جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « واگرایی » در نشریات گروه « علوم سیاسی »

After the Second World War, many thinkers and politicians, due to the heavy costs caused by the war, sought to provide a solution with the aim of preventing the recurrence of such incidents, as a result of which many experts shifted from national loyalties to transnational loyalties and formed efficient transnational institutions. suggested as a solution. However, the OPEC organization has faced many challenges in achieving its goals during more than six decades of activity and has stopped in the early stages of convergence.Using the qualitative method and the application of the theory of action, this research tries to address the basic question of what are the most important obstacles in the path of convergence in the OPEC organization and what solutions are envisioned in order to remove the said obstacles? The findings of the research confirm the fact that challenges such as heterogeneity in the political, legal and ideological structure of the member countries, heterogeneity in the oil reserves and population of the members, arbitrary actions outside the rules of OPEC and so on.Among the causes of OPEC's failure, assuming the desire to strengthen convergence among OPEC members, there are things such as creating structural changes in the OPEC organization's statutes, removing tension and political and ideological differences among members, and establishing academic centers focusing on the expansion of the oil industry among members. OPEC, increasing economic cooperation and moving towards the establishment of an OPEC bank with a currency unit independent of the dollar, increasing the cooperation of the members of the organization in important matters such as insurance, transportation and security of oil transmission lines by establishing organizations such as the OPEC Insurance Organization, the transnational oil tanker company And. It is recommended to remove the existing obstacles

The war between Russia and Ukraine is one of the most serious crises that the European Union has faced after World War II. This war has affected all political, economic, social and security sectors of this union. As a buffer country with a geopolitical and geostrategic position between three powers, namely the European Union, Russia and the United States, Ukraine is of great importance and any action and movement requires the sensitivity of these three powers and their mutual reactions. According to John Mearsheimer, the moves made by the United States to expand NATO to the east are the main reason for Russia's attack on Ukraine. This war, with the asymmetric pressure of the crisis on the member states of this union, has increased the platform for the politicization of national identities and the combination of these two factors, along with the low competence of transnational institutions, has caused differences in the views of European countries to reach a common policy. 

Research question: 

The main question of this article is what were the consequences of the Ukrainian war crisis on the European Union?

Methodology and theoretical framework: 

The current research has used the method of future research and scenario writing. Scenario writing is one of the basic techniques of future research method that focuses on creating and reconstructing future events and trends based on the collected evidence, data and information. In scenario-based planning, several distinct scenarios must be prepared in order to cover a wide range of different futures and obtain a reliable approximation of future trends and realities. The existing limitations on the number of scenarios are mostly due to the perceptual, analytical and cognitive limitations of humans and not the limitations related to the complexities of the real world. Scenarios always contain some contents that challenges our worldview and mental structure, otherwise we will remain locked in the same old mental structure and have to face its unfortunate consequences.

This invasion is considered to be the largest conventional military attack on European soil since World War II and it is referred to as the new crisis of the European Union. This crisis has revealed most of the realities and weaknesses of this union in political, economic, social and security fields. The European Union is a united body in the form of economic-political regionalism and multi-level governance consisting of 27 European countries. The initiators of the European Union integration plan claimed that the national sovereignty of the governments would be replaced by collective decision-making and the independent role of the Parliament, the Commission and other EU institutions. In the past decades, this union has faced crises such as economic crisis, debt, immigration, Brexit, Corona, the discussion of the limits of the powers, competences of the European Union and its institutions towards the member states has been one of the basic issues.Although according to some experts, the emergence of challenges and crises helps to transform and strengthen the unity in this union, but the war in Ukraine and its political, economic, security and social consequences, not only did not help this process, but also highlighted the role of the state over national differences and led to the divergence of the European Union. The findings of the research indicate that the war between Russia and Ukraine and its consequences, the imposition of Western economic sanctions against Russia, have stopped the export of oil and gas to Europe and reduced the economic growth of the member countries and due to the increase in energy prices and the inability to provide energy resources and the creation of a gap between the members of this union in the way of dealing with Russia, it has led to public protests. In addition, the war in Ukraine and its consequences have changed the swing of the pendulum of this union towards statists (against transnationalists) and led to the divergence of this union.

The findings of this article are that the crisis of the war in Ukraine has had many consequences on the European Union which has led to the divergence of this institution and as a result, the reduction of its power in the international system. This problem was caused by the deepening of the differences within this union, the vacuum of powerful leadership and the different positions of the member states after the war.In this article, an attempt has been made to investigate the causes and factors of the war in Ukraine by using the scenario writing method in order to examine the consequences of the Ukraine crisis in creating differences between the members of the European Union and weakening the position of this institution in the international scene. The Ukraine crisis has increased the differences among the EU member states with the three sides of asymmetric distribution of the crisis pressure, the politicization of national identities and the low competence of European Union institutions. This crisis has increased the differences between the member states of the Union so that the crisis management policy has been reduced from the transnational level to the national level and this issue is defined as divergence. In fact, the emergence of factors such as the emergence of monopolist nationalism, the expansion of far-right political parties or TAN (Traditional-Authoritarian-Nationalist), war and the trend towards geopolitics have challenged the process of European integration. This retreat in the process of convergence and as a result divergence at the level of the European Union has brought different scenarios and consequences. The possible future scenario of the European Union is its transformation into a confederation group with veto power for each country and one of the most important consequences is the change of the European center of gravity, the destruction of the idea of independent European defense, the dominance of the United States in the Trans-Atlantic relations and the weakening of the position of the European Union in the game of power and global leadership.

Undoubtedly, the Arab unrest in 2010, which started in Tunisia and spread to other Arab states in a short time, is considered a turning point in the political history of Arab countries in the Middle East and North Africa. These measures, which started with the overthrow of some Arab countries such as Tunisia and Egypt, gradually led to civil wars, proxy battles of powerful countries, and even the withdrawal of troops from neighboring countries by some governments, with the extensive and diverse interference of other regional and extra-regional countries. The process of these changes and the resulting results have always been more important for the countries of the southern border of the Persian Gulf, or in more appropriate terms, the governments of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, which include Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. Because the commonalities and similarities in various political, economic, and cultural fields among the member states of the Council and the fear of unrest spreading within their political borders have caused the above countries to take measures to prevent such a thing. In the meantime, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, due to various reasons such as size, population, foreign exchange earnings, inherent characteristics of leaders, and regional competition, seek their desired changes in the context of regional trends more than others. These two countries, in addition to the deep commonalities and sense of brotherhood they have among themselves, are always involved in competition with each other for various reasons, such as maintaining the balance of power, especially on the part of the UAE, the authoritarian leadership of both countries, and territorial disputes left over from the colonial era. includes It is from this point of view that the convergence and divergence between these two countries is important in the shadow of the new developments in the Middle East region.Methodology is always considered a function of the theory used in scientific and research works, on this basis and with the theory used in this work, an attempt will be made to explain the methodology of the present writing to the reader. The category of security is one of the fields of study that, despite a long history for mankind, a significant period has not passed since its systematization as an academic discipline. In this work, according to the use of Stephen Walt's threat balance theory and the need-to-know concepts such as power, size, population, economic capabilities, as well as geography, offensive capabilities and hostile intentions, the methodology of this article is a combination of methods Quantitative and qualitative crosswise. In other words, some areas such as the economy area can be analyzed through quantitative methods of contract analysis and based on this, the security and competitive status of actors can be analyzed. While in some other areas such as social security, and freedom of expression, intentions and behavioral characteristics of leaders cannot be investigated simply and based on quantitative methods; In this case, using the qualitative method and paying attention to the intentions of the actors is more prominent. Considering the political characteristics of the governments of Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the simultaneous use of quantitative and qualitative methods leads the readers of the present work to a correct understanding of the relations between these two actors.According to the studies conducted on the intergovernmental relations between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, the existence of internal differences between the above countries regarding various regional issues clearly shows that these governments, despite all the political, economic, and cultural commonalities, at the same time in dealing with the issues and The problems that arise in the field of foreign policy have national and sometimes personal implications, which is why they sometimes try to take parallel and even opposing actions. It is worth noting that these measures appear and appear more from the side of the smaller country, the United Arab Emirates, in front of the Saudi government, because Saudi Arabia always considers itself the leader of the Arab countries and expects support from other members of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council. ; It was for this reason that he reacted militarily to the changes in Bahrain and economically to Qatar to prove to everyone that he is not indifferent to the developments in the Arab countries around him, especially the governments of the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, and that his interference in He considers their affairs as a natural matter and a reserved right for himself. In the meantime, according to the approach they have drawn for themselves in the field of foreign politics, the Emirati rulers are always trying to maintain their independence and balance of power against this larger government while accompanying the Saudi government in various regional issues, in addition to protecting themselves from The flames of anger of the Al Saud rulers also promote their national and family interests, which is evident in the UAE's behavior in Yemen and diplomatic relations with Iran and Syria.The new order of West Asia, which is the result of the great changes caused by the Arab events of 2010, showed more than ever the continuity and intertwining of the Arab states of the region, especially the states of the Persian Gulf. These governments, which have come together in the framework of a regional organization such as the Persian Gulf Cooperation Council, led by Saudi Arabia and with the support of the other pillar of the council, the United Arab Emirates, are sensitive to the spread of waves of Arab unrest to the territories under their rule and any movement in this direction They have suffocated sperm. This cooperation, which has been established over the years and especially between Saudi Arabia and the UAE, is more than anything due to the sharing of their broad interests in regional dimensions. Regardless of the inherent characteristics of their ambitious leaders, both the Saudi and UAE governments have converged on various issues such as the unrest in Bahrain, the war in Syria, and the battle in Yemen due to the sense of competitiveness with each other and the need to balance power against Iran. However, during this period, they have diverged and split, especially concerning the manner of diplomatic relations with Iran and Bashar Assad's government in Syria, as well as how to manage the war in Yemen. Of course, it should be noted that the role of the United Arab Emirates in the emergence of divergence with the Saudi government is more colorful because maintaining the balance between the two powerful countries of Iran and Arabia on both sides of the Persian Gulf, as well as maintaining independence and achieving special political-economic interests in the pursuit of regional issues It is of special importance for the Bin Zaid family in the UAE.

European Integration Process have always been suspected in various countries of the Green Continent. Although Euroscepticism, which dates back to a period of suspicion, reluctance, and skepticism about these Processes, peaked and emerged with the election, the process of negative convergence with the EU and other arrangements in other societies and states also existed. Perhaps the most striking of these centrifugal tendencies can be traced to northern Europe and the Nordic region. The question that arises here is how the Eurosceptic flow in the Nordic basin is formulated. In response to the existence of Eurosceptic tendencies at the three levels of social system, political system and party system, in the Nordics in general and in Norway, Iceland, Sweden, Denmark and Finland, the formation of opposing currents towards the convergence process. Europe is being considered. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method and library type in terms of data collection.

The subject is to identify and explain the effective factors in the policies of the Iranian diplomatic system in the disputes between them.The researcher intends to answer the question that what are the effective factors in the strategies of the Iranian diplomatic towards Saudi and how can it be evaluated.The researcher mainly tries to investigate the key factors causing tension from two perspectives,referring to documents and interviewing experts in this field, i.e. political science, in order to achieve key indicators with the help of phenomenological method.This research emphasizes on two main references to understand the tension factors.First:the paradigm governing the country's political behavior and diplomacy and second:the spatial behavior and pattern of Saudi political thinking in the region.The research method in this research is explanatory,with the help of Claizi's method,to explain and interpret the subject.At the same time,it is trying to identify and classify the main drivers of tension with the help of the Mic-Mac model.Based on the research problem,this hypothesis comes to mind that the effective factors in Iran's diplomatic system in categories such as Iran's regional influence,influence on the resistance front Saudi's view of Iran can be explained and evaluated through the lens of America.The results of the research showed that in relation to the effective factors in the policy-making of the diplomatic system in the occurrence of differences between them,not only the political behavior of Iran,but also the occurrence of regional and global events and the ruling political thinking,especially on the part of Saudi have't been unaffected.

Economic and political convergence at the level of the region and neighbors can be seen as a new nature of relations between countries after the Cold War. This is because some countries no longer have the desire to continue being dependent on the Western or Eastern bloc and were looking for a new experience in cooperation and closeness with each other. Iran and India were not exempt from this view. India's geopolitical position and the lack of political and economic convergence with some of its close neighbors can be seen as a suitable situation for other countries such as Iran. Therefore, this research with a descriptive analytical method and using reliable library and internet sources seeks to answer the question, what role can India play in economic convergence with Iran from a geopolitical perspective? The results of the research indicate that three factors have caused the economic convergence of Iran and India, which are: India's divergence with China (border disputes and access to nuclear weapons), India's divergence with Pakistan (Kashmir conflict, river water issue, conflict Kargil and the conflict in Siyajn) and the special situation of Iran and Chabahar port and the non-intervention of the United States of America.

Arab countries have tried to deal with the formation of the Zionist regime through four wars, and in this regard, several resolutions and peace plans have been issued by the United Nations and some governments to end this conflict, but In the end, the failure of the Arabs in front of Israel to the extent that even a part of the land of the Arab countries was occupied by the Zionist regime caused the Arab countries to give up their confrontational position with Israel and one after the other try to normalize their relations with Israel. Based on this, the main question of the current research has been raised as follows: What effect have the new developments in Arab-Israeli relations had on the security of the Islamic Republic of Iran from an ontological point of view? This hypothesis has been proposed that the new developments in Arab-Israeli relations by reducing the conditions of uncertainty, due to the reproduction of the previous self-understanding and the deepening of the constant and continuous understanding of the Islamic Republic of Iran's identity, priorities, goals and interests, will lead to the improvement of security. It has been systematized. The findings show that after the Islamic Revolution, the Islamic Republic of Iran saw the relations between Arabs and Israel in conflict with its identity and has always tried to create divergence in the relations between Arabs and Israel.

For about a century, the relationship between the two big Muslim neighbors in the Middle East has always had ups and downs and a trend of distance and closeness in the relations between them. Before the victory of the Iranian revolution, these two countries had a conflict with a lower slope, and after the revolution, they had a conflict with a steep slope and were in opposition to each other and in the last decade, they have experienced a complete distance and disconnection. Therefore, the main question of this research is that which approaches of interaction or confrontation can be effective in line with the national interests of the two countries? In fact, we examine and analyze the ways to achieve a peaceful and stable coexistence between the two countries by identifying their proximity and distance factors. However, the main factors of conflict in their one-hundred-year-old relationship have been caused by ideological differences and mutual destruction.

In this article, we discuss the reduction of ethnic or tribal identity to tribal identity or tribalism. The process of tribalization of Ili identities indicates the desire of national, ethnic and religious macroidentities to be fragmented. The authors of this article first discussed the issues of identity, then they examine the two approaches of ethnic divergence and convergence with an emphasis on the Bakhtiari tribe. The event of Ili's convergence occurs when an external stimulus confronts the fullfledged identity of Ili, in which case, the process of Ili's unity is formed against this external stimulus. On the other hand, the situation of divergence occurs when internal conflicts are formed as a result of social political competition. In this case, the powerful tribal agents, by re-reading local cultural and identity resources and re-emerging old elements and symbols, by holding different carnivals and rituals, historiography, genealogy and genealogy, tried to authenticate the new identity and political competitions in They form the channels of these conflicts or activism. The present article tries to express the hypothesis that as a result of political competition, ethnic identities diverged and the desire for tribalism is becoming stronger among the Ili clan identities. The theoretical framework of this article is based on the sociology of knowledge, and the strategic conclusion of the article is based on providing strategies to prevent the identity gap in Iranian ethnic groups.

Indo-Pacific is the most dynamic and diverse region in the world. The region has become the major hub of world politics and economy. During the last decade, global attention to the region has increased strategically and economically. The rise of China as a great power and its incising influence has been a challenge for the hegemony of the United States at the level of the international system and India at the regional level. The United States is India's most comprehensive strategic partner. Both countries have complementary strategic interests; America wants to maintain its economic and military hegemony in the world, and India, in turn, seeks to expand security relations with the United States in order to facilitate the country's transformation into a regional power in the future. The main question of the article is, what is the United States and India’s approach towards the Indo-Pacific region? The hypothesis of the article is that India has a "leading" or major role in the United States’ Indo-Pacific strategy, but this does not mean a military and security alliance between the two countries, because India is trying to maintain its strategic autonomy in regional issues. The two countries have different approaches in the geographical definition of the region, the type of confrontation with the rise of China and the centrality of ASEAN in the region. This research has been prepared with an analytical approach and using the security strategies of the two countries.

The Islamic Republic of Iran has always wanted peace, stability and tranquility in the region, and the general policies of the system have also expressed the creation of an indigenous regional security structure, so that this structure becomes fully compatible with the country. The Islamic Republic of Iran, in order to strengthen its strategic influence and establish stable relations with the countries of the world, and in order to strengthen its geopolitical structure and position, is obliged to establish relations with other peripheral and cross-border countries. The presence of trans-regional countries and enemies of the Islamic Republic of Iran, including the United States and the occupying regime in Jerusalem, has threatened the security and national interests of the Islamic Republic of Iran and prevented convergence between the countries of the region. The Islamic Republic of Iran can provide the ground for the formation of a regional society by relying on historical, cultural and religious commonalities and strengthening economic capacities. The theoretical framework of the research is based on the theory of international relations and models of defense-security relations, participatory security model and regional convergence and cooperation.

Second to China, Iran has the most number of neighboring countries in the world; despite the fact, in the recent years, having the lowest levels of economic interaction with its neighboring countries, Iran has lost this advantage under the heavy shadow and legacy of using a discourse of divergence in its relationships with most of them. The single-dimensional nature of the post-revolution foreign policy of Iran in its neighborhood policy is criticized as resulting in more failures and hopelessness in its cross-border relationships, and, more importantly, making the development of the country out of reach. The main question of the present research is that, “in the sensitive circumstances of today, what a universal approach to Iran´s neighborhood policy can be developed. By assuming that on the geographical levels of foreign policy, it is of necessity to reconstruct foreign policy by choosing from four geographical levels (neighborhood, regional, cross-regional, and international), the present research attempted to recreate the concepts of neighborhood policy. The theoretical framework of the research was developed by the researcher based on the concepts in neighborhood policy including geographical and political concepts.Relying on David's Strategic Management, the present research is based on the method of step by.

There were signs of expanding Iran-Ukraine relations and, consequently, cooperation between the two countries; But on the other hand, the Islamic Republic of Iran has wider relations with Russia. Thus, despite this war (2022), expansion and interaction with Ukraine could affect Iran-Russia relations. Therefore, the present study, assuming the expansion and desire to improve bilateral relations between Iran and Ukraine, as well as Russia's sensitivities in this regard, seeks to answer these two questions: " What effect does the expansion of Iran-Ukraine relations have on Iran's relations with Russia? " And " What is Ukraine's goal in expanding ties with Iran ? " Are. The method of answering these questions is descriptive-analytical. Findings show that Iran should try to make the most of the opportunity close to the EU and create opportunities in the field of energy security, including the transfer of gas to Europe, while relying on the existing socio-political realities in Ukraine. It must adjust to Ukraine in such a way that it does not become embroiled in tensions between the parties involved in the region outside the " near outside " of Russia. Because the continuation of relations with Russia is a " privileg" against the West.

The overall economic framework for building Greater Eurasia, including Russia, China, and Central Asia, is more closely linked to the Chinese One Belt One Road Initiative and the Cooperation Agreement between the project and the Eurasian Economic Union. Along with traditional Russian influence, China's growing growth is strongly felt in Central Asia and is a major factor in shaping the new structure of the Greater Eurasian regions. The geopolitical situation in the convergence of Central Asian countries makes Russia and China the only options available to them. Political and military convergence with Russia in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, as well as economic convergence with Russia in the Eurasian Economic Union, are key elements. The present article uses a descriptive-analytical method and within the framework of the concept of multidimensional foreign policy with the aim of providing a systematic analysis of the interests of Central Asian countries involved in the current approach of Russia and China. How do Russia and China play a role? The research hypothesis is that the countries of Central Asia seek to balance the growing influence of Russia and China in the Greater Eurasia Plan by adopting a " Multi -vector foreign policy". The findings show that Central Asian countries are forced to converge with China and Russia due to geopolitical determinism, but on the other hand, in order to be dominated in this process, they have developed relations with the West and the Islamic world.

Strategic culture as a cohesive system of symbols that creates long-term and pervasive strategic preferences through the formulation of concepts and maps and the effectiveness of military forces in political affairs between states. In view of this hypothesis, the authors of the present work seek to answer the fundamental question of how China's strategic culture appendages build constructive convergent and divergent policies in the East Asian country by studying and evaluating Chinese criteria, sources, and documents related to the category of strategic culture. Has it affected Iran?

An examination of the foreign policy of Iran and Pakistan shows that several factors have been effective in shaping, strengthening or weakening relations between the two countries. Therefore, it can be said that after Pakistan's independence from India in 1947, the relations between the two countries have had many ups and downs, which in this study tries to analyze these relations after the victory of the Islamic Revolution of Iran in 1979. The question that this study seeks to answer is what are the most important factors of convergence and divergence between Iran and Pakistan from 1979 to 2021? The hypothesis of the article is that cooperation in the field of security, energy and economy, along with its presence in regional organizations such as ECO, D-8, has led to convergence. The United States has reduced cooperation between the two countries. Findings show that the effect of divergence over convergence on Iran-Pakistan relations has been greater.

One of the regions prone to convergence is the Islamic world, which stretches from Southeast Asia to West Africa and covers more than fifty countries, which, if realized, could play a key role in empowering Muslims. One of the factors creating convergence between Islamic countries is the economy, which is both due to the rich and diverse economic potential of the Islamic world and a necessity for the internal development of these countries. But despite the mentioned potential and necessity, we are witnessing the economic divergence of Islamic countries and as a result of the failure of the convergence of the Islamic world, which necessitates the identification of the main causes and factors of economic divergence of Islamic countries. Therefore, the main purpose of this article, using a descriptive-analytical method and based on the theoretical framework of convergence, is to answer the question that the economy as a fundamental factor in the relations between countries, what effect on the convergence of the Islamic world? The findings of the article show that the economic divergence of Islamic countries is one of the basic factors in preventing the formation of convergence in the Islamic world.

From the past until now, the function of human social responsibility has been considered and studied by thinkers and policy makers and it has been especially significant and vital in Islamic states. Due to the importance of human responsibility in building a favorable and constructive society, this study has conducted a comparative study on the discourse of moderationism and radical discourse on human social responsibility. A moderate attitude towards social phenomena provides the ground for social convergence and a radical attitude towards them, feeds a lack of convergence in society. For this reason, the author believes that the function of human social responsibility in these two discourses has a different output. Thus, human being has historically been one of the three focal elements of history, the continuation of war, social tensions or peace and comfort. This study seeks to answer the question: "What role does the idea of ​​moderationism play in deepening human social responsibility compared to radical discourse?" The main purpose of this article is to spread the discourse of moderationism in society in order to reconstruct human responsibility in social areas. In the present study, the library method has been used for data analysis; In other words, the method of this research is diachronic and interdisciplinary. The finding of this study is the expansion of social responsibility in the development of ideas of moderationism and emphasizes that the idea of ​​moderationism is effective in social thinking and prevents social divergence.

The relationship between the United States and the European Union has a long history. In the present study, which is forward-looking in terms of research design, and since the purpose of the research is to find the answer to the problem and the main challenge, this research is classified as a result-oriented research, so after performing the necessary analysis on The positions of European and American officials and politicians and content analysis, in Section 2, are presented as 5 scenarios on the convergence and divergence of the two great powers, namely the United States and the European Union, towards Iran by 2030 The two general scenarios are: Iran: Sanctions, Critical and Constructive Talks (Two Scenarios), Iran Nuclear Program: Borjam Agreement (Three Scenarios) The results of this study show that in relation to alignment or The heterogeneity of the EU-US relationship There are two central perspectives. Culture-oriented perspective and policy-oriented perspective. The results also show that the indicators of convergence and divergence in the relationship between the EU and the US government depend on their area of ​​interest. In areas with shared and parallel interests, we see more convergence and cooperation, and in areas with conflicting interests, we see more divergence and competition. The results of this study showed that possible scenarios in different dual sectors tend to the scenario of competition and continuation of the current situation as a two-pronged approach to Iran until 2030.Keywords: USA, Convergence, Divergence, European Union, Iran

Geographical regions have moved toward convergence and cooperation based on common mental concepts and with regard to common structures and functions, and have been able to move their region toward sustainable development and security. One of the sensitive and strategic areas in the equations of the structure of the power pyramid of the Islamic world. Despite the mental and objective similarities in the Islamic world to create a coherent regional organization based on building power, this region is considered one of the most tense regions in the world. The purpose of this research is to examine how the Islamic world can be imagined under the influence of domestic and international conditions in the next decade. In this research, Peter Schwartz's future research approach and scenario writing method have been used. The findings of the research have shown that by recognizing multiple drivers in objective and subjective dimensions on a regional and global scale, two uncertainties regarding the future of power building in the Islamic world in the next decade were identified, which include increasing or decreasing the involvement of extra-regional powers in Islamic world and also the increase or decrease of ethnic and religious challenges in the Islamic world. Three scenarios have been designed based on these uncertainties, which include the convergence of power construction in the next decade in the Islamic world, further divergence, and maintaining the status quo. The results of the research show that by reducing the involvement of extra-regional powers and reducing ethnic and religious challenges, the Islamic world will move towards convergence. If the involvement of extra-regional powers increases and ethnic-religious challenges increase, the Islamic world will go towards further divergence. Also, if the involvement of extra-regional powers decreases and the ethno-religious challenges increase, we will witness the continuation of the existing situation.