جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « inflationary environment » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد »

This paper analyzed the effects of exchange rate pass-through with emphasis on the inflationary environment of Iran and the behavior of the Central Bank. Therefore,the STAR model during the period 2001:03 to 2019:04 was used. The results showed that GDP and the volume of money have a positive relationship and nominal interest rate, exchange rate and the central bank intervention have a negative relationship with the price index. The difference between the coefficients of the variables in the two regimes indicates that the effect of exchange rate and GDP growth on the price index in each regime is different. In the low exchange rate regime, the increase in the exchange rate causes a decrease and in the high exchange rate regime, the price index increases. There may be a causality relationship between exchange rates and inflation. That is, inflation increases with the increase in the exchange rate and the price of imported goods, and this inflation causes the exchange rate to rise again. On the other hand, the growth rate of the exchange rate in the impulse function is more than its deviations from the equilibrium which indicates the interventions of the Central Bank have been more to control the growth of the exchange rate. In fact, with this policy, the central bank has sought to control rising prices.

The main aim of this article is to estimate the volume liquidity shocks and its impact along with other effective variables on the exchange rate system’s survival in the 9 countries with an exchange rate anchor monetary system and the 20 countries with an inflation targeting monetary system during the period of 1999-2020. In order to achieve this objective, volume liquidity shocks were first estimated using the residual method, and then low and high inflationary environments were estimated using the Markov rotation method in Ox-Metrix version 7 software. Finally, the survival of foreign exchange systems has been estimated using the quasi-parametric method with the Weibull distribution in Stata software version 17. The main results of the estimation showed that positive and negative shocks had negative, positive and significant effects on the durability or survival of exchange rate systems in both groups of countries, respectively. Moreover, the variables of gross domestic fixed capital formation, the degree of openness and marginal cost have, respectively had positive, positive and negative effects on the survival of currency systems in the group of countries under investigation. The inflationary environment had a negative and significant impact on the survival and permanence of the exchange rate systems in both groups of countries, but the effect of nominal effective exchange rate volatility on the survival of the exchange rate anchor system was not significant due to the adopted exchange rate arrangements of a stabilized currency system with a 2% and limited fluctuation range, which reduces the possibility of aggravating instability.

The relationship between monetary policy shocks and total deposits of banks are one of the main important issues in monetary economics and banking literatures and has been considered empirically in recent years. Hence, the main aim of this paper is to evaluate the relationship among these variables by applying dynamic panel data approach for 23 private and governmental banks during the 2008-2019. 

For achieving this purpose, at first the inflationary environments have been extracted by Markov- Switching and then, by utilizing dynamic panel data and GMM estimator the short-run relationship between variables have been tested. 

The empirical findings of this paper indicated that the first order lag of bank deposits has a positive and significant effect on the volume of deposits in current year and its amount is equal to 0.17. Also, the variable of the interaction of liquidity growth rate with severe inflation environments and banks 'legal reserve ratio has a negative and significant effect on private banks' deposit volume and the variables of long-term deposit interest rate, real GDP growth rate and liquidity quality have a positive and significant effect on deposit volume. State-owned banks are positive and meaningful, consistent with theoretical expectations. The deposit profit rate has positive and other monetary policy variables such as liquidity growth rate and rule of deposits ratio and cross effect of liquidity money growth with inflationary environment have negative impact on the total deposits of Banks. Regarding the negative and significant effect of the interaction of liquidity growth rate with high inflation environments, it can be argued that with increasing liquidity and increasing demand, the general level of prices increases and consequently inflation rate increases and the economy enters a severe inflation environment, so expect as inflation intensifies, demand for deposits in banks will decrease and the incentive to invest in alternative environments such as the foreign exchange market, gold and other assets will increase. In addition, the value of Sargan test statistics indicates that the null hypothesis is not rejected and the instrumental variables defined in the model are valid. Because the value of this test statistic shows that the instrument variables defined are not correlated with the error terms. It is worth noting that in this estimate, due to the shorter period of time under study, the second-order interval of the volume of deposits of private and state-owned banks is considered as an instrument variable. According to the results of Arellano & Bond, it can be inferenced that the order of self-correlation between the disorder sentences was of the first order. Therefore, this method is a best method to eliminate the fixed effects of the model. 

Considering the negative and significant effect of the interaction of liquidity growth rate with inflationary environments on the deposit volume of the banking sector, it is suggested that economic policymakers apply contractionary monetary policies to control and decrease the volume of liquidity and control the general level of prices and inflation. Provide calm and gentle inflationary environments as well as increase the investment of individuals and legal entities with banks and help increase their deposits.

The main purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of monetary system survival (as an indicator for monetary policy stability) and inflationary environment on exchange rate pass-through (as measure of transitional effects of exchange rate fluctuations on the import price index) in 9 developing countries during 1999-2019. To this purpose, the inflationary environment index is estimated by Markov-switching model and its effect on monetary policy stability is estimated by Survival Model Approach. Then, the risk of monetary system failure is estimated by WEIBULL method and in the following, the effect of this variable with other explanatory variables is estimated by ARDL method on exchange rate pass-through. The results show the negative effect of the inflationary environment on the monetary system survival. Also, the monetary system survival, the inflationary environment, the nominal effective exchange rate and its instability will increase the exchange rate pass-through.

Since taxes in general and direct taxes in particular have negative effects on real output, and direct taxes are the main sources of government tax incomes, the effect of direct taxes on real output is an important concern for policy makers. On the other hand, taxes have different effects on real output in various economic environments; one of them is different inflationary environments. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of direct taxes on real gross domestic product in one of the most important environmental components; that is, inflationary environment in Iran's economy. Therefore, at first we used Markov Switching method to determine the different inflation regimes in Iran. Then, the effect of inflationary environments on the relationship between direct taxes and real output was estimated by using dummy variables. The results show the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship. The results indicate that when taxes increase in high inflationary environment, it has a negative and significant impact on real output. In effect, if taxes increase one percent, the real GDP reduce 0.448 percent. When there is a shift to low inflationary environment (the third regime), direct taxes have positive and significant effect on real output. In this regime, one percent increase in direct taxes cause real output to decrease by about 0.045 percent.

Exchange rate as one of the key variables of the economy plays an important role in determining the import price index. Therefore, knowledge of the empirical relationship between exchange rate and import price index, which is known in economic literature as Exchange Rate Pass-Through is important and can help economic officials on how choose their economic policies. Empirical studies conducted during the past decade show that the Exchange Rate Pass-Through on the import price index is affected by many factors such as inflation. According to the fact that during the last three decades, Iran's economy has experienced relatively high and persistent rate of inflation, in this study by using time series data over the period of 1971- 2012, examined the role of inflation in exchange rate pass-through to the import price index.Results indicate an incomplete pass-through of exchange rates to the import price index. The results also indicate that the exchange rate pass- through to import price index increases in high and intermediate levels of inflation, however, the pass-through in the high inflation level is lower than intermediate inflation.