جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « تحلیل تاثیر متقابل » در نشریات گروه « مدیریت »

Aluminum cans are the most sustainable type of packaging in all directions that can be studied and studied economically in addition to the profound environmental impacts. The following article is taken from a study that examines the future of Aluminum Drink Cans market in Iran. The type of research method used was mixed (a combination of quantitative and qualitative). The methods used were: sleep, Delphi, cross-impact analysis, and scenario writing. In different sections, various tools such as questionnaires, semi-structured in-depth interviews, as well as several software such as Micmac and Senario wizard and 24 SPSS (for quantitative data analysis) were used. The 27 key factors out of the 50 key factors influencing the future of the market were identified by the Delphi method. Then, using the Mac software, five key factors influencing the future of the market (including economic sanctions, international relations, inflation, exchange rate fluctuations and management practices) were identified. Then, five key effective factors were entered into the Wizard Scenario software for scenario development. Finally, economic sanctions and management practices were selected as the main variables for the formulation of the final scenarios, and given the likely conditions ahead, four scenarios were presented for the future of the industry's market. The most likely scenario facing the Aluminum Drink Cans market in Iran shows favorable conditions. On the other hand, the critical conditions of external and internal market factors are not unexpected either.

Developed within the past decades as a key concept in international and power relations, soft power emphasizes diplomacy, culture, art, and propaganda instead of hard and coercive aspects of power. As soft power affects the international prestige and credit of countries, this applied exploratory study sought to elaborate on the role of soft power and its componential elements in attracting foreign tourists. The theoretical population of the study comprised fifteen experts in soft power and tourism who were selected via convenience sampling. To conduct the study, twenty-seven factors were identified by reviewing the related literature on tourism and soft power. The factors were then screened via the Binomial test, out of which seventeen factors were excluded due to their over 5% significance coefficient. The remaining ten factors were then analyzed using the cross-impact analysis (CIA) technique.The results of the study indicated that successful organization of political, artistic, scientific, sports, and literary events at the international level, the presence of foreign companies in the business environment of Iran, cyberspace and social networks, and improving tolerance among influential reference groups in society contributed the most to attracting tourists to Iran. The study was also replicated using the DEMATEL method, producing very similar results compared to the previous test, and the same four factors were identified as the most influential factors in attracting foreign tourists. It should be noted that the DEMATEL method and cross-impact analysis are based on a critical realism approach, considering the fact that they both enjoy structural analysis.

The tourism industry is one of the largest and most profitable economic sectors in the world, tourism creates high added value, has become one of the largest and fastest growing economic sectors in the world in the division of the most important sources of income in the world, religious tourism As one of the most important branches of the tourism industry, it is one of the most lucrative sectors of this industry in the world. Using the science of futures research, the present study aims to provide a clear view of the future of religious tourism in Mashhad to planners and tourists. In this study, by studying the literature and interviewing tourism industry experts, the effective factors were identified and then using the interaction analysis approach, the data were entered into Mic Mac software and four key factors affecting the future of religious tourism in Mashhad were identified. Security and tranquility, a positive image of the destination, travel expenses and tourist satisfaction were selected from nineteen influential factors. In the next step, to develop the scenario, four key effective factors were determined by the experts by entering the uncertainty scenarios in the questionnaire into the script wizard software and the most compatible scenarios were identified. After identifying the scenarios and consulting with experts, security, tranquility and travel costs were selected to develop the scenarios and according to the conditions, the future of religious tourism in Mashhad was presented in the form of four scenarios based on the key factors in each scenario

 Science and Technology Parks are organizations that work by creating the necessary infrastructure for the development of innovation and technology through competition and the integration of technology companies, and are managed by professional managements to achieve this goal. The purpose of this study is to investigate the Cross Impact Analysis of driving force that, in addition to being effective and influential than other driving force, are most important for the development of these organizations. This study, considering the multiplicity of factors affecting the management of science and technology parks, examines the effect of these factors on each other and on the management of these parks as a dependent variable. In terms of purpose, the research method is practical. The required data to analyze the interaction of causes were obtained through expert opinions and by Delphi method, and the interaction of propellants with MicMac software was analyzed. The statistical population of this study is experts and managers in the field of science and technology, and sampling has been done consecutively based on the method of snowball until the adequacy of the respondents has been reached. Based on the results, factors such as effective support for the park as a development center, creating a value chain of technology, commercialization of science and technology, the ability to transfer, disseminate and absorb technology, market risks and facilitate the export of technological products in management of science and technology parks, have the most strategic position in the development of these organizations. Introduction By studying successful and progressive organizations, we conclude that they have intelligently pursued the role and effectiveness of capable management in dealing with these conditions in pursuing their goals in relation to effective environmental developments and current challenges. By adopting effective and comprehensive strategies and programs in using efficient methods - considering the effective factors in this field in discovering talents and finding talented and capable people and creating a suitable space for investment - in the first place inside the organization and in the later stages outside the organization, they have achieved success (Faems, 2005). Therefore, it is necessary that science and technology parks, which create the necessary infrastructure to support companies located in the park, contribute to the development of the economics of students in society; be aware of the internal and environmental factors that affect your performance. About two decades ago, the first scientific and research town of Isfahan was established in 2000 in Iran. Now 43 parks and about 200 growth centers of technology units have been set up in the country. Reflecting on studies of science and technology parks, we find that most of them have used common categories and formats to explain the factors and components that affect these organizations. However, this study presents a new category of driving force of these organizations, which based on the social, economic, and political conditions of Iran with an approach to the future of research. Given the multiplicity of factors influencing the management of science and technology parks, the main question of this study is what is the effect of these factors on each other and on science and technology parks as a dependent variable? In addition, which of these factors influencing science and technology parks is the most influential and influential among the other factors in this study called driving force. Which could be the basis for future studies in science and technology parks. Case study The statistical population of this study is experts and managers in the field of science and technology, and sampling has been done consecutively based on the method of snowball until the adequacy of the respondents has been reached. According to the research topic, respondents should have sufficient knowledge and experience in the field of science and technology to be able to judge the effect of each factor on each other in detail, so these people should have the following characteristics / competencies:. They should have: - Must have at least 10 years of experience at the managerial / strategic levels in field of science and technology -Have specialized knowledge and well-known in the field of science and technology management Research Methodology According to the purpose this research is applied one, and based on the research method carried out by Delphi method. In other words, in the first part of the research in order to review the literature and background of the research, using the method of documentary studies have been used and the theoretical framework of the research was developed. Also, the required data on the Cross Impact Analysis of driving force have been collected and analyzed based on the opinions of experts and by Delphi method. The tools used in this study are to analyze the Cross Impact Analysis. Before performing the first round of Delphi, the validity of the questionnaire was examined through the method of approval of the focus group along with the holding of the panel of experts. In addition, in order to evaluate the reliability of the research, Cronbach's alpha coefficient has been calculated, which is at an acceptable level. Experts' opinions regarding the comparison of a pair of 18 selected drivers of science and technology parks as effective factors on these organizations have been summarized in the form of a two-dimensional matrix analysis of the interaction of the leaders and then analyzed with Micmac software. Discussion and Results Therefore, the driving force that have the most strategic position are as follows: 1. Effective support for the park as a regional development center and long-term investment 2. Creating a technology value chain and establishing international companies by interacting with other parks around the world 3. Commercialization of science and technology 4.Ability to transfer, disseminate and absorb technology 5.Market risks (currency risk and inflation risk) and trade 6.Facilitate export of technological products 7. Sustainability of the macro economy and investment security in the region 8.Variety in the provision of financial resources for the development of technology, including bold investment VC, investment angels and ... 9.The share of research and development budget from the country's GNp < br /> 10. Competency, knowledge and expertise in park management Suggestion • Design and establishment of a comprehensive quality assurance system in science and technology parks • • Reviewing the rules and regulations related to the appointment of managers of science and technology parks and recruiting human resources in order to establish a meritocracy system in the management of science and technology parks. • Efforts to complete the chain of ideas to product and commercialize the achievements through • Ensuring that policies are monitored and implemented, and that efforts are made to streamline and develop technology policies. • Increasing the impact of network technologies on the development of science and technology parks • Avoidance of policymakers and those in charge of the country's economy from hasty behaviors that lead to market turmoil. • Increasing the financial resources required for the development of technology, and especially increasing the budget for R&D activities, is increasing exponentially and based on the economic realities of the country until reaching the intended goal in the country's R&D development document

Housing sector is one of the pioneer sectors of every economy that attention to that moreover deep social and cultural influences and making jobs in building sector and dependent sectors, by means of influence on consuming expenditures and investment, effects strongly on gross domestic product changes and economical fluctuations. Also in recent years, this industry always has faced with splendor and stagnancy. so in this research, housing industry with regard to importance and it`s role in economical development and public welfare, with financial view investigated as Futures study. As identifying effective key factors on investment and future profitability of housing industry are important, this research with using ultra disciplinary of futures study intends to apply recognitional instruments and scenario writing, presents a clear view of future of Iran housing industry to programmers and investors. because of this research is done with general and comprehensive view related to research variables, results of this research can be generalized to housing industry of country. in this research with studying subject literature and interview with experts of housing industry, effective factors on research variables are identified and next, with using cross impact analysis approach, data entered to Mic-mac software and 4 effective key factors on future of investment and profitability are specified including economical sanctions, scale of government investment in housing sector, economical splendor and stagnancy, scale of access to infrastructural networks that are selected among 40 effective factors. in next phase, for writing scenarios, 4 effective key factors with specifying uncertainty states in questionnaire by experts, entered to Scenariowizard software and the most consistent future forthcoming scenarios of housing industry specified . After identifying scenarios and consult experts, economical sanctions and scsle of government investment in housing sector selected for writing scenarios and with regards to their conditions, future of housing industry presented in the form of 4 scenarios.