mohammadreza zare mehrjerdi

The emission of greenhouse gases is the main cause of global warming and environmental problems. The agricultural sector is one of the major sources of emissions so one-third of the greenhouse gas emissions in the world are related to agricultural systems. Today, forecasting is considered an important planning tool for policymakers. Forecasting the amount of greenhouse gas emissions can show a picture of the future for policymakers and help them in making strategic decisions. There are various methods for predicting variables. This study aims to compare the methods of forecasting and the emission trend of the most important greenhouse gases (methane, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen oxide) from Iran's agricultural sector. The necessary statistics and information were collected annually between 1990 and 2019 from the websites of the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, the World Bank, and the energy balance sheet of the Ministry of Energy, and to predict the variables from univariate methods of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), single exponential smoothing with trend, double exponential smoothing with trend, Holt-Winters multiplicative and Holt-Winters additive and multivariate model of vector autoregressive were used. Based on the research findings, methods of Holt-Winters additive, artificial neural network, and single exponential smoothing with trend provided the best forecast for methane gas, carbon dioxide, and nitrogen oxide, respectively. The results showed that the emission trend of methane and nitrogen oxide gases will be downward and the amount of carbon dioxide emission will be upward. The results can help predict the greenhouse gases released from the agricultural sector and apply appropriate policies accordingly.

Since water is one of the most important factors affecting the production and performance of agricultural products, the efficient management of this scarce resource is considered one of the important fields of agricultural development. The purpose of this research is to analyze and compare the cultivation pattern and the gross profit of farmers in two cases due to the implementation of price and non-price water policies and the implementation of pressure irrigation system in the fields of Erzuye city, one of Kerman province. Irrigation water price policy (increase in water extraction cost) was considered under scenarios of 25, 50, 75 and 100 percent. To achieve these goals, the positive mathematical programming model was used. In order to achieve practical results, production function with constant elasticity of substitution and non-linear cost function were added to this model. The required data were collected using simple random sampling method and completing 100 questionnaires in the crop year of 1401-1400. The obtained results showed that with the adoption of the water price policy, the cultivated area of the crops with the least water consumption increased and other selected products faced a decrease in the cultivated area. Under the last scenario, the gross profit of the model decreased by 26% and at the same time the water consumption decreased by 10.5%. Comparing showed that the implementation of this irrigation system compared to the observed level, increases the net profit of the model by 30.75% and reduces the water consumption of selected crops by 210%

Lack of attention to environmental, economic, structural and service sustainability destroys agricultural production. Therefore, for stability in the agricultural sector, it is necessary to pay attention to sustainable production criteria.In this paper, the composite indices of environmental, economic, and service-structural productivity sustainability of barley and maize in the provinces of Iran during 2001-2019 were calculated using Integration AHP and TOPSIS approaches, and then the indices of each province were classified separately with ISDM method. In the AHP prioritization results have more preference environmental, economic, and service-structural criteria, respectively. In most provinces, during the time period Average sustainability barley and maize are more sustainable in economic, environmental and service-structural criteria respectively. The results periodic averages and ISDM classification of barley and grain corn criteria in during the time period, indicated that the downward trend in barley and maize sustainability criteria and rising trend for economic criteria in the some provinces due to the improvement of labor productivity. Also in most provinces the sustainability of environmental, economic and service-structural criteria was roughly divided into three periods: 2001-2008, 2009-2014, and 2015-2019. In most of the provinces, the results ISDM classification three sustainability criteria were mostly in the moderate class and in the moderate unsustainable subclass is more than the moderate sustainable subclass. The most effective factor in environmental sustainability is water resources, in economic sustainability is income and profit and in service-structural sustainability is packaging and transportation. It is suggested that environmental sustainability with management in the consumption of water resources and inputs and increasing water productivity; Economic stability by organizing product prices and production costs; And service-structural sustainability should be improved by organizing packaging and transportation, and agricultural subsidies should be applied considering sustainability.

Today, environmental degradation is one of the most important issues that different countries are facing. Identifying factors affecting the environmental quality can be guidance for policy makers and planners to protect it. Therefore, in this study, the effect of various variables on the environmental quality has been investigated, emphasizing the natural resource rent in selected MENA countries (Middle East and North Africa) during 1994-2018. For this purpose, panel data approach was used. The results showed that the natural resource rent, human capital, energy consumption, democracy index, urbanization and economic growth have a positive and significant effect on the ecological footprint as a measure of environmental degradation, and income inequality has a negative and significant effect on the ecological footprint. Therefore, planners and policymakers should establish a balance between the supply and demand of natural resources and allocate a part of their income to investment in suitable and environmentally friendly technologies. It is important to hold training courses in the field of environmental protection and reducing the consumption of scarce resources, and human capital should be trained for green exploration, green production and green consumption. So, policies should be aimed at saving energy, increasing its efficiency, and developing the use of renewable energy sources.

The purpose of this study is to identify and prioritize the marketing mix of fresh vegetables (tomatoes, potatoes, onions, cucumbers) in the south of Kerman province. The method used in this study is a mixed approach. The statistical population in the qualitative section includes 28 experts who were selected using a targeted method. Also, the statistical population in the quantitative section includes 160 experts and farmers of Kerman province, who were selected through Morgan's table and simple random sampling method. The analysis has been done in the qualitative part by coding the components. In the quantitative part, the confirmatory factor analysis of the model has been done using the form of structural equations and using Smart-PLS3 software. Finally, using DEMATEL approach, it has been prioritized and determined the cause and effect relationships of the components. The extracted model in the qualitative section includes 41 components in the framework of 9 main components (price, product, place, process, promotion, dedicated network, human resources, review and analysis, and packaging). The results of the factor analysis confirm the confirmation of the qualitative model. Finally, the order of influence of the components in DEMATEL method includes; Manpower, product, process, place, investigation, promotion, dedicated network, packaging, price and effectiveness order including; It is price, process, packaging, promotion, place, product, dedicated network, review and human resources. What can be obtained from this research is that the main and local sales channels complement each other and create opportunities for different types of farmers and reach different consumer segments.

Food security, supply chains, and food safety have all been affected by the Covid-19 pandemic. The social, economic, and health problems caused by the Covid-19 pandemic posed a direct threat to global life and well-being. The present study aims to identify the factors that influence sustainable development in the agricultural sector, with a particular emphasis on health aspects and critical situations (Covid-19 pandemic). First, the factors influencing sustainable development in the agricultural sector have been identified using the Grounded Theory technique and a thematic literature review. In the second stage, 20 experts in the economy, promotion, and sustainability of agriculture were interviewed using 17 questions to identify the variables that impact sustainable development in the agricultural sector, focusing on health factors and critical circumstances (COVID-19 pandemic). In the third step, the research's final criteria and sub-criteria were determined using the fuzzy Delphi technique and expert opinion. Then, using the fuzzy DEMATEL approach, the internal relationships, influence, and impact of the health factor criteria, critical conditions, and environmental, economic, and social conditions were determined. The results of the study indicate that among the sub-criteria of health, social, economic, environmental factors, and crisis situations, the sub-criteria of providing sustainable financial resources in the health sector, the degree of farmer personal development, facilitating the export of agricultural products in critical conditions, and the status of managing medical waste for Covid-19 and natural disaster have the greatest influence.

Of major constraints for crop production in arid and semi-arid regions of Iran are the lack of water resources and drought, and due to uncontrolled groundwater abstraction, the quality of agricultural water is declining gradually. Water pricing is one of the tools for water resources planning and water demand management. In this regard, the present study aims to determine the economic value of water in agriculture with respect to its different qualities in conditions of uncertainty in Rafsanjan and Anar provinces. Using interval mathematical programming, the shadow price range for different qualities of water was obtained. The price elasticity of demand was estimated in order to evaluate the effectiveness of pricing, the standard water demand function and to use it more efficiently. The findings show that the shadow price of water varies within different groups, and fresh water, moderately saline water and highly saline water were of the highest economic value, respectively. Comparing the efficiency of the plan in the current and equilibrium modes reveals that although water consumption has decreased by 50%, but the efficiency of activity has decreased by only 13.44%, and this implies that the amount of water consumption can be reduced in the virtue of redistributing water in pistachio orchards with minimal reduction in activity efficiency. This is feasible via eliminating low yield and profit, yet preserving higher yield pistachio orchards, may lead to reducing water consumption and extraction, and it also ensures high economic benefits for farmers.

Agriculture has always been considered as an important factor in the development of human civilization and today this sector is one of the most important economic sectors and the largest consumer of water in Iran and the world. Irregular extraction of groundwater by this sector has caused a water shortage crisis in most parts of Iran. Therefore, the country's water resources need to be planned and managed in order to be sustainable. One way is to determine the optimal cropping pattern by considering the quantity and quality of water. Therefore, in this study, using game theory, the optimal cropping pattern has been determined by considering the footprint index and water quality in Bardsir city. For this purpose, five major crops of this city have been considered and the necessary statistics and information have been collected from the Meteorological Organization, the Regional Water Administration and the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Kerman province and Bardsir city for the years 2005-2017. The results showed that wheat, barley, alfalfa, potato and fodder corn had the highest water footprint, respectively. In the optimal cropping pattern obtained from game theory compared to the current cropping pattern; the area under cultivation of wheat, barley and potato decreased by 4%, 7% and 12%, respectively, and the area under cultivation of alfalfa and fodder corn increased by 4% and 25%, respectively. The optimal cropping pattern obtained from game theory is recommended for this city, because in this pattern, in addition to economic benefits, attention has been paid to the quantity and quality of water so that water resources do not face a crisis.

The agricultural sector is one of the most important sectors of the Iranian economy. Lack of some important inputs such as water and environmental pollution are the main problems of this sector in increasing production. Therefore, increasing production and sustainability is one of the important goals of the country in the agricultural sector. Increasing efficiency is one of the best ways to increase production, profitability and sustainability of production in enterprises. In this study, considering the role of dairy industrial units in milk production and food security, the efficiency and ranking of resilience and efficiency criteria of dairy industrial farms in Kerman have been calculated.

Efficiency was calculated using data envelopment analysis (DEA) method and collecting 30 questionnaires from dairy industrial farms in 2020. In order to rank the criteria of resilience and efficiency, a hierarchical analysis process (AHP) was used. For this purpose, 15 paired comparison questionnaires were completed using the opinion of experts.

The results of ranking the criteria showed that the economic criteria with a weight of 0.5 are the most important for experts. The criteria of resilience with a weight of 0.205, the environmental criteria with a weight of 0.148 and the social criteria with a weight of 0.147 have the second to fourth ranks, respectively. The maximum profit among the economic sub-criteria has the highest priority in the opinion of experts. Labor expenditure among the social sub-criteria is the most important in the opinion of experts. The amount of water consumption among the environmental sub-criteria has been ranked highest by experts. Productivity is the most important sub-criteria of resilience in the opinion of experts. According to the results, maximizing profit, minimizing the cost of livestock rations and productivity are among the 11 sub-criteria considered to be the highest priority for experts. The results of efficiency calculation showed that there are no units in the range of 0 to 20. Three units were in the range of 20 to 40, 9 units in the range of 40 to 60, five units in the range of 60 to 80 and 13 units in the range of 80 to 100.

Based on the obtained results, by increasing efficiency, milk production and profitability of industrial dairy farms in Kerman can be increased. For this purpose, efficient units can be used as a model for inefficient units and increase the efficiency of units by changing management and how to use resources.

Achieving food and water security is one of the most important goals of policymakers in different countries. Water scarcity in Iran could be one of the major food security challenges in the future. For this purpose, climatic zoning was performed using the Domarten method. After calculating the water requirement using CROPWAT software; the amount of virtual water, water footprint, water productivity, volume of water consumed by each crop in each zone and the optimal food gap in different climates were calculated. According to the results; The per capita water footprint of the agricultural sector in hyper-arid, desert arid, semi-arid, Mediterranean and humid climates and Iran is 1611.97, 1228.09, 665.83, 884.01, 600.21 and 998.20cubic meters, respectively. In addition, the intensity of water consumption within the 5 climatic zones and Iran is 64.89, 88.03, 63.19, 41.01, 56.38 and 65.48 %, respectively. Net virtual water imports for each zone show that desert arid and humid zones are exporters of virtual water and hyper-arid, semi-arid and Mediterranean zones are importers of virtual water. The results show a contradiction between the realization of water security and food security in terms of quantity. The results showed that if the goal is to establish water security; by increasing the net import of virtual water (in the case of high-consumption products with low water efficiency), the intensity of pressure on domestic water resources in each area could be reduced. But if the goal is self-sufficiency; If the current situation does not change (crop composition in cropping pattern, yield and irrigation efficiency in each zone), more pressure will be put on water resources. Therefore, in order to achieve the goals of self-sufficiency and water security coefficients at the same time; It is recommended to increase the yield, improve the irrigation efficiency, formulate a suitable cultivation pattern and allocate water resources according to water productivity and its yield in each zone.

Energy demand and the factors affecting it have been growing in importance due to population growth, increased greenhouse gas emissions, and limited energy resources. The study of energy consumption in the agricultural sector of Iran shows an increase in the consumption of various energy carriers in this sector in recent years to increase production, employment, and food security. Given the significance of energy resources and environmental protection, the present study aims to investigate the impact of economic and non-economic factors on energy demand in Iran's agricultural sector over the period 1970-2017 using Markov switching-error correction model. The results indicate that the variable of agricultural production in both Markov regimes has a positive and significant effect on energy demand in this sector. The variable of the diversity of agricultural activities affects energy consumption in the agricultural sector positively. Also, the impact of human capital and trade liberalization in the agricultural sector on energy consumption in this sector is positive and significant. It is therefore suggested that to manage and optimize energy consumption, appropriate policies should be implemented in this sector to reduce environmental pollution and prevent the reduction of agricultural production

Water is one of the critical natural resources in the world and one of the scarce inputs of the agriculture sector in arid and semi-arid areas, including Iran. Consecutive droughts, lower groundwater levels, and lower water quality are among the concerns of farmers and policymakers in Iran. Therefore, the impacts of various factors, including the knowledge-based economy index, on the water crisis in Iran were investigated. In the present study, the Bayesian Network has been applied for modeling water crisis management in Iran. Therefore, key factors related to water crisis management were identified. The U.N. indicator was used to assess the water crisis. The composite index of the knowledge-based economy was calculated using the Knowledge Assessment Methodology. The results of the U.N. indicator indicated that Iran is in a state of a severe water crisis. The modeling results showed that advances in the knowledge-based economy index could alleviate the water crisis. Also, increased economic growth can exacerbate the water crisis. Sensitivity analysis showed that drought has the most significant impact on the water crisis in Iran. Therefore, planning and policymaking to advance the various components of the knowledge-based economy and moving towards sustainable development can help manage the water crisis in Iran.

Environmental pollution is nowadays one of the main challenges of the world. The global economic growth and the associated environmental degradation have put environmental protection at the forefront of attention. Regarding the aim of economic growth and its impact on environmental quality, the effect of various economic and human factors on environmental pollution and degradation is increasingly gaining importance in Iran. This study investigated the effects of economic growth, energy consumption, trade liberalization, urbanization, financial development, and human development on ecological footprint and environmental degradation in Iran over the period 1971-2015 using the Markov switching-error correction method (MS-ECM). Based on the results, the environmental Kuznets hypothesis was confirmed for the ecological carbon footprint with a reversed-U shape. Economic growth, urbanization, and energy use were found to have a positive and significant effect on environmental degradation, while financial development negatively influenced environmental degradation. Also, human development had a positive effect on the ecological carbon footprint. Finally, it is recommended to save energy, especially fossil fuels, by using clean energy, increase environmental awareness, and enforce strict environmental monitoring.

Crop marketing has an important role in accomplishing goals such as agricultural development, production increase, and enhancement of farmers’ income in developing countries. Citrus production, especially sour lemon, is one of the most important productions in Larestan County, Fars province in Iran. So, the determinants of the sour lemon marketing system improvement were prioritized in Larestan in this study using Analytic Network Process (ANP) in which data were collected through a questionnaire filled by experts in the region. Criteria were the 4Ps (Product, Place, Promotion, and Price) in the marketing mix and here were also some sub-criteria for each of the criteria. The criteria and sub-criteria were chosen based on other studies and also experts’ views in the region. Results showed that product and promotion criteria had the first and last priorities in improving the sour lemon marketing system in Larestan County, respectively. In addition, proper packaging and designing to create a competitive advantage was the most important sub-criterion for improving the sour lemon marketing system in the region. Also, the creation of processing industries and using marketing cooperatives were the next most important sub-criteria, respectively. According to the results, it is suggested to develop proper packaging, processing industries, and marketing cooperatives in the region.

Given the scarcity of water resources in many parts of the country, the increasing need for water, and increased volume of urban wastewater, planning to use the effluent of urban wastewater treatment plants by considering the environmental aspects as an appropriate solution is regarded to compensate for some of these scarcities and to reduce the pollutions. The recycled urban wastewater effluent is associated with many benefits and risks for human and environmental health. This research is aimed to evaluate the risk of using effluent in demanding sectors with respect to the priority of risk reduction.

In 2016, this research was conducted with the aim of assessing the risk of using the output effluent of the Northern Isfahan wastewater treatment plant. The statistical information of effluent quality was collected monthly and averaged from the laboratories of the relevant organizations. Considering six major qualitative parameters (pH, COD, BOD, TSS, TDS, and TC) and using environmental standards related to these parameters, an index was evaluated to assess the quality of treated wastewater as the Comprehensive Pollution Index (CPI). Then, using the library studies, regional studies, as well as specialized meetings with experts with knowledge about the status of output effluent of this treatment plant, risk and control checklists were prepared in the form of a questionnaire. The checklists were completed by 69 experts, and by generalizing the Frank and Morgan method, the Risk Index (RI) was calculated for potential effluent use in the study area and compared with the pollution index.

Results of the completed checklists showed that the agricultural sector had the highest risk score against the industrial sector and the industrial sector had the highest control score against the agricultural sector. In general, the mean score of 6-item risk checklist in the agricultural sector was higher than all sectors and the risks posed to humans in all four sectors had a higher score than other risks. Comparison of the qualitative standards of using effluent and quality of output effluent of the wastewater treatment plant also showed that the measured coliform parameter had the highest distance to its standard limit compared to other parameters. Therefore, the significance of this parameter in public health and community safety had a great impact on the calculation of pollution and risk indices. Hence, the risk index for the four sectors of agriculture, green space, natural resources, and industry was 54.71%, 23.97%, 15.1%, 6.22%, respectively, and the relative pollution index was 43%, 28%, 21%, and 8%, respectively. The results of these two indices were completely matched and the agricultural sector had the highest pollution and risk indices and accounted for the priority of risk reduction, and the effluent usage in the industrial, natural resources, and green space sectors will have lower risks to humans and the environment.

According to the results of this study, using the effluent of the wastewater treatment plant in the current conditions has lower risks for industrial use and natural resources (non-desertification) than agricultural use and green space irrigation. In general, the effluent use in water-based industries and growing unproductive plants will be followed by increased access of farmers to higher quality water resources and improved human and environmental health.

Kerman province has a high ranking in terms of the area of the medicinal herb Ferula assa-foetida; a species of Umbelliferae family. The oleo-gum-resin is extracted from its roots and used in medicine and industry. It has a great economic value for beneficiaries and exporters. As branding is one of the important issues in the field of natural resource economy, the purpose of this study is to evaluate the branding strategies of this medicinal plant using SWOT (- Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities and Threats)  technique in Kerman province, Iran. In this regard, a random sample of 19 experts working in this field was obtained. The necessary data were collected by interviewing and completing the questionnaire in the summer of 2017. After identifying the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats of Ferula assa-foetida branding, strategies were formulated using Analytical Network Process (ANP) technique to determine their weights. The results showed that Kerman province is in Strength-Opportunity (SO) situation in terms of branding potential. Therefore, in line with this situation, five strategies and nine operational plans were identified and prioritized based on the marketing mix elements (4Ps, Product, Price, Place and Promotion) and using the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) technique, respectively. Price and product strategies are considered more significant than place and promotion strategies. The operational price program of imitating the model of successful countries in the field of processing, pricing and branding of medicinal herb (with the weight of 0.337) was considered by experts as the first priority. Therefore, making the studies target to utilize natural situations properly, sweet and bitter type of operation, and resistance to pests and diseases of this medicinal plant under the supervision of the Forests and Rangelands Organization of Iran are good solutions for continuous presence in the domestic and foreign markets.

Providing food security to rural households is one of the goals pursued in national development plans. Therefore, off-farm income provides more financial resources to rural households and thus increases their food security. Given the role of food security in human health and development, the present research aims to explore the spatial effects of off-farm income on the food security of rural households in all provinces of Iran.

The status of food security of rural households in Iran was determined using data from 206963 Household Income and Expenditure Surveys and the recommended dietary for the Iranian population. Besides, the effectiveness of off-farm income on food security of rural families along with other effective factors was investigated the first time using the panel spatial autoregressive (SAR) model for the period from 2006 to 2016 with Stata software.

The results from the SAR model suggested that off-farm income has a positive and significant effect on the rural food security index. On the other hand, the significant value of the spatial lag coefficient of the dependent variable confirmed the existence of spatial effects, indicating that off-farm income has a positive and significant effect on food security.

Given that agricultural activities are mainly seasonal, off-farm activities along with conventional agricultural activities can improve the food security of rural households and prevent their migration to cities.

Nowadays, knowledge-based economics has been suggested as a way out of various problems. Given that more than 90 percent of water consumption is allocated to the agricultural sector, the establishment of agricultural knowledge that one of the components of which is the innovation and development of modern irrigation systems in agricultural lands, increases the efficiency of water consumption and production. Therefore, in this study, the effect of different components of knowledge-based economy on water productivity and consumption in Iran's agricultural sector during 2002-2017 has been investigated using the casual Bayesian network in 4 scenarios. The results showed that education and skills component had the least effect on growth rate of water use in Iranian agricultural sector and the probability of increasing growth rate of land area equipped with pressure irrigation with the implementation of the four scenarios of education and skills, economic and institutional regime, information and communication infrastructure and innovation system are 59/9%, 55%, 60% and 60%, respectively and the probability of decreasing growth rate of water use in the agricultural sector is 80%. So, moving to a knowledge-based economy can help to improvement of water efficiency in Iran's agricultural sector.

Reduction of atmospheric precipitation and excess exploitation of groundwater resources in Shahdad plain caused severe changes in the system of water resources use in this region. Water is one of the most important inputs for agricultural production and efficient management of this rare resource is one of the most important fields of agricultural development. The purpose of this research is to identify the effects of price and non-price policies of irrigation water on the cropping pattern and gross profit of farmers in the Shahdad county of Kerman province. Irrigation water price policy (increasing costs of water extraction by increasing the cost of consumed electricity) and the non-price policy for irrigation water (reducing available water for farmers) was assumed with default, 5, 10 and 15 percent. To achieve these goals, a positive mathematical programming model with quadratic cost function and the Production Function with Constant Elasticity of Substitution was used. The required data were collected using simple random sampling method and completed 106 questionnaires in 2016-17. The results showed that by adopting a price policy for irrigation water, the areas under cultivation of products with less water consumption would increase and the areas under cultivation of other selected crops would be reduced. Gross profit model under scenario 100% increase in the costs of water extraction, decreased by 26%. Adopting a non-price policy for irrigation water under the 15% scenario has led to a reduction in areas under cultivation of all selected products and the gross profit model, by applying this scenario, is reduced by 48%. Therefore, the adoption of complementary policies such as rising prices of crops, the use of varieties with high yield and the use of new irrigation systems is suggested in conjunction with this policy.

The agricultural sector is one of the most important sectors of the Iranian economy that have various factors affecting its growth. Drought is one of the natural factors affecting this sector. Nowadays, knowledge is the main factor of growth, production and solving different problems in countries. Research and development (R&D) costs and the rule of law index are indicators of the knowledge economy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of drought, R&D costs and rule of law on the growth rate of Iran′s agricultural sector. For this purpose, the casual Bayesian network method was used and data were collected for the period 2002-2017. The results showed that increasing the growth rate of R&D costs, increasing the rule of law index and placing Iran in wet conditions increased the agricultural water productivity and growth of this sector. Increasing R&D costs showed the best performance in improving the drought index. The highest probability of drought index was in the high condition with probability of 24.2% with 100% probability of R&D. The Rule of Law scenario showed the best performance in reducing water use in agriculture. So, by placing the rule of law probability in high position, the highest probability of growth of agricultural water use was in the low position with probability of 50.5%. Therefore, increasing R&D costs and targeting them, as well as enforcing laws and policies in various fields such as water resources can help increase water productivity in the agricultural sector and growth this sector.

The optimized cropping pattern can not only sustainably preserve water resources but bring more income as well. Therefore, since no research has been done on optimizing cropping pattern in the Shahdad county, this study identifies the optimized cropping pattern in this region with the goal of both maximizing farmers’ gross profit and decreasing water consumption.

Since more than 90 percent of the current cropping pattern in Shahdad is cultivated with the four following crops: irrigated barley and wheat, garlic, and Alfalfa, the needed data were collected during 2016-17 crop year, from 450 farmers who cultivate these four crops simultaneously. 106 farmers were selected for face-to-face interview by using questionnaire and based on simple random sampling. The ant colony meta-heuristic model based on binary knapsack problem to achieve the optimized cropping pattern was used.

The ACO algorithm showed that the cultivated area of irrigated barley, irrigated wheat, garlic, and Alfalfa changed from 509, 408, 617, and 1124 Ha in the observed cropping pattern to 421, 588, 998 and 651 Ha in the optimized cropping pattern, respectively. Therefore, the gross profit, by 282.96%, has increased from 201.59 billion Rials in the observed cropping pattern to 772 billion Rials in the optimal cropping pattern.

Suggestion

Results showed that optimized cropping pattern in addition to saving 5% of water consumption, will increase gross profit to 282.96%. Therefore, it is suggested to change cropping pattern based on results of this study.

Water is one of the factors limiting the development of the countryʼs agricultural economy and the appropriate way of allocating this input among different activities of agriculture is one of the main goals of agricultural sector policy makers in order to improve its efficiency and effectiveness. The water economic productivity of crops can be considered as an appropriate measure to identify the appropriate water allocation policy for each region.Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of policies on increasing the price of irrigation water (through increased extraction costs) and reducing available water (through blocking unauthorized wells and installing the meter on agricultural wells) on the water economic productivity index of the main crops of the Shahdad county located in Kerman city.The data and statistics were collected using random sampling and distribution of questionnaires among 106 farmers in Shahdad county. To investigate the effects of water management policies, the PMP model and the NPBD index for calculating the water economic productivity of agricultural crop was used. The results of calculating the NPBD index showed that among the selected crops, garlic crop with 10,025 Rials per cubic meter has the most economic water productivity. Also, the policy of reducing water availability had the least effect on the economic water productivity index of garlic product, by 18.64%. In addition, the mentioned policy, imposes the least economic losses on farmers in the region. It is suggested that before applying the policies of increasing the price of irrigation water and reducing available water consider the effects and consequences of these policies on the water productivity of crops in the region.

Given the unlimited needs of mankind and the limited resources available, human beings have always been thinking about how to use the available resources and facilities optimally. Energy plays an important role in economic activities and it is of great importance in agriculture. Over the past four decades, energy consumption in the agricultural sector has increased tremendously. In Iran, energy used to be provided with subsidies to various economic sectors like agriculture in order to support the production. In this study, the ARDL- FUZZY method is used to study the effect of various factors on energy consumption in Iran's agricultural sector. The data on energy consumption by the agricultural sector, the share of the agricultural sector in the economy, the ratio of capital to labor, energy intensity, and energy prices were collected for the period 1974-2015. The results indicate that the share of the agricultural sector has a positive and significant effect on energy consumption over the studied period. The capital/labor ratio has a positive effect on energy consumption. Energy intensity in the studied period eventually has an irregular trend and has a positive effect on energy consumption in this sector. Energy prices (fossil fuels and electricity) have a negative effect (a low level of significance) on energy consumption. Therefore, it is suggested to give more consideration to energy consumption and its underlying factors in policymaking due to the importance of energy and the problem of pollution.

Today, may countries have prioritized the tourism industry for sustainable and sustainable growth. Among the different forms of tourism, agricultural tourism can be one of the ways to reduce farmers' risk as a complementary agricultural activity, Because agriculture is affected by many uncontrollable factors. But to prevent the negative effects of agricultural tourism development, a strong interaction between different aspects of agricultural tourism needs to be established. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the sustainability of agricultural tourism through sustainability indices in three economic, social and environmental dimensions. To achieve this goal, the required data and information were collected in six top tourism-agricultural cities of Kerman province in 2017 using documentary method and questionnaire and survey of Delphi tourism and agricultural experts. Then, using mathematical programming model with the help of Spss, Excel and Gams software, the level of sustainability of agricultural tourism is practically determined in the selected cities. The results show that due to the available facilities and lack of proper infrastructure, the environmental dimension of agricultural tourism is not acceptable and has an inappropriate status compared to other aspects of agricultural tourism. The stability of this dimension was obtained in Kerman, Bam, Jiroft, Rafsanjan, Sirjan and Zarand respectively, 0.191, 0.226, 0.182, 0.122, 0.132 and 0.109, respectively. Therefore, it is necessary for the development of agricultural tourism to pay more attention to the principles of sustainability and protection of the environment, while achieving the benefits of agricultural tourism and preventing its environmental damage to sustainable development.

Economic theories show that the direction and magnitude of the fluctuations of economic variables depend on the type and magnitude of the shocks they are faced with. Various reasons are noted for fluctuations in demands for imports, including productivity shocks. Accordingly, this research was aimed at identifying the effects of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shocks of the agricultural sector on the demand for agricultural imports during the period 1982-2014. These shocks were divided by the Blanchard-Quah technique into two groups: permanent and temporary. Then, the effects of shocks on agricultural imports were studied by the Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) Method. The results showed that, in the short and longrun, temporary and permanent TFP shocks of the agricultural sector have had a significant effect on the demand for agricultural imports, and the effect of temporary shocks was stronger than the effect of permanent ones. Therefore, if the policymakers seek to reduce the demand for agricultural imports, the agricultural TFP must continuously be incremented.