جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "چهارمحال و بختیاری" در نشریات گروه "جغرافیا"

The purpose of the current research is to recognize the obstacles encountered in the advancement of urban tourism within the regions of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. The ongoing investigation is grounded on a qualitative approach alongside content scrutiny. The demographic under scrutiny comprises professionals hailing from the academic and organizational sectors. A series of semi-structured, open-ended interviews were carried out with a total of 12 individuals. The gathered interviews underwent a thorough review and assessment in order to delineate open codes, revise and remove codes that were alike, and designate categories pertaining to tourism challenges. Based on the findings derived from the qualitative analysis of 12 interviews, a total of 135 primary codes were identified. Through the process of merging and consolidating similar codes, over 117 primary concepts were extracted. Consequently, these codes gave rise to 29 dimensions. The difficulties associated with the advancement of urban tourism encompass a range of challenges, including inadequate transportation and communication networks, reliance on non-specialized personnel, scarcity of human resources, ineffective advertising strategies, deficient tourism infrastructure, insufficient investment, absence of a strategic plan, inadequate needs assessment protocols, lack of engagement from diverse sectors, failure to leverage successful practices, inadequate allocation of essential funds, inappropriate approach towards the region, inadequate security measures, seasonality of tourism, lack of information resources, inadequate training opportunities, cultural deficits, limited hospitality ethos, oversight of tourist attractions, subpar management practices, dearth of innovative approaches, unsatisfactory services, limited knowledge and understanding of tourism principles, underutilization of emerging technologies, marginalized role of tour guides, deficient comprehensive tourism strategies, disregard for environmental concerns, absence of a distinct tourism identity, and scarcity of tourism-related events.

Nowadays, nomadic tourism has become very important due to its connection with nature and local culture. The construction of nomadic tourism ecocamps is a clear example of planning in this field. In this regard, planning for its growth and development is essential.Purpose of the research: The purpose of this research is to identify and locate potential areas for nomadic tourism ecocamps in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari region.

The descriptive-analytical research method is based on spatial data and a questionnaire using the paired comparison method. The statistical community is made up of experts related to the subject, 30 of whom were selected to compare pairs of indicators using the AHP method. Algorithms in GIS were also used to draw maps and to locate areas prone to the construction of nomadic ecocamps. The research indicators are height, slope, soil, land use and cover, proximity to water sources, distance from protected areas, distance from fault line, distance from landslide, average annual temperature, average annual precipitation, proximity to communication road, Proximity to the city, proximity to the village, population density.Geographical area: The geographical area of the research is the nomadic areas of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province.Findings and

The most important criterion for the establishment of a tourism ecocamp is proximity to water sources with an importance factor of 0.148. After that, indicators of proximity to the communication road with an importance factor of 0.130; Land use with a weight of 0.109 and distance from landslides with a score of 0.096 are known.

The results showed that 10 ecocamps including Chelgerd, Shermak, Hirgan, Sheikh Alikhan, Shaleel, Samsami, Barz, Qala Madrasa, Maze Sokhte and Keri Beniche can be designed and planned for the development of nomadic tourism in this region.

Today, the water crisis has become one of the most fundamental problems for third world countries. The process of reducing the amount of fresh water resources in these countries has made them and the whole world seriously concerned about the fact that the world may move towards water-based wars. Despite the consequences and effects of the water crisis in the environment and even the social space (such as the local and regional conflicts in some provinces of Iran), still, the necessary attention, sensitivity and concern among the general public and even experts and policymakers has not emerged as it should. The expansion of the water crisis in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari has the potential to become an almost widespread ethnic and local conflict with its neighboring regions. The water crisis can increase the gaps at the ethnic-local and regional level and threaten the stability and security of the ruling political system. In the meantime, the occurrence of social unrest caused by unemployment, local-regional conflicts over water distribution and obtaining a greater share of water, lack of drinking water and related concerns should not be overlooked. Each of the above cases has the possibility of leading to an independent crisis or to a base for the emergence of security crises. This study aims to analyze scenarios of security consequences of water crisis in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province it is based on the systematic investigation of factors influencing the water crisis in particular, it has identified the effective security challenges, alternative and possible scenarios and futures and further, according to the existing situation, based on the influencing factors and the current gap with the optimal to critical state, provide management strategies and necessary measures to achieve the most desirable and compatible scenarios.

The current research is "applied-theoretical" in terms of purpose and based on the nature and method; It is "descriptive-analytical". In this research, based on the nature of the work, quantitative and qualitative methods were used to analyze information and extract indicators. To structural analysis and identify the effective security drivers of the water crisis from the method of cross impact analysis (MicMac software) and for scenario writing the cross-impact balance analysis method (ScenarioWizard software) was used. The statistical population of the current research was academic experts, experts and institutional-organizational managers who have enough knowledge and experience in the topic of water crisis management and the study area. These experts were selected and questioned based on the method of "purposive sampling (expert samples) and chain-referral. In this regard, based on the possibility of willingness to respond to experts and the complexity of the methods, steps and conditions of implementing the Delphi technique, in total of (32) academic experts, managers and institutional-organizational experts were chosen as sample people.

Structural analysis method was used to identify the effective drivers of water crisis security in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. In this regard, the findings of the method of structural analysis of the factors and challenges affecting the water crisis and its consequences in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province showed (13) the drivers of "water governance, inter-basin water transfer projects, local and regional tensions and conflicts, political discrimination, political authority of the government, migration, poverty and deprivation, social capital, unemployment, psychological security, social trust, social cohesion, participation of local institutions, public participation" based on the priority of effectiveness. The most important drivers of security are the water crisis. After identifying the security drivers of the water crisis, to analyze and select the scenarios of the security drivers of the water crisis, the mutual effects cross-impact balance analysis method was used using Scenario Wizard software which is one of the best methods that allows the detection of believable scenarios. According to the size of the matrix and its dimensions (39 x 39), with the help of the scenario wizard software and based on the questionnaire data, the number of (1594323) combined scenarios that include all possible situations were analyzed, the output of this analysis was the extraction of "446 possible scenarios" and "13 believable scenarios", including: "9 scenarios with high compatibility" and "4 strong scenarios". among the thirteen believable scenarios, the largest number of believable scenarios (8 scenarios) are in the yellow (static) spectrum. Also, the results showed that there are four strong scenarios with internal consistency (one scenario with favorable situations and 3 scenarios with critical situations) in front of the security challenges of the water crisis in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province. From the total of four strong scenarios in the security challenges of water crisis management, the first scenario represents favorable situations, and the tenth, twelfth and thirteenth scenarios represent critical situations in the upcoming conditions of each of the security drivers of the water crisis. Therefore, with the continuation of the current trend and the lack of effective strategies, not only will there not be a better situation in the management of the water crisis, but the expansion of the existing gap will lead to the emergence of the worst possible scenario "scenario 13" with critical situations in all factors.

According to the findings of the research, the problems and tensions of water scarcity, the red alarm of the crisis and water shortage has sounded in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, and this crisis will intensify with the continuation of the current trend. "Weak water governance, incorrect allocation of water resources, non-compliance with the rights of the origin regions of inter-basin water transfer projects and the dominance of more influential and powerful regions" to intensify local and regional tensions and conflicts over water resources and the increase of social gap and political, social and managerial conflicts and general discontent has resulted; thus, according to the results of the research and the conditions governing the current situation of the security challenges of water crisis management in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, the most favorable scenario for prospective management of water crisis security challenges, selecting the drivers of the first scenario based on 13 ideal situations and the best leading scenario to improve the situation governing the security challenges of the water crisis will be in the framework of optimal water governance so that by making appropriate decisions and applying strategies in front of each of the key drivers, to manage the challenges arising from the water crisis, especially the security challenges. Investigation of possible impacts and scenarios of water crisis shows that by considering the driving condition of main factors and their interaction, the probability of encountering with crisis and water stress is more likely than optimistic probability. As the crisis situations and existing trends show, facing this crisis is inevitable; thus, in the long term or in the short term in the coming years, many rural areas and most urban areas will be heavily involved with this issue as the water stress situation worsens. In this regard, the water crisis is a serious issue and requires a quick solution, which seems to be the optimal solution to pay attention and focus on the factors and challenges that cause the critical situation and water shortage in the province.

Introduction:

 A historical review of the evolution of demographic developments and livelihood changes in rangeland users could help to better understand the desired strategies. It could also provide livelihood alternatives and feasible policy frameworks in order to improve rangeland status and overcome crises and challenges facing sustainable rangeland management.

Purpose of the research: 

 In line with tribal affairs and the status of their rangeland-dependent livelihoods, four main aims are examined. First, a historical assessment of the evolution of demographic changes is presented (1). Subsequently, livestock production systems are described (2). Then, the situation of rangeland-dependent livelihoods in Iran is explained (3). Finally, while presenting the livelihood perspective in Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari province and in particular, Bazaft, suggestions for sustainable rangelands management are presented (4).

Methodology :

This paper evaluates the data and information of historical periods by reviewing historical sources in the field of pastoralists livelihoods and tribal affairs of Iran.Geographical area of research Demographic changes and livelihood developments of rangeland users, and by reviewing sources in the field of rangeland management, the paper evaluates the data and information of periods.

The results of summarizing and reviewing the resources show that the imbalance between humans, livestock and rangeland and reducing the share of livestock products are the main challenges of sustainable rangeland management in Iran.

In this regard, it is necessary to pay attention to a comprehensive perspective that could use all the potentials of the region for sustainable rangeland management. Sustainable rangeland management would be achieved while maintaining a balance between livestock, rangeland and humans to a variety of livelihoods in order to develop the complementary livelihoods of rangeland users in planning and policy making. Future studies could explain the shortcomings (weaknesses) of policy in the context of sustainable rangeland management and then, develop a policy-oriented livelihood framework.

One of the important issues in water resources management is the estimation of rainfall in areas where pregnancy has not been done. Due to the lack of complete coverage of the rain measuring stations, it is necessary to estimate the rainfall in the areas between the stations. . Estimation of unknown data at different points is done using interpolation methods on the measured data in the studied area. For this purpose, different methods are used to analyze spatial dataIn this research, a variety of common methods of interpolation and geostatistics have been used to estimate the average annual rainfall parameter of Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari province. The statistics used are the statistics of 44 rain gauge stations for the period from 1980 to 2008. . Due to the extreme changes in the topography of the study area, the effect of altitude on the distribution of precipitation as a barrier against the spread of clouds has also been investigated. For this purpose, interpolation was calculated with various models and a prediction map was drawn. Then, using the mutual evaluation method, the square root of the errors and the error of the maps were estimated and one map was selected as the appropriate map The obtained results show that for the interpolation of the average annual rainfall methods that considered the heights as obstaclesThey show higher accuracies in the studied area, among which the fourth and fifth degree polynomial models showed the most suitable information for interpolation of average annual rainfall values

Annual precipitation forecasting usually guarantees success in sustainable management of water resources and watersheds in cases like determination of rain-fed and water cultivation area and water resources consumption planning. Although precipitation does not follow a specified pattern; however, it has a correlation with some climatic parameters. If these parameters were easy to find, simple applicable models could be developed to predict annual precipitation. One of the simplest methods for predicting annual precipitation is regression models. The block box models such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) has also been used for precipitation forecasting.  This study was an attempt to predict annual precipitation using some climatic parameters by multiple linear regression and ANN models.  

Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari and Yazd provinces are located in the southwestern and central part of Iran with semi-arid and arid climate, respectively. Mean annual precipitation of these two provinces are 560 and 110 mm, respectively. Meteorological data of the weather stations belong to 2001-2011 in Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari and 2003-2013 in Yazd province; respectively, were analyzed. Various parameters were calculated for predicting annual precipitation using long-term daily precipitation and temperature data of the meteorological stations. Among the parameters, total precipitation in the first half of the water year (R6m, mm), time to 47.5 mm cumulative precipitation since the beginning of autumn (t47.5, day), long-term mean annual precipitation (Rm, mm), average summer temperature of the preceding water year (Tsu, °C) and average temperature of preceding summer and current autumn of water year (Tsu.au, °C) that had a high correlation with annual precipitation, were used in multiple linear regression (MLR) models and artificial neural network (ANN) techniques. normalize mean square error (NRMSE) and degree of agreement (d) were used to evaluate accuracy of the models for predicting annual precipitation.

Results showed that the obtained MLR models were significant at a probability level of less than 0.01. Results also showed that both methods (MLR and ANNN) could accurately estimate the annual precipitation. Evaluation and verification of the models with NRMSE values less than 0.3 and d values greater than 0.8 confirmed the performance of the models. The best topology of the ANN network in the study was a multiple layer perceptron network with one hidden layer and two neurons and sigmoidal activation function. The findings of the study support the fact that higher temperature in summer and autumn was a sign of higher and lower annual precipitation in Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari and Yazd Provinces, respectively. Besides, higher time period to 47.5 mm cumulative precipitation from the beginning of autumn implies fewer amount of annual precipitation.  

This study showed that annual precipitation could be predicted by MLR and ANN methods in both arid and semi-arid regions with acceptable accuracy. According to the results, a rainy water year will be expected continuing a warmer summer and autumn in Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari Province; however, there will be a dry water year in Yazd Province followed by these conditions. Furthermore, if 47.5 mm cumulative precipitation takes a longer time since the beginning of autumn annual precipitation will decrease.

Geotourism has received a lot of attention as a branch of tourism in recent years and can be considered as one of the important pillars in the development of regions. Due to the importance of the issue, in the present study, the geomorphosites of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province have been evaluated. This research is based on descriptive-analytical methods and has been done in several stages. In the first stage, the geosites of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province have been identified using library studies, interviews and questionnaires. In the second stage, geosites have been evaluated using the Comanescu method, and finally, in the third stage, based on the obtained results, the potential geosites of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province have been identified. The results show that among the geosites of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, Gandoman wetland geosite has the highest score with a total of 83 points. After this geosite, Spring Koohrang geosite with 82, Choghakhor wetland with 81 and Inverse Laleh plain with 78 points have the highest score. According to the above-mentioned cases, the geosites of Gandman wetland, Koohrang spring, Choghakhor wetland and Inverse Laleh plains have been selected as valuable geosites of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, which need special attention.

Country divisions are referred to as the process of dividing the country into smaller units, in order to facilitate its administration, distribution of facilities and public services, control over land space and facilitate the exercise of state sovereignty. In other words, every government has the inevitability of managing its territorial territory and exploiting it, boosting the talents and capabilities of the regions, creating favorable conditions for improving the economic, social, political and ... state and security of the country. Divide into smaller units. Based on this, the present study is applied in terms of its purpose and is a survey in terms of its implementation. The information gathering method in this research is a web-based and field-based library method, and a descriptive-analytical survey method has been used in terms of how the results are processed and interpreted and in accordance with the qualitative strategy. Accordingly, the present study seeks to answer the following questions: What are the factors affecting the promotion of levels of country divisions in the cities of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari? The results indicate that in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, factors such as deprivation and underdevelopment of the region, geographical location and natural status of the province, remoteness and poor access of villagers to service centers and ... have played a role in national divisions.

The purpose of this study is analyzing the climate changing effects on almond phenology as a region with severe temperature fluctuation in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari and province. For this purpose in this study, small-scale model SDSM and large-scale data of atmospheric general circulation canESM2 used. Daily minimum, maximum temperature data, and precipitation in the statistical period of 30 years (1985-2015) for 4 stations used as a basic data. And with using the SDSM model and general circulation under 2 scenario RCP4.5 and 8.5 from 2020-2050 compared with current amounts and its changes was evaluated. The results showed that the height factor had an important role in changing climatic elements and consequently temporal changes of almond phonological stages in the study region. Analyzing the reviewed scenarios showed that by affecting the climate changing, almond cultural calendar change and dates of crop phonological stages will happen sooner. Also the growth period decrease; due to warming up the region and early completion degree of required growth days. Special pattern of phonological stages changing showed that in both scenarios changes rates are more in the southern parts of the province and amounts changes decrease to the north. As regards in the forecasting period, the flowering stage occurs sooner and it coincides with the late spring frost of an almond tree. And because this stage is sensitive to cold, care proceedings should be increased. The results showed that in the regions which phonological stages occur sooner, the Impressionability of almond cultivation phonological stages is more from climate changing. In the province’s southern regions the phonological stages occur sooner than other parts. And these regions have a greater impact from climate change.

Introduction:

Religious tourism is one of the significant areas of world tourism. Religious tourism is very important field of tourism and climate problems or bad weather, it will not be prevented. Religious tourism is as old as the history of religious culture. According to the World Tourism Organization studies each year 600 million people travel by motives of religious and spiritual.Today more and more countries seeking to develop tourism as a major source of employment and income. religious tourism is vital in Iran and has important role in many travels. The vast country of Iran, with a great variety of cultures that has led to the formation of various customs throughout the country, has many religious attractions, monuments, shrines and holy sites, in addition to having various attractions, everywhere it is Has been conducive to the development of religious tourism. Total Imamzadeh Iran is 8051 cases. In addition, 33 Prophets are buried in the country, who are part of the Prophets who have a special position with the Shiites. from total Imam Zadeh, seven percent in rural areas, 23 percent in urban areas, 18 percent in mountainous areas, and others in roads and desert areas. Among the provinces of the country, Fars province with 14%, followed by Mazandaran with 12% of the first and second ranked number of Imam Zadeh. The Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province also has a total of 1% of Imam Zadegan.One of the most important centers in religious tourism is Emamzadeh Hamze Ali in Chaharmahal And bakhtiaree province. And accept a lot of tourist every year. These tourists have various impacts in some levels such as economical , social , environmental and physical level. Now the question is what is the sustainability of this center and where is located this center in the life cycle of tourism.Methodology The aim of this study is applied and method is descriptive and analytical . and aims is assess the impact of tourism sustainability in Emamzadeh Hamze Ali. The study population consisted of tourists and pilgrims that visit the holy shrine. The total volume of tourists and pilgrims that visit the shrine during the year is about 600,000 people. Most viewed is in the months of June, July, August and September . The average daily page views this month about 4,000 people, and other months of the year about 500 people. The total sample size of torists are 350 cases according to Cochran formula. The variables of this study used via identified the experience of other similar studies and surveys of experts. The total levels of study are 4 levels (economical , social , environmental and physical) and the total variables are more than 50 cases.

Respondent information: Of the total number of respondents, 61 percent were men and 39 percent were women. For the duration of their stay, 73% of these tourists were daily tourists, with 27% of tourists staying overnight. The origin of these tourists is 65% of Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province, 19% of Isfahan province, 9% of Khuzestan province and 7% of other provinces. Also, 11% were illiterate, 23% elemental, 40% diploma and 26% bachelor and higher. The mean age was also 20% 18-29 years old, 42% 30-49 years old, and 38% 50 years old.To assess dimensions of sustainable development, information gathered from classified to prepare and insert into models of sustainability assessment process .we used 63 variable to assess sustainability at the destination. some of these variables includes: Creating jobs, Buy agricultural products by tourists, Indigenous employment in the tourism sector, Access to credit and banking services, Spreading handicrafts, Private sector investment , Improved facilities and educational services, Improvement of cultural facilities and services, Promote the standard of living of people Addiction, Theft, crime, Respecting the guest, Attention to the local culture of the people, Local community satisfaction from tourism, Participation of local residents in planning, Interaction between tourists and the host community, Rural migration, Protecting the Imam Zadeh Cultural Heritage, Quality of access routes, Communication development, Access to Healthy and Healthy Drinking Water, Access to the proper sanitary, Suitable mobile coverage, Tourists access to therapeutic space, Access to commercial spaces, Access to parking and ….The study of economic variables shows that things like seasonality of tourism revenues, rising costs, and economic inequality are not good and are in an unstable and almost unstable situation. In the social dimension, addiction, theft, and delinquency are the worst of all. In the environmental dimension, about 75% of the variables are unstable or almost unstable, the worst of which is the loss of drinking water and agriculture, pressure on resources, and environmental degradation. In the physical dimension, road accidents, access to sanitation and health care services have the worst condition than other variables. based on the analysis performed , the highest stability is related to social sustainability ( 5.13 value) and this level of sustainable development is medium condition. After that physical sustainability is in the next rank (4.97 value) . the least sustainability is related to environmental level (3.71 value) and after that is economical level (4.34 value). In general, all aspects of sustainable development is evaluated in intermediate level (4.6 value).

In total, according to the survey, of all respondents, the sustainability of Emamzadeh Hamze Ali is in medium level and especially in environmental sustainability the condition is bad and planning for having a suitable condition in this center is very essential. In Butler tourism life cycle model this center is in the second atage . In the this stage, people engaging and has action. This phase is to increase tourism activities and the number of tourists started to increase. Usually tourists stay shorter time but more people to come to a place. Tourism businesses are starting to build a professional services and facilities. Small hotels and places to eat is under construction.

High tourism abilities in nomadic areas is very essential for development of this country. in this regard, the location of suitable tourism spaces plays an important role in other stages of nomadic tourism planning. the goal of this article is select the best places for nomad tourism in Charmahal and Bakhtiaree province with use of AHP, Topsis model and GIS. the method of this research is descriptive and analytical and the type of research is functional. to locate the spaces, use some layers such as access to Ilrah, distance to the nomadic settlements, distance to the tourist attractions of the province, access to water, electricity, road network and etc. according to classification 10 sites select in province and these sits include : Chelgerd (0.816 score) , Shalil ( 0.630 score) , Barz (0.541 score) , Gale madrese ( 0.478 score) , Samsami (0.426 score) , Shikh alikhan(0.423 score), Maze sokhte ( 0.420 score) , Hiregan (0.381 score) , kori chahar bonicheh ( 0.374 score) and Sharmak (0.266 score). based on this prioritization other stages of the development of tribal tourism development in this province can be based on the equipment and planning of these sites.

The present study has two major purposes; the first of which is the identification of the key propellants in the essence of the brand of target tourism villages of Saman County in Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari Province, and the second purpose is prioritizing of the effective key propellants in the essence of the brand of target tourism villages of Saman County in Chahar Mahal and Bakhtiari Province.
Design/methodology/approach: This study is an applied one, and data are collected using a descriptive-survey method. To collect data, three types of questionnaires have been used for three groups of the local community, visitors, and experts. According to Morgan table, the sample size of the visitors and the local community are 384 samples, and 365 examples, respectively, and the sample size of the experts, with Delphi technique, was 25. To analyze the samples, one-sample T-test and Mann-Whitney U-Test using SPSS software and structural analysis (paired squares) using MICMAC software were used.
Findings: The results of this research showed that the most effective key propellants in the essence of the brand of target tourism villages of Saman County in priority order are, 1. gardens, 2. water-based tourism, 3. place attachment, 4. plants and animals species, 5. the opportunity for relaxing, 6. beautiful landscapes, 7. rural accommodations.
Research Limitations/Implications: The high cost of the research and the required time to fill out the questionnaires, with regard to the extent of the study area, were among the main challenges facing the present study.
Originality/Value: The present study is looking for a model and method for making a sustainable brand that not only give identity to the local community but also it is attractive to tourists and fulfills experts’ views. So, the present model has the mentioned features.

  Climate has a key role in plant growth Therefore, it is clear that climate change will directly effect on sowing and harvesting of cultivate crops (FAO, 2013). Many scientists used APSIM to simulate the phenology and yield of canola. To understand the impact of climate change it is necessary to project the future climate based on different emission scenarios. These results must be combined with simulation models to predict crop yield and phenological stages. Assessment the impact of climate change on phenology and yield of agricultural crops in different regions show different results. The aim of this study was to investigate the impact of climate change on phenological stages and yield of Canola by APSIM-canola modules. Chaharmahl va bakhtiari in the southwestern of Iran is one of the main agricultural production zones is considered as the highest province of Iran. The soil physical properties were obtained from Agricultural Research center of Farokhshahr. Required meteorological data including precipitation, solar radiation, and daily maximum and minimum temperature were collected from 6 synoptic weather station in the study area. Data was used after quality control process. The meteorological data convert to compatible text format with APSIM.
Biometric data and phenology:Canola has several varieties. Okapi is one of the winter varieties which was recommended for the study area. Agrometeorological data, including phenology and biometry from 2001 to 2010 were gathered and summarized. Includes the canola yield and phenological stages containing planting, germination, emergence, the first true leaf, rosette, stop the growth of winter, budding, stem elongation, flowering, pod, ripening and harvesting. Farm management information such as the amount of fertilizer, irrigation and frost and pest were also recorded. A total of 1700 reported of phenological stages was used over the 10 years of crop evaluation.
Future climate data:Climate change data were downloaded from one of The World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) project so called Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX). We used CORDEX MENA data in which the simulations were performed on a rotated grid with the pole at 180°W longitude and 90°N latitude.The domain covers roughly the region from about 27°W to 76°E longitude and 7°S to 45°N latitude. Simulations were carried out using two different resolutions: 0.44° (approx. 50 km) and 0.22° (approx. 25 km).
Model Description:Agricultural Production Systems Simulator (APSIM) known as a highly advanced simulator agricultural systems in the world. There are 43 selectable varieties of spring and winter canola on APSIM v 7.7, but none of them cultivated in the study area. Germination, emergence, end of juvenile phase, flower initiation, flowering, grain filling and maturating are seven simulation of the phenological stages. For simulation of each phonological stage, elapsed time from sowing to the first day of reaching at each stage was counted. Water stress, nutrition, photoperiod, and vernalization have influence on the phenological stages (Zhang et al., 2014).
Highest RMSE was calculated in the simulation of days after sowing to maturity (DTM) stage with 5 days and bias error was -0.7 days. Greatest bias error occurred in simulation of days after sowing to emergence (DTE). The correlation coefficient of the DTG and DTE was not statistically significant and this indicator in the other stages (P-Value = 0.01) is significant. The strongest correlation was obtained between observed and simulation of days after sowing to flower initiation (DTFI) and days after sowing to flowering (DTFL).
Because of the crop management, soil and water conditions, simulation was done in three cases of poor, middle and high management. The RMSE in estimating of yield was 329.8 kg/ha which included 7.2% of canola average yield on study area. The rate of Bias error was18.2 kg and correlation between actual and simulated data were 0.96. We consider every year Farm management, nutrient and irrigation in the simulation and results showed that APSIM has reliability skill in simulation
Based on scenario RCP8.5, considering : DTE, DTFI, DTFL, DTEGF and DTM stages will be reduce between 1 to 13 days the maximum reduction can be seen in the flowering and grain filling phases. However DTEJ will be raise and longer10 days.
The results of data from RCP4.5 showed that DTFL and DTEGF stages, will decrease from 2 to 3 days, the greatest rate of decline was observed in the flowering period. DTEJ, DTFI and DTM stages will rise. DTFI and DTM stages will be increased up to 3 day. And similar to RCP8.5, DTEJ will be raised up to 9 days. It is expected that with RCP8.5 scenario the average of yield on the optimal nutrition and management will be increased around 18%. Whereas in poor management conditions the yield will be increased 18 and 13.6 percent respectively.
RCP 4.5 in optimal nutrition and management will be inceased13.4% and in intermediate and poor management will raise around 14.3 and 13.6 percent. This suggests that without water limit, global warming will have a positive impact on canola yield in this area. The study showed, APSIM could simulate the yield of canola with RMSE 320 kg/ha. Results showed that with RCP8.5, phenological stages including of DTE, DTFL and DTEGF and DTM will be shorten. with RCP4.5 phenological stages including of DTFL and DTEGF will be shorten The higher rate of decline was observed by RCP 8.5 scenario. DTEJ on RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 will be respectively longer 10 days and 9 days. It is expected that ,canola yield will be risen with both studied scenarios in optimum nutrition is about18%, in average more than 13 percent and on low nutrient up to 18 percent.
Canola-Okapi yield increasing outlook in rejoin of Iran show a good potential on planting of this variety and this product will be develop on 2030 horizon

Introduction One-sided, unbalanced and unplanned development of cities, population and activity in the area, has many of the country's capacity left useless and has a lot of problems at different levels imposed planners (ahmadi et.al,1389: 94). In order to achieve sustainable development, describing and assessment of the state of the environment and resources, is necessary before any planning (movahhed, 1385: 11) Tourism, especially ecotourism is also no exception. Ecological potential assessment of tourism areas to use have been identified as a tool to achieve sustainable development (jowzi et al,1388:71). In order to achieve sustainable development, land planning is essential that the infrastructure of this planning is environmental assessment. Ecological potential assessment, measurement and potential of land with clear and pre-planned criteria. In this regard, from the 1960s, the geographic information system is established a tangible progress in the spatial planning of land use to accelerate the development of various methods for determination of land ability for different uses. As far as, now, using methods to assessment and the appropriateness of area in GIS now, is allocated a central position to itself, in the management of resources and natural area (jafari et al, 1390: 35).
In this study is tried to define ecotourism potential using assessment of Environmental Ecological potential in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province to provide a dynamic setting for the development of the region. Therefore because of an abundance of natural attractions such as wetlands, lakes, waterfalls, springs, rivers, mountains and peaks, caves, plains and forests, as well as historical- cultural attractions, such as bridges, villages and castles, there is a great potential to attract many visitors. In this study is attempted with the using of GIS and ecological potential assessment model for establishment of tourism in the region, the potential can be investigated. The necessity and importance of this research is the fact that despite the unique characteristics of the province, especially in terms of nature, which can be play a more active role in the economic, social and cultural area, unfortunately these diverse and valuable attractions, less attention has been paid to this attractions so with a good planning and suitable using of available resources, the region can be developed sustainably.
Meterial & Methods In Makhdoom systemic approach, ecological tourism model is provided for intensive and extensive outing (firoozi et al, 1392: 159). At this stage, by using collected data in the phases of analysis and conclusions in the environmental units with ecological models built for the user, the most appropriate activities is selected. Based on the results of investigations in Iran and the countries that are ecologically similar to Iran A set of ecological models have been produced in Iran which can be compared and measured ecological information about the model and determine the type of actions should be taken. The model used to determine the usages of the ecological models of agriculture - pasture, forestry, rural-, urban-industrial development, ecotourism, intensive tourism and aquaculture (Makhdoom, 1385: 185-212). This study seeks to find areas suitable for ecotourism (suitable Class A, suitable Class B and inappropriate). Therefore, suitable areas for loading the proposed activities appropriate to the potential of the region's stability have been identified taking into account variables such as slope, rock and soil, aspect, water, plants, climate and weather also preparation of needed maps.
Result &Discussion In order to determine the ecological potential for ecotourism development in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province, according to the preference of parameters in terms of importance in Makhdoom model (makhdoom, 1380: 203) first, slope map was developed in 9 classes using digital elevation model map and using the capabilities of ArcGIS. In the next stage, soil and rock condition was evaluated and the map was prepared. After determining the soil groups in the province, suitable areas for ecotourism class A, with suitable soil which is placed in Inceptisoils category, was separated. Climate is another factor considered in the assessment of ecological potential. In this context, the average temperature in warm period in the province is calculated. Since proper temperature during warm period for extensive recreation class A is 21-25 degrees Celsius, this feature was introduced in the attribute table. The next parameter is the number of sunny days. For extensive recreation class A for spring and summer seasons, the number of sunny days have to be more than 15 days per month. The last parameter is water. For extensive recreation class A, water level must be 5-12 liters per person. Citing the fact that the province, in terms of water resources is rich and has good precipitation, water levels parameter in the province was considered desirable.
In the last stage, all obtained maps, are mutually overlaid and finally, a map is obtained which all the necessary conditions for an extensive recreation class A are introduced in, and shows all the suitable areas for extensive tourism.
Conclusion After overlaying Maps and finishing ecological potential assessment process, it was found that a rather wide region of the province is suitable for developing ecotourism. According to calculations carried out, about 32.1961 square kilometers of the province is found suitable for extensive recreation (class A), the city LORDEGAN has the largest share of the relevant regions and the city BOROUJEN has the lowest share, respectively.

Introduction Climate change will affect the availability of water resources and the sustainability of their management. The impact of climate change on water resources has caused concerns and serious challenges around the world. Global climate change has decreased water resources in many regions and especially in arid and semi arid regions such as Iran. Water shortages decrease both agricultural production and food security and can also limit the economic development and ecosystem health. Also, there is growing evidence that climate change is changing the hydrological cycle.
Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari is the main supplier of water for Khuzestan and Isfahan provinces and inter-basin water transfer talk has always been for these two provinces. However, there is not a comprehensive study on river discharge changes in this province and we cannot judge about the future water transfer. In the Iran, there have been several studies about the seasonal changes in precipitation and other climatic variables but assessments of river ows are limited. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to document statistically significant trends in seasonal and annual changes in stream flow in the main rivers in Chaharmahal-Bakhtiari.
Materials&Methods The total monthly and seasonal streamflow time series for the period 1358–1389 (32 years) corresponding to 12 hydrometric stations across the Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari province are obtained from the Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari Regional Water Organization. This study is done with latest data (1389) published by Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari Regional Water Organization. At the first, the linear trends are determined on annual and seasonal timescales, using Mann–Kendall (MK) non-parametric trend tests.The non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests are based on the calculation of Kendall's tau between two samples, which is itself based on the ranks with the samples. This test have been widely used to detect trends in series of environmental data, climate data or hydrological data, because it is less sensitive to the non-normality of the distribution and less affected by extreme values or outliers in the series.Also, the magnitude of trend, if a linear trend is present in a timeseries, is estimated by using the non-parametric Sen’ estimator test. The Sen’ estimator method is commonly used for calculating the trend slope. Thus, in this study this method is also used to calculate the trend slopes to obtain the extent of trend changes.
A number of methods can be applied to determine change points of a time series. In this study, the change point in the stream flow time series in 12 studied hydrometric stations is identified by Pettitt’s test. This test is a non-parametric approach for detecting change points based on the mann-whitney test. It has been demonstrated that the Pettitt’s test is a useful technique for examining the occurrence of abrupt changes in climatic records.
Results&Discussion The results of the non-parametric Mann-Kendall tests (MK) for all studied rivers through the Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari province showed a decreasing trend in the stream flow in all 12 hydrometric stations for both seasonal and annual scale. The amount of reduction based on the Sen’ estimator method, varies at different stations and seasons, from 0.8 m3/s to 17 m3/s in Gordbysheh and Beheshtabad, respectively. On seasonal scale the results indicate a significant reduction in stream flow of all stations in summer, while in winter, except at two stations (Deh- Cheshmh and Soulegan) significant trend was not observed. The results of Pettitt's test also suggesting, the abrupt downward change (statistically significant) in most studied stations occurs in the early 1370s. On the other words, in two recent decades a significant decreasing trend in stream flow is occurred in Karon and Zayandeh Rood Basin. The results also showed that in addition to the mean of stream flow, the extreme values of stream flow in these revers also experience a very sharp decries during the studied period.
Conclusion Decreasing trend in all studied hydrometric stations through the Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari province clearly shows the reduction of water resources in this province and also the reduction of the role of the province in water supply to the country. The abrupt downward change that occurs in the early 1370s in most studied hydrometric stations is also show that the reduction of water production in the province have started from about 20 years ago. Therefore, for any water transfer plan from this province to other regions the practical principles should be considered. Another important issue that must be considers is that the water resources in Chaharmahal- Bakhtiari province is sharply decreasing and the water plants should not be based on the old information.

In this study, by using the Mann-Kendall nonparametric method and Sen' s Estimator slope test, the trend of some elements including precipitation, average of maximum and minimum temperature and the number of snowy days Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province covers part of Zagros and Zardkohe-Bakhtiari highlands, from which three major rivers including Zayandehrud, Dez and Karun originate. in an annual and monthly scale, was evaluated in the stations of the province during a period of 30 years (1986-2015). The output was presented in the form of tables, graphs and iso-trend maps as drawn in the Arc_GIS. The results showed that although changes in rainfall did not follow any specific trend in most months of the year, the amount of precipitation in the stations of Koohrang as the rainiest station in the Province, Lordegan and Yan-Cheshme had a decreasing trend at the significance level of 99%; also, the the number of snowy days during March showed a decreasing trend in Koohrang station. However, the average minimum and maximum temperature in most areas of the province, in both monthly and yearly scales, except for the months of November and December, had a significantly increasing trend.

Soil or relative percentage of sand, silt and clay reflects some texture characteristics such as permeability, water holding capacity, CEC, and soil behavior in return to the plow and other tillage operations is very important. The study area covers an area of 1715.4 hectares, near the Aiej soil dam, East of Jooneghan city, Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Province. For this study, 40 disturbed soil samples were collected from the area. Air dried samples were crushed and passed through a 2 mm sieve. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of lime removal on the particle size percentage of surface soils in some parts of studied area. In this study, tissue was determined by gauging Baykas. To evaluate the impact of the removal of lime on the soil components, Paired-Samples T-Test statistical method was used at level 0.05. The results showed that the removal of lime has a significant influence on the amounts of clay, silt and very fine sand particles, but does not have such a significant effect on the sand grains. Mechanical analysis of the soil after the removal of calcium carbonate also showed that very fine clay and sandy soils, significantly decreased, while the silt soils increase. Sand has not significantly changed. The problem can be solved with this assumption that the calcium carbonate clay and sand very fine soils are mostly dissolved within lime removal process. Therefore, the amount of clay and fine sand gains reduce, but the silt increases.

Iran is rich in renewable and unrenewable energy resources. Iran's geographical position makes it a great source of energiessuch as solar and wind power energy. Increasing of need to the energy, limitation of fuel burn resources, increasing of the environment pollution due to fuel burns consumption, global warming, acid rainfall defluxion, necessity of equipoise of carbon dioxide diffusion and reduction of fuel burn consumption have been increased pay attention to renewable energy resources. Among renewable energies, wind power is one the best resource to acquire electrical energy. This energy doesnt infect the environment.The conventional energy resources such as oil, natural gas, coal, or nuclear are finite and generate pollution. In contrast, the renewable energy sources like wind, solar, biomass and geothermal are clean and frequently available in nature.The wind as one of the bestfacile of renewable energies is very important for use instead of fossil fuels. Due to the uncertainty of the prediction of the energy production, it is important to have additional information about prone area to produce the electrical energy. Iran as a developing country needs to new sources of clean energy. Wind energy is very useful because of its low environmental impact and high sustainability. The mainly aim of this research is an assessment of wind power situation and an evaluation of wind energy potentialin Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province in Iran.
Data and The area under study of this research is Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province that is located at southern west of the country. This region covers 1% of total country area. Due to geographical and topographical characteristics, the climate condition is variable and there is different climate in this region. The annual precipitation is affected by Mediterranean systems and Soudan low pressure. Wind data used in this study were obtained at 10 meters above ground level from Iranian Meteorological Organization at three-hour intervals in 27 years statistical period.Wind speed and direction were averaged over tree-hour periods. Then, Data were arranged annually in Excel software. Wind measurements are available from 1988 to 2014. The wind speed was recorded in knots. Consequently, the data units were converted to m.s-1. Weibull probability distribution function was used to calculate the probability of the data. The frequencies of each wind velocity category were extracted at different times. For calculating the Weibull parameters, Ordinary Least Squares method was used. First Chi-square testwas performed for all stations of the study area. Then, the stationsthatdid not follow from Weibulldistribution were excluded. For calculating the Weibull parameters, Ordinary Results and DiscussionThe wind power potential in 10 meters height was obtained in Borujen, shaherkord andKoohrang200.12, 167.41,154.68 W.m-2,respectively. Results showed that wind power potential is increasing with heightinallstations. The resultssuggestthat, the potential forwind energyproduction in Borujen is more than Koohrang and Shahrekord stations.The highest wind power density at all three stations was obtained in winter.In annual scale, wind existence hours in Shahrekord, Borujen and Koohrang were obtained 3404.4, 3476.1 and 2775.6, respectively.Consequently, the highest wind existence hour in annual scale is related to Borujen station and the lowest wind existence hour is belonged to Koohrang station. The most important consequence of the study can be summarized as follows: 1) among the three selected station,Borujen is most suitable for electric wind production. 2) The Weibull distribution presented here showed a good fitness with the observed data. 3) Winter season have the highest wind power density. 4) January and March months are the two months that the average wind speeds are the highest over the year.
The obtained results of this research showed that between the selected stations, the highest Rated Wind velocity in annual scale is related to Borujen station. In this station, Rated Wind velocity in 10 and 50 meters reaches to 9.83 and 12.32 m.s-1, respectively.The lowestRated Wind velocity belonged to Koohrang station by 9.35 m.s-1 in 10m height. For this reason, Borujen city is an appropriate site to product of wind energy. Results also showed that the highest Probabilistic Wind velocity is related to Borujen station with values of 4.51 and 5.64 m.s-1 in the heights 10 and 50 m, respectively. It is important to note that wind velocity probability in the height between 2 to 150 m in Borujen and Shahrekord is more than Koohrang station. The highest wind density in 10 m height belonged to Borujen station. Results also showed that in three selected stations, the highest wind power density was obtained in winter season. In the monthly scale and in Shahrekord and Borujen stations, the highest wind power density were observed in March while in Koohrang was seen in January.

Recognizing talented areas of landslide phenomenon and ranking them as a main hazard in mountainous areas of Iran can be regarded as one of the primary steps in expansive and developing planning. In the present article the conditions of landslide in Chaharmahal Va Bakhtiari province are assessed by using TOPSIS and AHP models. In these methods the regarded choices are the townships of the province (Shahrekord, Koohrag, Farsan, Boroujen, Ardal and Lordegan) and the effective criterions are slope, the application of lands, geology components, height, water way's compression, annual precipitation and the distance from the road. After preparing necessary information layers in GIS area and giving mark to any effective criterions, the result of using mentioned models finally shows that the geology agent with the approximate weight of 0/2669 is the most important criterion and the compression index of water ways with the approximate weight of about 0/0192 is the least important criterion. Also checking the potential condition of landslide occurrence in the studied area indicates the difference between the application of AHP and TOPSIS models. The mentioned difference prepared the condition for using prioritizing strategies (the average of ranks, Borda and Kopeland) by combining the results from TOPSIS and AHP models. Results show the most occurrence potential in Ardal, Koohrang, Farsan townships and the least one in Boroujen township.