جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "پایداری مالی" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

Increased spending has been one of the main concerns of the financial policies for various countries in the last two decades. Specifically, in those countries where the debt is at relatively high levels, examining the financial sustainability becomes more crucial; since high levels of debt limit the government's choices in issuing debt, imposing taxes, and printing money to correct the deficit. Therefore, one of the criteria for evaluating financial policies is the sustainability of financial policy. This study attempts to estimate the coefficient of influence of the variables affecting the financial balance of the Iranian government in stable and unstable financial regimes for the period 1971-2019. To this end, the financial balance was considered as a dependent variable in the regimes, and the estimated coefficient of the first interval of the debt-to-GDP ratio variable was chosen as the determining factor. Five states of the research model were estimated by considering different explanatory variables and the best fit was selected.  The results showed that both stable and unstable regimes have a high probability of permanence, and the absolute value of the first lag coefficient of the debt-to-GDP ratio variable is significantly higher in the instable regime than in the stable regime. Thus, the greater reduction effect of the ratio of debt to GDP of the previous period on the financial balance of the government in the unstable regime compared to its increasing effect in the stable regime; also, during the period of time, the stable financial regime can be the dominant financial regime and it can be said that the NPG condition (No Ponzi game condition) is valid in this era.In this study, the estimation of the financial balance of the government of Iran in sustainable and unsustainable financial regimes in the period of 1971 to 2019 has been done in the form of Markov-switching model. For this purpose, the financial balance was estimated as a dependent variable in the regimes, and the estimated coefficient of the first lag of the debt-to-GDP ratio variable was chosen as the determining factor of the regime. 5 states of the model were estimated by considering different explanatory variables and the best fit (estimate) was selected. The obtained results showed that both sustainable and unsustainable regimes have a high probability of permanence and the absolute value of the coefficient of the first lag of the debt-to-GDP ratio variable in the significant mode is higher in the unsustainable regime than in the sustainable regime,

In recent years, the concerns about the fiscal stability of the Tehran municipality have increased. Construction fees, as the main source of municipalities’ revenue, are volatile and unpredictable. During recession periods, the reduction in construction fees enhances the municipality’s budget deficit, and consequently, the municipality issues debt to cover the deficit. An enhanced budget deficit and an increased debt level lead to unsustainable fiscal conditions. In Tehran, recent housing market recessions and covid pandemic have reduced the municipality’s revenues and forced it to borrow money from the banking system. This paper explores the status of the fiscal stability of Tehran municipality in the period 1400-1405.

Materials and methods:

In this paper, we use two different approaches, debt to GDP and debt to asset ratios, to forecast the level of municipal debt and investigate the status of the fiscal stability of Tehran municipality. The balance sheet of Tehran municipality (available until 1397) is used to compute the debt-to-asset ratio. We also used the reported debt and GDP level of the municipality of Tehran to calculate the debt-to-GDP ratio of the year 1399 in our analysis. In the next step, we employed fiscal programming and policies framework (FPP) to forecast the revenue and expenses of Tehran municipality. Consequently, the budget deficit of Tehran is forecasted in the period 1400-1405.

According to our findings, Tehran municipality was in an unstable fiscal condition in 1399. The debt to asset ratio was more than 67% in 1397, and the debt to GDP ratio was 16% in 1399. The desired target rate for these two ratios was 50% and 9.9%, respectively. Based on our forecast, the municipality is expected to face a high budget deficit. The municipality will be forced to borrow from the banking system to cover the deficit. Furthermore, It may be unable to settle the previously issued debt. Accordingly, the Tehran municipality debt-to-GDP ratio is expected to reach 25% by the end of 1405.

In this paper, we aimed to assess the fiscal stability of the Tehran municipality and suggest a series of reforms to enable the municipality to achieve fiscal stability. The debt to GDP ratio of 16% and the debt to asset ratio of 67% in 1399 demonstrates that the municipality is fiscally unstable. Although the target rate of the debt to GDP ratio is 9.9% in 1405, our forecast shows that the ratio will approach 25 percent by then. Accordingly, the fiscal status of the Tehran municipality will remain significantly unstable in 1405.The required reforms to achieve fiscal stability should be implemented in two dimensions. First, policy reforms are needed to reduce expenses and increase revenues. To prevent the financial crisis, in the medium term, the GDP of Tehran should experience an average increase of 1.54% each year. Second, Institutional reforms are necessary to increase the transparency of budget spending and enhance the efficiency of the reporting process. In this regard, implementing budget classification and coding reforms and fully applying accrual accounting are among the necessary reforms.

Persistent budget deficit in Iran, and recent leaning to issuance of bonds for deficit compensation raised concerns about the public debt sustainability. In this article, we forecast the budget deficit for next five years (up to 2026) by using an Autoregressive Distributed Lags (ARDL) model, based on two scenarios for future macroeconomic conditions of Iran and then, the sustainability of public debt to GDP ratio is analysed. According to the results, increasing trend of the debt ratio would tend to debt unsustainability. Findings have two important implications. Firstly, in absence of budget structure reforms even high economic growth has no significant effect on debt overrun. Secondly, in continuation of high inflation the only way to prevent budget solvency is suppressed real interest rate, which subsequently could disturb saving and investment intention through the misallocation of resources. Therefore, Central Bank and Treasury should cope with a trade-off between government insolvency and inflation, warned that persistent inflation is not a reliable tool to manage fiscal sustainability. In low rate of inflation, the sustainable debt ratio is achieved due to budget structural reforms with emphasis on implementing obligatory fiscal rules

The existence of a structural budget deficit in Iranian economy and the lack of fiscal discipline have raised concerns about the financial stability of governments among economists. In recent decades, fiscal rules have been considered as a way to establish fiscal discipline and financial sustainability of governments around the world. In this regard, the present study seeks to design a fiscal framework based on the three rules of debt ceiling, budget balance and expenditure for Iranian economy. The results of applying the stochastic simulation method show a high level of current public debt compared to the debt rule ceiling estimated by the model and the budget balance rule will be greatly effective in improving the future path of public debt. In other words, applying the budget balance rule reduces the fluctuations of the future path of public debt. It is also suggested to establish an institutional mechanism as a complementary institution with the aim of improving the performance and effectiveness of fiscal rules, especially for expenditures rule and ensuring their implementation

In the present study, the effect of financial inclusion on financial efficiency and financial sustainability in the period 2004-2018 for developing countries was studied using the multidimensional indexing method and two-stage GMM. Among domestic studies, no research has been done on the relationship between financial inclusion and financial efficiency and sustainability, and the present study is the first study, and there are limited related studies abroad due to the novelty of the subject.In this context, the results showed that financial inclusion has a positive and significant effect on financial sustainability (coefficient equal 0.009) and a negative and significant effect on financial efficiency (coefficient equal 0.009). Based on research empirical evidence, financial sustainability and financial inclusion can be achieved in the form of a common goal setting. In other words, policymakers, while maintaining the stability of the financial system, can achieve goals in which more people benefit from financial services. In contrast, the findings showed that measures and programs to develop financial inclusion can have side effects in the form of reduced financial efficiency. This is due to increased participation in financial markets, which ultimately leads to increased social costs of institutional deficits in each country.

Because of the importance of the state of financial stability in the economy and its impact on economic growth, we tried to test the fiscal sustainability in Iran by using the nonlinear Markov Switching unit root test from 1973 to 2017. The results obtained from the linear and nonlinear unit root tests show that the fiscal state is unstable in two different regimes entitled high and low fluctuations, and the fiscal policy during the studied period has been experienced an unstable situation. In other words, increasing government debt at a given period has not declined over time and has accumulated in the coming years, and government fiscal policies, regardless of accumulated debt compensation, expands spending policies. Therefore, serious consideration of this issue and formulation of fiscal policy, especially budgeting and strengthening of long-term government debt repayment paths to achieve financial sustainability status, is one of the policy recommendations of this paper for economic planners and decision-makers in Iran. Also, it is expected that, regardless of these considerations, the Iranian economy has always suffered from the accumulation of government debts over time.

From the perspective of government accounting, the Publishing of Islamic Treasury Bills, due to the nature of these bonds that transfer of debt is permissible, there will be no additional financial burden for the government in the form of principal and interests of them. In other securities, on the other hand, the government is bound to pay the principal and its interests on the date of maturity to its holders. Paying the interests of the bonds as a new cost resource will affect government Fiscal sustainability. So, over the time, government debt will rise and get into Ponzi game. Regarding the growing trend in the use of securities in financing and the growing use of Islamic Treasury Bills, along with other debt securities recently, it is imperative to examine the aspects of Islamic Treasury Bills that can effect on the government fiscal sustainability, as a main way to achieve to a stable macroeconomic framework. This is followed in this thesis using the design of a stochastic dynamic general equilibrium model for the Iranian economy. The results show that when the government uses the Islamic Treasury bills, along with other debt securities, the debt-to-output ratio which is considered in this study as an Index of Fiscal sustainability, during productivity, monetary and oil shocks, reflect the Fiscal unsustainability of the government budget in the long run. In contrast, through the private sector investment shocks, mark-ups, exchange rate shocks, and government spending shocks, reflects budget sustainability.

In this paper, the effect of government intervention in the banking sector (financial repression) on banks’ financial stability is investigated during 2001-2013. To measure the index of government intervention in the banking sector, three variables including real interest rate, credits directed by banks and government debt to banks are combined using principal component analysis. Furthermore, the z-score index is applied to measure the financial stability in the banks. Data are extracted from balance sheets and income statements of the banks. Results from a panel of 14 banks show that the intervention of government in the banking sector is of significantly negative effect on financial stability of these banks and therefore increases their financial vulnerability. Moreover, an increase in size of bank improves the financial stability, but higher debt-to-asset ratio increases the banks’ financial vulnerability.

Government financial sustainability refers to government flows of revenues and expenditures. According to the monetary theory of the price-level (MTPL) and financial theory of the price-level (FTPL), it can be stated that causes of increase in price level are government financial debt and monetary provision of debt. The purpose of this study is to investigate the financial sustainability of the government deficit. In order to investigate this relationship and because of dynamics of the model, dynamic cointegration models and dynamic ordinary least square models (DOLS) are applied. For this purpose, we used data from the annual period 1971 -2013. Empirical results for the variables indicate that variables for government’s expenditures and government’s revenues are first order cointegrated which suggest that there exists a long run relationship between the variables. For this purpose, three kinds of government revenues including tax revenues, taxes, and oil revenues, and tax incomes, oil and seigniorage are regressed over costs which result in weak financial sustainability, strong financial sustainability and inconsistency in government financial sustainability, respectively. Therefore, it is recommended that in order to maintain financial sustainability, governments invest oil revenues, to the extent possible, in capital assets and by reforming their cost structures attempt to balance their income and cost flows. Also, since government financial debt and debt financing through seigniorage are two important reasons for inflation, governments should be more disciplined in their financial structure.

An oil-producing country face fiscal challenges arising from the fact that oil revenue is exhaustible, volatile, and uncertain and largely originates from abroad. The dependence of government revenue on oil proceeds which are unpredictable significantly complicates fiscal management policy in short and long run. Sustainability generally, concerns current and expected future policies. If governments do not expect current and future policies to lead to an intertemporal budget constraint, then the fiscal process would be unsustainable.oThis paper has empirically examined the sustainability of fiscal policy in Iran and provides a theoretical framework for analyzing of the sustainability of fiscal policy based on the government intertemporal budget constraint. Co integration and multi co integration methodologies such as Engle-Granger and Johansen-Josilios as well as Barro’s (1979, 1986) Tax-Smoothing Model were used to evaluate fiscal budgeting processes in Iran. It was found that the fiscal budgeting process in Iran is not sustainable and the Iranian fiscal policy, as far as oil and gas income is concerned, is not a fully responsible policy. In addition the evidence in this research shows that the government spending and revenues in Iran are independent.

Present fiscal policy progression will pave the way for the government's debts repayment if the government is in the fiscal stability condition. This paper tries to test Iranian government's fiscal stability on the basis of 1971-2008 data, using multicointegration method. In this method, it is possible to study the cointegration relationship of variables with different accumulation rank order. This study indicates that the government is not in a stable fiscal status in the public budget scale. But if seigniorage is added to the government's revenues, it would result in fiscal stability status. This indicates that Iran's fiscal policy could repay government's debts just through relying on inflation.

This paper investigates the sustainability of fiscal process in Iran. For fiscal process to be sustainable, government's intertemporal budget constraint should be satisfied.In this paper, we have assessed sustainability condition for period 1964-2007, using cointegration tests. The model is based on Bohn (1998) and the Barro's tax smoothing model (1986). This model is modified for an oil-producing country, noticing that oil income has comprised a large part of government income in Iran.Results show that fiscal process is not sustainable in Iran. The sustainability of the fiscal process is also compared in two periods, before and after the revolution.The estimated coefficients of the model indicate that the fiscal sustainability condition has become worse after the revolution