جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « مدیریت ریسک » در نشریات گروه « جغرافیا »

Spatial policy regarding flood risk management is a series of actions that aims at achieving a logical solution for reducing the damages caused by floods and reducing the spread of floods. Spatial policies for flood risk management in villages are at the intersection of many management considerations, and thus, when formulating spatial policies for flood risk management, several indicators including environmental, economic, social-cultural, managerial-institutional and physical indicators should be considered. In this regard, this research examined the importance of each of the indicators in formulating the spatial policy of flood risk management in villages. According to the purpose of the research, which is identifying the importance of indicators in spatial policy making, the statistical population of the research consisted of experts, including academic faculty members specializing in this field, graduates and doctoral students defending their theses on the issues, and the people in charge. For this purpose, 70 participants were selected. From their point of view, the relevant questionnaire has a good level of validity and reliability with Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.97, which shows a very good level, considering the type of indicators and the number of samples. ANOVA, statistical tests, and Duncan's post hoc statistical test were used. The results indicated that the environmental index has the least importance with the value of 2.9484 in spectrum one along with the economic index with the value 1056/3. Social-cultural indicators with a value of 3.2381 and managerial-institutional indicators with a value of 3.3105 are close. The two indicators (social-cultural and managerial-institutional), due to their closeness to the significance of physical index (land use), were placed in the third spectrum. The only index that was separately placed in one spectrum and group is the physical index (land use). This indicator with the value of 3.4186 is in the third group and has the largest sub-set, which shows the greater importance of this index on spatial policy of flood risk management in villages.

Every year, natural hazards occur with great severity and sometimes they destroy people completely Today, science has proven that natural hazards cannot be avoided. He simply considered a natural event and did not pay attention to their complex causes. Most of these causes are attributed to a combination of socio-economic factors. But it is possible to reduce their consequences by carefully planning against such accidents. When these hazards and disasters have a human aspect and affect humans, human activity and human environment, they are introduced as crisis.
According to the statistics of the Food and Agriculture Organization of FAO, 5-15% of agricultural products are lost annually due to damage caused by frost and frost, this number reaches more than 40% for some sensitive garden products, especially almonds, pistachios and apricots. . The amount of damage caused by this complication in Iran is more than 500 million dollars. Rural settlements suffer the most damage after a drought. Thus, there is a significant relationship between the risk management of agricultural activities with most environmental components and natural disasters such as drought, flood, frost, etc. up to the 99% confidence level. In order to reduce the effects of natural hazards in rural areas, there are various strategies that can be used to manage the risk of natural hazards , diversification of agricultural productio, contract farming and increasing farmers' awareness of natural hazards.
Gardens are one of the most important sources of livelihood in rural areas in Tuysarkan city in Hamadan province. Tuysarkan city has 7600 hectares of garden lands, which includes 14% of all gardens in Hamadan province. Due to its geographical location, weather conditions and geological structure, this city is exposed to various natural hazards. Among them, we can mention drought, land subsidence, frost and earthquake. Identifying natural hazards in Tuiserkan city and the effects of these hazards, as well as the actions of the local community to reduce existing hazards, are among the most important goals of this research.

In the current research, we tried to use different methods so that the subject can be better investigated from different angles of research. This research is applied in terms of purpose and based on a descriptive-analytical research plan and is considered analytical-exploratory in nature. The research data has been collected through questionnaires and official statistics of institutions such as Iran Water Resources Management Company and the country's Meteorological Organization. Data analysis has been done descriptively and analytically using Excel and GIS software.

The results of the research show that the most important hazards in the field of horticulture in the central part of Tuiserkan are frost in the first place and drought and hail in the second and third places. Also, other results show that the most important risk that affects the livelihood and income of the local community is the annual frost of gardens, which has caused the migration of some family members, and the amount of income is also affected by this risk. Regarding the solutions proposed by the local community to reduce the effects of natural hazards on walnut orchards, providing financial facilities, using information technology, and planting cold-resistant species were among the most important solutions proposed by the local community. Regarding the analysis of open questions and conducted interviews, Netaj shows that the most important measures to reduce the effects of natural hazards (freezing, drought and hail) on walnut orchards are: heating the orchard environment, using resistant and using drip irrigation. Also, the evaluation of the analysis of local knowledge and the experience of the past regarding measures to reduce the effects of frost on walnut orchards shows that the actions of the past are not very popular with the current generation and they are doing the same thing that the past did. With this difference, the ancients believed more in luck and destiny than in practical action. Finally, from the point of view of the local community, the best measure to reduce the effects of frost on the walnut orchards in the central part of Tuiserkan is genetic modification of the orchards and cultivation of resistant species.

Nowadays, resilience has become an important concept in scientific research and political discourses, and it is considered a basic approach in facing all kinds of crises and risks in cities. Also, due to the locality of crises and their effects, planning and managing resilience on a local scale is considered one of the basic principles. Considering the importance of resilience at the local scale, the present research was written with the aim of evaluating the implementation of the principles of resilience and streamlining of risk management at the local scale of Tabriz metropolis. In this regard, the research method is practical in terms of its purpose and in terms of analytical-exploratory nature, in order to analyze information, were used logarithmic regression model, VIKOR multi-criteria decision making model and Shannon's entropy weighting method. The statistical population of the research also includes managers and city officials involved in the field of crisis management, and the size of the statistical sample was determined using the targeted Delphi method of 100 people. The findings of the research show that out of the 9 investigated components, only two components of financial considerations and participatory management with beta coefficients of 0.652 and 0.617 are significant at the confidence level of 0.95 and have been realized. On the other hand, among the investigated components, the most unfavorable situation was the components of knowledge management and accountability and recovery. Also, it is recommended to implement the principles of resilience and streamline risk management only in the 2nd, 5th and 9th districts of Tabriz metropolis. Therefore, it can be said that the implementation of the principles of resilience and streamlining of risk management at the local scale of Tabriz metropolis has an unfavorable situation and we need strategic planning in this field.

In recent years, studies on children’s perception and knowledge of risks and strengthening their preparedness against risks have increased. This can be due to the change of disaster management approaches from the passive approaches of the past to efforts for pre-danger management and the increasing influence of the readiness of all groups and strata of a society, including children. This study evaluated and analyzed the level of awareness of children of the danger of earthquakes in the form of variables of recognizing the risk and its causes and effects, and how to face it in the form of the variables of awareness of preventive measures, preparation and optimal methods of response among 169 children of 5 to 12 years old in Zirkouh, South Khorasan province. Questionnaire and interviewes were used for collecting data. The findings showed that the average level of awareness and knowledge of risk management among rural children is very low and needs to be improved. The results of the single-sample t-test in evaluating the average awareness and knowledge of risk management in all four measured dimensions are lower than the average value level. Moreover, the results of the correlation test showed that there is a significant positive relationship between the perception and awareness of the nature of the earthquake with the knowledge of risk management regarding the four dimensions.

Spatial policy regarding flood risk management is a series of actions that are aimed at achieving a logical solution in reducing the damage caused by floods and reducing the spread of floods (Sinha et al., 2020). The impact of devastating floods on global lives and livelihoods is growing. Large-scale floods caused 104 billion US dollars in damages globally between 2000 and 2015 (United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015). As the climate changes, populations increase, and demand for housing and infrastructure grows, now more than ever, society needs to manage its flood risk and adapt to climate change. For this reason, achieving a spatial and logical comprehensive policy in flood risk management in a way that is efficient and sustainable, in research, policies and practice, requires (related program in flood management, 2017). Accordingly, the issue raised here is that; among the mentioned indicators, which of them is more important in making the spatial policy of rural flood risk management more efficient? Based on this, the necessity of research in this direction is that the present research has first identified all the items related to the indicators. Then he examines the importance of each of them in order to be able to answer this research problem.

The method of the present research is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of the nature of information gathering. The method of data collection in this research will be both library and field. In the first step, library studies related to the research title will be used to compile the research literature, background, and theoretical foundations of the research. In addition, in the second step, it is used in the field and quantitatively by using the questionnaire tool to check the hypotheses of the research. The statistical population of this research consists of experts in the field, including faculty members specializing in this field, graduates and doctoral students with the title of a related thesis, and people in charge of the field, for this purpose, 70 samples have been selected (explained in the table below). From their point of view, the related questionnaire has a favorable level of validity and reliability with Cronbach's alpha coefficient of 0.97, which shows a very favorable level. Finally, one-way ANOVA (F) statistical test was used to analyze the data obtained from the mentioned questionnaire for the items of each index and finally all the indices.

According to the problem stated in the introduction, in order to examine the importance of various indicators in the spatial policy of rural flood risk management, to examine the status of each of the five indicators (environmental, economic, social-cultural, managerial-institutional) and physical (land use)) deals with spatial policy of rural flood risk management To be able to identify the various aspects of the importance of each of the indicators and finally respond to the problem according to the opinions of the sample community.To determine the importance of each of the indicators on the spatial policy of rural flood risk management, we have used Duncan's post hoc test, and the output of this test is grouped into three spectrums. They are classified according to their importance. So that the environmental index is the least important with a value of 2.9484 in spectrum one along with the economic index with a value of 3.1056, but the economic index is due to its proximity to social-cultural indicators with a value of 3.2381 and managerial-institutional indicators. With the value of 3105.3, they are the same shade in the spectrum and these two indicators (social-cultural and managerial-institutional) are placed in the third spectrum because of their proximity to the importance of the physical index (land use) and the only index that is the individual is placed in a spectrum and group. It is the physical index (land use) which is placed in the third group with the value of 3.4186 and has the largest sub-set for alpha, which shows the greater importance of this index on the spatial policy of management. The flood risk for the villages located in the watershed of Gorgan River in Golestan province has been that the following graph, which is the output of Duncan's post hoc test, also indicates the same performance of the indicators that as can be seen, environmental indicators are the least important. In addition, after that, the social-cultural index is the least important, and then the economic index and then the administrative-institutional index play a more important role. Finally, the physical indicators (land use) are the most important. The category of significance level, which is stated below the three groups, shows the lack of significance within the groups because of the closeness of their performance within each of the three spectrums.

According to the investigations carried out in the present study in two steps, first, through the study of available sources, the effective indicators and items in the spatial policy of rural flood risk management have been identified. Based on this, 5 indicators and 120 items have been identified. In order to check the importance of each of them, according to the type of indicators, ANOVA test (one-way analysis of variance) was used, the results of which can be summarized as follows: in the inter-group and intra-group sections. It is possible to understand the level of output desirability according to the average of squares and the sum of squares But what is important and effective in the ANOVA test output table is the F test statistic and the significance level value, which the test statistic number is 6.229 and the significance level value is 99 percent, which shows the very high importance of the five indicators on politics. Spatial planning is rural flood risk management. Based on this, Duncan's test was used to determine the importance of each of the indicators separately, and the results show that the output of this test is that the indicators are grouped into three spectrums, the reason for this problem Three spectrums are categorized according to their importance, So that the environmental index is the least important with a value of 2.9484 in spectrum one along with the economic index with a value of 3.1056, but the economic index is due to its proximity to social-cultural indicators with a value of 3.2381 and managerial-institutional indicators. With the value of 3105.3, they are the same shade in the spectrum and these two indicators (social-cultural and managerial-institutional) are placed in the third spectrum because of their proximity to the importance of the physical index (land use) and the only index that is Separately, it is placed in a spectrum and group, it is the physical index (land use), which is placed in the third group with a value of 3.4186, and has the largest subset for alpha.This shows the greater importance of this index on the spatial policy of flood risk management for the villages located in the Gorgan River watershed of Golestan province, and the following graph, which is the output of Duncan's post hoc test, also indicates the same performance of the indicators. As it can be seen, the environmental indicators are the least important, then the socio-cultural index is the least important, and then the economic index and then the administrative-institutional index play a more important role. Finally, physical indicators (land use) have the most importance in the spatial policy of rural flood risk management.

 Livestock industry is one of the economic activities in rural areas, which is tied to food security and community health, and is a dynamic and employment-generating industry that is one of the main sectors of protein and dairy production is very important in nutrition. It has humans. And it can be said that one of the most risky agricultural activities is the livestock sector, and many uncontrollable factors, such as climate change, droughts and diseases have a negative impact on this economic activity. Risks such as price changes and instability of production factors also exacerbate this in the country. Based on this, the present study has been carried out with a descriptive-analytical method and with the practical purpose of examining and identifying livestock risk management in rural areas of Golpayegan county. Data collection using official and written data was first done in the form of a library and then based on research and field studies with interviews. The statistical population of the study is the total number of livestock households in Mazraeh, Qaleghan, Asfarjan and Robat Qaleghan villages, which has 200 livestock households; Cochran's formula was used to estimate the sample size and 132 livestock families were selected as the sample. The results show that first the risk of fodder and livestock inputs in the studied villages is more important and more frequent, and then the risk of natural factors (severe cold, very hot weather and drought) and theft with equal share and frequency are more important. . And livestock activists first plant low-water forage and store inputs to reduce existing risks; Also, to reduce the risk of natural causes and theft, they build roofed shelters suitable for the cold season and spray livestock in the hot season and install cameras and alarms in their farms.

As a whole, the world is experiencing an increase in the intensity and abundance of natural hazards, which it is a major threat to all regions. Basically, natural hazards can be recognized as a potential hazard because of the combination of disasters, vulnerability conditions and inadequate measures to mitigate the negative consequences. In fact, the natural hazard is an unexpected event that disrupts the normal functioning of a society and generally leading to loss of life, livelihoods and damage to the infrastructure of communities. Therefore, take preventive measures and preparedness for these events can greatly reduce costs. For this reason, Emphasis on risk management and to take preventive measures today is one of the most fundamental approaches in the crisis management literature. But the realization of this process, especially in rural communities and the attract of local communities to take precautionary measures, is overshadowed by many factors and obstacles, that the level of local communities' expectations of the government for crisis management and its effects is one of the most important. In communities where the government participates in all levels of risk planning and accountability and the local government has the primary responsibility for emergency response to the hazard, most people believe that "the government must take responsibility of coping with the problems due the risks". Likewise, they expect the government to be prepared and responsive to natural hazards. There is widespread agreement among economists that expectations influence people's behavior and actions. So that even if residents are aware of the environmental risk, they may believe that government planning and preparation is sufficient for risk management. So they do not feel the need to take home preparedness measures.

the present study analyzes the impact of expectations from the government on the extent of local community interest to take precautionary measures against natural hazards. A descriptive - survey method and a questionnaire were used for this purpose. In this study, the level of analysis is rural and its unit of analysis are rural households. Fazl has been selected as the study area, which is one of the districts of Neyshabur County in Khorasan Razavi province. At first, 15 villages were selected for field study through Formula N0 and then, sample villages were selected based on the location of the villages in the hazardous areas. Research indicators and variables have been compiled according to the theoretical foundations and review of previous studies. Variable of expectations level of local communities about intervention and the role of government in the risk process have been measured the following two types of structural and non-structural approaches and variable of propensity to take preventive measures by local communities have been measured the following economic, social, skill-individual and physical-environmental dimensions. One-sample t-test, Pearson correlation, linear regression test, and one-way ANOVA were used to measure the purpose and data analysis. The present study has applied nature and is a descriptive-analytical research.

According to the results, in the study area the tendency to preventive measures in all economic, social, skill-individual and physical-environmental dimensions is lower than the average level. The level of expectations of the sample communities from the government against risk indicates that these expectations are very high in both structural and non-structural sectors as well as before, during and after the risks. The results of the Pearson correlation test indicate that there is a significant relationship between the two variables of rural expectations of government and the reluctance of local communities to take precautionary measures against natural hazards. On the other hand, the results of the regression test also confirm the variable impact of rural expectations of the government on the reluctance of local communities to take precautionary measures against natural hazards. Based on the results, Willingness to take preventive measures are more prevalent among villagers whose their preferential reaction to risk is based on the documentation and archive of their experience.

In general, the emphasis on preventive measures before the occurrence of hazards and to take the process of risk management by local communities is one of the priorities of many governments in the process of risk management. In the meantime, the reliance on the government, or the high level of expectations of the people from government on risk management measures, has led to a significantly decrease in their reluctance and participation in preventive measures. Perhaps this level of expectation from the government about risk management can be largely attributed to the inaccurate timely management of the risk management process by government agencies and crisis management authorities, So that if the costs of rebuilding and repairing the damage are shifted to participatory preventive measures, Increasing the readiness of local communities to deal with the effects of hazards and mitigating the damages, Their level of expectations and views on government duties and the scope of these tasks were made clearer. However, one should not neglect the small villagers' financial ability to preventive measures and the status of supervisory levers. Encouraging people to take precautionary measures and be prepared for natural hazards, existence strict rules for people who have built their homes in hazardous areas, Raising public awareness of preventive measures and preparedness for natural hazards, forming voluntary and mobilizing groups from local communities and training them in emergencies to respond quickly, create funds by local people to raise funds for emergencies, these include suggestions to increase the willingness of local communities to take preventive measures In line reduce public dependence on government action. According to the results, in the study area the tendency to preventive measures in all economic, social, skill-individual and physical-environmental dimensions is lower than the average level.the present study analyzes the impact of expectations from the government on the extent of local community interest to take precautionary measures against natural hazards

Saffron as the most valuable agricultural and medicinal product in the world is one of the plants that due to its adaptation to drought, has a significant role in the economic and social situation of arid and semi-arid regions, including Rashtkhar village. Accordingly, given that natural disasters have threatened the lives of humans, especially villagers, economically and socially, and sometimes disrupted their lives. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting the psychological competence of rural saffron farmers according to production risk management strategies in Rashtkhar rural area. This research has been done by descriptive-analytical method. In this regard, the factors affecting psychological ability in 355 saffron working families living in 13 villages with more than 100 households in this district were studied. The field data collection tool in this study was a researcher-made questionnaire whose apparent and content validity was obtained by obtaining the opinions of specialists, experts and professors and after several stages of correction and revision. Its reliability was confirmed using a preliminary test through 30 questionnaires, which is equal to 0.86. For data analysis, the stakeholder matrix in the integrated model of ASM, SPSS software and for spatial analysis, software and Topsis-Fazi were used. Findings indicate that there is a significant relationship between the factors affecting the psychological empowerment of rural saffron farmers and risk-based production management. Also, the research findings show that among the factors affecting psychological empowerment, the factor of ability and decision-making in production risk-based management strategies by saffron farmers is more important. Therefore, the results show that it is better to hold training classes for empowerment in order to better use risk management among saffron farmers, not far from the minds of government officials and agents.

The purpose of this study is to assess and manage the risk of sports venues related to air pollution zoning using GIS. This research is cross-sectional in terms of execution time and applied in terms of outputs, and descriptive-analytical and comparative in terms of analysis. In this study, sports venues in the northwest of Tehran were surveyed in total. In order to enter the data, kriging method was used. After estimating the average data concentration of pollutants, zoning was performed for all stations using Kriging method by ArcGIS software. The basis for measuring the amount of pollutants was adjusted based on the Air Quality Index (AQI). The results showed that the air quality index was healthy throughout the study area but no clean study areas (0-50) were reported. Pollutants showed that the distribution of pollutants did not follow a balanced pattern. The relationship with risk assessment using the William Fine method is a risk rating of 150, which indicates the state of emergency and the "average risk level" and it is necessary to pay attention as soon as possible. They are fossils and are the most important pollutants. Therefore, in order to reduce air pollution, urban constructions, design of networks and communication axes should be considere

Considering the extraordinary importance of the city of Tabriz in terms of political, economic, social and other aspects, on the one hand, and this on the other hand, this paper, on the one hand, and its high-seismicity, on the other hand, are first of all important studies on urban planning and design. Natural disasters and special studies of Tabriz have been briefly reviewed in this regard. The view that has existed in disaster management and urban management so far has been more coping and mitigating. Meanwhile, the concept of vulnerability and risk management is a new concept that is used more in the face of unknowns and uncertainties. Therefore, the role of risk management in dealing with natural disasters with an emphasis on future probable earthquakes has been analyzed. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the risk management, evaluation and assessment of the vulnerability of Tabriz Metropolitan Area 8 in earthquake hazards. This article is descriptive. Therefore, at first, the components and dimensions of urban vulnerability were prepared. Then, using experts' viewpoints, as well as comparative studies, the dimensions and final components were prepared and analyzed by analyzing the questionnaires and performing the necessary calculations and calculations of the vulnerability of the metropolitan metropolis of Tabriz in different dimensions and components. Finally, by evaluating the weaknesses, strengths, threats and opportunities, the future strategies of the 8th metropolitan area of ​​Tabriz were presented by swot method.

Thermal stress poses significant direct and indirect risks to human health. Under climate change, both mean temperature and the frequency and intensity of extreme thermal stress events are projected to increase. Located within an arid to semi-arid region, Iran is anticipated to experience particularly intense temperature and humidity changes under climate change, potentially heightening the public health challenges associated with thermal stress. To facilitate improved adaptation to these thermal threats, accurate high spatial resolution thermal heat stress risk maps are important. This study combines various climate indices to produce such a thermal stress risk map for the reference period 1980-2010, with RCP4.5 projections for the period 2020-2049. Although the results of the various indices are statistically significantly correlated, each index returned a remarkably different spatial distribution and risk classification. Therefore, a fuzzy approach was followed through a geographical information system (GIS) to combine the results of the five bioclimatic indices and prepare a final thermal stress risk map. Based on the RCP4.5 scenario, the results indicate a notable 24.5% reduction in the areas susceptible to thermal stress at the high-risk and very high-risk levels, compared to the reference period. The lowest projected risk is for the central parts of Iran, while the southern and northern coasts of Iran were the zones of the highest risk, for which adaptation responses are most necessary.

Drought is among disasters that caused a large amount of financial burden to Iranian economy. However, drought management strategies have focused on crisis management instead of risk management. Drought risk management strategies take early warning system as a its focal point in order to disseminate information to drought-affected individuals which in turn reduces drought risk. The purpose of this qualitative study is to analyze mechanisms needed to deploy the production and diffusion of drought early warning system information in Kermanshah Township. Using case study as well as documentary approach, a critical case sample of 26 specialist from Meteorological, Agricultural Organization, Regional Water Company, Agricultural and Natural Resource Engineering System, Agricultural Bank, Regional Sound and Vision Broadcasting and Crisis Department and Municipalities participated in the study. The findings revealed that drought early warning system is not unified in a systematic manner and the stakeholders use their own method of disseminating information independently with limited knowledge of local context and poor knowledge of farmers’ needs and reactions. The findings of this study have implications to design drought early warning system in Kermanshah Province as well as farmers’ empowerment in terms of drought risk reduction.

Earthquakes are natural disasters that take place during a short time and may bring about considerable damage. In Iran, rural areas are significantly subject to damages caused by earthquakes. Due to their close connections to the natural environment and limited capacity against environmental threats, rural communities are more vulnerable to environmental risks such as earthquakes. Subsequently, during the past few decades, special attention has been paid to the identification and presentation of essential strategies to confront the earthquake phenomenon in different scales, at both global and domestic levels, in the form of new management methods such as risk management. Izadkhast region of Zarrindasht town is located in Chah Reza Fault, in the middle of the high seismic area of Zagros; therefore, the region is significantly subject to earthquakes. The occurrence of this natural disasters have brought about considerable damages to human settlements in this region, particularly in rural areas, times and times again. As a result, the present study seeks to examine the views of local settlers and investigate the vulnerability status of rural communities to earthquake risks; to this end, it is attempted to provide answers to this question: Have risk management indices been effective on reducing the vulnerability of rural settlements?

In the recent years, there has been a paradigm shift in the majority of studies on disasters and risks from “reducing damages and casualties” to a more comprehensive model involving risk management based upon social systems and social problem-solving approaches. It should be noted that the science of risk management has offered numerous potential and practical capabilities in this regard; consequently, it is considered as a necessity with regards to the subject at hand. In a study conducted as a comprehensive plan for earthquake risk management in Mumbai, Sinha, Goyal, Shinde and Meena (2012) assessed the risks and the reduction of damages. Their results showed the significant effect of construction type and economic characteristics on reducing the vulnerability of the region.Wen-co and Ling (2013) evaluated the earthquake risks and efficient management strategies of earthquake risks for the Heitech Region in Taiwan. According to the results, an efficient risk management strategy should be designed in order to calculate the total costs of annual earthquake risks. At the same time, Dixit, Yatabe, Dahal and Bhandary (2013) examined the initiatives for earthquake risk management at Kathmandu Valley and showed that the major factors that contribute to the vulnerability of the region to earthquakes include lack of trained personnel, building inspectors, engineers and architects to ensure earthquake safety improvement.In Iran, Roumiani, Einali and Salehi Mishani (2015) investigated the role of management in the development of rural communities in confronting earthquake risks in Zagheh Village, Khoramabad Town. Based on their results and the views of rural authorities, the presence of weaknesses in economic capacities and strengths and hence, the low income of rural residents at the region have reduced their ability in strengthening the houses located at their settlements.

The present applied study was conducted using the descriptive-analytical method. In order to obtain the people’s opinions to assess risk management at earthquake-stricken areas, document and field studies were carried out using instruments including questionnaires and interviews. The total population of the study included 2,381 rural households living in Izadkhast region and seven villages located at the vicinity of fault including Mazaijan, Darreh Shour, Golkouyeh, Dehno, Chah Zebar, Bon Dasht, and Panj Chah. The sample population was calculated as 350 households using Cochran’s formula. Data were analyzed via descriptive and inferential methods such as one-sample t test, Freidman, and multi-variable regression.

According to the results obtained from the examination of the vulnerability status of rural communities to earthquake risks and Friedman test, the calculated mean value was below average and the significance level was below 0.05. Therefore, the vulnerability of the sample community to earthquakes is confirmed as significant. The results obtained from the examination of the most important factors of rural settlements’ vulnerability to earthquakes according to Friedman test suggested a significant difference among the mean values of economic, social, institutional, and physical-environmental vulnerability variables at 0.01 alpha level. Meanwhile, the highest and lowest rating averages belonged to physical-environmental and institutional variables, respectively. The regression method was used to examine the effect of risk management indices on reducing vulnerability. The results demonstrated that the variable of buildings’ resistance against earthquakes had the highest effect on reducing vulnerability of the studied region.

The present study was conducted with the purpose of examining the role of earthquake risk management in reducing the vulnerability of rural communities in Zarin Dasht Town. The findings of the study showed that the extent of vulnerability to earthquakes is below average at all dimensions including economic, social, institutional, and physical-environmental. The following recommendations are listed below based on the obtained results in line with reducing the damages caused by earthquake risk within the framework of risk management indices:Empowerment of local people and authorities in various affairs prior to earthquakes;Reinforcement of vulnerable buildings using the capabilities of local authorities;Improving awareness, particularly awareness of the time of earthquake occurrence using local and modern scientific capacities.

Temperature is one of the most important parameters of the climate, which is the source of many physical, chemical and environmental changes. Regional assessments of these changes and their understanding of the process in different climatic zones are essential because they can help identify the severe climatic events and their impact on environmental systems and risk management. The importance of the issue and uncertainty about future changes will require us to know why and how the temperature changes affect climate conditions in the future. For this reason, the study of climate events has become a special issue. changes in the average of minimum and maximum temperature have become more intense in recent decades; thus directly or indirectly through the expansion of the growth season of pests and pathogens, increased drought in the spring and soil erosion, etc., can be plant, animal and human life Threatened Hence, the accurate analysis of changes in spatial-temporal patterns is the minimum and maximum temperature for establishing ecosystem management strategies. The geographic location of Iran and the wide range of deserts and dry lands with mountainous areas make its ecosystem vulnerable to slight changes in temperature. Because temperature variations and affect on limit plant growth, it can challenge their stability and flexibility. In this research, by selecting 26 synoptic stations, the required statistics including mean, coefficient of variation, estimation of high and low probability of 20% for two 30-year periods (1951-1980) and (1981-2010) and two 10-year periods (1951-1960) and (2010-2001) and a 60-year period (1951-2010) were calculated using R software. Then, using the Mann-Kendall test, the two parameters were calculated for the period of 60 years. In the next stage, the patterns of each of the stories were mapped using the IDW method in GIS software and were then interpreted. The pattern of the average of maximum, minimum and their coefficient of variation shows in the spring, summer and warm period associated with tittle variations. The coefficient of change in the western and northern parts of the country is more variable. The southern half is modest in all three periods. The average of the maximum and minimum temperatures of most stations in the periods 1981-2010 and 2001-2010 has increased. The increase in the mean temperature of the maximum temperature is slower, which reduces the range of temperature changes overnight. The Midwest has the highest average and minimum temperature difference, which is consistent with the results of the difference between the average temperature of the minimum and maximum periods (1960-1951 and 2010-2001). The highest increase was observed in the average temperature of Ahwaz, Tehran, Mashhad, Shiraz and Shahrood cities. The probability of 20%, which is higher than the average maximum temperature, and 20%, which is below the mean minimum temperature showed that the frequency and intensity of the hot and cold periods increased during in 1981-2010.
The difference between the average minimum and maximum temperatures 2001-2010 and 1951-1960 showed that except for Urmia, Hamedan, Shahrekord, Khorramabad and Bandarabbas, the remaining stations experienced this increase in spring. In summer, the stations of Urmia, Shahrekord and Kerman, the rest of the stations for the last 10 years have experienced a rise in the average temperature. Data reconciliation using the Mann-Kendall test for the period 1981-2010 showed that average minimum temperature of 21 stations during spring, and 22 stations in summer was significant. The average temperature of the two stations of Shahrekord and Khorramabad in spring, as well as Urmia and Shahrekord in summer have a significant decrease. The average temperature of spring and summer is also increasing and decreasing. The rate of increases the average temperature of spring and summer months more severely than the average temperature increase, thereby reducing the range of temperature changes (DTR). The average temperature pattern and its coefficient of variation in spring, summer and warm periods in the western and northern parts of the country are more variable than the rest of the regions. The highest coefficient of variation in the northwest, west and the Caspian basin is related to Anzali, Urmia and Zanjan stations, which seems to be influenced more by northern cold weather and roughness conditions. The southern half of the country has notable changes in all three periods indicating that the regime is still stable in spring and summer temperature variations in the region. It is concluded that in these sections, when the northwest adjacent high-lying area is displaced to the central and northern parts of Iran, these areas are affected by the flow of tropical regions increase in the average of maximun and minimum temperature of most stations in the north-west and west in the second period can be explained by changes in land use, urban expansion, population growth, and consequently, the increase of greenhouse gases and thermal systems and the station's displacement, which can change the climate create an area. It also seems that in the second period, the impact of the northern currents reduced to the first period, and the same has been added to the effects of systems with a southern source and high-altitude hegemonic sovereignty. The increase in mean temperature in the second period was lower in most of the stations than in the first period in summer, which seems to be due to the decrease in the frequency of relatively cold air invasion and also the convective systems. The relative disparity in the north and west of the country is due to the height and direction of roughness. The increase in minimum temperatures in stations like Tehran, Rasht, Mashhad and Tabriz in the northern half of the country is more than 2 degrees in the spring. Although in the spring, the northern part of the country has not yet been influenced by the tallest grassroots dominance. Therefore, such an increase in the average of the minimum temperatures of these stations can be justified in view of the abovementioned cases in the increase of the average maximum temperature. The average temperature increase in summer is slower but is faster regarding the mean minimum temperature; therefore, the range of average mainimin and maximum is declined. Study of 20% above and below average of the maximum and minimum temperature of spring and summer in the two 30 years’ period indicate that frequency and occurrence of the hot spell during the second 30-year period is more than firs 30-years period. The average maximum temperature in spring has a direct effect on the average summer temperature, and therefore, on the experience of the maximum temperature corresponding to spring. The study of the average minimum temperature is also consistent with global warming and confirms the occurrence of climate change in Iran. The mid-term maximum temperature also indicates an increase in most of the stations. According to what mentioned above, hot nights can increase the risk of terrain events in the country as a result of reducing the range of temperature changes during night, and as a result, can increase the vulnerability of the people to economic, social and environmental problems.

Nowadays, considering the fact that because of damaging natural events, every agricultural activity faces dangers, planning to decrease risks and increase investment security ratio is essential and unavoidable. This study is an applied survey, it uses field study, and the data was collected by the use of questionnaires. The studied statistical population was 33046 rural families out of which 253 families were selected according to Cochrane’s formula. The share of each one of the ten villages in the central and Baharan regions was determined according to their populations. Then, the questionnaires were distributed among the families by the use of random simple/systematic method. The data was analyzed and measured by the use of tests such as correlation analysis (Ki Score and Spearman), Kruskal Wallis and variance analysis in SPSS environment. The achieved results show that there is up to 99% significant relationship between agricultural activities risk management with most of the environmental elements and with natural disasters such as drought, flood, cold, etc. In addition to that, risk management has been effective on the productivity of agricultural activities, and consequently, on biological quality improvement of rural families. The effectiveness level of the environmental factors and natural disasters on agricultural risk management in the plain rural areas, mountainous areas and hillsides of Gorgan has significant difference up to 99%. Accordingly, presenting key solutions to decrease risk before guaranteed purchase of crops, crops insurance, paying facilities to farmers, holding training and propagation courses are inevitable.

Nowadays, most governments try to learn more about their risk management procedures so that, in the case of any damage caused by drought, they can reduce the adverse impacts.
This study aims to reduce the vulnerability of farmers against drought impacts with an emphasis on risk management. Questionnaires and interviews were used to collect the data. The questionnaires were distributed in fifteen villages. SPSS software was used for data analysis, the hierarchical technique of AHP for prioritization of strategies and the Prometea model for ranking the villages in the risk management framework. The study population consisted of 4463 households living in the rural city of Zarrindasht. Out of this population, a sample of 360 heads of families were selected by a simple random sampling. The validity of the questionnaire was assessed by scientific and administrative experts, and Cronbach's alpha was used to assess its reliability, which turned out to be 67 percent. The results indicated that the drought risk management approach can reduce the vulnerability of agriculture. This approach can reduce the economic, social and environmental consequences of draught in rural areas through mitigating the damages caused.

Nowadays many of governments, don’t give a lot of credit to developed organizations and seek better risk management. The present study aimed to investigate the role of drought risk management in reducing the vulnerability of socio-economic in rural settlements of nagadeh.In the analysis of Friedman test methods, T one sample, path analysis and Pearson correlation coefficient was used.The results showed that the vulnerability of rural settlements have seen the most demage after the occurrence of drought and risk management based on economic, social and socio-economic aspects could have an important effect in reducing rural vulnerability with average of 3.75. on basis of path analysis economic and socio- economic aspects of risk management with /528 - /363 coefficient have direct impact and social aspects have indirect impact in reducing economic and social vulnerability with /198 coefficient. Therefore, it can be inferred that drought risk management as the most sensible approach is to reduce vulnerability and at the operational level should be done participatory, flexible and Situational