جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « financial crisis » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

One of the factors that can affect the stock price index of listed companies is the financial crisis. Some economists believe that the financial markets of developing countries such as Iran will not be affected by the financial crisis due to lack of integration or interaction with the world's financial markets. In fact, the most important mistake that these people made in their analysis is that the mechanism of financial market influence in two groups of countries that interact and integrate financially with each other and the other group with each other. The world's financial markets do not have the same, they consider the same. The present paper examines the impact of the Corona financial crisis on the stock price index of companies, which is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive in terms of analytical nature and is in the category of post-event research. The statistical population in this research is all the companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization. The method used is descriptive-analytical, which in order to adapt economic theories to the realities of society, causal relationships between variables are examined using statistics and after matching with theories, using inferential statistics. And the panel econometric method is tested in Eviews software to reject or prove the presented hypotheses. According to the model estimation results, all three research hypotheses were accepted. Key Words: Inflation; Currency; Interest rates; financial crisis; Oil revenues

In Islamic financial markets, Sukuk is the most important Islamic financial securities. Sukuk is designed in a way that is compatible with Islamic laws. These characteristics of sukuk have made it an attractive source of capital for issuers outside the Islamic world who seek to access the liquidity provided by Islamic investors. The sukuk instrument is a partial ownership in an asset (lease sukuk) or property interests (benefit sukuk) or participation in a business or project (participation sukuk). Sukuk diversifies investors' portfolios and offers opportunities to invest in new assets, and on the other hand, issuers can benefit from additional liquidity resulting from growing demand among a large number of investors. Institutions and individuals benefit from Sharia compliant investment tools. The main goal of this research is the comparative analysis of the impact of sukuk market development on bank profitability in Islamic and conventional banks.

 In order to achieve the above goal, the information of 15 countries in the Persian Gulf was analyzed in the period from 2014 to 2021. To test the hypotheses of the research, the multivariate regression method was used using the combined data method.

The results of the research showed that the development of the sukuk market increases the profitability of Islamic banks. Also, the results showed that the development of sukuk market has no effect on the profitability of conventional banks. In addition, the results showed that the Covid-19 crisis does not moderate the impact of the development of the sukuk market on the profitability of Islamic and conventional banks.

In general, it can be said that with the development of the sukuk market, the private sector is increasingly interested in this market, and it is expected that this market will take a large part of the society's liquidity. Financial institutions will also be interested in this market. The sukuk instrument is a partial ownership in an asset (lease sukuk) or property interests (benefit sukuk) or participation in a business or project (participation sukuk). Sukuk diversifies investors' portfolios and offers opportunities to invest in new assets, on the other hand, issuers can benefit from the increased liquidity resulting from the growing demand among a large number of institutional investors. and individuals to benefit from Sharia compliant investment instruments. Therefore, many companies are currently waiting to enter this market due to the greater diversity of the sukuk market compared to traditional bank loans. Sukuk is a financial instrument that allows market participants to obtain a large amount of money and capital from investors, which is possible through the development of a diverse structure of sukuk. Also, according to the presented results, the development of the sukuk market has not played an effective role in the profitability of banks against economic shocks and crises. Therefore, due to the limitations of the research regarding the limited time period and the difficulty of accessing the information related to the variables, one should act cautiously in generalizing the results to the periods before and after the scope of this research.

In response to the criticisms of purely statistical methods, based on the semi-structural approach, the credit gap in Iran's economy was calculated from 1994 to 2019. For this purpose, the credit trend was specified based on a generational overlap model as a function of potential output, natural interest rate, institutional quality, and the ratio of the young population. Then, the trend and the credit gap were estimated as a state-space system. The results show a significant positive credit gap between 2013 to 2017 and 2014 to 2017. The origin of excessive credit growth in these two periods is different from each other. Also, the impact of structural variables changes on creating the credit gap in different periods was calculated. In addition, the study of financial crises in Iran reveals that this credit gap has good power in predicting crises.

As the managers due to decision-making and stakeholders, namely investors, tend to predict the occurrence or non-occurrence of financial crisis in the organization under their management, so the present study is aimed to provide a model for predicting this crisis. To achieve the research purpose, smart web models including grey wolf, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization and genetics algorithms were used. For this purpose, the data obtained from the questionnaire completed by 20 experts in the quality section and the data obtained from 173 companies from 2009 to 2019 listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) were used. 38 indices from the categories of macroeconomic indicators, industry factors, corporate characteristics, political, cultural and behavioral events were identified using the review of the theoretical basics. Then, 25 indicators with high impact on the financial crisis were selected using expert opinion and MICMAC analysis. Then, by reviewing the financial statements of 173 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and using Rahavard Novin software, the data were collected from 25 selected indicators and their impact on the financial crisis was examined using gray wolf, ant colony, particle swarm and genetics algorithm to determine the final model of the research. It was found that in terms of efficiency, the ant colony optimization method is the most efficient and the gray wolf method is the least efficient in predicting the financial crisis.

Financial crises can lead to Extensive changes in countries' economies and financial markets. Iran's economy is an oil-dependent economy and, as part of the OPEC oil market, is affected by crises in the OPEC oil market, so research is needed. This study, for the first time, examines the oil markets, with a complex network approach during the financial crisis and compares with pre-crisis and post-crisis for the period 2/1/2003 to 26/8/2019. The results showed that in the financial crisis, the average path length of the oil market network is at a minimum, the density and weight of the network are minimal in the financial crisis, which means that a fluctuation in times of financial crisis is faster and more direct in the markets. Oil is expanding. The relationship between financial markets and the overflow network is reduced during financial crises. The number of ridges has decreased during the financial crisis. The relationship between oil markets and the GARCH-BEKK approach was examined for four phases: pre-crisis, US financial crisis, European financial crisis and post-financial crisis. In the financial crisis, the OPEC market is more affected than other oil markets

The negative consequences of financial crises require the attention of economic policymakers and decision making centers.Therefore, considering the importance of the subject, the present study has investigated the effects of global financial crises on the trade patterns of Iran and its partners during the years 1995-2018.The variables have been estimated in the framework of the gravity model using the pseudo poisson maximum likelihood method.The findings show that the Asian financial crisis (1997) has an effective role in reducing the volume of trade but this result is the opposite in relation to the American financial crisis (2007) ; Because instead of a threat, it has become an opportunity for the movement of business flows. In this situation, it seems that the difference in the intensity and type of impact of financial crises on trade patterns can be affected by the nature of the crisis or the region where the crisis started.

The issue of Systemic risk, as a macro-level phenomenon that can affect the stability of financial systems has received much attention in recent years. This evident in the fact that the concept of systemic risk has emerged as a synonym for financial vulnerability or fragility. Such risks typically arise from instability in financial institutions and can be transmitted to the entire financial system. The objective of the current study is to identify the factors that cause systemic risk in banking systems. The statistical population of this study is all banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange between the years 1390 to the end of 1397. In total, 13 banks active during this period were included in the present study. To determine whether there is a relationship between systemic risk in the Iranian banking sector with the currency market, the global gold market, the global oil market and the stock market, the paper starts with identifying and extracting time series data concerning the factors that cause shocks to the stock value of banks and modeling them through a Vector Auto Regressive model. Subsequently, based on the residuals of the VAR model, a multivariate MGARCH model was calculated. Finally, the domino effect of systemic risk among banks was tested using the significance coefficients of the Vector Auto Regressive model. Based on the results obtained in this study, systemic risk varies across the banking sector. Moreover, the paper finds that crises or disruptions in some banks could have a more destructive effect on the entire financial system and even a country's economy, than other banks.

The possibility of financial crises in the recent years is more than ever during the development of financial markets. In the last two decades, economic figures and financial statements show an unprecedented increase in corporate bankruptcies. The financial crisis can spread to financial markets and play role for impact of liquidity on stock. In this paper, we investigate the effect of liquidity on stock returns by using panel data method for 177 listed companies on the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period of 2007-2020.The results indicate that liquidity during the global financial crisis does not have a significant effect on share returns. In bankrupt companies, share returns have also increased by liquidity has increased. In other words, by increasing the share liquidity of the bankrupt companies, share returns will be increased. All so, when economic growth (year 2007, 2012, 2013, 2015, 2018, 2019) is negative, liquidity affect returns pasetively. The development of new financial instruments such as investment funds will increase the liquidity of stocks and, of course, increase stock returns, which will ultimately improve the development of the capital market for attracting liquidity and micro-capital of society to this financial market.

Financial crises are unpredictable and threatening the economic stability of countries. Hence, policymakers are forced to adopt appropriate tactics to defuse and resolve crises. One of the indicators that helps policymakers and economists is the exchange market pressure. The purpose of this study is to examine the factors affecting the foreign exchange market pressure during 2008- 2009 financial crisis period in OPEC countries using the Fisher's linear function. The results of this research show that exports and imports have the greatest impact on the classification of countries based on the exchange market pressure. The health index is ranked second, followed by the third in the gross domestic product. Monetary variables such as liquidity and inflation are placed in the next ranks. Moreover, Savings, foreign direct investment, unemployment and the population had the least impact on the rating based on the exchange market pressure during the crisis period. The results also indicate that the OPEC countries (except Qatar) are ranked among a group of countries where the impact of the crisis has been remarkable for them.

he spread of the virus (Quid 19) since January 2017 in Wuhan, China has caused many diseases and deaths in the world. The consequences of this virus have caused recession and other global problems so that even developed countries claim to have social health systems. Advanced were in trouble. Questions or hypotheses including: a) The main questions of the research: Does the financial crisis of Corona have a significant impact on the stock index of selected listed companies? Model sub-questions: Do currency crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected stock exchange companies? Do oil crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected stock exchange companies? Sub-hypotheses of the research: Currency crises have a significant effect on the stock index of selected listed companies. Oil crises have a significant impact on the stock index of selected listed companies. The statistical population is all companies listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange Organization that the research return time period is seven years between 1392 and 1399. The method used in the present study is descriptive-analytical, which in order to adapt economic theories to the realities of society, the relationships between variables are examined using statistics and after matching the theories, using From the inferential statistics and econometric method of the panel in Iveys software, the rejection or proof of the presented hypotheses is tested. All three models were accepted.

A fundamental question in examining the monetary system is "who should have the right to create money?" The response provided by the conventional monetary system (fractional reserve system), is to distribute this right between the central bank and commercial banks. But this "historical response", is a "Public Choice", not necessarily based on efficiency or equity. In recent decades, eminent economists such as Simmons, Fisher, Friedman and Tobin have criticized fractional reserve system from different points of view and have recommended a reform toward full reserve banking. Among Muslim economists, Monzer Kahf, Mohsin Khan, Mirakhor, Dallali and Al-Jarhi have such a view. In the present paper, using documentary research method, the theoretical basis of the full reserve banking and the views of its most famous supporters are examined. Then, the most important criticisms regarding the fractional reserve banking are described from two points of view: efficiency and justice. In terms of efficiency, the main critique of the fractional reserve system are: the aggravation of monetary shocks and escalation of macroeconomic fluctuations, increasing the risk of bank-run, the need for increased government interventions and complex regulations, inefficient allocation of resources as a result of information asymmetry, and the continuous increase of public and private debt. On the other hand, in terms of justice, the main critique of the fractional reserve system are: granting the power to decide about the most important near-public good to private-motivated enterprises, institutionalizing usury (interest) in contracts, violating distributive justice (bankers' monopolistic profitmaking vs. loading banking system losses on the general public), and the transfer of assets ownership without complying with legitimate property rights.

Risk management of credit institutions is de facto deemed to be very cardinal for controlling and reducing the risks which may be inflicted to these entities in toto. It is also stipulated as a forward-looking approach to resolve per se the potential issues and impediments that may occur in their routine operations. However, one of the effective methods of risk management is de jure specified as the stress testing. The stress testing is prima facia, a complementary apparatus along with the other risk management appliances, where it may ascertain the degree of vulnerability or resistance of credit institutions which can pray to various shocks, ipso facto. Although, we have contemplated that the stress testing cannot accentuate all the drawbacks of the credit institutions, A fortiori. None the less, despite, identifying the certain extant delicacies in the test, it can warn the board of management, about the undesirable and unexpected consequences of risks, wreaked on these entities Quid pro qua Besides, the stress testing may also be utilized to designate the amount of capital, a credit institution or the whole banking network requires to atone pari passu with forfeitures caused by large shocks exacted on them. It goes without saying that, the Principles of stress testing which were previously published in May 2009 by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, subsequently, ruminated essentially on the flaws of the stress testing after incident of the world financial crises. In this context, with the expansion of the post-crisis stress testing mechanism, it seems there is a dire need to distinct on certain dictums auxiliary to the axioms propounded in the stress testing principles published in 2009. Thus, the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision updated significantly the principles of the stress testing in October 2018, sine die. The new document contains 9 principles which are judiciously delineated the stress testing framework and can be efficiently bequeathed to the large and international banking networks, thereto. Similarly there is a case for banks supervisors and other relevant financial authorities of various member countries of the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision to optimally employ the test, Sine qua non..

This study analyzes banking stability in Islamic banking and conventional banking empirically and answers the question of whether countries with higher penetration coefficient in Islamic banking have experienced greater banking stability than other countries? Many Researchs have offered a number of legal and economic reasons for the superiority of Islamic banking over conventional banking, but this claim has never been empirically tested. Therefore, this study has used data from 7 countries with the highest level of Islamic banking level and 8 countries with conventional banking for the years 2008 to 2018, in the form of a regression model of the panel data family, to test the hypothesis of direct relationship between Islamic banking penetration and banking stability. The results obtained from the analysis of research data indicate that the establishment of Islamic banking and increasing the penetration of Islamic banking has a positive and significant effect on banking stability and therefore countries with Islamic banking experience more banking stability than countries with conventional banking.

The purpose of this study is to explain the Systemic Risk Model with Marginal Expected Shortfall Approach (MES) as regards the banks listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange. The research population includes 15 banks that were present in Tehran Stock Exchange or Iran’s Over-The-Counter (OTC) for the period 2013 to 2018. Data analysis showed that according to the MES criterion, systemic risk has been declining in the period under review. However, the developments of this index can be divided into two sub-periods 2013-2015 and 2016-2018. In the first period (2013-2015), the level of systemic risk based on this criterion was significantly higher than the level of systemic risk in the second period (2016-2018); Nonetheless, over the time, in the second sub-period, on average, the values amounted to about half of what they were in the first-period level.

While most policymakers and economists agree that the global financial crisis will have adverse consequences for the global economy as a whole, relatively little empirical work has been done to examine the effects of the financial crisis on macro variables and the real sector of the Iranian economy. In this paper, we aim to examine the effect of the financial crisis on the economies of Iran (as a relatively closed economy) and Turkey (as a relatively open economy) in the framework of the new Keynesian school, using the two-country Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) model. For this purpose, using the parameters estimated by Bayesian method during the period 1998:1 to 2017: 4, the effects of the global financial crisis on the economies of Iran and Turkey have been analyzed separately through the application of five shocks: monetary policy, investment, productivity in tradable and non-tradable goods and risk premium to the world economy. Then, the response of important macroeconomic variables of Iran and Turkey to these shocks such as GDP, consumption, inflation, investment, and net exports and the components of each of these variables are simulated. According to the findings of this study, both the economies of Iran and Turkey are affected by the crisis, but the severity of the impact of the Iranian economy is less than the Turkish economy due to its less economic relationship with the world, but the persistence of the impact of shocks on the Iranian economy is greater than the Turkish economy.

According to studies, a financial market based on the power law as According to the literature, a financial market based on the power law as a dynamic system can reach a critical point (i.e., a financial crisis) and even go up to the infinity. In this study, four stock exchanges in Tehran, Moscow, Abu Dhabi, and New York were selected based on the availability of credible statistics and the observation of important economic areas in the global geography. Two questions were then formulated as follows. Firstly, did the four markets face crisis and how much was the magnitude of each one? Secondly, if the crisis affected the markets in 2007- 2009, how much was the value-at-risk and the expected shortfall in the crisis? The results indicated that financial crises occurred in the four markets based on the power law and Wakeby distributions and the magnitude of each one was also determined. It was also found that the financial crisis in 2007- 2009 affected all four stock exchanges. The crises that occurred in the Tehran Stock Exchange, respectively included: the first privatization impact of the stock exchange in 2003, the United Nations Security Council's sanctions in 2010, the devaluation of the national currency in 2012, the global financial crisis in 2007, the implementation of the nuclear deal between Iran and the Group 5+1 in 2016, the decline in oil prices in 2014, the nuclear negotiations in 2015, the first nuclear negotiations in 2013, the beginning of the Second Gulf War in 2003, the Russia conflict in 2013 and the Lausanne nuclear deal in 2015. The four crashes in the Russia’s market, respectively were: the global financial crisis in 2007-2009, the economic crisis in Asia in 1997, the Russian financial crisis in 1998 and the Russian Ruble collapse in 2014-2016. Two financial earthquakes occurred in the United Arab Emirates’ market, respectively included: the global financial crisis in 2007-2009 and the effects of the decline in oil prices in 2014. In turn, the crises affected the United States’ stock market were the global financial crisis in 2007, the crash in 1987, the stock markets fall in 2011, the stock market downturn in 2002, the economic crisis in Asia in 1997, the Russian financial crisis in 1998, the September 11 attacks in 2001, the spring in 2001, the flash crash in 2010, the technology bubble collapse in 2000, the stock market selloff in 2015-2016, respectively. Moreover, the worst losses in each market were determined by the value-at-risk and the expected shortfall in the recent global crisis based on the duration. The value-at-risk and the expected shortfall represented the worst possible loss at the end of the next trading day at 95% and 99% confidence levels. The goodness-of-fit statistic (KS) showed that GPD fitted well with the returns up to the given thresholds. Besides, the results of the estimation of value at risk during the period of financial crisis in 2009-2009 showed that the worst daily loss will not exceed 1.1%, 16.1%, 4.2% and 9.1% in the next trading day in 95% of the time in the Iran’s, Russia’s, United Arab Emirates’ and United States’ markets, respectively. Further, it will not exceed 2.5%, 26.3%, 6.9% and 11% in the next trading day in 99% of the time in the markets. Based on the estimation of the expected shortfall, the worst daily expected loss will not exceed 2.3%, 22.8%, 5.9% and 10.2% in the next trading day in 95% of the time. In addition, the worst daily expected loss will not exceed 5.1%, 35.7%, 8.9% and 11% in the next trading day in 99% of the time in the four markets, respectively. It was also found that in the 2007-2009 Russia’s and United States’ stock markets experienced the greatest loss compared to the crash in 1998. Indeed, the financial shocks can lead to relatively great values of the worst expected loss; however their severity is different in each market studied. The results also revealed that the financial crisis with the highest magnitude in 2007- 2009 created a large potential loss and damage in all markets.

The financial crisis is one of the most important challenges facing many countries so far. One of the most important consequences of the financial crisis is the currency crisis, which creates pressure on the currency market. The purpose of this paper is to examine the pressure of exchange market among developing and developed countries that were affected of global financial crisis (2007-2009). By using quantile regression, The effect of internal factors on the pressure exchange market in these countries was examined in three periods: the pre-crisis period 2000-2006, in the crisis conditions of 2007-2009 and the post-crisis period 2010-2017. The results of the study show that the financial crisis can make difficult for both groups of developing and developed countries. in such sensitive conditions that the slightest change and fluctuation in the exchange rate causes increases or decreases the pressure on the currency market through impact on the mentioned variables. Therefore, in this situation, a level of intervention is needed to achieve the target exchange rate and to avoid pressure on the currency market. The results also showed that both groups of countries are sensitive to the crisis conditions which can affect the currency market pressure. Overall, the results of this study demonstrate the importance of applying policy. For developing countries, the increase in domestic credit and capital flows during the financial crisis and post-crisis period reveals the impact of monetary policy on currency market pressure. Therefore, after the crisis, developing countries are more exposed to currency market pressure than developed countries because variables such as domestic credit and capital flows that represent government monetary policy, have positive effect and increase the pressure on the currency market.

The significance of oil market and its impact on economic growth in oil-exporting and oil-consuming countries has led to examination of factors affecting it in different studies. Financial market and its components have penetrated in traditional oil market and this has resulted in creation of exchanges to trade oil-related securities. Therefore, the importance of financial markets has emerged not as an exogenous variable but as an endogenous variable within the oil market. Scientific results of the research demonstrate that the long-term impact of futures markets on the oil market is definite, however during the crises, due to the concerns about complicated crisis conditions, the effective time horizon becomes short-term, and consequently it is the spot market that influences future variables. Therefore, it is suggested that, in order to prevent the impact of global financial crises on the state’s budget, we have to monitor the financial markets and also participate in oil futures market which has the advantage of generating risk coverage and ensuring the country’s budget to become secure against price fluctuations of international markets. Finally, by undertaking a wise strategy of speculation, we can take advantage of potential opportunities, if supported by domestic financial institutions and Ministry of Petroleum and, therefore, earn the country tremendous revenues.