جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « futures studies » در نشریات گروه « مدیریت »

Organizational training, as one of the most important needs of modern organizations to survive in the current changing conditions, will be valuable and effective when, in the light of it, employees can acquire new knowledge, attitudes and skills, according to the current and future needs of the organization and use it. Currently, these trainings are planned, implemented and evaluated based on a series of specific models which have an almost similar process; But in none of these models, either explicitly or implicitly, there is no mention of the need for foresight and futures studies in its steps, which due to the wide dynamics of the environment and the need to adapt trainings to future changes is worth considering. With this definition, in this review article, which is written with the aim of examining the necessity of developing organizational training patterns by using the futures studies approach and descriptive analytical method; After reviewing the previous researches about "organizational training", "futures studies" and "training in the future perspective" and proving the existing scientific gap in the field of "futuristic approach in organizational training patterns and models" and then examining "the relationship between training and futures studies" and "the Aspects of Relation between organizational training planning and futures studies"; It has been concluded that adopting a futuristic approach in the process of organizational training and development of current conventional patterns is a serious necessity for today's organizations.

In the Islamic perspective, "humanization" and "civilization" are two fundamental pillars essential for achieving the ultimate divine objectives, each possessing an irreplaceable luster. The Holy Qur'an views the purpose of sending messengers as fostering humanization, which is the primary goal of creation, making the establishment of civilization crucial to creating an environment conducive to humanization. Moreover, the unique Islamic capacities across various dimensions demonstrate the strength of Islamic civilization on a global scale. Among the most significant and profound discussions to date are the thoughts and opinions of the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution on modern Islamic civilization. These discussions have distinctive features in the realms of civilization research, development, and the future of the Islamic world. This article, therefore, concentrates on his perspectives to gather and examine the catalysts and conditions necessary for the emergence of a modern Islamic civilization through future studies. The research adopts an exploratory-mixed approach using qualitative methods, including document review, text analysis, and interviews with seven experts, to compile the elements and drivers of modern Islamic civilization as envisioned by the Supreme Leader. In the quantitative phase, an expert survey and questionnaire were employed to validate and rank each prerequisite and driver for the advent of modern Islamic civilization. The research findings highlight prerequisites such as a forward-looking approach to civilization, systematization, and management model excellence, along with lifestyle adjustments. Additionally, drivers like science and technology, the unity of Islamic nations, and spirituality are identified as some of the most crucial aspects articulated in the Supreme Leader's intellectual framework.

So far, many of the reliable future studies texts have pointed out the necessity of using various methods in future studies research, but they have often left the method of its application to the initiative of the researcher, thus witnessing a kind of confusion. The spill is in this area. Therefore, this research is presented with the aim of applying the strategy of mixed or triangled research in the framework of futures studies research.

This research is theoretical in point of view of its goal and Its approach is comparative, analytical and intuitive, and also from the point of view of data collection, it is analytical-exploratory.

In this article, common methods in future studies were reviewed with a glimpse of their intended applications in military fields, and through the necessity of pluralism among disciplines and with the help of the triangle research strategy, a system for quantitative and qualitative methods used in future research was presented. And it was tried to generalize this system to both abstract (revelation) and experimental methods.

The real estate market is one of the largest economic sectors in Iran, which has always been the focus of the government, this market is considered one of the main wheels and engines of the Iranian economy, the stagnation of this market has harmful effects on people's lives and various sectors of the economy. On the other hand, the growth and development of the real estate sector causes economic growth and the growth and development of other industries related to real estate.Since the real estate sector and everything that happens in this market has a significant impact on the state of the country, the issue of proper management of this market is very important. This research deals with the future forecasting of the presence of new technologies (block chain) in this field and how to transition from traditional management to modern management of this market in the future.In this research, based on the opinions of the elites, the effective factors in real estate management were extracted, and then, using the cross-analysis approach, the data was entered into the MicMac software, and the important and key drivers were identified. In the next step, based on the questionnaire that was entered into the scenario wizard software by the elites, the possible scenarios were expressed based on the key drivers, and in the last part, opportunities and challenges and the model proposed by the researcher were discussed.

Based on the competition and product variety in the automotive industry, auto makers require to achieve capability to respond properly to customers and their competitors. The special position of after-sales service in automotive industry and also maintain the existing customers and attract the new ones, makes the prediction and measurement of customer satisfaction as a must in this industry.

In this paper, using prediction approach in futures studies, has made us firstly to identify the influential factors on customer satisfaction. Then the customer satisfaction level has been predicted and analyzed in after-sales service of dealers in an automotive manufacturer.

The statistical population includes the dealers of Saipayadak Co. The statistical sample includes 14486 of after-sales service dealers in the period of April 2017 to June 2017. Independent variables, after extracting through literature review, were finalized using brainstorming and fishbone diagrams. Statistical analysis and prediction was performed using stepwise regression method with coding in RStudio software.

By using data mining method, the customer satisfaction score in after-sales service of dealers in Saipayadak Co. has been predicted with 80% accuracy.

By knowing the customer satisfaction level, auto makers can define quality improvement projects and move toward to competitiveness desirably.

This research has been done with the aim of developing Iran's banking scenarios with an emphasis on big data. The current research is practical in terms of orientation and exploratory in terms of the goal. It is also mixed in terms of its philosophical, pragmatic and methodological foundations. To carry out the research in the first stage, 20 key drivers of the research were extracted through literature review and interviews with banking and technology experts. After screening with the fuzzy Delphi method, 8 factors were removed and the rest were evaluated with the Marcus decision making technique. The findings of the research show that the two factors of "technology regulation" and "technology transfer costs" were chosen as key uncertainties for developing research scenarios. Based on these two key uncertainties, four scenarios were developed based on interviews with the focus group with the titles of comprehensive banking, static banking, searching banking, wandering banking. In the comprehensive banking scenario, everything is in its optimal state; Technology transfer costs have decreased and regulators are supportive of the technologies. According to the findings of the research, considering drivers, key uncertainties and alternative scenarios by managers and decision makers can improve the performance and increase the competitive advantage of banks.

Financial innovations has been challenged the banking sector and can improve it. They cover a variety of financial businesses such as online lending, asset management platforms, trading management, mobile payment platforms, etc. All these services generate a large amount of data every day (Hasan et al, 2020: 1). Analyzing this volume of data is difficult, giving rise to the concept of "big data" (Munawar et al, 2020: 2). Big data as one of the important fields of future technology has attracted the attention of various industries (Raguseo & Vitari, 2018: 5206). In general, big data refers to a large volume of structured or unstructured data that is generated and stored at a high speed (Dicuonzo et al, 2019: 41). Big data has found its position in the banking industry; Because of the useful data they have stored in recent years (Rakhman et al, 2019: 1632). Recent applications of big data in banking have been for improving customer relationship management, marketing, optimizing strategic management and human resources (Parmar, 2018: 33; Hassani et al, 2018: 2). Therefore, it can be said that nowadays big data plays a major role in providing financial and banking services, and the realization of its potential benefits in banking is more from technical aspects and affects the organizational structure of banking and mobilizes a large number of different actors (Diniz et al, 2018: 151- 152). With changes in customer expectations and increased competition, the banking industry is no longer able to ignore technological innovations in the banking sector. Due to the numerous applications and benefits of big data in various industries, including the banking industry, and it's becoming more widespread in the future, this technology is becoming a prominent research topic (Phan & Tran, 2022: 6.)

What are the plausible scenarios for banking in Iran with an emphasis on big data?

Many studies conducted in the field of banking and big data deal with the role of big data in improving the performance of the banking industry (for instance: Shakya & Smys, 2021; Gonsalves & Jadhav, 2020; Hung et al, 2020; Parmar, 2018). Also, another part of the studies conducted with a future research approach in the banking sector without focusing on innovative financial technologies and specifically big data (for instance: Baumgartner & Peter, 2022; Eskandari et al,2020). The focus on innovative banking and financial technologies with a Futures Studies approach has been weak (for instance: Maja & Letaba, 2022; Murinde et al, 2022; Hajiheydari et al, 2021; Broby, 2021; Harris & Wonglimpiyarat, 2019). And the role of big data in the Futures Studies of the banking industry has been seen to be very limited due to the relatively large amount of data available in banks and its effect on performance and gaining a competitive advantage (for instance: Valero et al, 2020). Therefore, despite the studies conducted in the field of banking and big data, some of these researches have paid attention to the present time, and the researches conducted in the future of the banking industry have also been without focusing on the role of big data. Now, the most important theoretical gap in research is the lack of studies on the future of banking in Iran with an emphasis on big data.

The current research is pragmatism due to the use of qualitative and quantitative methods from the perspective of philosophical foundations. It is also exploratory in terms of purpose due to the identification of drivers and practical in terms of direction due to the application of the results in the analysis of the future of banking in Iran. In the current research, two methods of literature review and interviews with experts are used to identify drivers, both of which are qualitative methods. According to Popper, the interview tool is based on the expert dimension. The literature review is evidence-based and uses articles and scientific texts to identify factors. Fuzzy Delphi, which is semi-quantitative and evidence-based, is used to screen and determine key drivers that require great accuracy. Then, to determine the key uncertainties, the MARCOS technique is used based on the importance and uncertainty indicators of the Global Business Network (GBN) approach, which is a quantitative and evidence-based technique. Finally, interviews with focus groups are used to write the scenario, which is a qualitative method based on the expert dimension. The theoretical community of the research includes academic experts and managers of the banking sector and are aware of new banking and financial technologies (Fintechs) and specifically big data. The selection of the participants is based on their knowledge and nobility of the research topic and the importance of their presence in the research, and finally 15 people were selected by purposeful sampling using the snowball method. Experts have at least 10 years of relevant work experience and a master's degree.

This research has clarified the situation of this area by identifying the shaping factors and drivers of the future of banking in Iran. Two factors of "technology regulation" and "technology transfer costs" were chosen as key uncertainties for developing research scenarios. Based on these two key uncertainties, four scenarios were developed based on interviews with the focus group with the titles of comprehensive banking, static banking, searching banking, wandering banking. In the comprehensive banking scenario, everything is in its optimal state; Technology transfer costs have decreased and regulators are supportive of the technologies. Considering drivers, key uncertainties and alternative scenarios by managers and decision makers can improve the performance and increase the competitive advantage of banks.

After the collapse of the former Soviet Union, the United States introduced itself as the first power in the world and was able to gain a dominant position in the international arena with significant superiority in the political, military and economic fields, but currently, signs based on the political decline of this country are visible. Is. Therefore, the current research, with the future-oriented method of layer-by-layer analysis of the causes and in an exploratory way, seeks to identify the causes of the decline of American power in the geometry of the new world order. The research is of mixed applied type (qualitative and quantitative) and its data has been collected by reviewing documents, documents and library studies as well as interviews by holding two expert panels. The research approach is to use the future research method of layered analysis of causes. The results of interviews and qualitative studies were considered in the form of a researcher-made questionnaire at the disposal of a community of 73 experts. The collected data were analyzed using statistical methods and SPSS software. The findings of the research showed 47 causes, of which 17 causes are at the level of litany, 10 are at the level of causal systems (social, economic and cultural), 11 are at the level of discourse and worldview, and finally 9 are at the level of metaphors and myths. which are considered as the effective causes of the decline of American power in the geometry of the new world order.

Social capital is an asset and credit derived from social relations. Having this capital will facilitate the advancement of affairs, reduce costs and save capital. Its importance is such that its existence leads to the effectiveness and optimization of affairs for the exploitation of other assets. However, so far the measures taken to prevent the reduction of this valuable capital have not been successful and it is also necessary to identify the factors affecting the state of social capital and the effects and consequences it can have. In this study, using the method of layer analysis of causes as one of the future research methods to deeply investigate the cause of a phenomenon in different layers, the factors affecting the state of social capital in four layers have been identified. Accordingly, these factors are defined and categorized in four layers of litany, system, worldview and metaphors, and based on this, the existing capacities in the province to improve the status of social capital in these four layers have been determined. The results show that paying attention to the effective factors in the lower layers such as worldview and discourse as well as the effective factors of the myth and metaphor layer can greatly help the problem of reducing social capital and by applying strategies based on this method can be He was more hopeful of promoting social capital.

Public trust in government todays faces serious and increasing challenges which have doubled the necessity of trying to influence its future trend. This study has been done with foresight approach and aims to identify strategic factors affecting the future of public trust in Islamic Republic of Iran on the horizon 2045. This research in terms of nature is descriptive-analytical and methodologically is based on mixed approach (qualitative-quantitative). Therefore, after conducting library studies and literature review and interviews with experts, a list of effective factors of public trust in Islamic Republic of Iran by using Delphi method was found and then these factors were minimized from 58 to 15 items. Then, by using structural analysis and the Cross-Impact Matrix was designed and by forming a panel consisting 11 experts and gathering their opinions about these factors, necessary data were entered into the matrix. By analyzing collected data, the influence of each factor was evaluated in MICMAC software. According to the results of this research, five factors including "combating corruption", "transparency", "not preferring of individual interests on public interest", "realization of social justice", and "honesty and integrity of the authorities" were identified as strategic effective factors on the future of public trust in Islamic Republic of Iran.

Social capital encompasses concepts such as participation, trust, and cooperation among members of a group or society. Understanding social capital correctly can contribute to societal progress, development, and enhanced social, economic, and political performance and efficiency. Rulers and policymakers have long been concerned with the development and governance of social capital. This article aims to identify the key factors influencing the future of social capital and examine their mutual effects, considering a horizon of 2031 through a structural analysis approach. The research is applied in nature, employing reliable sources, document review, and field methods (questionnaires and expert panels) as complementary techniques. Participants were a group of experts chosen purposively based on their analytical assistance potential for the research objectives. Nineteen experts were involved in the study through conscious selection. The results suggest an uncertain future for Iran's social capital, emphasizing the need for governors and policymakers to focus on identifying and managing strategic and critical components related to this issue. The research analyzes nine significant factors influencing the future of social capital and provides recommendations for its maintenance and improvement.

This research in terms of purpose; Functional and in nature; It is descriptive-analytical, Which combines futures research methods; In order to answer what is the identification of future variables affecting the separation of powers in the constitutional rights of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Then, the scient metric software "VOSviewr" was used to draw the relationship between the effective variables of the future. Out of 45 counted propellants, 31 propellants were identified as variables in favor of segregation, 4 propellants were considered as conditional (relative) and 10 propellants were counted as variables opposed to segregation. According to the software, 17 most used words were identified from the words related to the separation of powers and constitutional rights, until 2010, and 18 most used words were identified from 2018 onwards. In addition to the emphatic impulses, the ruling of the Supreme Leader will be a key and vital impetus due to its moderating and unblocking role in various contexts (tribune phenomenon).

It is very important to understand the nature of research in an academic field and the behavior of researchers in that field, especially in the case of interdisciplinary categories. The resulting understanding helps planners and researchers to have a more accurate road map to improve the future situation while understanding the past and present situation. This is also true for futures studies, especially since futures studies is inherently about the future situation, and understanding the past and its present shows which futures we have paid more attention to and which futures we have neglected. To reach this understanding, scientometric studies are needed, and in this research, its tools were used to analyze futures studies articles published in Iranian scientific journals. The population of this research was 920 articles published in the field of futures studies. The results showed what the co-authorship network looks like based on the centrality measures. Also, eight topic clusters were identified in this field and their position in the strategic diagram was determined. "Geographers in love with the future" cluster was identified as a cluster with high centrality and density. Also, "strategic foresight" and "futuristic higher education" clusters were introduced as immature and underdeveloped clusters. "Knowledge development", "Religious future", "Regional relations" and "Heavy weight of method" clusters were placed in the declining and emerging region, and the "ICT perspective" cluster was recognized as a non-core cluster.

The purpose of this article is to present a model that can relate the statement of the second step of the Islamic Revolution to the program documents of the country and provide the basis for its implementation, and for this purpose, the theoretical literature of strategic foresight models has been used as a model for implementation. The statement should be localized.For this purpose, the initial model was designed with the help of documentary and library studies, and then the resilience of the model was measured in different dimensions using expert interviews and questionnaires.The final model has been obtained in such a way that, based on the statement of the second step, macro-futuristic approaches should be extracted and then the cognitive-normative frameworks of the second step of the revolution should be obtained. In the continuation of the Iranian Islamic model document, the progress based on it is rewritten and macro and national (or partial) perspectives are compiled based on this document and in time horizons of less than 40 years. Under these perspectives, a strategic monitoring process is implemented and at the end, policy documents are produced for implementation.In order to implement the document of the second step, the entire document must first be broken into some major national issues, and then for each issue, the country's policy documents (such as the Iranian Islamic model of progress) should be modified and compiled, and then smaller documents such as vision, macro strategies, Policy documents and... should be compiled.

Nowadays, adventure tourism guarantees sustainable tourism precisely because of its proximity to nature and the aim of responsible preservation of natural resources. This research explores the propellant and influencing forces on the development of adventure tourism. A practical, quantitative-qualitative, and exploratory method develops possible scenarios based on the future research approach. Data analysis was done using crass-impact balance analysis and forming a group of experts. The metaphors of headwaters, ponds, deserts, and swamps were presented to draw the vision of scenarios and to describe and predict the future of adventure tourism in 1410. The results of four robust, compatible, and probable scenarios indicate that the narrative of the swamp reveals the instability of the development of adventure tourism in Iran. Iran is very capable of becoming a destination for adventure tourism. Considering the influential role of tourism in the economy and society, corrective and targeted solutions for the sustainable development of tourism are inevitable for a hopeful future.

Risky is the primary feature of adventure tourism. Processing data and information on the sustainable development variables, safety, natural resources, health, adventure activity resources, entrepreneurship, humanitarian, infrastructure, cultural resources, and the image of the adventure brand Adventure Tourism Development Index (ATDI) provide this possibility to by exploring and understanding assemble the course of evolution and the influence of determining factors on the sustainable development of adventure. It provides possession of researchers, policies, beneficiaries, and local communities. Thinking about the future requires specific language and techniques in order to predict the future. Scenarios can express any targeted and planned management in the form of predictable elements and uncertainties. The importance of foresight in the tourism industry has caused scenario-based planning to be referred to as the backbone of tourism (Postma, 2015, p. 46). Adventure tourism is significantly higher than the average growth rate of global tourism (Schott, 2007, p. 264). Kumar & Deshmukh (2022) predict the value of adventure tourism to reach $1,169,095 million by 2028, from $112,227 in 2020, with an annual growth rate of 20%. In this research, we show, by examining the two concepts of sustainable tourism and adventure tourism, that tourism as an intervening activity in the environment has essential effects on destination communities. Iran’s adventure tourism rank and position is a flip to investigate the reasons for inattention to this pioneer industry and to identify and narrate its compatible and probable scenarios.

The future study tries to determine the aims and values, describe the trends, and specify the conditions of realization and situations to draw different pictures of the future and evaluate and select alternative policies and plans. One of the methods of future study is scenario codification, in which two or more different scenarios or texts are usually written about the future of the subject that is most likely to occur. This research is applied, descriptive-analytical, and quantitative-qualitative. Generally, the scenario planning process is based on five steps: identification of context scenarios; recognition of influential factors; analysis of key factors; scenario production; scenario transfer (Kosow & Gaßner, 2008, p. 25). The data is a combination of a bibliographic and systematic review of tourism research in general and adventure tourism in particular. Statistical data processing and expert opinions were done by forming a Delphi panel and completing the mutual effects questionnaire. Variables were collected by examining previous research; the statistical population is the activists, employees, and tourists of the Iranian tourism industry, and the sample size consists of 12 tourism experts and activists, especially adventure tourism. The analysis of exploratory and probable scenarios through Scenario Wizard software deals with possible futures with a horizon of 1410.

The analysis of the findings was completed by using the main stages of future studies by Voros (2005). In this model, field identification and propellant forces have been obtained from the global index of adventure tourism. ATDI 2020 shows the weak position of Iran with a rank of 91 among 163 developing countries (Less than the global average). The three main factors of security and hosting, adventure, and preparation are influential in determining the index; each of these factors includes a set of variables that significantly impact the development of adventure. The Crass-Impact balance analysis method is used in scenario analysis, which is a qualitative technique for analyzing influence networks. Each variable with a range of different current situations was exposed to the four concepts of development, continuity, destruction, and crisis. In the best case, the possible and compatible scenarios obtained from the consensus of experts reflect the continuation of the current situation. Finally, an intense scenario and three scenarios with high compatibility and higher probability of occurrence were presented, indicating the continuation of the current trend and the crisis in the medium-term future. The two propellant forces of sustainable development and the image of the adventure brand form the two heads of the model due to their importance and uncertainty. The metaphors of headwater, pond, desert, and swamp were presented to draw the vision of scenarios and to describe and predict the future of adventure tourism in 1410.

A strong and probable scenario can be realized by predicting the swamp narrative on the horizon of 1410 unless they are replaced by a change in the attitude towards specific tourism, the social participation of the host community in the planning and development process, rational and embodied policies and most importantly, efficient reforms of out of access scenarios. Iran’s geographical conditions and economic and social characteristics are an opportunity for the future of adventure tourism. Educated, professional, and interested audiences accept many of the cultural constraints and barriers of the local community and act responsibly towards cultural resources. In the direction of the research aim, a set of policy, management, and research solutions are presented in this field. This enables tourism policies and planners to answer these two questions in the future, what will we do? Furthermore, how should we do it? Make a decision

Futurism can be considered the science of discovering futures and building a desirable future. One of these methods, especially in the field of issues that have multiple stakeholders with non-convergent tendencies and which is used to analyze the results of negotiations and disputes; It is the Game theory. For this reason, the investigation of new developments in game theory methodology in Iran was chosen as the main topic of the current research. Based on this, it can be pointed out that the main question of the current research is: "What are the new developments in the methodology of game theory in Iran and its developments in the field of futures research?". Game theory is a kind of rational choice theory and also the specialized and mathematical form of the wise actor model in decision theories. The method used in the present study was meta-analysis and library research. After reviewing the database of Magiran with the keyword "game", 1000 articles that used the game method in their research were reviewed in several rounds, and finally 43 articles in the field of futures studies that used the game method in their research were selected and 8 dimensions includes: Exploratory or normative, time horizon, subject, source, data type, combination of method with other methods, interaction-oriented or expert-centered and depth of method used in research were examined. Based on research Result; Game theory has been used mostly in a normative way, without a time horizon, in economic and political issues, using library resources, quantitative and qualitative combination, without combining with other methods, without referring to experts and with appropriate depth in researches. Finally, recommendations for the use of game theory method in futures research were presented.

The ability to imagine what will probably happen is one of the most important characteristics of successful companies, and it will be even more so if this company is a knowledge-based company whose basis of competition and competitive advantage is based on knowledge. Therefore, in this research, an attempt has been made to formulate possible scenarios and, as a result, appropriate strategies for these companies, by looking ahead to competitive advantage components in knowledge-based companies. This research is applied in terms of purpose and in terms of method it is survey type and exploratory level. The statistical population of this research was made up of 97 managers and experts in 46 science-based companies located in Shiraz Chemical Industries Technology Town and Science-based Fatko Holding, which according to the type and stages of the research, groups of 15 people, 7 people and 6 people were selected judiciously. Investigating the literature of the first stage, 4 main political, strategic, economic, financial, socio-cultural and technological categories were selected by reviewing the subject literature, and then 30 components were identified by re-using the subject literature and interviewing experts, and then using the opinion of a group of 15 experts. And by Delphi method, 26 competitive advantage components were finalized. In the second stage, in order to determine the mutual effects of the components, these components were included in 2 questionnaires and a group of 7 experts completed them. One of these questionnaires was developed for use in MICMAC analysis and the other for use in Scenario Wizard software. The existence of the scenario in the output of the scenario wizard software and the reliability of 95% of the MICMAC questionnaire guarantees the validity and internal consistency of these 2 questionnaires and the relevant data.The results of the scenario wizard software provided 8 acceptable (strong) scenarios, among which 3 optimistic, pessimistic and most likely scenarios were analyzed. By categorizing the advantageous components into 4 political/strategic, economic/financial, social/cultural and technological categories, the results of the three scenarios were also presented in this category. In the last stage, a 6-person group was used to formulate the necessary measures and policies, and this group finally suggested 12 measures for the optimistic scenario, 9 measures for the probable scenario, and 4 measures for the pessimistic scenario. In general, it can be said that in knowledge-based companies, the distribution of knowledge management power towards the four categories of more production, market development, project result orientation and more quality can provide a favorable scenario to achieve the maximum use of facilities and opportunities.

Scenario planning is one of the most widely used methods and one of the specific methods of futures studies. The use of this method for future study projects in Iran has become very widespread in recent years and researchers have used this method in various subjects in their research. This study examines all Iranian scientific research articles using the scenario planning method and with the criteria of having a specific case study, relevance to the future and correct use of the method, has selected one hundred articles published in the last five years for detailed and final review. Then, using the meta-analysis method, the selected articles are examined and they are included with 12 indicators; heuristic or normative, subject, time horizon, source, data type, presence or absence of fluidity in using the method, combination or non-combination of the method (scenario planning) with other methods, monolayers or multilayered, interaction-oriented or expert-centered, creative-oriented or data-driven, Intradisciplinary or Interdisciplinary and the use or non-use of software, and finally provides recommendations on the use of scenario planning in future research projects in Iran.

Nowadays, a wave of changes is directed towards organization and gaining the necessary skills to deal with this accelerating element is inevitable. At this point in time, preparing managers to deal with current change is the focus of organizational development discussions. Accordingly, in this study, the proactive model of development bank managers is presented.

The present study is fundamental from the point of view of purpose and is is descriptive-exploratory in terms of research strategy, which has been done with a qualitative approach. Field method was used to collect data and in particular semi-structured interview tools have been used to collect data. Participants were selected by purposeful judgment and the intrviews continued until the theoretical saturation stage was reached. Also, research data were analyzed using the grounded theory approach in three stages: open, axial and selective.

Based on the analysis of research data, 119 open codes were identified, which were combined into 42 subcategories and 15 main categories, which were finally located in 6 main categories consisting of causal conditions, central phenomenon, background condition, intervening conditions, strategies and consequences.

Deepening, reflecting on and respecting the concepts of self-innovation, futurism and changeism while focusing on psychological development and the development of employee job involvement can strengthen and promote proactive behaviors in development banks.

Considering the developments that have occurred in the concept of defense and security in recent decades, there is a need to review the country's defense patterns, especially in the field of public and specialized conscription service. The purpose of this study was to study the future of specialized conscription service based on scenario approach using the capacities of science, technology and innovation ecosystem. The type of research is based on a qualitative approach and the scenario method has been used. The target of study is students and graduates in specialized service process and the analysis is based on descriptive statistical methods and validity and reliability are considered in the framework of qualitative studies. In future scenario planning with emphasis on the three-year horizon, two uncertainties in "bureaucratic transformation of services" and "Services diversity" were identified, which led to the development of four scenarios: gradual reform of research services, systemic transformation of research services, Limited development of scientific services and systemic transformation of various scientific services. Beyond the short-term scenarios, a variety of research-oriented, technology-oriented, entrepreneurship and social activism services have been proposed and the findings show that moving towards a knowledge-based ecosystem will lead to a fundamental transformation in this field.

Exchange rates always have a high priority and attractiveness in society, especially among companies. Different methods are used to predict the exchange rate, among which structural methods as methods of fundamental analysis, a little precision in advance. They have an accurate forecast of the exchange rate, but they are very useful as a long-term perspective and illuminate the movement of the exchange rate. Technical compensation can be used to compensate for the shortcomings of these methods. Using futures research techniques, in addition to covering the study gap of futures research techniques in forecasting exchange rates, errors due to quantitative methods have been minimized so that companies are prepared for the occurrence of various situations. In the final part of the article, the effect of currency fluctuations on the performance indicators of the tobacco company during the last three years is examined. The results of the study indicate that currency fluctuations have the first and greatest impact on the implementation of development projects and also sudden economic shocks are not immediately reflected in the performance of companies and due to the presence of shock absorbers such as inventory in Warehousing, borrowing purchases and long-term debt creation, over time, gradually affect and weaken the company's performance.