فهرست مطالب mohsen biuck

One of the most distinguishing features of the modern international system is the dynamic nature of its orders. Despite the long rule of some types of international orders, these ruling orders were never permanent and changed and transformed on a regular basis. In general, in international relations literature, the period of transition or the transition period in the international system is defined as the time between the appearance of signs of deterioration of the traditional order and the formation of a new order. The period of transition in the international system has certain characteristics, and understanding these characteristics will greatly help policymaking and the way governments act to direct the future of the international order. In addition to explaining the characteristics of the transitional phase in the current international system, this research will use a descriptive-analytical approach and library study tools to draw consensus on the future of the international system. The research's findings demonstrate that, in accordance with conceptual evolution, semantic rotation, and theoretical rotation in the literature and concepts of international relations and the international system in transition, the inclusiveness and scope of the changes will be significantly wider than the change in official processes between governments. From this perspective, it will lead the world towards a pluralistic, multi-centered, multii-regional international order. The difference between this order and the traditional multipolar system will be the relative transition from the Westphalian and Western-oriented international system to the world-oriented international system, as well as the emergence of global politics.

Cognitive warfare is the fifth generation of wars in the popular political and military literature in the world, where the three main goals are social collapse, structural collapse and territorial collapse, through the two main strategies of destabilization and targeted infiltration, using a set of convergent technologies follow. The solution to confront the cognitive war in the field of social sciences and social psychology is cognitive preparation, cognitive empowerment or cognitive improvement of the citizens of a society and country, which the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, relying on native and Islamic literature, called it "Jihad of Explanation" or "Enlightenment Movement". The purpose of this research is to design and explain the conceptual model of cognitive warfare and the basic model of explanatory jihad in dealing with cognitive warfare. The research approach is exploratory and the research method is content analysis using library documents and the statements and guidelines of the Supreme Leader. The findings of the research show that if the explanatory jihad is carried out in a correct and principled way, it can be useful as an effective solution in facing and dealing with the cognitive war in the dimension of cognitive psychology and cognitive sociology and lead to the strengthening of social unity and restoration of public trust. After analyzing the concept and presenting a theoretical model of cognitive warfare in the context of a set of converging technologies, an explanation has been made regarding the design of the model and the optimal illustration of the problem of Jihad, taken from the intellectual system of the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, and in the final part of the research, suggestions have been made. And strategic prescriptions regarding dealing with cognitive warfare have been presented at the level of cognitive sociology.

The centrality of the discourse of the Islamic Revolution of Iran as one of the biggest popular revolutions of the 20th century and in a sense the first post-modernist revolution has been based on a critical thought in domestic and international dimensions. In fact, the Islamic revolution by challenging and criticizing the concepts and teachings of the modern world, such as the emergence of modern man with a new identity, the rule of macro-narratives, and the one-line narrative of history and development, which formed the basis of the discourse of modernism, and by rereading and breaking the foundations of these categories and creating an epistemological break, has opened a new horizon among the theories of revolutions and the development path of societies. The present research seeks to answer the question that in a comparative comparison, can the phenomenon of the Islamic Revolution in the field of attitude towards the international system be equated with the critical theory of the Frankfurt School? The research method is based on the comparative analysis and its tools are based on the available documentary resources based on the goals, slogans, views and readings of the leaders of the Islamic Revolution. The findings of the research show that despite the verbal and expressive similarities between the slogans and goals and views of the Islamic revolution and critical theory, the epistemology and methodology of the Islamic revolution and critical theory cannot be the same and in terms of the meaning of theses two schools, each of them is a unique worlview and discourse.

One of the geopolitical developments after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the South Caucasus was the conflict between the Republic of Azerbaijan and Armenia in the Karabakh region, which led to two wars. The first Karabakh war between 1988 and 1994 and the second war in 2020 resulted in two completely different results for the parties. If in the first war, in addition to Karabagh, Armenia captured seven other regions of the Republic of Azerbaijan outside of Karabagh; With the defeat in the second war, he was forced to liberate the occupied lands of Azerbaijan after several decades. In the recent war, both sides signed a ceasefire agreement (November 10, 2020) with the mediation of Russia; But the recapture of Nagorno-Karabakh and the defeat of Armenia, the geopolitical games formed after the ceasefire agreement, as well as the new policies of Azerbaijan and Turkey, have made the future of the crisis in this region ambiguous and complicated. Using the game theory, the present research seeks to answer the question that based on the convergence and divergence of stakeholders, what is the future available for the Karabakh crisis? The research approach is exploratory and using the method of structure and strategy of stakeholders to answer this question. The data collection method is based on a semi-structured expert questionnaire. Based on software analysis, the intervention of regional and international actors and the conflicting interests of each of the actors in this region have caused the complexity and instrumentalization of the crisis, and the continuation of the crisis will cause its consequences to spread to other regional security complexes. became.

There are many critical and controversial geographic regions in the Asian, some of which are the legacy of British colonialism. Each of these areas has the capacity to turn into a full-scale conflict region. Kashmir is one of the regions that has been the place of conflict between the governments of the South Asian region (India-Pakistan and China) for more than seventy years, and the dispute between India and Pakistan over the Kashmir region has caused three wars in 1948, 1965, and1971. The current research seeks to answer the question; what scenarios can be drawn for the future of the Kashmir crisis? This article has answered this question by using the method of actor interest analysis (beneficiary) - which is one of the relatively new methods in the science of future research. The findings of the research show that based on the interests of the main actors and participants in the crisis, the scenarios of referendum for Kashmir independence, maintaining the status quo, joining India, joining Pakistan, the possibility of an all-out war between India and Pakistan and the outbreak of civil war in Kashmir was drawn. The most possible realistic situation that can be imagined for the future of the Kashmir region is the continuation of the status quo (uncertainty of the Kashmir region) or the increase of tensions between the two countries of India and Pakistan and, accordingly, Radical movements will be taken by popular and Muslim movements and movements inside Kashmir.

The fluidity of the environment and the speed of developments in the field of regional and global politics over the past decade have caused the emergence of some emerging threats that, in the absence of foresight, can affect both national interests and become a source of security threats for the republic Islamic of Iran. Identifying emerging threats in various fields and providing solutions regarding them is a fundamental issue for the policy making system of countries because the changes in the domestic, regional and international environments have caused changes in the operational environment and interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran. and threats to national security. The general approach of this research is exploratory (future-study) which was carried out using a mixed method. In this research, in addition to using the environmental survey of texts to identify the macrotrends that shape emerging threats, 10 experts, researchers and academic elites of the country have been used to identify the drivers and emerging threats affecting the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The findings of the research show that the most important emerging threats in the field of foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran can be the weakening of the security-oriented realist order, fragile governments and the decay of the region, exploitation of bioterrorism by official and unofficial actors, hydro political conflicts, etc.

. This study identifies, analyzes and explains the structural divergence and convergence among the influential actors in the Middle East region through a semi-structured and expert questionnaire and using the software tool of Mactor, seeks to answer the question of how the future patterns of Middle East order will be in the future? Among the patterns of regional order,the preferred scenario for power is blocs change or continuity? The research findings indicate that a wide range of scenarios can be proposed regarding regional order, but the most probable scenario is instability and change in regional order and moving from a bipolar order pattern to a multipolar model in this region.

One of the future research methods to understand the convergence and divergence between actors is the method of structural analysis or actors' strategy. This method, which is in the category of quantitative futures research methods and is done through Mactor software, is a multi-subject-multiplayer model and is used when there are several actors in front of a number of subjects whose evolution in the future is uncertain and difficult to predict. The purpose of these models is to gain a better understanding of these situations and how they evolve by calculating and considering the interests and goals of different stakeholders and the relationships between them. The method of structural analysis and actor strategy consists of six main steps: identifying key variables (setting goals), identifying effective actors in the environment, forming a matrix of actors-objectives, forming a matrix of actors-actors, entering data into the matrix, processing and outputting the model

Software analysis of actors' perspectives and their goals reveals several basic goals:1. Despite the influence of actors on each other regarding the future of order in the Middle East, there is a conflict of interest between the actors regarding regional issues. The conflict of interests of the actors has led to a conflict in their goals in the Middle East regional order, and this conflict of interests and goals has shaken the current patterns of order in the region.
2. The majority of actors in the region and beyond, whose activism has a significant impact on the equations of the Middle East order, do not consider the current order model, ie the bipolar balance between the Salafi order led by Saudi Arabia and the revolutionary resistance order led by Iran, as their preferred order. In fact, the formation and consolidation of this order in the past decades in the Middle East has been caused by emergencies in the region, and regional and trans-regional actors have been forced to accept this pattern due to special historical circumstances. In the current situation and the complexity of international and regional developments during the transition period, each of these actors seeks to create their own role and status in the region and the cycle of global power; Therefore, it is natural for the actors in this region today to consider the current order as an imposed order and to move towards changing the current order.
3. If the existing bipolar regional order continues, the costs of other regional and trans-regional actors in balancing power will increase. Claimants of regional power in the Middle East in today's region, which has become much more diverse than in previous decades, and each of these actors who today see themselves as a regional power, their role-playing is overshadowed by two poles of regional powerand they have to play in the direction of these two spectrums of regional power in order to influence the regional equations.
4. Intra-regional and supra-regional actors seek a multipolar balance through instability in the region and changes in the construction of the current pattern. The preferred model of actors within the region, who today play a lesser role in the equations of this region, is the model of multipolar order, and in the next stage, if this order is not realized, they will follow the model of regional participatory collective order. However, for trans-regional actors, the model of regional participatory collective order is not desirable at all because it reduces their impact on regional equations and brings the region to a model of relative stability. In the model of a multipolar order, regional instability increases in the light of tensions and conflicts, and each power bloc will seek its own advantages, which will increase the involvement of transregional powers in regional equations.

are among the current characteristics of the regional and international environment. It is natural to change the patterns of regional order in the context of the transition to world order. What is unnatural is the lack of awareness of countries of their position in the set of regional order and global trends, And the principles of tools and capacities at the disposal of countries and provide an effective platform for regional and global competitors, which will lead to the loss of the position of countries in the future of regional and global order. Because one of the foundations of countries' role-playing in future global equations is to consolidate and consolidate their position within the regional order. In the general answer to the research questions, it can be said that according to the analysis of the available data, the patterns of regional order will change and the continuation of the existing order will be very costly even for the bipolar power of the regions. In contrast, Saudi Arabia tends to maintain the existing order and then the hegemony of the desired order, and Turkey and the supporters of the Ekhwans are also seeking to formalize their regional order through instability in the developments and patterns of regional order, and the transition to a bipolar order will be the only way to revive the Ekhwan. Trends and events indicate that the regional order is on the verge of change, and the actors of the regional order must adjust their policies and actions to the new conditions.

The flourishing of political parties and currents is one of the signs of the degree of development in societies. In contemporary Iran and since the formation of the constitutional movement, political currents have gone through many ups and downs and it can be said that political currents in Iran after the Islamic Revolution have not yet reached the stage of institutionalization and stability. A characteristic feature of political currents in Iran is the divergence and division among political currents in recent decades, and this can be one of the reasons for the instability and cross-sectional and seasonal activity of political parties in Iran. Therefore, the necessity of leading research seeks to answer the question of how factors and divergence among political currents in Iran after the victory of the Islamic Revolution can be analyzed? And what are the scenarios for the advancement of political currents in Iran? To answer this question, the method of causal-layer analysis, which is one of the qualitative methods in futures research, has been used. The research findings indicate that this divergence is due to a wide range of reasons from the level of causal systems (from the institutionalization of power to the formation of parties as elitist initiatives), worldview and discourse (from charismatic political authority to culture). Subsidiary-follower politics to myth-metaphor (Iranian individualism to belief in a strong state-weak society) can be analyzed. Three scenarios for the future of Iranian political currents can be considered: integration of currents as the security valve of the political system, the collapse of political currents in the traditional form, integration and consolidation in new social movements (virtualized parties).

The statement of the second step of the revolution is one of the documents that have provided the necessary grounds for theorizing about the issues of today and the future of the Islamic Revolution. Numerous issues with the approach of civilization vision in the heart of the discourse of the second step statement have been raised by the Supreme Leader of the Revolution, including the issue of foreign policy and how Iran deals with regional and international issues. The present study intends to analyze and explain the foreign policy issue of the Islamic Republic of Iran based on the theory of realistic idealism in accordance with the text of the statement of the second step of the revolution and to examine the results and application data of this theory. In this regard, first the theoretical foundations of idealism and realism are examined and then the model of realistic idealism is drawn. Then, using the content analysis method of the second step statement and coding foreign policy issues, the characteristics of idealism and realism are calculated. Findings show that although the discourse principles of the foreign policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran are consistent with the logic of idealism But the performance, results and outputs of Iran's foreign policy can be analyzed and interpreted within the framework of realism theory, and there is no contradiction between idealism as opinion and realism as practice. The analysis of the statement of the second step of the revolution as one of the late strategic documents in the field of foreign policy confirms this claim and the Iranian foreign policy system can be considered as "realistic idealism".

With the collapse of the Soviet Union, the sporadic conflicts between Republic of Armenia and Republic of Azerbaijan turned into a total war which resulted in the occupation of seven other regions than Nagorno-Karabakh by Armenia. the Republic of Azerbaijan, relying on the principle of territorial integrity of the countries, emphasizes the belonging of Nagorno-Karabakh to this country; But Armenia and the Armenian separatists of Nagorno-Karabakh reject the position of the Republic of Azerbaijan and insist that 80% of the inhabitants of Nagorno-Karabakh are Armenians. they believe that this region should be independent. Several negotiations and mediation of some countries to resolve this crisis peacefully were not successful. The fiercest clashes began on September 27, 2020 when Azerbaijan took military action to reclaim its lost lands. The war lasted for 44 days until November 10, when the two countries accepted Russia brokered peace deal. The main question of the article is what factors caused Azerbaijan and Armenia to accept the ceasefire and agree to its implementation. The purpose of this article is to explain the factors influencing the ceasefire agreement in Nagorno-Karabakh using the theory of decision-making in international relations.

This research is a theoretical study. The methodology of research has a descriptive-analytical nature relying on political geography and geopolitical approach. According to the type of research, data collection and analysis are based on library and documentary methods and using valid and important internal and external written works (including books, articles, reports, etc.) and online resources (websites and online articles).

Using new military tactics, the Azerbaijani army made up for the weakness in dominating mountainous areas and liberating the occupied territories, and thereby changed the geography of the conflict. To prevent the concentration of Armenian forces, without entering the central part of Nagorno-Karabakh, the Republic of Azerbaijan established a large warfront from north to south with the extensive use of advanced drones made by Israel and Turkey. The southern axis of Azerbaijani army moved to the south of Karabakh and reclaimed many regions from Armenian forces. The recapture of the strategic city of Shusha by Azerbaijan forced the Armenian side to accept the Russia brokered peace deal. One of the most important and influential factors for the military and political failures of Armenia in this war is the destruction and weakening of its strategic relations with Russia during last two years. Armenian PM's tendency towards US, and his expectation for US intervention and support in this conflict, weakened Yerevan's relations with Moscow. And finally, due to the lack of support from White House, Mr. Pashinyan was forced to sign a peace agreement with Azerbaijan which had very serious consequences for him.Political inexperience, lack of accurate environmental, intelligence and security assessment by the government of Nikol Pashinyan, as well as dismissal of experienced military commanders and heads of the National Security Service caused the government and the army to be unaware of the growing capability of the missile and drone system of Azerbaijan. As a result, the Armenian intelligence, security and military systems did not have a comprehensive and realistic assessment of the outbreak of a full-scale war in Nagorno-Karabakh and could not identify the extent and depth of such a pervasive threat. The arrest and trial of prominent political and military figures with the aim of combating economic and political corruption led to the perception in an important part of Armenian and foreign public opinion that the main goal of the anti-corruption campaign was to eliminate political opponents and it is a settlement of previous political grudges.These disputes provided an opportunity for the Azerbaijanis to exploit and defeat the Armenians militarily in the recent Nagorno-Karabakh war. Territorial extent, social (population) and especially military and economic factors are among the most influential geopolitical factors that led to the acceptance of a ceasefire between Azerbaijan and Armenia. Azerbaijan is superior to Armenia in several factors such as population and vastness, annual income, oil production, exports, military budget, professional military personnel and number of military equipment. The imbalance in the effective geopolitical factors (military, territorial and economic) in the Nagorno-Karabakh war led to superiority of Azerbaijan and induced the feeling of further defeats in Armenian if the war continued. So that the Armenian military resources and army were no longer fully efficient, and the army insisted on accepting the ceasefire. in his interpretation of the Collective Security Treaty, Putin effectively gave the green light to Baku that as long as the war in Nagorno-Karabakh and the seven occupied cities around it continues, Russia will not intervene in the war. They were the main winners of the recent dispute. The five-year ceasefire agreement means that up to the next five years, if either party acts against Moscow's interests, circumstances may change to its detriment. Russia liberated Nagorno-Karabakh from the control of Armenian as well as Azerbaijani by establishing a ceasefire and a government under Moscow's supervision. Although Russia did not support Armenia, it did not allow the whole of Nagorno-Karabakh to belong to Baku so that it would not end in favor of only Azerbaijan and Turkey. Russia waited for the Azerbaijan’s attack to reach its peak, then intervened to impose an agreement that its own special forces would guarantee. Russia is convinced that in the event of an emergency, only Moscow can guarantee Armenia’s security and bring Yerevan closer to Moscow again. This would be in Russia's long-term and strategic interests in the South Caucasus.

Results indicate that changes in the geography of conflict and military tactics, Armenia’s miscalculations, lack of geopolitical balance and Russian intervention have led to the ceasefire in Nagorno-Karabakh.

Some political unrest regions in the planet have acted as buffer between great powers. Such countries become buffer states if they have less power in comparison to other countries, especially their neighbors. The geographical space of these countries is geopolitically valuable and has attractions for regional and trans-regional political actors. The atmosphere of each buffer includes external and internal functions with degrees of importance that could emerge at different roles based on the temporal and spatial conditions. The governments of buffer countries are so fragile and unstable. Sometimes this situation is done by the great powers and sometimes from within the buffer state country. The 2003 invasion of Iraq by the United States discredited Iraq as a strong and effective country in the region. After the fall of the Baathist regime, Iraq became a buffer state, resulted in different and complicated consequences for the country in the last two decades.The main purpose of this study, which has been carried out based on descriptive-analytical method and library resources, is to evaluate the role of buffer state in the political stability of Iraq; by investigating its internal and external functions. Findings indicate that the situation of buffer state and its functions has led to numerous challenges, and as a result, the security atmosphere of Iraq has been vulnerable, fragile and sensitive that provides a suitable platform for the birth of political tensions, and consequently, political instability and endangering the national security of Iraq.

Explaining the role of geopolitical factors in Oman's foreign policy Mohsen Biuck Mohammad Akraminia Introduction Governments choose specific orientations and strategies to meet their national goals and interests, depending on their domestic needs, geopolitical position, and also under the influence and structure of the international system.the political relations and actions of governments in the foreign arena are a function of their geopolitical position .Oman ,despite its presence in the Middle East crisis zone , has a different foreign policy despite its presence in the Middle East crisis. Oman's foreign policy is a model of successful foreign policy for a country with a turbulent presence. The Middle East has avoided entering the region's sectarian strife and tension in the international system. The country has been effective in reducing tensions between Arab and non-Arab countries in a positive neutrality policy by maintaining good relations with influential regional and international powers.in its interactions it has been able to balance the conflicting interests of its neighbors and regional and trans-regional powers. The main purpose of this article is to answer the question: what geopolitical factors influence Oman's foreign policy? In response to this question, the author assumes that geographical location, Abbasid religion, border geopolitics, weak military forces, lack of population and energy resources, and the need for foreign investment, influence Oman's foreign policy.The present study is a descriptive-analytical one based on library resources and the "positive neutrality" theory is used to explain Oman's foreign policy.

The methodology of the research has a descriptive-analytical nature and a geo-political approach to geography. The fundamentals of data collection and analysis according to the type of research, based on library and documentary method, and using written and important internal and external authoritative works ( Whether it is books, articles, reports, etc.) and electronics (websites and electronic articles).

the geopolitical boundary of Oman's border with Saudi Arabia, Yemen, and especially with the UAE plays a very important role in its behavioral pattern. The most important geopolitical problem in Oman is that the UAE has split between the northern and southern parts of Oman, and the division of Oman's territory and the lack of independent land between Oman and the Peninsula in the event of a crisis could impede Oman's sovereignty. This is the area. Territorial disruption has made Oman need to establish and expand relations with regional and trans-regional poles in order to maintain territorial security, military operations and control of the Strait of Hormuz. Oman's relatively long sea border and coastal and port potential, especially the east coast, will require a safer refuge for Oman's regional and trans-regional countries such as the United States, Britain and China, as well as Oman's need to invest in these countries in accordance with impartial policies. Was. Oman has been religiously trying to keep its foreign policy away from religious currents while still maintaining good relations with all countries in the Arab and Islamic world. Oman's followers have mostly built on their interactions with other religions, advocating for unity and proximity to Muslims, seeking a relationship with other countries in a peaceful and intimate relationship, and in most of the sectarian and fundamentalist tensions in the region, preferring to adopt neutrality. Wish for a peaceful way. despite the enormous budget allocation in the military field, the Oman army is very weak and despite great powers such as Iran, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia it has no significant offensive and deterrence capabilities. The transfer of military bases to world powers and the recruitment of military advisers has led Oman to exercise extreme caution and moderation in its political relations with regional and international powers. In addition, the very small Oman population, which comprises more than one-third of the immigrants, is the single most important security-economic threat that will change Oman's demographic context. The weakness of the population has led its agents to exercise caution and moderation in their foreign policy and ultimately co-operate with the region's most influential neighbors and powers. The limited and expiring oil resources and high cost of its extraction and Oman's need for gas, as well as the pursuit of a policy of reducing oil dependence and launching large-scale economic projects have led to the need for Oman to regional countries and foreign investment. The size of the investment and the current economic situation reflect the stability achieved by positive neutrality policy over the past five decades.

oman's main goal in domestic and foreign policy is to provide stability,security and economic recovery based on security in the region and peaceful resolution of events.ensuring national interest has made neutrality and diversification of foreign communications an integral part of oman's foreign policy .the basic premise of this type of behavior is based on numerous geopolitical factors that have so far drawn from Oman a picture of calm and stability.The results show that the geopolitical boundaries of Oman's borders with neighboring countries especially the UAE, the geographical location of the Strait of Hormuz and the long coasts of Oman, the religion of ibadiyyah and other regional religions, the weakness of military forces, population shortages and presence Oman's immigrants and non-natives, lack of energy resources, and pursuit of a policy of reducing oil dependency and need for foreign investment affect Oman's foreign policy based on positive neutrality. Investment volume and current economic situation indicate stability based on policy Positive neutrality has been achieved over the past five decades.It is unclear whether the successors of Qaboos will believe in his engagement and impartiality and can withstand heavy pressure from Arab countries to join their jirga. However, since moderation and positive engagement with all countries in the region and the world has so far yielded positive results for this small Arab country, the successors of Sultan Qaboos are likely to adhere to this and will continue to do so in foreign policy.

In the late 2010 and early 2011, the Arab Islamic countries in the Middle East and North Africa underwent developments which were unforeseen and shocking in the view of global observers. The growth and spread of popular protests caused some rulers in Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Yemen to be dethroned in the form of a domino; however, in Bahrain, the popular protests faced severe squash by the Al-Khalifa rule. Nonetheless, revolutionary movements in Bahrain are of a long record in the country and the demonstration on 14 Feb. 2011 was the onset of geopolitics of resistance in the state. Despite Shia majority against the ruling minority, the revolutionary movement came to failure for a number of reasons including Bahrain’s geographical location and the revolutionists’ aspirations were unrealized. In the meantime, the present study aims to clarify the Bahrain’s geographical location in the geopolitics of resistance in the country and its impact on the Islamic Republic of Iran (IRI). The outcome of the study suggests that being in energy transit line and proximity to energy resources, the island location and the strategic value of the country, the 5th US Fleet deployment, being in the Persian Gulf and its neighborhood to Iran and Saudi Arabia affect the Bahrain’s geopolitics of resistance and breed negative consequences for Iran. This study exploits description-analysis and gathers data on desk and through reliable sites.

With the agreement of political parties in the Kurdistan Region to hold a referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, with strong opposition from the central government of Iraq and a sharp reaction to the military threat of regional powers, as well as the opposition of trans-national powers, the security and stability of the disputed region has once again threatened and hit a crisis. A new geopolitical emerged. Despite the opposition of the countries of the region, the Iraqi Kurdistan Region held a referendum on independence on October 25, 2017. In general, the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, which has been pursued since decades before by the Kurds, has become a crisis today. Because it has a lot of effects on the developments in the region and will have many consequences. This paper focuses on the Iraqi Kurdistan crisis, based on the model of Michael Burke, to explain the stages and factors behind the crisis.According to Michael Barke's theory, a crisis is based on the identification of four stages: the emergence, expansion, reduction and impact. Describing and presenting findings in this framework looks at how each stage will shape the domain and the next stage.The crisis process begins with the spark of an action, accident or environmental change, and other conditions expose it to a more intense level. The stage of expansion extends to another formulation among actors, and then the stage of decline begins and ends the crisis. Then, while an international crisis has been restrained, its effect remains on hostile parties, which is a sign of the stage of influence.The geopolitical crisis created by the announcement of a referendum on the separation of Iraqi Kurdistan from the central government has many complications. This crisis can be explored and analyzed using various theories. One of the major theories in geopolitics is Burcker's theory. The main issue of this paper is the lack of clarity about the stages and factors behind the geopolitical crisis of Iraqi Kurdistan based on the Burkhart model.The purpose of this article is to identify and explain the stages and factors behind the emergence of the Iraqi Kurdistan crisis based on the model of Michael Brocker.The main question of this article is how are the stages of formation and the factors behind the geopolitical crisis of Iraqi Kurdistan based on the model of Michael Brocker?The stages of the formation of the Iraqi Kurdistan's geopolitical crisis based on Michael Burke's model are: the fall of Saddam, the formation of the federal government in Kurdistan, the ISIL invasion of Syria and Iraq, the strengthening of Kurdish nationalism and independence, the domination of the Peshmerga in areas of Kirkuk, Ninawa and Diyala, The attack of the Iraqi Army and the Hamas al-Sha'abi forces in Kirkuk and the withdrawal of Peshmerga forces from Kirkuk. And the underlying factors in the Kurdistan crisis, the geopolitical prominence of the Kurdistan region, especially the Kirkuk region, the high level of symmetry between Iran and Turkey and the high level of opposition, accompanied by the threat of the two countries with the referendum and lack of support from the United States and the European Union.This research is of a theoretical type and descriptive method has been used. The data of the research have been gathered by special library method and using the documents of the first hand and analyzed by content analysis method.

This research is of a theoretical type and descriptive method has been used. The data of the research have been gathered by special library method and using the documents of the first hand and analyzed by content analysis method.

According to Michael Brother's theory, a geopolitical crisis is formed in four stages: the emergence, expansion, reduction, and the effects of the crisis and the factors that underlie and exacerbate the crisis, geography, conflict, the life of the actor of the crisis, the political system, the level of the international system, polarization And the intervention of regional and sub-regional powers. With a referendum in the Kurdistan region, a new geopolitical crisis was created in the region on the 25th of October 2017. Iraq's security and stability once again threatened and exacerbated the foreign and security policy of the region. Based on Michael Brocker's model, it became clear that independence, long-term territorial struggle and domination between the Kurds and the central government of Iraq over the strategic area of Kirkuk and the failure to implement Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution prepared the ground for the emergence of the crisis. ISIL's invasion of Iraq and the inability of the army to confront ISIL and then capture Kirkuk and parts of the districts of Diyala and Ninawa by Kurdish peshmerga, conducting a referendum in the Kurdistan region and subsequently an Iraqi military offensive against Kirkuk and reclaiming many areas on the expansion This crisis has added. The concern of the Kurdish climate leaders about the deterioration of the situation and their agreement with the central government to initiate talks has reduced the crisis and left significant political, security and economic implications.

Among the seven factors that underlie and exacerbate the crisis in the Michael Barrett model, geography and geopolitical prominence of the Kurdistan climate zone, and in particular the Kirkuk region, are the main causes and intensification of the current crisis and future crises, and one of the examples is the long-term conflicts that can be terminated Not detected. It was also found that two factors of intervention of regional and sub-national powers and the level of the international system played a key role in the short-term reduction of the Kurdish crisis. The symmetry of Iran-Turkey interests at a high level and the strong opposition, accompanied by the threat of the two countries with a referendum, and the lack of US-EU support for the Kurds, did not allow the Kurdish regional crisis to extend from the regional level to the international level.

Iran’s pursuit of nuclear technology, following the many sanctions imposed by the United Nations Security Council, the European Union and the United States against Iran, targeted national power and reduced Iran’s geopolitical weight. After 12 years of negotiations, with a change in foreign policy mechanisms and tools and adoption of a strategy of deconstruction, perceptions and trust, in the time of 11th government of Iran, Iran negotiated with six world powers in 14th of July 2015, in Vienna, a nuclear agreement achieved.
According to the effects and consequences of JCPOA, the purpose of this article is answering these questions: What are the JCPOA geopolitical strength, weaknesses, opportunities and threats? What’s Iran’s geopolitical strategy after JCPOA, Presenting swot method, position analyzing, strategic action (space) shows us that Iran is in (so) developmental-aggressive position after JCPOA. So, according to this area, the strategy of Islamic Republic Of Iran was formulated and presented

The prediction of the global transfer of power from the Western to the Eastern Hemisphere, as well as the emergence of some of its signs in the current decade, has drawn the attention of countries more to their geopolitical status after power shift, this study tries to explain the geopolitical weight of Iran in the process of power transfer using the interview method and the questionnaire. The model presented by the authors to assess Iran's geopolitical weight consists of nine economic, political, military, spatial, transboundary, territorial, scientific, social, and cultural factors that, after weighting, have paid to the indices of each of them to measure Iran's geopolitical weight. Accordingly, it was determined that if the power transmission process is fully implemented, if the maximum and minimum amount of Iran's geopolitical weight gain or weight considered to be "100+" and "100-" respectively, the weight change of Iran is equal to " 06/27 + ".This figure indicates that, firstly: the process of displacement of power will increase Iran's geopolitical weight, and secondly, the amount of this increase is approximately equal to "1/4" the maximum that can be added to the weight of Iran.