فهرست مطالب yazdan naghdi

In recent years, the tourism industry, especially Islamic tourism, has received attention in many countries. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the simultaneous effect of economic variables on the income and number of tourists in 10 Muslim countries with the highest Islamic Tourism Index (GMTI: Global Muslim Travel Index:) during the years 2020-2015. For this purpose, the variables of the number of doctors, the number of places to stay, the quality of airlines, the Muslim tourism index, the global inflation, the political stability index and the exchange rate of countries have been used. The equation estimation method is apparently unrelated regression in panel data (Panel-SURE).The results of the estimation of the model indicate that the increase in the exchange rate, the increase in the number of doctors and the increase in the political stability of the countries have a positive and significant effect on the income from tourists and the number of tourists in Islamic countries. In addition, the findings of this study show that the quality of airlines and the number of accommodation places have a positive and significant effect on the Muslim tourism index.It is interesting that among the variables affecting the number of tourists and income from tourists entering Islamic countries, the variable of the number of doctors or the existence of better health services had the greatest impact on the number of tourists to these countries

The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of changes in the liquidity index of the shares of active companies in the Tehran Stock Exchange on the key financial indicators of those companies to explain the temporary exposure to liquidity risk. The liquidity of a stock sheet means the possibility of selling it quickly. It can be said that the faster and cheaper a share can be sold, the more liquid it is. Changes in the liquidity index of companies' shares can affect the financial performance of companies. In this study, the impact of stock liquidity on the financial indicators of companies active in the Tehran Stock Exchange during the years 1387-1400 was investigated in the form of a panel data model. The results of the estimation of the research models showed that the liquidity criterion has a significant effect on the amount of short-term debts of the companies at the rate of -1.15. Also, the liquidity criterion has a positive and significant effect on the amount of liquid assets of companies by 1.30. This measure of liquidity has a positive and significant effect on the amount of companies' assets by 1.53. The results of the research show that increasing the liquidity index of companies' shares can affect the short-term financial indicators of companies, including short-term liabilities and liquid assets.

One of the most important economic problems in Iran during the last few decades is the phenomenon of high and double-digit inflation. So, improving the conditions caused by high inflation has always been one of the important goals of the country's development programs. Achieving this goal requires the creation of a precise and targeted mechanism in the economic policy-making process. In its standard form, it includes forecasting, goal setting and policy analysis. The general purpose of this study is to predict the inflation rate using economic variables that affect it. In this research, the Bayesian averaging method is used to investigate the best estimation model that can predict the inflation in Iran. In this regard, the previous studies conducted in this field are first reviewed, and then the most important economic variables affecting the inflation are identified and used to predict the inflation rate.

Friedman believes that inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon. Monetarists believe that inflation comes from the disproportionate growth of nominal money supply. So, the higher this growth, the higher the inflation rate is. There is a direct and proportional relationship between money growth and inflation. According to this theory, changes in money supply have no effect on real variables such as production, employment and real wages; they only affect nominal variables such as prices and nominal wages proportionally. Monetarists consider the real growth of the economy in the long term to be independent of the change in the money supply and generally believe that this growth is determined by factors such as production capacity, increase in labor force due to population growth, advancement of technical knowledge and natural resources.In order to control or curb inflation, the influencing factors must be identified. The results of the studies on the factors that cause inflation are different or even inconsistent, because it is based on the researcher's specific attitude. In this article, to avoid falling into such a vortex, the Bayesian averaging method is used to predict inflation. The seasonal data of 1990-2022 have been used to predict the inflation rate in Iran.

Forecasting inflation is one of the most important but difficult issues in macroeconomics. Many different approaches have been proposed in this field. Perhaps the most popular of these approaches are those based on the Phillips curve. However, the general framework includes a dependent variable such as inflation (or change in inflation) and explanatory variables such as inflation breaks, unemployment rate and other predictive factors. Meanwhile, return and regression-based methods have been somewhat more successful.The results show that dynamic model averaging leads to significant improvements in forecasting compared to other approaches such as OLS, ARMA, and ARDL. Also, among the variables influencing inflation, the most influential for predicting the inflation rate relates to household consumption expenditure, unemployment rate, and workers' wage rate.

Conclusions and policy implications: 

The general purpose of this study was to predict the inflation rate using the economic variables that affect it. In this research, the Bayesian averaging method served to investigate the best estimation model that can predict the inflation in Iran. In this regard, the previous studies conducted in this field were first examined and then the most important economic variables affecting the inflation were identified and used to predict the inflation rate. For this purpose, the seasonal data of the variables during the period of 1990-2022 were used. In this research, the methods of ordinary least squares (OLS), auto regression moving average (ARMA), auto regression with distributed lag (ARDL), Bayesian dynamic averaging (DMA) and Lasso regression were used to predict the inflation and evaluate the prediction accuracy.Therefore, based on the results obtained in this research, attention should be paid to the behavioral economic parameters of households when choosing the optimal policy. Factors such as the increase in household food prices, the high increase in workers' wages, the increase in money supply, the increase in interest rates and the increase in residential rental rates have definitely caused the formation of inflationary expectations in the society and can cause instability in the future and make the inflation deviate from equilibrium. Thus the measures to take include controlling the household food market, controlling the housing market, reforming the wage pattern in the country, controlling the interest rates in banks, and using contractionary monetary policies. These help to control and reduce inflationary expectations among the people.

A bank obligation is a surplus amount on the amount of loans that is determined in Islamic banking for a borrower's fine if he or she is late in repayment. The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of late penalty on banks' profitability. For this purpose, 19999 customers of Mellat Bank branches in Mazandaran province who took loans from one of these branches between December 2012 and December 2018 have been studied. The number of branches studied in this study includes 68. The model used in this study is a probit model with one-way panel data. So that one dimension of the data is the financial and individual characteristics of the different persons taking loans from branches and the other dimension is specific to the branches and then the time is not considered in the pattern. The results of estimation indicate that there is a positive and significant relationship between tardiness penalty and profitability. Also, estimates indicate the increasing effect of income, deduction of salary, fractional payment, on the probability of banks' profitability. The results of this study are applicable in other banks and branches in order to obtain appropriate policies to increase banks' profitability. Also, the results of the studies indicate that this concept is consistent with Islamic teachings.

The purpose of this study is to estimate and calculate the liquidity of Tehran Stock Exchange in monthly intervals using a new method to be able to calculate and compare the liquidity of this market in different intervals with the least error. Liquidity of a stock means it is possible for a quick sale. In other word, whatever the shares could be sold faster and at lower costs, liquidity of shares is greater. So the study on liquidity has increased in recent years. In this study we estimated and compared the monthly stock liquidity in Tehran Stock Exchange. The results and liquidity calculation with excess return and Panel Data model by over 2 milions observation shows that from 1387 until the end of 1400 the liquidity level increased in the stock exchange, so that the least amount of liquidity is for the years 1388 and the highest liquidity amount is for the year 1398. According to our calculations, for every one billion rials buying in the market has been created about 0.01% of the excess return (additional cost). In other words, Due to the increased liquidity in the Tehran Stock Exchange, investment environment for investors has improved.

Given the rapid expansion of urban society and increasing energy consumption in developing countries, it is necessary to examine the relationship between urbanization and energy consumption. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between urbanization and the consumption of renewable and non-renewable energy in selected developing countries.

In this research, the effect of urbanization rate on renewable and non-renewable energy consumption will be investigated using the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) method and using two models. This study was conducted for 44 countries for the period 1996-2018. Estimation of the models has been done with Stata software. The research model was adopted from the linear Salim model.

According to the results of this study, every 10% increase in urbanization rate leads to a 1% increase in renewable energy consumption in developing countries. While every 10 percent increase in urbanization rates will increase the consumption of non-renewable energy in these countries by 4.2 percent. Therefore, in developing countries, the impact of urbanization rates on non-renewable energy consumption is greater than renewable energy.

The reason for more renewable energy consumption in developing countries is the greater dependence of heating and public and private transportation in developing countries on non-renewable energy, which must be changed gradually. This also indicates the low awareness and knowledge of the population about consumption patterns and also the low level of technology in these countries.

One big challenge every society has to deal with is the problem of road accidents and casualties after them. Many believe that this imposes huge economic costs on the society. Compared with developed countries, developing nations suffer from larger numbers of victims in this crisis that is why road accidents in these countries are known as one of the major causes of death. The aim of this study is to evaluate some economic factors which affect the shadow price of road accidents in Iran’s economy. This study analyzes the relationship between these factors and the shadow price in the form of ARDL  econometric methods during the period 1996-2018. According to the obtained results, it can be claimed that the GDP and shadow price of accidents and traffic correlate with each other. This correlation shows the shadow price in Iran increases along with economic growth, and after reaching a turning point, it begins to decline.  In other words, it could be said that the relation between the shadow price of road casualty and GDP in Iran seem to behave similarly to the inverted U-curve of Kuznets. Therefore, it was indicated that the Smeed’s law can be applied in Iran.

Incorrect economic policies can create a variety of crimes and endanger social security by creating income inequalities and social gaps. The purpose of this paper is to examine the economic factors affecting security by focusing on the components of inflation and unemployment.

This is a quantitative research. Also, the statistical population of this study will be Iranian economy. This paper presents an empirical model based on economic theories and the use of time series data during 1994-2018 and applying the ARDL model to compare the effects of inflation and unemployment on social security in Iran. In this study crime variable was used as indicator of lack of social security.

According to the estimated coefficients of inflation rate in the short run with a coefficient of 0.16 has a positive and significant effect on crime rate. Also, the short-term unemployment rate variable with a significant coefficient of 0.08 can affect social security. In the long run, inflation rates with a significant coefficient of 2.24 and unemployment rates with a significant coefficient of 0.18 influence crime rates as a result of social security.

it can be argued that social security has economic roots. According to the results of this study, inflation and unemployment in the short and long term have a positive and significant effect on crime rates in Iran. It should be noted that the long-term effects of both variables are greater than their short-term effects. On the other hand, according to the results of the research, inflation in the short run and long run will have a greater impact on crime rates (social security).

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of social capital on income inequality in Iran's provinces. For this purpose, the country's provincial data have been used during the years (2013-2019). In this study, we used the Panel GMM method to estimate the relationship between social capital and income inequality. The results suggest that increasing social capital can help improve income inequality in Iran. In simpler terms, increasing social capital can help make income distribution more equitable in Iran. According to the results of this study, any 10% increase in social capital in the country can reduce 3.9% of inequality in income distribution. It is interesting to know that among the variables of inflation, unemployment rate, tax revenue and social capital, the variable of social capital has had the greatest impact on the inequality of income distribution in the country. Therefore, it is recommended that governments make more efforts to increase social capital. To this end, governments must be considered to strengthen social capital, strengthen cultural and social infrastructure, promote participatory incentives, and increase the sense of patriotism and economic well-being of the people.

Vajholtezam-e-Banki is the amount of money more than the amount of the loan which is defined in Islamic Banking as the fine for defaulting on a loan payment. The purpose of this study is to analyze the effect of delay fine on the probability of delay in repayment of loans. In order to do so, 19999 costumer in Melat Bank’s branches in the Mazandaran province between 2012 and 2018 were studied. The number of branches amounts to 68. The model devised in this study is a one way Panel – Probit. One dimension of the data will be the individuals and the other dimension will be the branches and the time dimension is not included in the model. The results suggest that there is a significant negative relationship between the fine and delay in repayment. Also, the estimations suggest the decreasing effect of income, salary reduction, dividend of payments, and history of delay on repayment. The results of this study are suitable to be devised as a policy complement in other banks and branches in order to take appropriate policy measures for the purpose of decreasing delay in repayment of loans. Also, the findings of the study indicate that this banking concept is in line with Islamic teachings.

The aim of this study is to estimate and calculate the optimal interest rate during the period 1993-2016 in order to achieve an optimal interest rate and a describe economic growth using the optimal control theory. Taking into account Iran’s economic, social and cultural planning, its economic growth rate is considered 6%, and the inflation targeting 10% in the present research. The results show that in order to achieve the describe economic growth rate of 6% in a year and the inflation targeting rate of 10%, the optimal interest rate needs to be 5.2%. By notice that the bank average interest rate for Iran has been 14.3% in the same period, it is suggested that bank interest rate decreases. This matter will increase investment and ultimately expand production and economic growth in the Iranian economy.

In current research, it is estimated the cost function of the refah bank along with the production inputs share The purpose of this paper was to estimate the cost function and the inputs share function of the Refah Bank using 1990-2010 data, and to calculate own and cross price elasticities of inputs. The results show that inputs of the Refah Bank are substitutes for each other and the cross elasticity of physical capital and manpower exceeds that of manpower and physical capital. The results also reveal that Refah Bank enjoys increasing return in expanding its activities.

In this paper, we attempted to measure and compare the core inflation through utilizing the trimmed mean and omission methods for the period of (1978-2012). Using the core inflation as targeted inflation in monetary policy will increase its efficiency, because the core inflation could separate the sustained inflation from the temporary one. The results of this research prima facie indicate that the most appropriate method for measuring the core inflation in Iranian economy is Trimmed Mean method. (it is 80% of median value). We can also, measure the core inflation through omission method, if we exclude certain items i.e. food, tobacco and education from our calculations. On the other hand, we have found that there is a long term relation between foreign exchange rate and core inflation, and also in measuring the core inflation, we cannot omit those groups of goods and services which are more prone to impact of exchange rate and are already included in calculation of consumer price index, because Iran is importer of intermediate goods, and foreign exchange rate will affect on price of manufacturing goods. Thus, we conclude that the exchange rate and housing prices are both permanent components of core inflation measurement and as a result should not be omitted from consumer price index, pro rata.

Housing sector situation enhances economic booms and stagnations and the sector is deeply affected by financial problems. The research is analyzed the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on housing investment in Iran. Private investment for construction of new housing units in the urban areas is used as the indicator for housing investment. Using the data for a period of 1992 to 2013, the paper shows a negative and significant relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and housing investment. Any increase in foreign exchange fluctuations leads the housing investors away from construction sector and increases their preference for investment in foreign exchange market. A possible cause of such movement may be an expectation of future recession in housing sector and an expectation of higher return in the foreign exchange market.

This paper tests monetary view of inflation in Iranian economy by a monetary approach within P* model using OLS and ARDL techniques during 1358-1387 (1979-2008). It should be noted that only the standard P* model (domestic price gap) is tested in this study. Regarding that domestic price gap consists of output and velocity gaps, the Hedrick – Prescott filter method is used to estimate the potential production level and the velocity of balanced money. Estimation results of various models show that the standard P* model (domestic price gap), is not able to explain and forecast inflation in Iranian economy and implies that the quantity theory of money is not correct in Iranian economy. Therefore, we investigated monetary theory of inflation using alternative variables including volume of liquidity, real gross domestic product (GDP), informal exchange rate, import price index with using ARDL method. Results show that a 10% growth of liquidity leads to increase general prices by 4.6%. Thus, the monetary hypothesis of inflation is partially confirmed, however concerning that relationship between inflation and liquidity volume is not unique, and other factors affect inflation in Iran, therefore to curb Iranian inflation we cannot adopt only monetary policy as an effective tool.

Industries revenues are needed for their survival. Industry today has a great soccer turnover. Football clubs are the most important sector of the industry survival depends on the survival of football clubs and they are persistent. The main objectives of the Club Managers earn lots of money supply and the beginning Competitions Club competitions are benefits. The main objective of this paper is the economic factors affecting earnings in selected clubs from season to season 4-2003 11-2010 studied and is estimated by Panel Data methods. The results show that the revenue of the media player, the greatest impact on the income of football clubs and the club is also ranked in the annual rankings of the International Federation of History and Statistics has no Impact on revenue club in the same year.

This article analyzes the inter-relationship between inflation and sect oral production by vector auto regression (VAR) and vector error correction (VEC) models. In this research, we use the data extracted between years 1974-2005.The results show that the inflation is not a mere monetary phenomenon in Iran and its chronicity is related to real variables (production and sect oral production).Also, based on the results of this research, the relation between inflation and production is a long term issue. While, this relation (between sect oral production and inflation) in services sector is shorter run than agriculture and industry. Besides, in the short run, based on the results of variance decomposition, the contribution of agriculture sector in inflation is more than services and the latter is more than industry. Therefore, the government can regulate more the prices of agricultural and services productions in order to control the inflation. On the other hand, results of estimated VAR model indicate that services sector is more sensitive to increase in inflation rather than other sectors. Such that as inflation increases, the production of services sector increases more than other sectors and by increase in production of services sector, inflation reduces more rapidly in relation to other sectors. Also, the application of estimated models in policy making is that for controlling the inflation in Iran one can not rely only on monetary policies and in long run the real sector of economy (production) should be taken into account.

There are an extensive research work done on inflation and its causes both in developing and developed countries. There exists a unique understanding about the concept of inflation but not a general agreement on its causes amongst economists. In this study, data relating to the period 1353-1384 have been used. To examine the effects of production in industrial, agricultural and services sectors on inflation, econometric methods are utilized, i.e., Autoregressive Distribution Lags (ARDL) and Vector Error Correction (VEC). The results following ARDL imply that each 10 per cent increase in the rate of liquidity induces 6.4 per cent increase in the general price level. Moreover, based on VEC method, it is shown that the hypothesis of monetary inflation can not be accepted in Iranian economy. The ARDL model also implies that the increase in production would lead to a decrease in inflation in Iranian economy as compared to the increase in production of industrial sector. In other words, it can be argued that to control the inflation in Iranian economy it is necessary for the Government to perform higher guidance and regulatory role in her economic policies towards expanding production services and agricultural sectors.