جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "gdp growth" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد"

Examining the factors affecting the smuggling of goods as well as its effects on macroeconomic variables has been one of the most important issues in the field of macroeconomics. Examining this issue and its results has an important role in policy making in the field of goods smuggling. Considering this issue, the purpose of this article is to investigate the economic smuggling of goods as one of the obstacles to production using an empirical approach. Therefore, in this study, in addition to estimating the volume of smuggling in Iran during the period from 1971 to 2020, and investigating its impact on the gross domestic product, structural equation modeling was used. The findings of this study show that the average volume of goods smuggling in the period under review was about 22.53% of the official GDP. Also, based on other results of this study, smuggling as an obstacle to production has had a negative and significant impact on GDP at the 95% confidence level over the past 50 years.

Today, the banking sector is one of the most important pillars of the financial sector. In this study, while expressing the theories related to the relationship between Islamic banking and GDP growth, the effect of loans from Islamic banks as an indicator of Islamic banking activities on the GDP growth of 20 selected Islamic countries for the period of 2010-2017 has been evaluated and the panel vector autoregression model has been used in order to investigate the effect of variables of total banking activity, Islamic banking activity, inflation rate, government expenditures, trade openness and institutional quality on GDP growth. The results show that the relationship between Islamic banking activity and GDP growth is positive and significant. Also, the effect of inflation rate, institutional quality and trade openness on GDP is positive and significant and the effect of government expenditures and total banking activity on GDP growth is negative and significant. Therefore, countries with sound macroeconomic and institutional policies (prudent government expenditures, good regulatory frameworks and high institutional quality) have higher GDP growth.

The effect of Taxation on macroeconomics indicator has been a main factor for Fiscal policy making. VAT ACT is one of most important tax policy in Iran which has been executing as temporary law for ten years. The most important Issue between policy making in regard to VAT is whether it affect GDP positively or negatively. A crucial point for answering this question is identification of exogenous tax Shocks. In this research using Romer and Romer (2010) narrative approach, VAT exogenous Shocks are identified. Then with a vector autoregressive regression model and IRAN seasonal data (1387-1397) the effect of this shocks on GDP growth and growth of government expenditure is investigated. The results indicate that VAT shocks in the first period have a negative effect on economic growth and in subsequent periods this effect is not statistically significant. Also, VAT shocks have no significant effect on the growth of government expenditure.

Today brain drain is considered a significant phenomenon in developing countries. Brain drain is particularly important for countries in the Middle East and North Africa that are less developed and face disadvantages such as low economic growth and high unemployment rates. Typically, elites and specialists from less developed countries migrate to more developed countries to use the facilities of destination countries. Given the importance of human capital in theories of endogenous growth, brain drain can have deleterious effects for countries of origin. Therefore, this study examines the effect of brain drain on the economic growth of selected countries in the Middle East and North Africa. For this purpose, panel data was used to examine the relationship between the variables during the period 2015-2000. The results of the research indicate that there is a negative and significant relationship between brain drain and economic growth in such a way that a one percent increase in brain drain, with the assumption of the stability of other conditions, averaged 2.5% of production growth. The results of the research indicate that there is a negative and significant relationship between brain drain and economic growth in such a way that a one percent increase in brain drain, with the assumption of the stability of other conditions, averaged 2.5% of production growth.

The financial stability of banks and the prevention of bank failures are very important as the core of monetary and financial activities. This study analyzes the impact of macroeconomic variables on insolvency risk of Iranian banks. In this regard, 18 state and private banks were studied for period 1386-1395. To test the hypothesis, the multivariate regression analysis and Generalized Method of Moments based panel data are used. The results of testing hypotheses show that inflation and GDP growth has a significant and positive impact on the insolvency risk and the fixed assets and securities owned index (average price of a square meter of housing units in 32 selected cities), liquidity, oil revenues and state tax revenues has a significant and negative impact on the insolvency risk. Also, control variables including credit risk and liquidity risk has a significant and positive impact on the insolvency risk and capital ratio and bank size has a significant and negative impact on the insolvency risk.

The examination of Gross Domestic Production behavior and some sectoral and macro variables show that latter convey some useful information as leading indicators for forecasting GDP. So, the past information on these indicators helps to reduce the forecast error of GDP. The objective of this paper is to identify the leading indicators and to compare the ability of those in forecasting short run GDP growth. In this regard, fourteen leading indicators in 8 periods are evaluated. Moreover, the forecasts are compared with the ones with univariate ARMA method based on RMSE criteria. The results show the relative outperformance of forecasts with informal exchange rate, although the quality of leading indicators during different period is changing.

Considering the major impact which volatility in the oil prices has on various sectors of Iran's economy and the importance of that role in economic growth and development, this paper intends to investigate the effects of the volatility in oil prices on Iran's output growth for the period of 1968 to 2010. To that end, oil price volatility index has been estimated incorporating with EGARCH (0, 1) model using the Markov-Switching's nonlinear models to investigate the effects of the impact of oil price volatility on Iran's output growth. Estimations obtained through the Markov Switching models indicated that MSIAH model with two regimes out of the various MS model are the most suitable ones. The result of the estimations obtained through the Markov Switching models indicated that the oil price volatility index with considering two different regimes and lagging time intervals are significant and effect on the GDP growth and strongly influence of oil price volatility both two regimes had different and regime 1 stranger regime 2. The practical implications of these findings could be beneficial to the investors and policy makers who need to be aware of the exact nature of the effects which oil price volatility has on the economic growth.