جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « لاجیت چندگانه » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

Economists emphasize the endogenous and exogenous causes of the bank deferrals related to loan repayment. Whereas banking experts classify the causes of loan default as external and internal organizational factors. According to targets of article 2 of the agricultural bank of Iran the Statute (2020), this bank should provide credit facilities for a better life in the countryside, increase the income level of villagers, increase agricultural production, develop SMEs located in rural areas, and participation in related activities. Therefore, to achieve the goals of providing financial resources, it is important how the resources are absorbed and how they are returned. Studies by Hassanzade and Habibi (2010), Shabani and Jalali (2012), and Bafandeh et al. (2015) regarding the crisis of bank deferrals in Iran indicate that the role of indigenous factors is more decisive than exogenous factors. The study Arabmazar and Roeintan (2013) is dedicated to non-timely repayment of bank facilities have most important to bank deferrals than other factors. Most of Iran's bank deferrals studies paid attention only to exiguous factors and did not pay enough attention to endogenous factors. As observed, recent research has considered the important factors of this bank deferrals problem, but none of them work on the interest factor as a crucial factor, and we must address this in this study.

Theoretical frame work:

In the theoretical section, we draw Minsky's theory concerning bank deferral and financial crisis to provide a theoretical for identifying the factors that have influenced the improvement of loan repayment. Goldsmith (1969) and (1973), McKinnon, and Shaw (1973) argued for financial liberalization versus financial repression. The common denominator in these studies is focused on financial liberalization; setting a ceiling for interest rates inevitably leads to a small constraint on the credit system that the result is a low level of saving and investment.  In contrast, Minsky (1995:1) mentioned that in the post-second World war period, the OECD could control the rate of interest instead of money supply and achieve "the golden age of capitalism".  

Multiple logit regression (MNLR) is simply a generalized or extended dual logit regression with more explanatory variables. In other words, we want to investigate the simultaneous effects of several independent variables on the dependent variable y. MNLR regression is also known as multiple and multi-state logit because it is used to model the relationship between a multi-state response variable and a set of independent variables. A multi-state response variable can be a sequential variable or a nominal variable.                      

Since 1936 there has been a serious debate among Keynesian and Walrasian economists on the role of money and finance. Walrasian economists reject the finance dominance of capitalist economies. While, Mineski (1995: 3), upon on the modern version of the Walrasian of general equilibrium theory, ignores the finance dominance of capitalist economies. If economic theory is to be relevant for the intense finance world in which we live, it fully incorporates financial factors into determining the economy's behavior in the economy. Such a theory should not hold that financial factors are "exogenous shocks" to the economy or explain whatever malfunctioning an economic theory economy is. Money and finance as nominal variables do not play a dominant role in the preferences, commodities, and services of the economy resulting from the incompetence of central bankers.

Result and Suggestions:

Our finding on the empirical sector shows disagreement among economists about the impact of interest rates on bank deferrals. The relationship between loan size and the amount of loan deferral penalty is another of the most challenging issues among theoreticians of loan and credit. Our study results on variables of repayment and extension loan have a significant and negative effect on improving the bank repayment, which in this regard is consistent with the study of Ferdowsipur et al. (2013). Other findings indicate a direct relationship between interest rates and default of loans on the one hand and the number of installments in the improvements of payment of bank claims on the other hand, which is consistent with Ashraghi et al. (2015), Makorere (2014) and Ferdowsipur et al. (2013).

The purpose of this article is to predict the likelihood of systematic banking crises in selected developing countries, so that economic policymakers can study and deal with this crisis and reduce the likelihood of its occurrence. For this purpose, 37 developing countries were selected and the probability of a banking crisis for the selected countries during the years 1994-2018 was estimated using the binary and multinomial logit model. The results showed that in the multinomial logit model, the percentage of correctly predicted critical periods is higher than in the binary logit model, and the multinomial logit model is more appropriate. The results of the multinomial logit model indicate the ineffectiveness of exchange rate deviation and the positive effect of inflation, real interest rate and trade relations on the probability of a banking crisis in the countries under study. Economic growth rate, per capita production and capital flow, and the ratio of the ratio of bank redits to private sector to production have had a negative effect on the likelihood of a banking crisis in the countries under study. The results also showed that the ratio of private sector credit to production was not a good predictor of the possibility of a banking crisis in the countries under study

discrete choice models, is one of main components of study of people's choice behavior and it used in various fields such as people's demand for goods and services. In such models, the logit model family is used as a key tool for modeling them. This family started with the binary and multiple logit model and then expanded to the nested logit. The limitations of these models led the researchers' attention to more advanced models and formation of a mixed logit model at the highest level of flexibility. The purpose of this study is to estimate the demand for bus,taxi and personal car in Isfahan city at morning peak hours by using mixed logit model. In this way, first express the issue of travel demand and formation of mode choice model then multiple logit model is introduced as basic model in discrete choice, until introduction and modeling mixed logit model to be provided. Finally, travel demand for these mods was assessed using the mixed logit. The data needed to estimate travel demand was gathered by collecting questionnaire from traveler during the morning peak hours of days at autumn and winter in Isfahan city.
The results of estimation of mod choice by mixed logit show that convenience and the head of household are factors influencing the choice of car, while the time and cost are the only factors influencing the choice of the bus for travel during the morning peak hours. Time, cost, convenient, income and head of household are factors that influencing taxi choice.