climate change

The progress of the past decades in science and technology and the observations related to the increase in the average temperature of the earth have strengthened the theory of greenhouse gases and the emphasis of governments in pursuing the goals of stabilizing the temperature of the earth up to 2 degrees Celsius and trying to maintain it up to 1.5 degrees Celsius. With the approach of reducing greenhouse gas emissions. In this research, by briefly introducing the theory of climate change, the parameters of climate change during the past decades have been examined, and the history of international actions in pursuit of the goals of stabilizing the temperature of the earth has been examined. In the following, the position and importance of using scenarios as one of the effective tools in climate change research has been discussed and the available scenarios in climate change research are divided into four categories: "Emission Scenarios", "Climate Scenarios", "Environmental Scenarios" and "vulnerability scenarios" have been investigated. Also, the scenario development process in climate change research, and specifically the scenarios of the Inter-State Climate Change Commission from the first generation to the fourth generation, were evaluated and compared. Specifically, the difference between the fourth generation of these scenarios, which has been a new paradigm in scenario planning, in changing from a serial process to a parallel process, was examined and the importance and necessity of preparing this scenario in the field of climate change was evaluated. In the end, the scenarios of "Representative Concentration Pathways" from the fourth generation of climate change scenarios have been explained in more detail, and suggestions have been made for using this scenario in climate change studies and preparing national plans and policies

In recent years, the regulations regarding climate change have been reflected at the international level with a deterrent approach. This approach is presented in the international environmental law in the form of a principle called the principle of prevention, which means the prevention of environmental damages and injuries before they occur. Considering the importance of the issue of climate change, this research tries to analyze the obligations of governments in preventing these changes through the review of international documents governing the legal regime of climate change. Therefore, an attempt has been made to summarize the latest achievements of international law, especially the approach of the International Court of Justice and the International Law Commission, based on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, the Kyoto Protocol, and the Paris Agreement. the present research written based on library studies and descriptive-analytical method and based on review findings. Undoubtedly, climate change is considered a challenge and a global and transboundary environmental issue. In the legal regime related to it, a preventive approach can be understood in the body of obligations to reduce and deal with climate change and its effects. The legal regime of climate change has stipulated the obligation of states based on the principle of prevention. This issue indicates the attention and understanding of the international community on the importance of taking preventive measures. The need to guarantee implementation in fulfilling climate change obligation also guarantees the effectiveness of preventative approach.

Climate change is the biggest ecological and social challenge of the current century, which is worth sociological investigation. The purpose of this article is to present general perspectives and highlights regarding sociological approaches concerning adaptation to climate change. The study investigated social approaches based on adaptation with perspectives of sociological research on the drivers of climate change and its consequences. The results were classified in the form of sociological approaches in three scales: macro, medium, and micro. The results showed that structural, institutional, and social adaptation measures are three important options for reducing vulnerability and increasing adaptation capacity. In addition, measures associated with adaptation to climate change to reduce present and future vulnerabilities are under three elements; Exposure, Sensitivity, and Adaptive Capacity. Government solutions to correct climate injustices are still unclear from the perspective of social justice, and there are still many questions that require further study.

Climate change and global warming, caused by the increase in the concentrationof greenhouse gases, have garnered significant attention across various national and internationalsectors. The emission of greenhouse gases has long been recognized as one of the most pressingenvironmental issues, sparking widespread concern. Since the Industrial Revolution, the demandfor energy and the consumption of fossil fuels have escalated, leading to increased greenhouse gasemissions. While the input and output of atmospheric carbon dioxide have traditionally remainedin balance with nature, human activities and carbon dioxide emissions have disrupted thisequilibrium in recent decades, giving rise to climate change and global warming.

There are various methods for measuring atmospheric carbon dioxide.Remote sensing technology, in particular, has emerged as a solution, overcoming the limitationsof ground-based measurement methods by offering continuous monitoring and global coverageof greenhouse gases. Despite the absence of ground stations for monitoring greenhouse gases inthe Middle East region, spanning 7,207,570 square kilometers, this study investigates the monthly,seasonal, and annual atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide using data from satellites suchas SCIAMACHY, GOSAT, and OCO. The study period spans from 2003 to 2020.

The findings indicate a significant increase in atmospheric carbondioxide concentration over the 18 years examined by all three satellites. In addition toexamining annual changes, this study also investigated seasonal and monthly variations inatmospheric CO2 concentration. The lowest concentrations of this greenhouse gas occurredduring the summer months, particularly in August and September, while the highestconcentrations were observed during the spring months, specifically in April and May.Furthermore, the analysis of differences in atmospheric CO2 between seasons revealed the mostsignificant changes from spring to summer, with an average decrease of 6 ppm. Conversely,the highest increases in atmospheric CO2 between seasons were observed from summer toautumn, with a recorded average increase of approximately 4 ppm.

This research indicates a notable increase in atmospheric CO2 concentration in theMiddle East region from 2003 to 2020, accompanied by seasonal and monthly fluctuationsconsistent with global trends of this greenhouse gas. This long-term rise in greenhouse gaslevels can lead to various detrimental effects in the region, including temperature escalation,alterations in rainfall patterns, heightened drought severity, and damage to natural ecosystems.Consequently, the socio-economic stability of the region could be jeopardized, impactingagriculture, water resources, human health, and biodiversity. To effectively manage andmitigate greenhouse gas emissions, immediate action is imperative at both national andinternational levels. Such measures may involve promoting renewable energy sources,enhancing energy efficiency, curbing industrial pollution, advancing emission reductiontechnologies, and fostering regional and international collaboration in greenhouse gas reductionefforts. Moreover, public awareness campaigns and policy interventions are essential tomobilize stakeholders and facilitate the transition to a low-carbon economy in the Middle East,ensuring sustainable development and climate resilience for future generations.

Dust is a common phenomenon in arid and semi-arid regions. One of the factorsthat play a role in the occurrence of this phenomenon is the change in weather conditions, whichleads to drought, and the drying of lakes and rivers has caused crises such as sandstorms. Thisphenomenon leads to negative effects on agriculture, water and soil pollution, and respiratorydiseases, as well as environmental and social challenges such as reduced visibility and roadaccidents. The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between the DSI dustindex and SPI standardized precipitation drought index in Semnan Province.

The studied area of Semnan Province is located in the southern regionof the Alborz Mountain range. To investigate the effect of drought on the amount of dust, thedaily data of dust, monthly rainfall, temperature, relative humidity and evapotranspiration offive synoptic stations of Semnan Province within a period of 15 years (2003-2017) were usedon an annual scale. During a 15-year period, the drought storm index (DSI) was determined forthe synoptic stations using the dust storm index, and then the cumulative DSI index wascalculated. Afterwards, statistical and experimental evaluations was done on annualfluctuations to identify potential trends. Also, experiment and linear regression analysis wereused to evaluate the correlation of standard precipitation index and dust storms, and Arc GISsoftware was used for zoning.

The results showed that the average annual temperature in the regionhas increased from 2003 to 2017. This rapid warming has caused drought and as a result,temperature, evaporation and transpiration have also increased and led to a decrease in rainfall.A month-by-month survey of wind speed in different stations showed that there is a possibilityof dust in the province in the months of June and July when the maximum wind speed prevails.On the contrary, the months of December and January experienced the least occurrence of dust.The annual changes of DSI (2003 to 2017) showed an irregular shape and do not have a trend.Thus, in 2011, the intensity of dust was high and decreased in the following year, and the samewas observed in 2016. According to the SPI index, Semnan Province was in the normal droughtcategory with a score of 0.59. The in-depth analysis of the correlation chart between thestandardized rainfall indices and DSI showed that the DSI has increased along with the severityof drought during the study period and there is a good correlation between the DSI index andthe meteorological drought in the region, so that when there was a drought period, the value ofDSI decreased and when it was a drought period, the value of the dust index increased.However, there is no significant relationship between these two indicators (p =0.07 andR2=0.22) during the 15-year research period.

Our findings indicated an increase in dust from the west to the east of the provincedue to the increase in average dust storm days. Correlation results between SPI and DSI indexshowed that although DSI index increased during the analyzed period along with the severityof drought, the correlation between the two was not significant. However, the DSI index trendpattern was consistent with the drought pattern trend. Finally, the correlation between droughtand DSI has always fluctuated according to droughts.

Iran stands out as one of the world's biodiversity hotspots. Simultaneously, river fish species within the country face imminent threats from various human activities. Climate change, among other challenges, poses a significant risk to the biodiversity of Iran. Consequently, there is a critical need to anticipate potential habitat changes for freshwater fish species in response to climate change. This study focuses on evaluating the impact of climate change on the habitats of the Song fish, a species with economic value and conservation significance. The Song fish is currently classified as Vulnerable (VU) by the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), making the examination of climate change effects crucial for the future population of this species.

This study employs the MaxEnt model to predict the spatial distribution of the Song fish at two different time scales (2050 and 2080 AD) under both optimistic (RCP2.6) and pessimistic (RCP8.5) climate scenarios. The R software environment was used for the analysis. Environmental variables, including slope, annual temperature range, flow accumulation, annual precipitation, annual mean temperature, and upstream drainage area, were considered. The data related to the observations of this species have been collected from sampling and various library sources. Modeling performance in predicting species distribution has also been evaluated by the AUC (Area Under the Curve) criterion.

The model demonstrated excellent performance in predicting species distribution, as indicated by the high AUC (Area Under the Curve) criterion value of 0.989. Among the environmental variables, annual average temperature and slope emerge were the most influential factors in determining the distribution of the Song fish. Furthermore, the study revealed a projected decrease in the distribution range of this species under both optimistic and pessimistic scenarios for 2050 and 2080.

To safeguard the Song fish, it is imperative for managers to identify and implement appropriate measures. These measures should aim to mitigate the effects of climate change and alleviate threats associated with these changes.

One of the consequences of the climate change in Khuzestan Province is thedrying up of a large part of the wetlands of this province, including Miangaran and Hoor al-Azim, which has caused dust storms in recent years. In this regard, this research aims to predictclimate changes in the area of Miangaran and Hoor al-Azim wetlands by using the SDSMstatistical microscale model based on HadCM3 B2 and A2 climate scenarios. Considering thespecific conditions of the region and the fact that few studies have been done regardingtemperature change in these areas, knowing the state of temperature change can help bettermanagement of resources, especially water resources management.

These parameters include the average sea level pressure, thegeopotential height of the surface of 850 hectopascals and the average temperature at a heightof two meters. For this purpose, by using the daily data of average temperature, minimum andmaximum temperature in the synoptic stations of Izeh and Bostan as the closest stations to Hooral-Azim and Miangaran wetlands in the periods of 2010-2039, 2040-2069 and 2070-2099,predictions were made and then a comparison was made with the base period (1961-1990). Theselected predictors in climate parameters were chosen using NCEP observational large-scaleparameters and SDSM software. These parameters included average sea level pressure, surfacegeopotential height of 850 hectopascals, and average temperature of two meters above thesurface. Also, with scenarios A2 and B2 until the year 2099, the prediction of the return periodof extreme climatic events in the HadCM3 model was done.

The results of the simulation of the HadCM3 model along withobservational data from the Izeh station, modeled annual average temperature data was 18.47°Cand for the Bostan station, modeled annual data average temperature was 19.10°C. Both stationshad a higher average temperature in the base period, and the maximum temperature in theMiangaran wetland was much higher than Hoor al-Azim wetland in the base period. The resultsshowed that in both stations in scenario A2, the average temperature had significant cycles withreturn periods of 1.2 years and the lowest significant cycles for the two stations were in returnperiods of 2.3 and 1.3 years, respectively. In scenario B2, the average temperature in twostations has significant cycles with return periods of 7.5 years and the lowest significant cyclewith a return period of 1.2 years. The results of examining the cycles in the studied areasindicate that in the A2 scenario, certain climatic conditions in the area have short-term returnperiods. One year was obtained in both scenarios, which indicates a wider range of the returnperiod and a higher probability of extreme temperature events in the B2 scenario. In thecomparison of the two stations, it can be seen that in scenario A2, the average temperature ofthe Miangaran wetland is 1.02 °C and the Hoor al-Azim wetland is 1.08 °C.

The results of the data analysis in the future observation and simulation periodswith scenarios B2 and A2 showed an increase in the mean, minimum, and maximum averagetemperature in the future simulation periods compared to the base period in Izeh and Bostanstations. In Bostan station, the average minimum and maximum annual temperature alsoincreased in the third period compared to the base period. In both scenarios, due to the increasein temperature, the drying process of both wetlands will continue.

Climate change is known as one of the main reasons biodiversity loss and natural ecosystems destruction. Carnivores are strongly affected by habitat changes, due to their large home range and low population density, and they are often forced to change their distribution to unsuitable habitats. One of the important carnivores is Asiatic cheetah, which there are probably only less than 40 left in Iran. The purpose of this research is to predict and evaluate climate change on the Asiatic cheetah habitat in Touran protecting complex using presence points, environmental factors (such as elevation, slope, vegetation type, distribution of prey (Indian Gazelle, Persian Gazelle, Wild Goat, Wild Sheep), water sources (springs), roads, etc ), climatic variables and species distribution models such as CTA, RF, MARS and SRE in R software. For forecasting, GISS-E2-1-H climate model and 4 scenarios SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5 were used and the habitat suitability map of Asiatic cheetah under current and future climate conditions was prepared. The results showed that the area of suitable habitats is currently about 300000 hectares, which in 2050 under the optimistic scenario will be 240000 hectares and under the pessimistic scenario will be 165000 hectares. In 2050, the suitable habitat of Asiatic cheetah in Touran protecting complex will be separated from the current suitable areas and will be moved to the borders and outside the study area. There are some strategies for managing the likely climate change impacts on Asiatic cheetah’s habitat in order to conserve the species and its habitat more effectively, including, increasing conserving proceedings to recover grasslands and prey population in suitable habitats, designing new Protected Areas and extending the border of current Protected Areas and creating corridors between the current and potential habitats of cheetah.