جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "symmetric" در نشریات گروه "علوم سیاسی"

One of the core issues in the complex international system is the order management of phenomena within particular realms of the system. This study, premised on the complex phenomena within the international system, strives to address how regional order management along with regional regulation are achieved within the complex international system. The findings of this study suggest that systemic interventions, which impact the key variables of a regional system and are initiated by trans-regional actors, and hegemonic and regional power, are proposed as a means to manage issues within complex regions. However, the degree of these interventions can vary significantly, depending on whether the regions are symmetrical or asymmetrical. In symmetrical regions, given the heightened sensitivity and vulnerability of the actors involved, as well as the robust regional bond and coalition structures, there exists a Nash equilibrium, which serves as the focal point for resolving regional conflicts. In asymmetrical regions, due to the fragile nature of the bond and coalition structures and the contentious regional issues, conflicts tend to escalate. Moreover, this often leads to maximum interventions by trans-regional actors.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the symmetric and asymmetric causality relationship between three variables of global geopolitical risk index, crude oil price and Middle East region's defense expenditures during the years 1988-2021. For this purpose, the Granger causality test of Hatemi-J (2012) has been used in the form of bivariate analysis. The results of the symmetric causality test between the variables show that only the existence of a one-way causality relationship is confirmed from the side of crude oil price to the Middle East region's defense expenditures. The results of the asymmetric causality test also confirm the one-way causality relationship from the positive shocks of the global geopolitical risk index and the crude oil price to the positive shocks of Middle East region's defense expenditures. Also, the one-way asymmetric causality is confirmed from the side of negative crude oil price shocks to the negative shocks of Middle East region's defense expenditures and from the side of positive global geopolitical risk index shocks to positive crude oil price shocks. Based on this, it can be said that an increase in the global geopolitical risk leads to an increase in the crude oil price. The increase in the global geopolitical risk and the crude oil price also leads to an increase in defense spending in the Middle East region. Also, it can be expected that with the decrease in the crude oil price, the defense expenditures in the Middle East region will decrease.