omidali adeli

The relationship between the exchange rate, stock price, housing, and coin as the items considered by the investor for portfolio management has always been a complex discussion, and the relationship between them and determining the cause of the transfer of volatilities (receiver and transmitter of volatilities) may be different in each country and different periods. According to this, in the current study, the risk spillover between currency, housing, coin, and stock markets in the period of 1385:01- 1400:12 monthly using the vector autoregressive model with time-varying parameters of Diebold-Yilmaz (DY-TVP-VAR) have been investigated. The results show that currency and gold coins are the main drivers of transferring and receiving volatilities in the investigated network. The housing market has only received the risk and volatilities of other assets, and the most volatilities have been transferred from currency and stocks to housing. Also, the stock market has received the most volatilities from currency and then coins. Based on the results, housing can provide risk hedging for the investment portfolio, and in other words, it is a safe haven, but coins relationship with other assets has been different over time; its selection should be based on other assets in the portfolio as well as political and economic conditions, and it is not a safe haven under all conditions. Therefore, during the sanctions period and in conditions where the return on assets has a significant difference from the mean, using the DY-TVP-VAR model can bring better results for investors to manage their investment portfolios.

The flow of investment in various industries is affected by macro-economic and political conditions. By analyzing these factors and the internal factors of the stock market, investors buy and sell stocks. In such conditions, fluctuations are transferred to other markets. Following the increased volatility in an industry, it becomes difficult for investors to understand and analyze that industry. It increases the expectation of speculation, and, in such a situation, trust in a particular industry is lost. In the best case, capital outflow from the stock market does not occur. The continuous growing trend of extreme fluctuations in financial assets attracts the attention of many financial investors, policy makers and academic researchers. The transfer of returns and volatility between financial markets has been significantly strengthened and complicated due to globalization, technological development and financialization of commodity markets. It is widely accepted that the integration and financialization of the global market not only leads to increased liquidity and ease of trading in financial markets but also strengthens speculation and thus increases market volatility, which may act as a channel for temporal changes. There have been overflows of asymmetric fluctuations in financial markets as well as other markets over time. The small and large fluctuations there create different performance in the markets. The financialization of global commodities significantly contributes to stronger net contagion effects among financial markets and highlights the central role of financial markets in the transmission of volatility. Based on this, the occurrence of fluctuations in a financial industry can be transferred to other financial industries. Of course, the causality and intensity of transfer and receipt of fluctuations can be different over time and in different decimals of financial market returns, which is very important in the risk management of the investment portfolio. A review of the literature and the studies conducted in Iran's economy and financial markets show that, with the economic shocks brought to the country especially the recent sanctions, the capital market can play an important role to attract astray liquidity and finance the government. This can be done through the sale of shares of state-owned companies as well as the issuance of debt securities, which can show the importance of investigating the time-frequency relationship between the fluctuations of different stock market industries. Based on this, the current research deals with transmission, receipt, and the causal relationship between the fluctuations of the banking, insurance and investment industries during different years and in short-term, medium-term and long-term periods. This can be very important for investors as well as policy makers.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the frequency-time dynamic relationship using the vector autoregression model with time-varying coefficients for insurance, bank, and investment companies in Iran's economy. In order to analyze the results, the TVP-VAR-BK pattern method was used in the period of 2011-2023 based on the frequency of the daily data. The variables used in this study included the index of banking, insurance and investment companies present in the stock exchange.

Based on the results, the banking and insurance industries were the receivers of returns, and the investment companies industry were the transmitters of returns in the short-term period. This shows that investment companies have been the main operators of the country's stock market financial network in the short term and have followed the movement and changes in the efficiency of the banking and insurance industries. Also, the average amount of communication between these industries was 17.53%. Investment companies were net contributors, and banks were net contributors. In the long-term period, insurance companies have received returns from other industries exactly equal to the returns that they have transferred. Accordingly, they have had a neutral role in the investigated network in this period of time. An important point is that investment companies have been net contributors, and the banking industry has been a net contributor in all the three time periods. This shows that any shock to investment companies' efficiency can cause a change in the efficiency of the banking and insurance industries. In general, the banking and insurance industries have been more passive in this network. This issue has been the case more in the short than the long term. Also, as the time period has passed on, the degree of connection between these three important industries of the capital market has decreased.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

The results of the research network analysis showed that, in general, the yield spillover from investment companies was transferred with a high intensity to the insurance companies and with a lower intensity to the banking industry. Also, the yield spillover was weakly transferred from the industry. The insurance has been transferred to the bank. In the short-term period, the yield overflow has been strongly transferred from investment to the bank and less intensively from investment to the insurance industry. In the medium-term period, there has been an overflow of returns from investments to insurance and weakly from banks to investments. Also, during this period, there has been a transfer of profits from the insurance industry to the bank. In the long-term period, the return has been strongly transferred from investment to insurance and more strongly from insurance to bank. According to the results of the research, the following suggestions can be considered by investors and policy makers. In the short-term period, if the investment companies that determine the network grow, the efficiency may be transferred to the banking and insurance industries, which is important to be considered by investors

Corporate governance plays an important role in strengthening good governance in banks and realizing a resilient economy.The current research seeks to identify and prioritize factors affecting corporate governance in the banking system with the resistance economy approach.

The current research is a mixed study. The theoretical population of the research was experts in corporate governance and resistance economy in the banking system.Sampling was done by judgment and based on the expertise of experts.Interview and questionnaire are the most important data collection tools.In this research, qualitative and quantitative techniques were used together.

At first, 34 factors affecting corporate governance in the form of seven main factors were extracted through theme analysis.The main research factors were: technological and innovative factors, legal and regulatory factors, transparency and reporting factors, structural factors, managerial factors, sustainability factors and educational-consulting factors.In the next step, sub-factors were screened by distribution of expert questionnaires and fuzzy Delphi method.11 factors had a defuzzified number higher than 0.7.The screened factors were evaluated by the Cocoso method.The priority factors were:the extent use of advisors and experts in resistance economy and corporate governance issues, the extent of banks' attention to indicators of resistance economy in sustainability reports, the extent of banks' transparency in the selection, hiring and promotion of managers, the use from data-driven technologies for transparency of contracts and the extent to which banks move towards sustainability.

Functional suggestions were developed based on the most important factors. Some of the most important suggestions were: the bank's use of the expert opinions of strong consultants in resistance economy and corporate governance, creating indicators in resistance economy and corporate governance and paying attention to these indicators in bank reports, using fourth generation industry technologies for the integrity of the bank and Strengthening data-driven decisions and banks' attention to sustainability indicators and sustainable financing.

The Central Bank, as the organ in charge of monetary policies, implements those policies that achieve the selected final goals. In order to achieve these goals, central banks usually use a mechanism. In the first step, the operational tool is selected, and, in the second step, this tool has an effect on a variable called the intermediate goal. Then, through its changes, the final goals are achieved. Depending on the economic conditions and environmental characteristics, the selected tools of the central bank can have different degrees of effectiveness in achieving the macroeconomic goals. Since the monetary policy used in Iran's economy is based on the prohibition of usury and the non-use of interest rates, the question to arise is how the restriction of zero interest rate (prohibition of usury) is applied in the Islamic economic system. Although we know that the theory of zero interest rate, which is discussed in conventional economics, has structural (theoretical and practical) differences with the concept of prohibition of usury, it can  have implications for the Islamic economy and our country. In this regard, the issue of compensation for currency depreciation has always been the focus of Islamic economic researchers. For example, compensation for the depreciation of money up to the inflation is accepted according to the fatwa of the Supreme Leader of Islamic Republic of Iran. Therefore, it is necessary to evaluate the economic effects of the zero real interest rate policy on the variables of Iran’s macroeconomics and analyze its consequences. In this regard, the purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of zero real interest rate monetary policy on macroeconomic variables.

In this research, a Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) including the banking system has been designed, in which the central bank determines the policy interest rate in the market by using the open market operation tools and implements its monetary policy. In the conventional structure of DSGE models, it is necessary to determine the parts of the model at first. In this study, the described parts are household, banking system, producer of final goods and services, government and the central bank as the determiner of interest rates. The study also uses the seasonal data of the period 2009-2021 with the Bayesian method.

The findings of this research show that, based on the defined monetary policy rule, the interest rate reacts to changes in the inflation rate and production. According to the findings, the reaction of macroeconomic variables to the shock of one percentage increase in the nominal interest rate is as expected. With the increase in the interest rate, household consumption decreases. Based on the optimal path of the investment expenses, the investment costs and, consequently, the amount of the capital decrease. As the marginal cost items decrease, the total production level decreases too. Therefore, based on zero real interest rate, the direction and path of change of important macroeconomic variables in the policy is in line with expectations. The effects of the zero real interest rate policy show themselves better when compared to those of the non-zero real interest rate policy. The rule based on zero real interest rate is less able to control economic fluctuations because, in the case where the monetary policy maker actively reacts to economic fluctuations (non-zero real interest rate policy), its response to the inflation rate is not point-for-point. So, it can control economic fluctuations by changing the real interest rate.In the case where the interest rate reacts exactly point-for-point to the inflation rate, because the real interest rate does not change, there is no noticeable change in the path of macroeconomic variables; therefore, in the face of economic shocks, stable equilibrium will not be established. In fact, the zero real interest rate, meaning the equality of the nominal interest rate and the inflation rate, violates Taylor's principle in monetary policy. According to Taylor's principle, the policy based on the interest rate rule can lead to a sufficient response to the variables, thus reestablishing the balance if the sensitivity of the interest rate to the inflation rate is greater than point-for-point. If this sensitivity is equal to one, it cannot bring the stable equilibrium conditions for the economy.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

As it was said, in the current situation of the country, the implemented interest rate indicates the passive state of the monetary policy. In other words, it shows that it cannot bring a stable balance in response to economic shocks. In the current research, it has been tried to simulate the effects of implementing the policy of zero real interest rate and analyze its effects on macroeconomic variables, considering the theories about compensation for currency depreciation and the recent fatwa of the Supreme Leader of Islamic Republic of Iran, as well as some theories based on the zero real interest rate in the conventional economy. The results of this simulation show that the mentioned policy cannot guarantee the establishment of equilibrium in the economy after the occurrence of a shock. This is because, like the current monetary policy of the central bank, this policy violates Taylor's principle. Therefore, in line with the mentioned fatwa on compensating the depreciation of the currency up to the inflation rate and in order to correct this policy rule, some variables can be considered to achieve a stable balance. These variables are such as the population growth rate, economic uncertainties, political subsidies, etc., which can be the subject of future research.

The Liquidity risk is one of the most important risks for any banking system, liquidity risk is the bank's inability to cover its financial obligations on maturity without incurring costs. The goal of the researchers is to present the appropriate amount of input and output variables of the liquidity system at the optimal level so that they can observe the ratios affecting the bank's liquidity at the standard level. Considering the importance of the discussion of bank liquidity risk, the main goal of the current research was to investigate the asymmetric effects of fluctuations of macroeconomic variables on the liquidity risk of banks in Iran. In this regard, the financial information of the country's banking system has been collected during the period of 2011-2022. In order to reach the research hypothesis and test them, the autocorrelation method with Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lags (NARDL) has been used. The findings of this study show that the variables of exchange rate, inflation, GDP and liquidity have asymmetric effects on liquidity risk in the country's banking system.

The transition from branch-based banking to technology-based banking improves performance, reduces costs, and makes banks more agile. But the opportunities created for banks are not without challenges. The current research seeks to identify and prioritize the challenges faced by banks in the transition from branch-based banking to technology-based banking. Due to its benefits for the banking sector, the current research has an applied orientation and its methodology is quantitative. In this research, two quantitative methods, fuzzy Delphi and Marcos, were used for data analysis. Research challenges were extracted through literature review and interviews with experts. In the following, these challenges were screened by distribution of expert questionnaire and fuzzy Delphi method. Finally, the priority level of the screened challenges was determined by distributing priority questionnaires and the Marcos method. The content coefficient of the research factors was acceptable, which means the validity of the research questionnaires. The theoretical community of the research was the managers and senior experts of Refah Bank and university professors, and the sampling method was done as a judgment based on the experts' expertise. The sample size in this study was equal to 15 people. At first, 26 challenges were extracted through literature review and interviews with experts. These challenges were screened by the fuzzy Delphi method and nine challenges had a fuzzy number higher than 0.7. Screened challenges were prioritized by Marcos method. The prioritization results showed that the challenges of cooperation with financial startups and FinTechs, the occurrence of unknown risks and problems during the implementation of new technologies, the decision-making style in the organization, and the regulation of new technologies were the highest priorities, respectively. Finally, the research proposals were developed based on the priority challenges with the focus group interview method. Some of these suggestions were: using RegTechs to identify and analyze the risk of cooperation with fintechs, using risk analysis and foresight committees to identify and predict future risks, strengthening the data-driven decision-making style by using technologies such as business intelligence and big data and paying attention to fair and comprehensive regulation considering the interests of all stakeholders involved.

The purpose of the present study is to investigate the influencing factors on the quality of implementation of performance-based budgeting in project-oriented organizations in the housing sector of Iran.

This research is a qualitative-quantitative study. In the qualitative aspect, theme analysis was employed, while the Fuzzy-Delphi technique and developed Kepras were utilized in the quantitative aspect. The research factors were derived from interviews with experts and theme analysis. The statistical population of the study comprises employees specializing in project planning and budgeting within project-based companies operating in Iran's housing sector. The sampling method was purposive, and the sample size consisted of 20 experts with relevant knowledge and experience in project-based organizations in the housing sector. To screen and prioritize dimensions and indicators, two questionnaires for expert assessment and prioritization were utilized, and fuzzy techniques - Delphi and Kapras - were employed for analysis.

Among the indicators calculated from interviews with experts, using the theme analysis tool and employing the Fuzzy-Delphi technique for screening, 13 indicators had a fuzzy number higher than 0.7. The developed Kepras technique was utilized for the final prioritization. Through the Kepras technique, three indicators of importance intensity (weight 0.33), degree of certainty (weight 0.33), and expertise of experts (weight 0.33) were analyzed. According to the results, the indicators with the highest priority are business intelligence, information technology infrastructure, transparency, stakeholders, drafting laws in line with performance-oriented budget, and supervision.

For the optimal implementation of performance-based budgeting in the housing sector, business intelligence, information technology infrastructure, transparency, and stakeholder engagement hold special priority.

This study aims to investigate the relationship between currency crises and fluctuations in banking credits in Iran. Utilizing a time-varying coefficients approach spanning from 1989 to 2022, alongside economic boom and recession indicators, the analysis assesses the impact of currency crisis occurrences on banking credit cycles. The currency crisis index, based on a dummy variable, and the credit cycle index, derived from banking credit booms and busts, are examined alongside the economic cycle, gauged by production fluctuations using intermediate filters. Findings suggest that currency crises influence the occurrence of credit cycles and production facility cycles, while shocks stemming from economic cycles exacerbate currency crises and credit cycles within the banking system. Given the bidirectional relationship observed between the currency crisis index and credit cycles, policymakers are advised to exercise caution in implementing drastic measures during economic fluctuations and credit cycles. Prudent management of currency markets can mitigate the adverse effects of currency crises on economic variables.

According to The Fisher (1930) hypothesis implies that broadly selected common stocks should be a hedge against inflation in the long run, in the sense that a change of expected inflation leads to a proportional change in nominal stock return. The goal of this paper was to study hedging against inflation using the shares of member companies of Tehran Stock Exchange. The statistical population includes companies listed on Tehran Stock Exchange. As a statistical sample, 18 companies were selected whose market value at the beginning of 2021 was at least 50% of the total stock market value. The research method is causal and the method of data collection in the field of theoretical literature is based on library studies and in the field of testing the research hypotheses is documentary. The empirical method used is the mixed data sampling (MIDAS) regression model. The results show that the stock prices of companies react differently to the inflation, and therefore it is possible to hedge against inflation by investing in these companies. Also the econometrics model reporting significant relation between nominal stock return and inflation. Moreover, the results show that the ability of companies to hedge against inflation is different, and the stock price changes for portfolios of companies differ in their degree of being explained with respect to inflation beta quantiles.

The aim of this thesis was to investigate the effect of fluctuations of macroeconomic variables on the solvency of the insurance industry in Iran. In this regard, the information of insurance companies has been collected during the period of 2011-2022. In order to achieve research hypotheses and test them, vector autoregression (VAR) method has been used. In this study, first, using the GARCH model, the volatility index of macroeconomic variables was extracted, then the effect of the shock of the fluctuations of macroeconomic variables on the solvency of insurance companies was investigated in the form of action-reaction diagrams. . The obtained results indicated that in most of the insurance companies used in the statistical sample, the shock of production fluctuations, exchange rate and inflation rate has led to a decrease in the solvency of the insurance company. Based on this, instability and fluctuations in macroeconomic variables lead to an increase in uncertainty in the economy, and this reduces the financial strength of the insurance company and the ability to adhere to the financial obligations of the companies. Based on this, instability and fluctuations in macroeconomic variables lead to an increase in uncertainty in the economy, and this reduces the financial strength of the insurance company and the ability to adhere to the financial obligations of the companies.

Smart contracts are one of the most significant applications of blockchain technology, which have gained considerable importance in the financial industry. These contracts promote transparency and enhance good governance in the banking sector. The present research aims to conduct a Futures Study of smart contracts in the banking industry using a scenario-building approach. This research is applied in nature, and methodologically, it is a mixed-methods study. In this research, fuzzy Delphi, fuzzy WASPAS, and interviews with focus groups were used to analyze the data. In the first step, 37 drivers were identified through a literature review and interviews with blockchain experts. These drivers were then filtered using expert questionnaires and the fuzzy Delphi method. Nine drivers were selected for final prioritization using the fuzzy WASPAS method. The filtered drivers were ranked through prioritization questionnaires and the fuzzy WASPAS method. Based on the scores of the fuzzy WASPAS method and considering three criteria—expertise, importance intensity, and certainty level—the drivers of coordination and integration level of banks in adopting new technologies and contracts, as well as the integration level of information systems in the banking industry, were given the highest priority and were selected for scenario mapping. The research scenarios were developed based on the two prioritized drivers and through interviews with focus groups. These scenarios included: Smart Banking, Integrated Banking, Island Banking, and Traditional Banking. Smart Banking represents the ideal scenario, and practical recommendations were developed based on this scenario.

New technologies, especially data-based approaches, have greatly influenced the banking sector in recent years. The role of these technologies in the financial and banking industry will be more significant in the future. The present research was conducted with the aim of identifying and analyzing the drivers affecting the future of technology-based banking. The current research has a quantitative methodology and in terms of data collection, it is a survey study. The theoretical population of the research is banking technology experts and sampling was done based on the experts' expertise. The sample size was equal to 10 people. For the field analysis of the drivers, two expert and priority questionnaires were used. Questionnaires were evaluated and analyzed with two methods, fuzzy Delphi and Copras. 25 drivers were extracted through literature review and interviews with experts. The extracted drivers were evaluated by distributing screening questionnaires and fuzzy Delphi method. 10 drivers had a defuzzy number higher than 0.7 and were selected for the final ranking. The remaining drivers were evaluated with three indicators of experts' expertise, severity of importance and degree of certainty. Based on the scores of the Copras method, the priority drivers were: financial technology acceptance models in the banking industry, the degree of compatibility of data-based technologies with banking structures and systems, the level of expertise and skill of employees in data-based technologies and the type of attitude of banks towards FinTechs. Practical research proposals were presented based on the most important drivers.

Various components affect the financial health of banks. This article seeks to identify and analyze the factors affecting the financial health of banks. The current research is applied in terms of orientation and quantitative in terms of methodology. In this research, quantitative techniques have been used for data analysis. Fuzzy Delphi was used to screen the components and Fuzzy Dimetal was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the components. The theoretical community was experts in the field of banking and sampling was done in a judgmental way. To collect data, background review, fuzzy screen questionnaires and effectiveness assessment were used.Fourteen components have been extracted from the background review and theoretical foundations. These components were screened with fuzzy Delphi and four components had a fuzzy number less than 0.7 and were removed. Ten components were analyzed from the point of view of effectiveness and effectiveness with fuzzy Dimetal technique. The components of rules and regulations, transparency, prohibition of usury and fairness of all relationships have the greatest net effect. One of the necessary tools to realize effective supervision in the banking network is to create transparency, disclose information and provide proper access to the latest data and information. In this case, experts specializing in bank analysis can monitor the banks' activities. In the banking industry, which is an industry based on trust, it is necessary to provide extensive supervision in order to maintain this trust, establish stability and prevent crises and bankruptcy. The health of banks mainly depends on compliance with the standards of capital adequacy, asset quality and profitability, which are greatly influenced by information transparency and regulations.

The credit cycles have a major effect on the behavior of economic enterprises during periods of boom and recession. The change in the behavior of economic enterprises leads to its contagion to real and nominal sectors in the economy. On the other hand, the currency crises have influenced the investment decisions of various economic sectors. The purpose of this paper was to examine the relationship between credit cycles and currency crises in Iran. In this study, the variable coefficients approach was used over time for the period of 1991-2020. In this regard, credit cycles and currency crises have been used by the Christiano-Filtzgerald filter and the adjusted index of currency crises. The results showed that there has been a coincidence between credit cycles and currency crises in the country. Also, the results showed that the currency crisis had a negative effect on the GDP and economic growth in the country. In addition, it was observed that credit cycles have led to economic growth during boom times and decreased economic growth during recessions.

One of the most important goals of economic policymakers in every country is to achieve high economic growth. For this purpose, this study aims to identify the most important variables affecting Iran's economic growth in the period of 1981 - 2021 using the dynamic averaging model. The results showed that in Iran's economy, the variables of current government expenditures, tax revenues, income inequality, household consumption expenditures, and domestic investment are the most important variables affecting economic growth. Also, the results showed that the manner and probability of these variables influencing economic growth over time are not constant and are subject to exogenous impulses such as revolution, war, oil price shocks, applied economic policies, structural changes, and sanctions. The results showed that in Iran's economy, the variables of current government expenditures, tax revenues, income inequality, household consumption expenditures, and domestic investment are the most important variables affecting economic growth respectively.

Delay is an event that increases the completion time of a part of the project, which is one of the main problems in the executive projects of the country and causes an increase in project costs as well as damages. Project delays pose significant risks to the project that are dangerous for the project to continue. These risks are of particular importance in oil and gas projects. The purpose of this study is to identify and rank the risks related with delays in oil and gas projects. The present study is applied in terms of orientation and quantitative in terms of methodology. The statistical population of the study is managers and experts of risk and delay in oil and gas projects in the country. Among these people,15 people were selected as the sample by judgmental sampling method. For data collection, two questionnaires of expertise and prioritization were used, both of which had validity and reliability. In the first step, the risks associated with project delays were extracted by reviewing project risk and delay articles. In the next step, these risks were screened using the Binominal test.11 risks had a significance coefficient higher than 5% and were excluded from the calculations. The remaining 8 risks were prioritized using the Codas distance technique. According to the data of the relative evaluation matrix and the scores of each risk, the risks of sanctions, inflation, and lawsuits and complaints had the highest priority, respectively. Finally, research proposals were developed based on significant risks.

The purpose of this study is to estimate the cryptocurrency tail risk and its effects on macroeconomic variables, especially real exchange rates and liquidity growth in Iran have been evaluated. For this purpose, statistical information for the period 2010-2020 based on the frequency of monthly data has been used. The approach used in this paper was the vector autoregression method with time-varying parameters (TVP-VAR). In the first part, the risk tail index was extracted using the threshold value for cryptocurrencies (bitcoins). Comparing the results of the VAR and TVP-VAR models, it can be seen that the shock from the Bitcoin virtual currency area has led to an initial decline in liquidity growth and exchange rates. However, after 2 periods, the effect of this shock reached its highest value and led to an increase in the growth of liquidity and the exchange rate, and the effect of this shock disappeared in the long run and converged towards the equilibrium value. The results obtained from the shock from the virtual currency area in the VAR model show that the variables of liquidity growth and exchange rate in all three cases have shown a positive reaction to this shock and the effect of this shock has disappeared in the long run.

the present study seeks to identify and prioritize the factors affecting competitiveness at both the firm and industry levels in the field of aviation. The theoretical population of the research is the managers and experts of Iran Air and the aviation industry. The sampling method was judgmental and based on the expertise of individuals. The present research is applied in terms of orientation and quantitative multi-method in terms of methodology. At this stage, 30 factors were extracted at the firm level and 25 factors at the industry level. Because the number of these factors was high, these factors were screened by Binominal test. According to the significance coefficient, 8 factors related to the firm and 7 factors related to the industry were selected for the final prioritization. In the next step, these factors were prioritized separately using the Aras technique. Factors with priority at the firm level are: the factors of expertise and skills of human resources used in the firm or company, the number and composition of the firm's transport fleet and the firm's resilience to environmental shocks. Factors with priority at the industry level are as follows: The degree of consensus of key policy makers on the core issues of the industry and its prospects, the required infrastructure and the limitations of technology transfer in the import of new aircraft. To validate the results, the effective factors were also prioritized by Codas technique. The results of the two methods were very close.

The effect of monetary policy on the exchange rate in the Dornbusch’s point of view is that unpredictable changes in the money supply play a major role in exchange rate fluctuations. In a fixed exchange rate system, keeping the country's currency stable against foreign currency stabilizes a country's currency and provides grounds for increasing the credibility of policy makers; at the same time, the floating currency system provides the basis for removing the effects of external shocks from the economy. In addition, the use of a fixed exchange rate system has reduced the uncertainty of the real sectors of the economy, and this issue can improve international trade and domestic investment. However, the use of a floating exchange rate system can lead to the independence of monetary policy in the face of shocks and can be considered as a tool to stabilize the economy in times of business cycles.

THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:

The theory of exchange rate overshooting was proposed for the first time by Dornbusch in 1976. If the economy is continuously exposed to unexpected monetary expansion, the exchange rate will exceed its long-term trend in the short term and return to its long-term level in the long term. The overshooting in the exchange rate is a short-term phenomenon that is formed due to the price sticky in the short term and the high adjustment speed in the financial market and the slow adjustment in the real sector of the economy. The dominant core of monetary systems is the use of a "nominal anchor". The nominal anchor is a variable that is used to achieve the goal of monetary policy, and the purpose of its authority is to adjust inflationary expectations and commit the monetary authorities to achieve the declared goals. The innovation of the present study compared to the previous studies is the use of a dynamic approach as well as the examination of the exchange rate jump in the conditions of a stable and floating exchange rate system, which has been less considered in previous studies.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationship between monetary policy and exchange rate overshooting in the Iranian economy. In order to test the experimental model of the research, the data of the period 1989-2020 based on the frequency of seasonal data and the generalized moment method (GMM) were used. Based on this, in the form of two stable and floating exchange systems, the rate of jump and deviation in the exchange rate has been calculated by using the Hodrick-Prescott filter and the effect of monetary policy and macro variables on the exchange rate overshooting has been calculated.

The results showed that the monetary policy leads to an overshooting in the exchange rate and creating a deviation in the exchange rate, and this issue has been more severe in the floating exchange rate system compared to the fixed exchange rate system. Also, the results showed that the production gap had a significant effect on reducing the deviation of the real exchange rate. On the other hand, based on the estimated coefficient, it was observed that the deviation of the inflation rate leads to an increasingly deviation of the real exchange rate.

 CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS:

Since the relationship between monetary policy and exchange rate is positive, with an expansionary monetary policy, the exchange rate increases, which means the value of the national currency decreases. Therefore, in order to reduce the negative effects of monetary policy on the value of the national currency, it is suggested that appropriate policies and executive tools be designed and implemented by the government so that with proper management, it can be placed on the path of economic activities in the society. There is a need for monetary policy stability, which itself requires the existence of an independent central bank.

The foundation of every science based on a series of fixed principles. The budget, likewise an economic and administrative point of view, is based on the principles and foundations referred to as the budget principles. This research’s proposes to find the influencing factors on performance-based budgeting in project-based organizations and to determine the relationships between these factors to provide a model in the housing sector. A sample size equal to 15 experts who had relevant knowledge and experience in the field of project-based organizations in the housing sector were selected. For this purpose, 29 factors identified using the theme analysis technique, through interviews with experts and the theme analysis tool. Then, the factors screened using the binomial test method and expert questionnaire. Finally, the screened factors were analyzed using the Demetal-fuzzy technique. According to the net effect index obtained through the difference of effectiveness and effectiveness of factors, the research results showed four elements: systemic attitude, incentive and punishment system, employee training, organizational culture, which affect performance-based budgeting in project-based organizations.

One of the most prominent hypothesis in environmental economics is the Porter hypothesis. The Porter hypothesis argues that more stringent environmental policies can actually have a net positive effect on the competitiveness of regulated firms because such policies promote cost-cutting efficiency improvements, which in turn reduce or completely offset regulatory costs, and foster innovation in new technologies that may help firms achieve international technological leadership and expand market share. Given the importance of this hypothesis to policymakers and firms, many studies have been conducted to prove or disprove this hypothesis.

in this study, we used panel smooth transition regression for 25 OECD members during 2000-2015.

the results indicated that the weighted indicator of environmental policy stringency in linear and nonlinear part of the model had positive and significant effects on increasing the number of selected environmental technologies. The coefficient of variation was estimated to be 0.142 in the linear part and 0.213 in the nonlinear part. The speed of transition between the two regimes of weighted growth index of environmental policies, according to the estimated transition parameter, is 3.17.

Analysis of results shows that when the weight index growth of environmental policies is low, the severity of the impact of independent and control variables on the number of selected environmental technologies will vary. Given the experience of developed countries, improving the state of the legal system and property rights, increasing official and state aid for environmental development, and increasing state funding for environmental research and development can play an effective role in improving competitiveness and enhancing enterprise innovation.

In the years after the Islamic Revolution of Iran, for various reasons, Iran's economy has always been under the economic sanctions of the United States, the United Nations, or the European :union:, sometimes by the United States alone, and in some periods by all three. In the present research, the impact of positive and negative shocks on the sanctions index through two paths of impact on the budget deficit and also the impact on the exchange rate and inflation on liquidity in the period of 1979-2020 has been investigated using the Threshold Structural Vector Autoregressive model (TSVAR). According to the research results, the threshold of sanctions growth through the path of exchange rate and inflation was 5.162 % and through the government budget deficit channel was 3.057%, which shows that the threshold of sanction growth in the exchange rate channel and inflation is greater. Also, the difference in the country's liquidity response to oil revenues is related to the sanctions threshold. Based on this, and to reduce the effects of exogenous oil shocks on liquidity, the stabilizing role of the National Development Fund should be considered along with the management of inflationary expectations.

Banks and the volume of their financial transactions have a positive effect on the income of companies and the country's economy, and paying attention to their stability conditions can lead to a stability economy. Considering the importance of bankruptcy and banking crises, the main purpose of this study is to investigate the effects of liquidity and credit risk on Iran's banking stability using the z-score index. In this regard, financial information of 15 selected banks listed on the stock exchange during the period 2012-2020 has been collected. In order to achieve the research hypotheses and test them, the combined data approach and, the panel smooth transition regression method have been used. The findings of this study show that liquidity and credit risk have significantly increased bank stability first and then decreased banking stability by passing the first regime and entering the second regime, but in general, the effects of these two risks on Banking stability have been declining and significant. According to the research results, managers and owners of banks are advised to be more careful and sensitive in providing facilities to customers. Because granting more facilities increases liquidity risk; Failure to return the facility on time also increases credit risk and consequently causes bank instability.

The shock of oil revenues, through changes in household expectations, leads to different effects on consumer spending in the durable and non-durable goods sector. Accordingly, the purpose of this article was to investigate the impact of oil revenues on private consumption expenditures of durable and non-durable goods in Iran. To test this relationship, two linear and nonlinear models in the period 1978-2020 were used. The model used in this study was of ARDL and NARDL methods. The results obtained in the estimated linear model showed that the intensity of the effect of disposable income on the consumption expenditure of durable and non-durable goods was equal to 0.61 and 0.68, respectively. Also, the effect of oil revenues on consumption expenditures of durable and non-durable goods in the nonlinear model was equal to 0.68 and 0.53, respectively. Moreover, the results obtained from the analysis of positive and negative shocks showed that the effect of positive shock of oil revenues on the consumption of durable and non-durable goods is 0.47 and 0.21, respectively, and the effect of negative shock of oil revenues on the consumption of goods Durable and non-durable were -0.35 and -0.14, in turn.

LARG supply chain is a combination of four supply chains: lean, agile, resilient and green. Each type of supply chain has its own requirements that may conflict with other supply chain requirements. The study seeks to identify the types of risks facing the LARG supply chain.

The present study has a positive nature in terms of philosophical foundations due to the use of quantitative methods. From the orientation point of view, the research has an applied approach and its methodology is multiple. The statistical population of the study is the experts of the supply chain of the automotive industry who are selected using a judgmental method for sampling. In this study, two methods of fuzzy Delphi and best-worst were used to analyze the data.

Initially, 41 risks were identified through literature and interviews with experts. In the following, these 41 risks are presented in the form of 13 main risks. Each of these risks is related to a specific supply chain. These risks were then screened by fuzzy Delphi and 25 risks were excluded. The remaining risks were prioritized using the BWM. The results showed that the risks of financing problems, production planning, changing customer demands and weakness of processes and recycling technology have the highest priority in each component of the LARG supply chain.

Diversifying financing tools, using new marketing methods and having a team approach in product development, paying attention to trends affecting future consumer behavior and examining changes in customers' buying behavior are the most important suggestions.