, Ahvaz, Mashhad, Tabriz, Shiraz, and Esfahan during 2011-2015. In order to determine the impact of air pollution on mortality rate, both daily air pollution and its average over the past two weeks is used. In this research, no association was found between daily pollution and mortality rate. However, the results show that increasing CO in the past two weeks causes a significant increase in mortality rates

Asymmetric information in insurance markets leads to adverse selection and moral hazard. The amount of asymmetric information could change over time due to learning. Unlike other insurance contracts, supplementary health insurance contracts in Iran are in group form. Therefore, between group asymmetric information might play an important role. In this article, positive correlation test is used to test presence of between group asymmetric information. Since acute hospital disease category does not have moral hazard, adverse selection is separately identified. Finally, using the temporal variation in insurance contracts, moral hazard is separated from learning. The data is a panel of insurance contracts from Asia Insurance Company, for two types of paraclinical and hospital health services, during the period of 2011-2016. Results show no asymmetric information for acute hospital disease and since there is not any moral hazard, we can conclude no between group adverse selection. For paraclinical services, we find significant evidence for asymmetric information, mainly due to moral hazard. We also found evidence of learning for insured groups.

Shortage of electric power is a serious issue for production, especially for those that rely more on electricity. In this paper, we investigate the effect of non-distributed electricity (blackout) on Iranian industry. The sources are derived from two undistributed energy data collected from 39 distribution companies and database of industrial plants. The final panel data is from industrial plants during 1385 to 1392. Results indicate that a one percentage point increase in power outage for firms with average electricity share, decreases production and sales by 0.11 and 0.10 percent respectively, which is significant and quite robust. A smaller negative effect is also observed in production factors such as capital, materials, and productivity, but is not significant. The results also show that electricity and fossil fuels are substitutes. For the firms with average electricity share, the use of fossil fuels increases by 0.045 percent in response to a one percentage point increase in power outage.

The economic effects of large dams that were constructed during recent two decades in Iran are explored in this paper and their effects on agriculture and welfare of their own district and downstream districts are analyzed. Ordinary least squares (OLS) method is used to investigate these effects and for more accurate results, we control for geographical variables and rainfall. The results of this study show that dam construction leads to higher agricultural yield, production value and irrigated area in dam’s own district; but it doesn’t affect yield, production and irrigated area in downstream districts. Also dam construction results in planting more water-intensive crops in their own district and less water-intensive crops in downstream districts. In addition, per capita expenditures in rural regions of downstream districts decrease in response to dam construction in upstream districts, but urban regions of the downstream district and also urban and rural regions of their own district are not influenced by dam construction.

According to the article (8) of the group supplementary health insurance regulation No. 74, which insurance companies are required to comply with it from the beginning of 2011, insurance companies are allowed to take medical check-up and examination from the small groups with less than 50 members, and with respect to the result of inspections, reject some of the firm’s employees, or not to provide coverage for maternity cost and illnesses that have a previous history. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of this regulation on adverse selection in small firms by using group health insurance administrative data during the period of 2011-2016. In order to investigate about the hypothesis of the research, which states that the implementation of the article (8) of this regulation reduces the amount of adverse selection in small firms, we use regression discontinuity design (RDD) method. Results of this study indicate that the implementation of this law has no effect on the reduction of adverse selection in small firms. Furthermore, our findings show that this law motivates insured groups to increase the number of applicants for insurance up to the level of the threshold (50 employees).

Price limits are boundaries applied by market regulators to restrict daily upward and downward fluctuation of security prices within a pre-specified price range. In this study, we have used the data of trades of all companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange during 2006-2015 to study the characteristics of stocks that hit price limits frequently using a panel regression model with fixed effects and generalized method of moments (GMM). In fact, this study aims at investigating the price limits in Tehran Stock Exchange by a novel and distinct approach. In general, risky stocks exhibit more price volatility and thus are more likely to experience price-limit hits. In summary, the results reveal that, in Tehran Stock Exchange, the stocks of companies with higher residual risk, higher trading volume and book to market value, as well as smaller market capitalization with respect to other stocks hit price limits more frequently.

The presence of asymmetric information is an important source of efficiency loss for insurance companies and could reduce profitability. In this paper, we test the conditional independence of coverage choice and risk, where “conditional” means conditional on all variables observed by the insurer. We use two parametric a pair of probits and a bivariate probit model. The data includes all third-party and hull policies as well as claims data for private automobiles during 2013-2016. The data are derived from the administrative database of a small insurance company in Iran. Once we control for individuals’ risk aversion by limiting our test to subsamples of individuals who only bought minimum third-party insurance, we find evidence for the presence of asymmetric information. Based on our results, those who bought hull and third party insurance have higher risk of accident in comparison to those who only bought third party insurance. The existing premiums does not fully compensate for this extra risk.

The relationship between number of children in the family and children's human capital has important implications for optimal population policy. We examine the relationship between number of children in the family and children educational outcomes. Using the two percent sample of individual records from Iran Population Census 2011, we constructed a sample of school age children. The empirical model allows for non-linear effects of children quantity on their educational attainment while controlling for other observable household characteristics. Birth order was a key confounding factor which was controlled for. Educational attainment was measured by school progression constructed from comparing actual school grade and expected school grade based on age. Estimation results, using unrestricted ordinary least squares with controlling for confounders including birth order, shows an inverse-U relationship between number of children in the family and educational outcomes; children’s educational performance improves significantly as the number of children increases from one to two. But for families with three or more children, increasing the number of children significantly deteriorates educational outcomes. This corroborates previous findings in the recent literature.

Tax incidence is a key question in empirical public finance and tax policy design. Using monthly price data from April 2005 to March 2014 in Iran, we classify 43 commodities to exempt and taxable groups. By comparing monthly price changes for the two categories over the periods with tax rate changes, we employ a difference-in-differences strategy to estimate VAT incidence. Consumer share of VAT is estimated to be 63 percent. However, this point estimate should be interpreted with caution because the 95 percent confidence interval is large and contains both full and less than complete pass through. No pass through is rejected at 5 percent significance level. Lack of precision in estimates could be a result of small tax increases and high inflation rates during this period.