جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « gdp » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

This study examines textual data's ability to nowcast Iran's gross domestic product (GDP). To this end, 301,498 economic news articles from March 2005 to December 2023 were extracted from the Fars news agency website using a web crawling technique. Following initial preprocessing, the news texts were sorted into various categories via the Dirichlet Latent Allocation (LDA) model, wherein each category corresponds to a distinct news topic. Subsequently, to ascertain whether an article conveys a positive or negative sentiment, we executed lexicon-based sentiment analysis utilizing SentiStrength. Ultimately, by aggregating the news sentiment scores seasonally under each topic, we constructed a seasonal sentiment time series. These time series were then assessed for their efficacy in nowcasting Iran's quarterly GDP, employing ridge regression, lasso regression, elastic net, and gradient boosting methods. The findings reveal that incorporating textual data can reduce prediction errors by 12 to 18 percent relative to a univariate time series model. Moreover, our results suggest that sentiment extracted from textual content, particularly news articles, is a viable approach. This strategy could potentially enable the provision of immediate GDP estimates following the end of each reference quarter.

The importance of household expenses in creating demand for domestic products causes the factors affecting it to be considered in establishing financial incentives. The studies conducted so far have investigated the effect of financial stimulus on macroeconomic variables partly with closed input-output models. However, like Keynes' consumption theory, this model considers household consumption as a function of current income only. Since it overestimates the relationship between the household sector and the production sector, the results of this model are distorted due to the presence of exogenous consumption within the matrix of intermediate goods.

To solve this problem, the current research uses a semi-closed input-output model with semi-endogenous consumption, which was first introduced by Chen et al. (2016). This model adapts the output to other theories of consumption. Also, due to the removal of false effects caused by the transfer of exogenous consumption to the final demand class, more realistic results are obtained from the government's fiscal stimulus. For this purpose, the present study compares the effects of fiscal stimulus on Iran's gross domestic product in two closed models and a semi-closed model using the input-output table issued by the Central Bank of Iran in 2015.

The results of this research show that, with a 10% increase in government spending as a financial stimulus, more value added has been created in the agriculture and horticulture sectors and the private residential unit sector. This is because these two sectors have a larger endogenous consumption coefficient than other sectors. It states that the larger or smaller endogenous consumption coefficient is of effect on the intensity of government investment or the increase in government spending affects the value added and the production level. Moreover, the value-added coefficients obtained from the semi-closed input-output model are smaller than those obtained from the closed input-output model, and they eliminate the distortion in the results of the closed model and increase the accuracy of the calculation results.

Conclusions and policy implications:

To consider the relationship between the household sector and the production sector, a closed input-output model is usually used, but, due to not considering all the factors affecting household consumption, this model cannot calculate the results of policy making. It is because the model overestimates the difference between the household sector and the production sector. To solve this problem, a semi-closed input-output model with semi-endogenous consumption was introduced by Chen’s team. Their model considers all the factors affecting household consumption, hence used for Iranian data in the present study. In this model, due to the calculation of the coefficient of endogenous consumption, the key sectors are specified, and then, due to the elimination of false effects caused by the transfer of exogenous consumption to the final demand class, more realistic results are obtained from predicting the effect of policy on production or other macroeconomic variables.

One of the most important debates and challenges in macroeconomics is the effects of exchange rate fluctuations on macroeconomic variables. Because exchange rate fluctuations affect the demand of the entire economy through imports; Export and demand of money and change in the foreign exchange reserves of the central bank, and the supply side of an economy affect the cost of imported intermediate goods channel, so the result of these two effects on production depends on the initial economic conditions of the country.Exchange rate impulses are of particular importance due to their adverse effects on the performance of economic variables and economic stability, because they cause uncertainty in the relative price trend, growth in production costs, decrease in profits, increase in risk in production, disruption in decision-making processes and deprivation of the ability to plan and The motivation to invest in economic activities is reduced and due to the data communication in economic activities, production in all economic activities is subject to the same or different degrees of negative effects of the exchange rate.Exchange rate is considered a key variable in the economy of any country, and how it affects other economic variables, including GDP, is one of the important challenges in macroeconomics. Exchange rate fluctuation as a sign of instability and uncertainty affects all important economic variables.

In this regard, the main goal of this research is to investigate the asymmetric effects of the exchange rate on the gross domestic product in the selected country of Iran.

For this purpose, in this research, seasonal time series data of Iran's economy during the period (2006-2020) and in the framework of econometric models have been analyzed using the quantile regression method.

Considering the importance of the issue in policy making and the possibility of influencing production through the exchange rate, it is therefore necessary for the government in economic planning to the conditions of recession and economic prosperity of the country. andconsider more monitoring of the money market and reducing the level of fluctuations and currency shocks caused by speculation in order to increase the country's stability and stability.Exchange rate fluctuations are effective on the country's production and demand growth and some other variables; In the way that today the discussion is about the optimal amount of fluctuations. Therefore, the choice of foreign exchange policies according to theeconomic conditions, in such a way as to lead to the establishment of a suitable exchange rate system, can not only be a way to achieve growth and development, but in turn, it also affects other macro factors will be.The distinction of this article is with the studies done in the estimation method and scope of the time and place period and in the conditions of economic stagnation and prosperity. As mentioned in the rest of the article, many studies have been conducted to investigate the effects of exchange rates on production in Iran, regardless of asymmetry.The asymmetric effects of currency shocks, in addition to creating instability and economic impulses, can simultaneously and intermittently affect society in other dimensions of society, such as decreasing trust and increasing corruption and bribery. In these two and a half decades, the economy has faced many monetary expansions and inflation and currency shocks.Governments are interested in identifying appropriate solutions to achieve macroeconomic goals. One of the most important macro goals is production at the level of full employment and stability and economic growth. Given that the exchange rate and shocks from it areone of the most important factors affecting production, therefore, the empirical knowledge of economic officials on the relationship between currency shocks and production is of great importance in policy making.The importance of this becomes more apparent when the government or economic officials want to make the right decision in business periods and in accordance with exchange rate fluctuations.The results showed that value has a symmetrical effect on production. Currency values and the ratio of capital creation to gross domestic product in several different cases (quartiles) and deciles have a positive and significant effect on production, and it is possible to increase investment and decrease the value of the national currency in Iran.The effect of the variables of capital formation ratio on GDP, the degree of openness of the economy, the consumer price index on production in different quantiles (quartiles) and deciles is not asymmetric on production, so that in different quantiles of production (recession and economic prosperity), the reaction of production to these variables, Although They are different in appearance, but there is no statistically significant difference. Therefore, economic policy makers can use currency policies to influence production regardless of the issue of asymmetry in different business periods (recession and prosperity).

Experimental findings showed that the consumer price index and the degree of openness of the economy had a negative and significant effect on production in different quantities. Therefore, economic policy makers can control inflation in order to increase production.
Experimental evidence showed that although the effects of the variables of capital formation ratio on GDP and the degree of openness of the economy and the consumer price index and exchange rate on production were significant and their coefficients were slightlydifferent in different quantiles. But the tests of asymmetry of the coefficients of the variables It showed that the effects of all variables on production are not significantly different, in other words, the effects of the variables on production were symmetrical.

Economically, the rise in this indicator leads to increased uncertainty among economic actors, resulting in reduced investment and economic growth becoming a distant possibility. Given this issue, examining the factors influencing this phenomenon will play a crucial role in its control. It should be noted that the increase in social unrest is influenced by various cultural, social, political, and economic factors. One of the reasons for the rise of this phenomenon in societies is inequality. Increasing inequality in various dimensions leads to increased tension between different segments of society on the one hand, and between the government and the people on the other. However, which type of inequality has a greater impact on social unrest is a subject that has not received much attention in studies conducted in this field. Therefore, this study investigates the impact of different types of inequality (wealth, income, and gender) on the social unrest index in selected Middle Eastern countries during the period from 1995 to 2021, using the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) method. The results indicate that during the studied period, the estimated coefficients of income inequality, wealth inequality, and inflation are negative, while the estimated coefficient of per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is positive. Additionally, the estimated coefficient of the women's income share variable (reduction in gender inequality) is negative.

In the value added tax system, the purchases of each company are announced to it by the seller company. Therefore, if a company declares the tax less than the limit, or does not pay the relevant tax, this tax will be transferred to the next buyer, for this reason, all buyers and sellers will be placed in a self-control system. And this makes all companies register in the value added tax system. But its income performance can be weakened in the case of informal labor conditions. Because the incomes from informal labor activities are hidden and not reported. Informal labor has a two-way effect on value added tax revenues, because just as informal labor has an effect on value added tax revenues, value added tax can also have an effect on informal labor. The purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effect of informal labor on value added tax revenues in Iran's provinces using panel data in the years 2010 to 2018. The obtained results show that the relationship between informal labor and value added tax income is initially positive and after reaching a certain threshold level, the relationship becomes negative, which means that informal labor has a threshold point on value added tax income. Also, the results showed that the relationship between value added tax revenues and unemployment rate is negative and significant, and the relationship between value added tax revenues and population and GDP is positive and significant. Based on the obtained coefficients, the relationship between the value added tax of the previous period and the value added tax of thecurrent period is positive and significant. Also, the results show that the informal workforce is different in terms of size, and the effect on value added tax revenues in different provinces of Iran. An increase in the tax rate can generate less additional revenues than expected, and this is due to the mixed effect of informal labor, which results in a reduction of the VAT self-enforcement mechanism

Despite the importance and necessity of accurate statistics and appropriate sequence of data for economic analysis and policymaking, economic data in many developing countries, including Iran, are produced with low accuracy and frequency because of various reasons. Satellite images, especially night light images, with high accuracy and frequency has been used in recent years as an important source of information to estimate the level of economic activity in the world and specially in developing countries which have limited or not accurate data sets . In this paper, for the first time, a new generation of monthly night light data (VIIRS) has been collected, processed, refined and used to estimate the seasonal GDP of Iran. Results of this study show that using these data alongside with seasonal population estimation and seasonal dummy variables can achieve a very good estimation of Iran's Gross domestic product at the national level and hence these data are not manipulated they can be used for more purposes.

This study goes beyond the the prevailing use of averaged data to investigate the hidden evidence of asymmetry due to the effect of monthly exchange rate fluctuations on Iran's quarterly GDP during the period 1380:1-1397-4. For this purpose, the regression model of Mixed Data with different asymmetric frequency (MIDAS model) is use, which allows time series variables with different frequencies (eg daily, weekly and monthly) to be put together in a regression.The results showed that the Mixed Data with different frequency Approach compared to the same frequency model of these changes is statistically stronger and provides a better fit, and also the Exchange rate fluctuations have asymmetric effects on Iran's GDP, And depending on the number of optimal lags and the sources of changes, production gives different responses to different positive and negative shocks, So that Iran's gdp In response to the negative fluctuations of the exchange rate showing a stronger immediate reaction and more lasting effects. ue to the existence of asymmetric effects of currency shocks on production, it is suggested that policy makers should not consider the absolute value of the effects of positive and negative currency policies to be the same in regulating currency policies in order to advance macroeconomic goals.

The present study intends to use the Mixed Data Sampling model (MIDAS) to investigate the effect of exchange rate changes on the variable of real production in Iran during the period 1397:1  to1380:4  that Provides implement a flexibility model whit  high descriptive power, including variables of varying frequency (eg daily, weekly and monthly) together in a regression.The results of this study show that the MIDAS model is statistically strong in identifying the asymmetric dynamic effects of the independent variable with higher freuency (exchange rate changes) on the dependent variable with lower frequency (GDP) compared to the same frequency model of these variables and shows asymmetry better.Also, based on the obtained results, the intensity of the impact of the momentum and the persistence of each momentum are different, so that the negative momentum of the exchange rate has more intense and lasting effects on Iran's GDP.

The development of the debt market, as one of the pillars of the country's financial system, plays an important role in improving the allocation of investment resources as well as solving the problem of credit crunch. In this regard, the capital market, with its high potential, has designed and published a variety of Islamic financial instruments, and also according to the resolutions of the Jurisprudence Committee of the Securities and Exchange Organization, it has provided the possibility of trading a range of public and private sector bonds with various financing issues. So that private companies and especially the government have been able to use the high capacities of the country's capital market. Therefore, a detailed understanding of the challenges of the development of this market in Iran can play an important role as the first step in the growth and development of this market. Therefore, the current research aims to investigate the relationship between the Sukuk market and the GDP in Iran's economy from 2010 to 2021 in the form of seasonal data frequency using the Generalized Moments Model (GMM). The research results show that the Sukuk index has a positive effect on the GDP.

This study examines the correlation and causal relationship between energy carriers' consumption and Iran’s provinces' gross product for the period 1988-2017 using wavelet analysis with panel data and the Dumitrescu-Hurlin causality test. The results of correlation analysis show that the correlation pattern between energy consumption and GDP, in different energy carriers, is different. The correlation between natural gas, gasoline, kerosene, and electricity with GDP is strong at all energy intensity levels. The correlation between furnace oil and GDP is reported to be low and weak for all provinces in the long run. Furthermore, the findings show that in provinces with high energy consumption intensity, consumption of gasoline, fuel oil and total energy have led to GDP in the short run. In high-intensity cases, consumption of kerosene, gas oil, fuel oil and natural gas, in medium intensity all types of energy, and in low intensity, consumption of kerosene, furnace oil and gasoline have led to GDP. In provinces with very low energy consumption, energy carriers' consumption has not led to GDP while in the medium and long term, the feedback hypothesis is proven

The purpose of this study was to investigate the export function of Iranian agricultural products to neighboring countries. In order to achieve the objectives of the research we have employed an export function model inspired by Yan and Lee article and studied the effect of GDP variables, price ratios and exchange rates on Iran's agricultural exports. The data used here for the estimation of the research model were for the period 2008-2019 and have been processed via the econometric approach and the panel data method.According to the research findings, the effect of increasing GDP of neighboring countries on the export of Iranian agricultural products has been positive and significant. On the contrary, the price ratio and exchange rate ratio between Iran and neighboring countries turned out to have negative and significant influence on the export of Iranian agricultural products. These imply that growth in GDP of neighboring countries has increased the export of Iranian agricultural products to these countries while increasing the ratio of domestic prices to the prices of neighboring countries and increasing the domestic exchange rate relative to the exchange rate of neighboring countries have reduced the export of Iranian agricultural products.

During the coronavirus outbreak, Iranian government imposed social distancing and lockdown measures to reduce the number of infections. These policies caused economic activities disruption and the services are the most impacted, due to their need for human interactions. In this study, the economic growth modeling is used to investigate the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on total output, considering the effect of the sanctions. Also, the impact of coronavirus on the service sector is compared with other sectors. The study period is spring 2005 to winter 2021. The empirical results from the ARDL estimates shows the negative impact of coronavirus pandemic on gross domestic product. Furthermore, the estimation results revealed significant negative effect of COVID-19 outbreak on service sector, but the impacts on agriculture and industry sectors are not statistically meaningful.

In many developing countries, faced with the need to promote and strengthen the economy's long-term access to new technology, management know-how in many cases significantly associated with lack of resources, have floundered. Strengthen the local economy with a potential role in the shortage of foreign direct investment on economic growth in these countries is long-term. Therefore, this article tries to account 17 during the period 1990 to 2019 to analyze the impact of developing country foreign direct investment on economic growth in these countries will be discussed.In this study, the effect of labor variables, gross domestic fixed capital formation, the rate of economic openness and foreign direct investment on economic growth is estimated to selected countries.Also, although initially positive effect of FDI on economic growth, but this effect was reversed a year break and have a negative impact on the economy, which could be due to leakage of finance, technology, communications, human resources and vulnerability to be closed.

In this paper, we try to build a composite leading indicator to predict the business cycles of Iran. For this purpose, we consider non-oil GDP as our target variable. In the first part of this research project, Barakchian and Samaee (1398) evaluated the performance of 1590 macroeconomic time series individually in predicting the business cycles of Iran. These 1590 series were generated by 256 macroeconomic variables released by the Central Bank (including their original form of the variables and five transformations of them). Barakchian and Samaee (1398) showed that 25 time series out of all 1590 series perform the best in predicting the cycles when evaluated in terms of the criteria introduced in this literature (i.e. missed points, false alarms, late alarms, etc). In this paper, we compose these 25 time series to build a composite leading indicator which predicts the peaks and troughs of the business cycles well. Since the number of all the combinations generated by the 25 time series is too large to be computationally feasible to evaluate them, we first choose 16 time series out of these 25 series introduced by Barakchian and Samaee (1398) and then we generate all the possible combinations using these 16 series (with equal weights). This approach mounts to 65535 different combinations. Then we evaluate the performance of all these 65535 composite leading indicators in predicting the business cycles in terms of the criteria mentioned above. Our results show that a significant fraction of all these composite leading indicators perform very well: they don’t have any missed point, false alarm or late alarm. In the second part of the paper, we also take into account the time lag in releasing the data by the Central Bank. Since the main function of a composite leading indicator is to predict business cycles timely, accessing to data in real time is a major concern. So, we take this concern into account when choosing the 16 variables. In particular, the national accounts data are excluded from the data when building the composite leading indicator because of their long time lags when released by the Central Bank. Our results show that the following variables have the major role in the combination of the best composite leading indicators: price index of water, electricity and gas, imports' tax, corporate profits' tax, and the number of building permits

In recent years, economic sanctions have been discussed as one of the most important issues of the day in Iranian scientific forums. Given the different effects of sanctions on countries' trade and economic relations, it is important to address this issue from different angles.The purpose of this article is to construct a monthly index of sanctions against Iran in order to reflect the percentage of impact of the risks of sanctions imposed on the Iranian economy during the years 1978-2020.This index is made taking into account all the sanctions imposed and in terms of the weight of the importance of each sanctions, which is calculated based on the origin and nature of sanctions, assuming that the sanctions imposed by different institutions are independent.The results show that the index is highly correlated with the variables affected by sanctions in the Iranian economy, including oil production and exports, exchange rates and GDP, and can describe changes in these variables.

Banking industry is one of the most important sections all over the world. It plays a decisive role in development and economic growth of all countries. A glimse into this industry reveals that bank deposits are the most significant resources of financing for banks. In other words, since a considerable amount of banks capital is provided through deposits, banks will fail to exist without them. Moreover, exchange rate is one of the key factors which has a noticeable impact on different economic sections among which is bank industry. It is one of the undeniable variables which is given particular attention in economic policymaking. Accordingly, the purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of exchange rate fluctuations on bank deposits volume in Iran.  

There is two steps to this paper. Firstly, exchange rate fluctuations are calculated using the approch of ARCH/GARCH conditional variance. Then, using ARDL method, long-run and short-run corrolations during 1986-2017is investigated.  

The results of the paper indicate that: 1) there is a negative relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and bank deposits volume in Iran. In other words, if exchange rates swings increase, people will deposit less money in banks. 2) economic growth of Iran has a significantly positive relationship with the amount of exchange rate.  

There is a negative relationship between exchange rate fluctuations and the volume of bank deposits, ie with the decrease of exchange rate fluctuations, the amount of bank deposits increases, so it is necessary to adopt appropriate exchange rate policies to reduce exchange rate fluctuations and its negative effects on bank deposits.

The exchange rate fluctuations has both effect on the demand side of the economy as a whole (the net export channel) and the supply side (through the import of intermediate goods channel), it is important to examine its effects on production. It can provide appropriate policy recommendations for managing the country's economic demand. The purpose of this paper was to investigate the asymmetric short-run and long-run effects of the exchange rate on the GDP of selected countries using the NARDL-PMG approach. For this purpose, statistical information of selected countries for the period of 1990-2018 was used. In this study, using ARDL method with non-linear distribution interruptions, positive and negative exchange rate shocks have been extracted and in the form of panel data method, its effects on GDP of selected countries have been investigated. The results showed that the positive and negative shocks of the exchange rate had asymmetric and different effects on the GDP of the countries. The results showed that positive shocks in the exchange rate and an increase in it led to a decrease in GDP and negative shocks and a decrease in the exchange rate led to an increase in the GDP of countries.