shahram moeeni

Inflation is one of the consequences and costs of economic populism. Since symbols of populism have appeared in Iran in recent decades,two goals have been pursued in this research. First, based on the literature on populism, economic populism and oil populism, 8 incides for oil populism have been proposed. The results of the calculations of the 8 incides for Iran during the period of 19978-2018 show that for the period of the ninth and tenth governments, the years 2005-2013, these 8 indicators have the highest values. To calculate a single index of oil populism, the geometric mean of 8 suggested indices was calculated during the mentioned period and it was found that this index has the highest value in 2009 compared to the length of the studied period. After clarifying this matter, the synthetic control method has been used to evaluate the populist policies in Iran on the inflation process during the period of 2005-2013. Iran was selected as the country under treatment or policy and 10 oil exporting country as the control group. The results of the research show that the real and simulated trends of Iran's inflation rate from 2005 onwards have a significant difference.. ‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬ ‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬‬

Iran has faced oil and banking sanctions since 2012. Following the sanctions and instability of the exchange rates, the Rial has sharply lost its value. Rising economic unrest has widened the gap between the official exchange rate and parallel market rate. However, the depreciation of Iran’s Rial does not show a uniform trend, and the decline path has been complicated. We know that sanctions against Iran have created new expectations, concerns, and attention. Google Trends has provided an analytic tool for measuring and monitoring people’s expectations based on their Internet search data. This study attempted to analyze and model the exchange rate trends in Iran using sanctions-related expectations extracted from Google Trends. The Google search index (GSI) of the sanctions demonstrated the agent’s expectations. Monthly data and the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) method were used for estimation. The results indicated a significant and positive impact of GSI on the unofficial exchange rate (UER) and just a positive impact on the real unofficial exchange rate (RUER). We can conclude that the effects of sanctions appear partly through changes in people’s expectations that can be extracted using GSI. Moreover, the difference in inflation showed a significant positive effect on the market exchange rate in Iran. Thus, an improvement in the expectations through reducing the international tensions and a perspective shift can strengthen the Rial exchange rate. Moreover, the policymaker can control the volatility and depreciation of the exchange rates in Iran by restricting the M2 growth through an appropriate long-run monetary policy.

In the urban housing and construction industry in Iran, research shows that the level of retrofitting is not optimal as a key component of the quality of buildings and a factor in the prevention of severe risks in natural disasters. This fact is reflected in the statistics of accidents and damages. For the first time, this study tries to explain this within the framework of the concept of hyperbolic discounting in behavioral economics, as well as the asymmetry of information between the developer and the consumer of housing. For this purpose, a theoretical behavioral model is developed using Liebsen's beta-delta discount function, to compare the behavior of citizens in the housing market with hyperbolic discount, with the optimal behavior. The results of the model show the sub-optimal demand for strengthening the building to prevent urban accidents. In this study, to correct and optimize the demand for retrofitting in the housing and urban construction industry, two mechanisms for paying subsidies and financing retrofitting have been presented and analyzed. The theoretical model shows that the financing strategy for optimizing the level of citizens' demand with hyperbolic discount, in the housing and construction industry, is effective and corrective with a good approximation. From this point of view, the financing mechanism is efficient in providing the optimal level of urban resilience in accordance with the risk of accidents in cities. The urban policy maker in coordination with the financial policy maker should make it possible to improve and optimize the behavior and choices of citizens by creating an advanced financing system in this area. Finally, the optimal rate for financing aimed at this goal is calculated by simulation and it is shown that this rate is very close to conventional rates in a wide range of cases and there is no need for subsidies.
JEL Classification: R21, R31, D11, D03

Crude oil is the most traded commodity in the world and its market has great influences on the global economy and macroeconomic activities. The present study seeks to analyze Iran's policy for oil production and export within the framework of an intra-OPEC bargaining game.  This analysis helps to review Iran’s oil policy and to propose an appropriate strategy in the new circumstances. The analysis of strategic relations shows that OPEC members can be divided into two groups of saver and spender countries. This categorization is due to economic, demographic, and petroleum differences among OPEC countries. OPEC members are different in terms of discount rates, impatience, and the urgent need for oil revenues too. The authors of this study have tried to model the relationship between oil quotas/production and demographic, economic, and oil variables based on the Intra-OPEC bargaining game. The model estimated for the period 2001-2019. The results indicated a strong and significant relationship between the ratio of oil production to oil reserves and demographic, economic, and oil variables. Bargaining between the two groups can largely determine the behaviors of OPEC and its members. The model estimation suggested that the oil market faces a tendency towards faster production and export in response to the shift in world oil market outlook. The results suggest that Iran's oil production capacity, the market share of Iran and recovery rates should be upgraded. Finally, the current role of Iran in OPEC does not fit into its economic needs and should be reviewed based on the above results. The study indicated that the inherent heterogeneity in OPEC still helps Iran plan to achieve its historic quota and position in OPEC.
JEL Classification: C07, D74, L13, L16.

The present study seeks to analyze Iran's oil extraction and export behavior within the framework of membership in OPEC as an important player in the oil market and to propose a policy for the post-sanction period. The analysis of strategic relations shows that oil economies differ in terms of the economic, demographic and petroleum components, and the need for oil revenues. Thus, these countries can be classified into two types of saver and expender, with different rates of depreciation. This typology and bargaining between the two groups largely determines the behavior of the players within OPEC. Accordingly, after designing an innovative model and estimating it during 2001-2017, the results indicate a strong and significant relationship between discount rate of oil countries with the previous components. In particular, oil market faces an increasing impatience and general tendency to accelerate oil exports in response to the emergence of shale oil and the change in oil market outlook. Accordingly, Iran's current role in OPEC seems nonoptimal, and economic, demographic and oil components indicate the need to adopt and enhance Iran's extraction capacity and recovery rates, while continuing membership in OPEC.

The upward growth of steel industry has led to an increase in demand for raw materials and the release of about 7% of global greenhouse gases (An et al., 2018; Griffin and Hammond, 2019). Blast furnace (BF) is the most essential section of a steel company (Liu et al., 2016). Costs of production in steel companies are contributive to the competitiveness of such plants (Zhang et al., 2011). Due to the shortage of domestic lump and concerns about CO2 emission, Iranian steel industry has encountered serious challenges of supplying ferrous raw materials and coke for blast furnaces, while the overproduced direct reduced iron (DRI) and the vast sources of domestic natural gas and pulverized coal have made it possible to replace coke with these sources of energy and using DRI as ferrous raw material in the blast furnaces. High differences in the price of coke with natural gas and pulverized coal along with big price gap between DRI and lump, the influence of replacing complexity on the cost of ferrous raw materials, coke, and energy consumption, BF productivity, technical constraints, and carbon dioxide emissions level are the main reasons for conducting this research.

A non-linear optimization model, extracted from thermodynamic equations, process relations, and mass and energy balances, has been applied in this study. This model can be applied as a decision support system for purchasing and supplying coke-energy, ferrous burden materials, and examining the effect of consuming different raw materials on the CO2 emission and evaluating the production profit.

Results indicated that this model can decrease CO2 emission and is highly effective in gaining company benefits. Based on the research sensitivity analysis it was found that despite the advantages of the model, as long as there are no tough restrictions on CO2 emission like in Japan and in the developed European countries, and there is subsidized domestic lump charging DRI as BF burden materials, it is not economic. As a result, it was concluded that available ferrous raw materials options for Iranian blast furnaces are only lump, sinter and pellet.

BF thermal reserve zone is assumed 1200k, which may vary from 1100 K up to 1300 K in practice; hot metal and slag temperatures are assumed fixed; chemical elements distribution is assumed fixed; and the state of gas rising from the bottom segment into the up segment of BF is ignored.

The proposed model was implemented in MATLAB and validated using the data of Esfahan Steel Company. A comparison between the model results and the experience-based results for supplying ferrous materials blending indicated a good compromise between the model and real situation, and it leads to an increase in production benefit around 16% for ferrous raw material and 19% for energy when using the model to purchase them. Another advantage of this model is the ability of prediction of raw materials which affects production parameters. In this regard, the effect of DRI on the CO2 emission, energy consumption and the benefit were studied and validated.

 Some of the innovation aspects of this study include:i) compared to available studies, optimal decision making on the supply and replacement of raw materials and energy, together with new constraints, were analyzed;ii) applying scrap and direct reduction iron (DRI) as environmental friendly ferrous raw materials for Iranian blast furnaces became possible, which contributed to a decrease in energy consumption;iii) the coke consumption rate in a BF as a function of the blending of ferrous burden materials and other production variables was assumed to change; andiv) for the first time in this study, the simultaneous consumption of carbon-bearing materials such as pulverized coal, natural gas, oil and coke were modeled.

Due to the low quality of domestic coking coal, as well as increased restrictions on international trade of importing coking coal from abroad, Iranian steel industry have been faced with the serious challenges of supplying coke as the major source of blast furnaces energy; on the other hand, the vast sources of domestic natural gas and pulverized coal have made it possible to replace coke with these sources of energy in the blast furnaces. High differences in price of coke with natural gas and pulverized coal, the influence of replacing complexity on the cost of ferrous raw materials, coke, and energy consumption, blast furnace productivity, technical constraints, and carbon dioxide emissions level are the main reasons for conducting this research. In this study, a nonlinear optimization model was developed to determine the profit of hot metal in blast furnace. Compared to previous studies, optimal decision making on the supply and replacement of raw materials and energy, along with new constraints were analyzed. The proposed model was implemented in MATLAB and validated by using data of Esfahan Steel Company. The results revealed that the research model can decrease coke consumption by 26% and is strongly effective in attaining economic benefits.

The Central Bank of Iran banned online currency trading through Forex brokers in November 2016. However, some Iranian speculators still trade in the online Forex market. Is this prohibition on Forex trading reasonable? According to reports, the majority of Forex day traders fail and leave the market within six months to a year. Some scholars attribute this failure to the changeable characteristics of the losing traders, including low startup capital, failure to manage risk, lack of discipline, and impatience. The purpose of this study was to explore why the majority of traders fail and to investigate the relationship between the Forex market features and the risk of failure. We developed a previous model to address this issue. Given the Forex market is a zero-sum game; the break-even point of the representative player was formulated. The model and simulation results indicated that the expected likelihood of loss is directly related to market features such as leverage, volatility, and the frequency of trading. The minimum rate of expected return, high volatile days, and spread were the other factors affecting the risk of loss. In conclusion, the study confirms the extremely high level of risk in Forex trading, which is inappropriate for the majority of individual investors. Moreover, policymakers need to consider the high risk of loss in this market, and some appropriate regulations seem reasonable on the Forex trading.

This article first analyzes the nature and legitimacy of the online Forex FX market transactions and then models the excessive return on Libor in this market. For this purpose, first, in the context of the Islamic thoughts, and using the concepts of game theory, it describes the bet transaction as a zero sum game, which always has a kind of principle or mechanism for the win and lose, And along with the collateral, the winner's reward or outcome can be certain or indeterminate. It is then claimed that an illusory transaction in this virtual financial market based on an advantage instrument and an automatic trade with the provision of the three top criteria can be regarded as a transaction from the perspective of the Islamic economy. Further, considering the Libor rate (LIBOR) as an indicator for the return on risk-free assets, we first attempt to develop a theoretical model for the likelihood of a surplus return on Libor in the FX Internet financial market at various leverage levels. Finally, based on the data on the exchange of two currency pairs of dollars / euros and dollars / pounds over a chosen period, it is shown that the likelihood of a yield equivalent to the Libor rate on the exchanges of this Internet financial market at high leverage levels despite the adoption of risk The exchanges are negligible. Accordingly, the participation of Iranian users in this market is both non-economic and exposed to the bet doubts.

The statistics show that the energy intensity in Iran is very unfavorable and its trend is alarming. There are two basic strategies to reduce energy intensity; the first strategy is to modify the relative prices of energy, especially through the energy taxation. The second strategy is to promote energy-saving technologies through research and development as a non-price strategy. The purpose of this study is simulation of a model for economics of Iran, for comparing the intensity of energy efficiency improvement through the energy taxation policy and the R&D subsidies policy. For this purpose a three-part general equilibrium model has been used. The period of implementation of the model has been considered as a 15-year time span since 2011. At the same time, the effect of policies analyzed on the labor demand as a production factor. The results show that a 40% energy tax improves energy efficiency by 52.74%, while a gentle R&D subsidy (20%), improve energy efficiency by 54.69%. So R&D subsidy policy for technical change is more effective than the tax policy in improving energy efficiency in Iran.

Housing is one of the basic needs of household and not-substitutable goods, in other hand some agents invest in housing for capital gain. The housing sector is also one of the most important sectors of the economy in all countries. The connectivity of housing market with other sectors of the economy has led to the fact that the housing market has been affected by oil-oriented macroeconomic change and, conversely the housing market has a significant impact on other sectors of the economy, due to its large influence on firm and households' decisions. The research models and analyzes the effect of key factors of  supply and demand on housing prices in the metropolitan areas of Tehran, Isfahan, Mashhad and Qom during the years of 2000-2015, using panel data method. In particular, it emphasizes the characteristics of an oil economy, the role of urban land limitation, expectations and the housing supply cycle. The results show a negative relationship between housing prices with land scarcity index and supply cycle. Also, the results indicate a positive and significant relationship between prices with expectations and liquidity growth. Ultimately, it is suggested and recommended three solutions for stabilization of the housing market: (i) planning a flexible urban land policy, (ii) the introduction of an anti-cyclical policy using tax and Bank loans (iii) commitment to a low growth rate for M2.

From the perspective of conventional neoclassical theories, consumers, corporations and economic factors are maximizer and optimizer.Therefore, without the need for interference of any external factor, they maximize the utility, profitability and, consequently, social welfare. But it is claimed that in Iran’s housing industry, the level of building retrofitting, especially the seismic resistance level, is not optimal, which means that the optimizing Agents spend Budget less than the optimal rate for this task. Accepting this claim, this paper tries to explain why this event is occurred emphasizing the framework of information economics and behavioral economics. This study first examines the cataclysmic events in the Iranian Housing industry, due to the lack of asymmetric information flow between housing producers and consumers, and provides solutions in the form of signaling, screening, and standardization of information. Secondly, the uncertainty effect of earthquake definite risk over retrofitting is analyzed. And, finally, based on some behavioral economics’ assumptions, we attempt to explain how to reduce demands for and costs of retrofitting proportional to the optimal level, and to develop theoretical solutions to the problem.

The main purpose of this study is to analyze the stability of OPEC, based on approach of Danielsen's sacrifice ratio and the impact of Iran economic sanctions. For this purpose two concepts called the reserves sacrifice ratio and the capacity sacrifice ratio on Danielsen model framework have been used for investigating the stability of OPEC. Relationship between sacrifice ratios and variables such as population, gross domestic product (GDP), production and oil production capacities of all members of OPEC have been reviewed and analyzed. Iran sanctions as an important factor influencing on amount of sacrifice ratios and totally OPEC stability have been studied. Period of study has been chosen from 2000 to 2014. The results of this study show that during the examined period, there is a meaningful and negative correlation between population and sacrifice ratios. There is a meaningful and positive correlation between oil reserves and sacrifice ratio too. OPEC countries with large oil reserves have a tendency to restrict extraction of crude oil reserves. There is a meaningful and positive correlation between Iran economic sanctions and sacrifice ratio. Iran's oil production capacity has been reduced due to sanctions against Iran and consequently sacrifice ratios of reserves and oil capacities have been increased. According to results of this research there is no evidence to suggest OPEC collapse. As a result of this study, OPEC still considered a stable organization.

Given the large contribution of government investment in the economy of Iran through spending on infrastructure budgets,resources distribution among the provinces was always one of the major problems in the economy. Distribution of budget among provinces theoriticalyis based on tactical and/or programmatic approach. In tactical approach, redistributive policyof the central government is based on political and electoral considerations, but in the programmatic approach, infrastructure investment distributes among provinces on the basis of economic criteria and the central government mainly focuses on the efficiency and equity indexes. This research estimates a modelfor infrastructure distribution including tactical and programmatic variables among the 28 provinces of Iran during the period of 1379-1390 as a panel data model,and then it can be determined what is the role of each political and economic criterion for budget allocation. Results show that tactical variables, efficiency and equity have positive effect on the infrastructure distribution

Uncertainty about the legitimacy of speculative transaction in economic and financial markets has created widespread controversial discussions among Islamic scholars. To recognize the nature of short – run speculative financial transactions from an Islamic viewpoint، through this paper، first، the relationship of these discussions with Keynes in one hand and Gharar، Gambling and Wager in the other hand were examined. Then، this research studied the nature of Keynesianism. At last، it was tried to understand the nature of short-run speculative transactions from an Islamic point of view conceptually and analytically. The results showed that all short-run financial transactions that strongly have the nature of zero or negative sum games are not illegal. These transactions have a betting nature via unusual normal risk. We have frequently experienced them in exchange markets. It also revealed that it is not obligatory for entering the betting activities based only on chance according to jurisprudential principles. Entering such activities with prediction and estimation does not make them eligible. It was finally concluded that disregarding the doubt about being Keynesian concerning the short-run speculative transactions، these transactions can be considered as the instances of Gharar and betting.

The foreign exchange market (FX market) accounts for 40% of the total volume of the world’s e-commerce by its own. Based on statistics, sometimes up to 90 per cent of the traders lose their total capital in this market just within six months to one year and leave this market. The probability of loss in the FX market can be estimated by probability theory. The present paper intends to demonstrate the loss in the FX market within the frameworks of some developed theoretical models using the data on the exchange rates for the currency pairs (EUR/ JPY, USD/ EUR) for the time interval of February-October in 2013. According to the results of simulation of the loss in the FX market, a number of factors including the leverage level, the volatility of the exchange rate for the currency pair, inflation rate, spread, the number of the transactions and the number of sudden stop transactions are directly related to the percentage of the loser traders so that any decrease in the above-mentioned factors is accompanied by a decrease in the percentage of the losers in the FX market. Furthermore, based on experimental results, the loss probability in this market is as much as 60% for the lower leverage levels. This value amounts to 99% for the higher leverage levels.

Entrepreneurship has been known as a method of identifying new opportunities, allocating resources in the situation of uncertainty and creating an organization to manage resources. This paper describes religious learning approaches in which entrepreneurship is beneficial to society and individuals through its economic advantages. The benefits are gained through innovation, productivity and new business opportunities promoted by the Islamic society. Hence, the Islamic economy widely recognizes and encourages the entrepreneurial businesses with a positive-sum game while non-entrepreneurial businesses with a zero-sum or negative-sum game are simultaneously rejected. Gambling, Gharar and Rehan are examples of such non-entrepreneurial and zero-sum businesses a indeed. Based on the findings of this study, the Islamic economy strongly encourages people towards economic activities that are entrepreneurial businesses and comprise positive-sum game. However, it discourages non-entrepreneurial activities which include uncertainty with zero-sum consequences and even uncertainty with a positive-sum game is somehow accepted.