جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "آینده نگاری منطقه ای" در نشریات گروه "جغرافیا"

Lack of attention to the future in the tourism policies of Iran and insisting on the model of "planning based on the current situation" has led to the adoption of very inefficient policies to manage sports tourism destinations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the future of sports tourism destinations based on identifying the factors leading to possible scenarios up to the time horizon of 1410, which has been done through a case study in Isfahan province. The research method of this study is survey. Research data were collected using three methods interview, theoretical literature review and weighted questionnaires. The statistical population of the study included 14 experts in the field of sports tourism. Data analysis was performed using structural analysis and scenario analysis. The findings showed that Isfahan sports tourism system is an unstable system with 16 scenarios including two unlikely scenarios, seven inconsistent scenarios, two low-probabilities, three medium-probability and two high-probability scenarios.The sixth scenario is the most likely scenario for the 10-year future of Isfahan province. Based on this scenario, investment in sports tourism infrastructure is stagnant or declining, and there will be no intelligent policy for the development of sports tourism. For this reason, The lack of a unified and coherent policy with the ability of continuous and dynamic updating at the national level, has led to the vulnerability of sports tourism destinations in Isfahan province. Therefore, the most important strategies and future planning actions should be focused on policy-making at the provincial level.

The study is applied research and it was carried out by a survey-descriptive method, with the technique of co-occurrence analysis and co-authorship of related researches, as well as the network analysis method with an exploratory approach and knowledge maps. The statistical population includes all the metadata of related documents available in Science Direct scientific database (8012 documents) from 1999 to 2022, which for the accuracy of the work was limited to 21 titles of publications related to "environmental sciences" in 7 subject areas and 1434 documents were collected. The research results show the upward growth of studies in this field in the world. The keyword "Foresight" is ranked first and the keywords "climate changes", "scenarios", "innovation" and "sustainability" are in the next ranks. A total of 11 clusters were extracted in the subject area. Since 2016, the keyword "Resilience" is an emerging and prominent word that has created a meaningful connection with the words "sustainability development" and "sustainability intensification". During the research period, at least 2 scientific research articles have been published in the desired field from among about 390 authors. The most significant development event in the field of study since 2011 has been formed with the study of "Rob", "Berkhout" and "Andrew", which is widely linked to other authors with the reference of "Detlef" in 2014-2015. In 2016, the effects of co-authoring have reached their highest level. "Bosetti", "Kriegler", and "Eom" have had a strong degree of connection and more occurrences with other authors in this field.

Lack of attention to the future in the micro and macro tourism policies of the country and insisting on the model of "planning based on the current situation" has led to the adoption of very fragile policies to manage sports tourism destinations. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the future of sports tourism destinations based on identifying the factors and drivers leading to possible scenarios up to the time horizon of 2031, which has been done through a case study in Isfahan province.

The research method of this study is survey. Research data were collected using three

interview, theoretical literature review and weighted questionnaires. The statistical population of the study included 14 experts in the field of sports tourism who were selected by purposive method. Data analysis was performed using structural analysis and scenario analysis.

Isfahan sports tourism system is an unstable system that in the future will depend on the immediate changes of variables with high uncertainty. Based on the identification of four critical uncertainties and five predetermined factors, a total of 16 scenarios were created, including two unlikely scenarios, five inconsistent scenarios, three low-probability scenarios, four medium-probability scenarios and two high-probability scenarios.

The lack of a unified and coherent policy with the ability of continuous and dynamic updating at the national level, has led to the vulnerability of sports tourism destinations in Isfahan province. Therefore, the most important strategies and future planning actions should be focused on policy-making at the provincial level.

The increase in changes and rapid global reformations have boosted uncertainty toward the future and thus complexity of problems and difficulty in decision-making and planning in the fields of environment preservation and ecology sustainability. Regional foresight, as a brand new approach, plays an important role in ecological issues which can provide a sound understanding of what might happen in the future based on various human and technology measures. Based on these facts, the present study aims at the formulation of spatial scenarios based on ecologic sustainability in Mashhad metropolitan region through the regional foresight approach. This research is an applied one and it is descriptive-analytic in nature and method. The data and information required for the research are a combination of qualitative and quantitative data collected through documentary and survey studies (interviewing experts). Fuzzy Linguistic Mic Mac by FL MicMac software was used to analyze data and identifying key factors and Morphological analysis and Morphol software were used to analyze and formulate the scenarios. The results of the study indicate the impact of 11 key factors: "academic defects in the long-term planning of the region", "legal drawbacks, inattention to regulation and law enforcement by the relevant authorities", lack of policy integration in planning”, "Over-Establishment of Industries in the Mashhad Plain (Axar-Quchan-Mashhad)", "Migration", "Expansion of Transport Lines (Roads and Transportation)", "Unstable income of regional municipalities", "Irregular cultivation and irrigation of agricultural products", "Unauthorized exploitation of mines", "Technology" and "Insufficient trust in public participation and ignoring the role of NGOs" on ecological development of Mashhad metropolitan region. Also, according to the research findings, Mashhad metropolitan region will be faced with five possible scenarios with a significant probability of 4.1 in spatial development. Each of these scenarios is compared using components such as "probability percentage", "inertia value" and "degree of utility of each scenario", and finally the third scenario (Ecotopia) is selected as the optimal scenario of the region. This scenario was growing and more favourable than other scenarios, and its assumptions indicate the gradual movement of key factors of spatial development in the region based on ecological principles.

Regional Foresight, which focuses on some of the specific land area in a given territory sub-national aims to achieve the desired future decisions, will be operational. An important factor in the success of regional Foresight is exploring the opportunities of local identity at the sub-national level and political leverage of national and transnational. West Azarbaijanas a strategic region in Iran has a wide range of possible futures. The operational objective of this study is to identify the key Indicators of regional development and its ultimate goal future of W.A proper approach to regional foresight. The present study utilizes existing studies in the field of regional development measures in six groups of social, economic, political, environmental, Spatial organization and Science and Technology are classified. Based on national documents 18 factors for regional development have been recognized in the W.A Then, by distributing 36 questionnaires, opinions of a group of senior executives and experts from various province management institutions are collected. The extracted data using a combination of average analysis methods and TOPSIS, and key factors of regional development have been extracted. Findings show that "Agriculture", "management style" and "communications infrastructure" as three regional development key factors made eight scenarios. The selected scenario is based on industrial agriculture, private management style and network infrastructure. Analysis of in-depth interviews and questionnaires distributed development approaches and strategies for the development and operation of regional development vision statement of W.A latest achievement in this study.