جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "اقتصاد کلان" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

According to some common views in macroeconomics, fiscal policy can be effective in stabilizing the economy and achieving macroeconomic goals. The past few decades have seen the widespread use of monetary policy tools for this purpose. Since the onset of the global financial crisis in 2008, there has been a renewed interest in using fiscal policy as a stabilizing tool. The macroeconomic implications of government expenditures and revenues and their effects on the overall economic structure have been studied by various empirical methods in several countries as well as in Iran. In this paper, far from previous studies, the issue has been implemented using Bayesian structural vector autoregression (B-SVAR). Because this method takes the previous information into account, the B-SVAR method is able to make more accurate estimates than other VAR models. Empirical findings show that government spending and income (income tax) have a limited effect on macroeconomic variables, including GDP, inflation, private sector consumption, income tax and total investment, and in the housing sector. Also, the impact of the private sector on production fluctuations in this model was not confirmed.

Given the importance of credit risk management in banks and its effects on banking management and financial institutions and the need to find the type of effect and duration on the field of banking, this article examines how credit risk responds to currency shocks, inflation and government spending in Iran. Pay Changes in credit risk of selected banks in the banking system of the Islamic Republic of Iran have been studied annually during the period 2006-2020. In this research, the subject has been investigated using the panel-based estimation method (p-var) and the instantaneous reaction functions (IRF). Due to the existence of various macroeconomic variables and their shocks due to the importance of exchange rates, inflation and government spending, these three factors were selected as the shocks studied on credit risk. The results of research estimates show that banks' credit risk is significantly affected by the macroeconomic environment; With a positive inflation shock, a positive exchange rate shock and a government spending shock, banks' credit risk is reduced.

Reduction of unemployment as one of the key indicators of economic evaluation of countries has always been the focus of attention of economists and politicians of countries. In recent decades and with the expansion of the new institutionalism approach, good governance and its components have been considered as one of the important factors affecting the development strategy of countries and unemployment control. Therefore, the main goal of this study is to investigate the effect of good governance on unemployment in selected oil exporting countries. In this regard; The effect of good governance indicators on unemployment in selected OPEC member countries was investigated by using the Modified Ordinary Least Squares (FMOLS) method. The data used in this research are annual data extracted from reliable scientific organizations and databases for the period from 2002 to 2021. Considering the strong correlation between good governance indicators and in order to prevent problems caused by multiple collinearity, by using the principal component analysis (PCA) method, the main governance components were extracted and the first principal component ( PC〗_1) was included in the model as a proxy for different dimensions of governance. The results of the estimation of the model showed that the first main component of governance has a negative and significant effect on unemployment in this group of countries, which means that improving the governance situation can provide the basis for reducing unemployment in OPEC member countries. Also, the interest rate, as one of the macro variables affecting unemployment entered in the model, has a positive and significant effect on unemployment. 

Macroeconomic conditions are important in the start-up, performance, development and sustainability of businesses. Some concepts related to economic conditions affecting entrepreneurial activities include economic recession and boom conditions, inflation level, monetary and credit policies, financial policies and government expenses, and economic instability. Changes in economic conditions may cause changes in decision-making in starting or continuing businesses. Therefore, awareness of the relationship between entrepreneurial activities and macroeconomic performance is inevitable for entrepreneurship researchers and policy makers. In this study, in order to investigate economic environment factors on the development and sustainability of entrepreneurial activities, the data of 20 developing countries during the years 2009-2019 have been used. Using panel data and the method of generalized moments in panel data, the relationship between variables was analyzed. The results of the research show that government expenditures in the education sector and the amount of credits granted to the private sector have a significant and positive effect on the entrepreneurship index. While economic growth has no significant relationship with the level of entrepreneurship. Also, the level of inflation and interest rate has a positive effect on the entrepreneurship index, so that from the point of view of entrepreneurs, the presence of liquidity and increased demand, as well as the supply of more financial resources, is preferable to reducing their costs.

The main goal of this research is to design a composite economic-energy-environmental performance index (3EPI) for Iran's economy by generalizing the methodology of Khramov and Lee (2013) as well as evaluating the effect of variables on the composite performance index during the period from 1991 to 2021 using a time-varying parameters model (TVP). The 3EPI index is calculated in a weighted and unweighted form, and the trend is separated from the cyclic with the Hodrick-Prescott filter. The findings show that the long-term trend of the 3EPI index is in the range between 35 and 60 percent, which is significantly different from the base number of the index (i.e. 100 percent). The chronicle of the index shows that the worst performance is related to the implementation period of the structural adjustment policy (1994 and 1995), the first round of economic sanctions (2012), and the intensification of economic sanctions in the latest round of sanctions (2019). The best performance is related to the two periods of the relative stability of macroeconomic variables and the period of implementation of the JCPOA agreement. The results of the application of the TVP model show that, from 2011 to 2021, the variable of the budget deficit to GDP ratio had the most significant negative impact on Iran’s 3EPI performance index

Prediction and clear understanding of the behavior of a phenomenon plays a major role in adopting strategies and decisions. All-round development and deepening of the capital market as the driving engine of economic development requires the public trust of participants in its efficiency and correctness in determining the fair price of securities. On the other hand, predicting company value, price fluctuations, or stock returns is very important in portfolio selection, asset management, and even stock pricing of newly listed companies.In this research, using the data of 159 companies during a 10-year period including 2011-2020 and the factors affecting the company's value, including financial ratios, corporate governance mechanisms, macroeconomic factors, and the stock market, the company's value has been predicted. In this research, two structures of deep learning methods including GRU and BLSTM are used for better evaluation. The results of examining the data collected using deep learning techniques indicated that the combined model with a lower RMSE error than the GRU model predicted the value of the company.

In recent years, the advent and development of new forms of e-currencies has threatened national currencies issued by central banks (which perform various functions on terms of exchanges and monetary policy). In view of the foregoing, Central Banks are trying to develop cryptocurrencies that perform both the functions of decentralized digital currencies whilst preserving the sovereignty of the national currencies. Various Cases of this effort are currently being trialed or studied on an experimental basis in many countries. This study investigates the effects wrought by the issuance of digital currencies by the Central Bank on the macro economy of Iran. For this purpose, the methodology of this paper relies on the analysis of data from interviews and questionnaires.The results obtained indicate that the issuance of digital currencies by central banks can be effective in improving the nominal-monetary variables of the economy. Furthermore, among the other positive effects of the issuance of digital currencies include; enhancing the efficiency of monetary policy tools; increasing the efficacy of monetary policy platforms such as the interbank lending markets; improving monetary transfer mechanisms such as the payment system, improving the efficiency of financing and investment.

Macroeconomic conditions are important in the start-up, performance, development and sustainability of businesses. Some concepts related to economic conditions affecting entrepreneurial activities include economic recession and boom conditions, inflation level, monetary and credit policies, financial policies and government expenses, and economic instability. Changes in economic conditions may cause changes in decision-making in starting or continuing businesses. Therefore, awareness of the relationship between entrepreneurial activities and macroeconomic performance is inevitable for entrepreneurship researchers and policy makers. In this study, in order to investigate economic environment factors on the development and sustainability of entrepreneurial activities, the data of 20 developing countries during the years 2009-2019 have been used. Using panel data and the method of generalized moments in panel data, the relationship between variables was analyzed. The results of the research show that government expenditures in the education sector and the amount of credits granted to the private sector have a significant and positive effect on the entrepreneurship index. While economic growth has no significant relationship with the level of entrepreneurship. Also, the level of inflation and interest rate has a positive effect on the entrepreneurship index, so that from the point of view of entrepreneurs, the presence of liquidity and increased demand, as well as the supply of more financial resources, is preferable to reducing their costs.

The phenomenon of unemployment is one of the major socio-economic problems that is directly and indirectly affected by the way of governance. Since the mid-1990s, under the influence of the development of new institutionalism literature and the recommendations of international institutions, governance and its components were considered as main deteminants of development strategy of countries and controlling the unemployment rate. According to the theory of new institutionalism, corruption is the main cause of unemployment and many economic problems of countries. The main aim of this research is to investigate the dynamic relationship between corruption and unemployment in OPEC member states for the period from 2005 to 2019. For this purpose, the generalized moment method (SGMM) is used in this research. The results indicate that corruption control can play an effective role in reducing the unemployment rate. Also, the political stability has a negative and significant effect on the unemployment rate; In the sense that the reduction of political instabilities and more governance control over political events can lead to a reduction in the unemployment rate in OPEC member states.

The banking system, as one of the most effective sectors of the economy, by collecting a significant part of the available liquidity and directing it to the productive sectors, causes economic prosperity.The profitability of banks depends on a set of internal and external factors, of which liquidity management is the most important. In order to earn profit, banks must manage their liquidity in such a way as to meet their obligations and avoid wasting investment opportunities. In this research, by examining the effective indicators on liquidity management, a composite index that represents the level of bank liquidity management was calculated and introduced. Then, using the annual data of 16 banks in the period (2006-2021), the effect of liquidity management on banks' profitability was investigated using the generalized moments method (GMM), two-stage Arellano-Bond. The results show that liquidity management has the most positive effect on the profitability of banks, so that in private and semi-state banks, the intensity of this effect is greater than in state banks.

In significant part of oil-exporting countries, oil revenues are considered as one of the main drivers of the economy. However, these revenues are volatile, uncertain and subject to shocks due to exogenous nature and inherent volatility of oil prices as well as the reality of the hydrocarbon resources’ depletion. On the other hand, oil revenues are independent of the domestic economy as they are mainly derived from exports. This indicate that a significant part of the economy in these countries is exposed to potential instability, depending on the way and quality of these revenues’ management. This article examines the effect of oil revenue shocks on volatility of five macroeconomic variables, i.e. economic growth rate, inflation rate, real exchange rate, liquidity and government size, using panel var from selected oil-exporting countries over the period 2000-2019. The results show that oil instability shocks led to increase in instability of government size, liquidity and exchange rate. In addition, it first increase instability of inflation rate and economic growth rate but subsequently decrease these tow variables’ instability.

Learning and education throughout history has played a significant role in the growth and development of the humanities. Proper study and efficient macroeconomic education with an Islamic approach can help the growth of this important branch of economics, especially the demand for it in Islamic societies. The purpose of this article, which is done by critical analysis method, is to review and critique the approaches of studying and teaching macroeconomics with an Islamic approach, followed by a comparative-critical approach to teaching macroeconomics with an Islamic approach in the conditions of the transition of the society towards the ideal Islamic society.Findings show that the theory of macroeconomics with an Islamic approach has not been adequately and effectively explained. And in scientific-research centers and economic decision-making, there has been no effective demand for it. And that comparative-critical teaching of this course, along with conducting statistical studies, increases its effectiveness and effective demand for it.

One of the challenges for monetary policymakers is how to adopt monetary policy when inflation is persistence. Inflation stability is in fact a measure of the tendency of the inflation rate to maintain its current state and in a way indicates the stickiness in the variable. The issue of inflation stability becomes more difficult when in an economy, inflation stability changes at different times. Therefore, in this study, the intensity of inflation persistence and its dynamics in the Iranian economy were examined using monthly data for the period 1383:1 -1399:6 and using the generalized MS- ARFIMA model. The results showed that in the regime with low inflation and less fluctuations, there is stability of inflation; however, in the regime with high inflation and high fluctuations, there was no evidence of inflation. From an economic and monetary policy perspective, this result is very important. In fact, these results indicate that the monetary policymaker can reduce the level of inflation and return it to its previous values (long-term average) by inflicting a negative shock, quickly and without showing the resistance variable. But when we see moderate inflation in the country's economy, the reduction of inflation will not be easy and usually there will be a need for more efforts to reduce it. Therefore, paying attention to these results can prevent the inconsistency of time in the adoption of monetary policy. It can also be a warning to policymakers to refrain from adopting policies that have limited positive effects in the short term but negative effects in the long run.

The aim of this paper is the classification the economic entropy index in a macroeconomic model. Therefore, the descriptive-analytical methodology and econophysics and systems theory were used. The results show that the economic entropy was divided in four sections, shock entropy, respiration entropy, sleep entropy, and entropy of waste. Increasing the economic entropy index due to the scarcity of environmental resources, predicts the likelihood of an economic catastrophe. This will not only bring about economic growth faces serious problems, but the environment poses a serious problem as a place of residence. According to the results, reducing the instabilities and external stresses to reduce shock entropy, developing the appropriate rules for firms to reduce respiratory entropy, policies based on the reduction of physical and social waste to reduce the entropy of waste and policies for the use of production spaces that are not currently in use to reduce sleep entropy recommended.

In this study, the estimation of the private sector consumption function in Iran with the Islamic economics approach was evaluated using the Uncorrected Error Correction Model (UECM) band based convergence test (Boys, Shane & Smith, 2001) during the period of 1984-2017. Has been. In the estimated function, the consumption expenditure of the private sector in Iran, a function of non-oil GDP, the ratio of household religious expenditure to total household expenses as an indicator of people's faith, inflation and interest rates on bank deposits as a share of funds suppliers Participatory market is considered. The results of this estimate indicate that with a one-percent increase in non-oil GDP, private sector spending will increase by 1.01 percent, and with a one-percent increase in inflation, private sector spending will decrease by 0.63 percent. . With a one-percent increase in the people's faith index, private sector consumption is down 0.15 percent. The results indicate that increasing their faith will reduce their consumption. In this study, the interest rate on long-term bank deposits as a share of fund providers in the participation market did not have a significant effect on the consumption of individuals.

In the Iranian economy, a part of the financial needs and liabilities of the government is always financed by the Central Bank. With an increase in the government debts to the Central Bank, monetary policy gets passive and implemented in line with fiscal policies. Consequently, the functions of the monetary policy are disrupted, and it deviates from its goals. This can have undesirable impacts on the macro-economy. So, this study aims at the macroeconomic effects of the government debts to the Central Bank in Iran during the period of 1973-2017. To this end, a SVAR model is used. The result of the research showed that the government debt to the Central Bank has had no significant effect on the ratio of aggregate demand to aggregate supply, real exchange rate and the relative price of non-tradable goods to tradable goods, but it has significantly increased the prices over a period of three years and decreased the GDP over two years. In the long run, the government debt to the Central Bank has explained 10.8 percent of variation in the general level of prices and 11.25 percent of variation in the GDP per person. These results indicate that the Fiscal Dominance and the Fiscal Theory of Price Level ‎can account for this situation in the Iranian economy.

Reduction in the access to health care services and spread of disease can have a negative effects on the economic growth and welfare of the community by reducing the labor force participation. Increasing government health expenditures is one of the ways to overcome these problems. However, implementing this policy, along with its positive effects, will have a negative impact on the effective labor supply of other sectors. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate these effects using a computable general equilibrium model based on the 2009 social accounting matrix of Iran. The results showed that illness, reduced welfare and real GDP, but increasing government health expenditures, increased welfare in the short run and long run. Although effects on real GDP depend on the closure of labor market, so that in the situation of immobile labor force of the health sector, it is decreased, but with full labor mobility, it increased. So because of the positive welfare effects of government health expenditures, it is suggested that government still more invest in this sector. Also to reducing the costs and preventing the real GDP reduction it is necessary to provide the ground to increase labor force in the health sector in such a way as to the labor supply of other activities doesn’t decrease.

The stock market is influenced by other parallel markets and macroeconomic variables; such variables have impacts on the behavior of financial market players. Accordingly, this study first examines the existence of herding behavior among investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE). It then investigates the effects of exogenous economic variables on this industry-level behavior in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) throughout 2008-2018. For this purpose, 12 different industries were studied, and the results of nonlinear regression analysis showed the existence of herding behavior in all selected industries in the bearish market. However, this is not true for the bullish market. The findings also indicate that the effects of exogenous variables are not the same in different industries.