جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه "ریسک تولید" در نشریات گروه "اقتصاد کشاورزی"

Wheat is one of the most important crops in Sistan region, which in addition to high cultivation area plays a significant role in the economy of this region. Examining the efficiency of this product can play an important role in increasing its production. Therefore, the present study investigates various types of efficiency with risk of production. To achieve these goals, the methods Random Frontier Analysis (SFA) were used. Data and data were collected by completing a questionnaire in 3 Zabol, Zahak and Hirmand cities of 250 wheat cultivators in 2020-2021. The results showed that in Stochastic Frontier analysis with three types of efficiency, Zahak city with 87% and 47% of the highest technical and economic efficiency and Hirmand city with 58% had the most efficient allocation. Also, the results of risk analysis showed that the irrigation inputs in all three cities had negative effects on production risk. The results of economic and allocative efficiency show that farmers' familiarity with the principles and techniques of scientific production and how to properly manage resources and factors of production is not acceptable. Therefore, it is recommended to hold appropriate training and extension courses to familiarize farmers with how to make optimal use of production factors and ultimately improve the technical, allocative and economic efficiency of wheat farmers. Therefore, considering that water input is a reducing - risk input, the use of new irrigation technologies and farming methods is recommended according to the climatic conditions of the region. Government support for producers, monitoring prices and banking facilities, meeting production needs and providing opportunities to improve the wheat market can be key strategies for the success of producers and their appropriate income.

The aim of the present study is to determine an economic optimal of wheat production and import, by considering the existing risk conditions in Iran. For this purpose, the Goal Programming model was used in order to study several goals simultaneously. The goals considered in this research include the goals of profit, production risk and price risk. The data required for this study was collected from the Statistics Center of Iran, Ministry of Jihad Agriculture, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) in 2020 and GAMS software was used to estimate the results. The results of the study showed by considering all the objectives, for Irrigated wheat, the provinces of Khuzestan, Fars, East and West Azerbaijan, Ardabil, Khorsan Razavi and North, Kurdistan, Kermanshah, Golestan, Lorestan, Hamedan, Ilam, Bushehr, Isfahan, Markazi and Sistan and Baluchestan and for dryland wheat, the provinces of East and West Azerbaijan, Kurdistan, Khuzestan, Ardabil, Zanjan, Khorasan Razavi, Golestan were considered as producers. Based on the results, Khorasan Razavi and Kurdistan provinces with cultivated area equivalent to 886371.5 and 509971.3 had the highest cultivated area for irrigated wheat and rainfed wheat, respectively. Also, according to the results, Australia, Kazakhstan, Russia, Switzerland, the United Arab Emirates, the Netherlands, Austria and Germany entered in the final model as importers of wheat. According to the results of the study, in order to achieve self-sufficiency, it is recommended that policy makers provide incentives for reallocation of wheat in these provinces. According to the results of the study, in order to achieve the goal of self-sufficiency and complete elimination of imports based on the desired perspective of the country, it may be recommended that producers and policy makers move towards the provinces included in the model. Also, considering the impact of risk in decision making, the development of risk management tools is suggested.

The agricultural sector and its related activities have certain characteristics, which expose it to numerous unforeseen risks and damages, resulting in multiple losses and problems. Therefore, identifying and evaluating these risks and damages can help farmers make the right decisions. The purpose of the present study is to identify and evaluate melon crop production risks, and to prepare risk profiles for this crop.

Two criteria of frequency of occurrence and extent of risk, and finally risk matrix were used to assess the damage of each production risks. The sample size was determined based on simple random sampling procedure and the data were collected through face-to-face interviews with 50 melon farmers in Mashhad in 2019.

Study findings suggest that the largest risk area in terms of risk frequency and risk effect is assigned to the fifth area including drought risk, pests, various illnesses, birds and melon fly, following by the first area with 4 risks and the second and third areas with 1 risk.

We highly recommend the use of risk profiles to design patterns and insurance coverage which fits various risks. As a result, losses of insurance fund will mitigate and major and important risks in melon production will be covered, and thus, insurance demand will increase.

Weather factors such as temperature has an enormous influence on agriculture. Therefore, efficient weather risk management has become an urgent requirement for this sector. In recent years, a new instrument named weather derivatives has been introduced to cope with production risk. So, this paper aims at designing and pricing the temperature-based weather derivatives (WD) in order to reduce risk exposure for Iranian agriculture industry. For this purpose, a put option with cumulated growing degree days (GDD) as its underlying index has been selected   We first examine the relationship behavior of temperature and yield for wheat and Rice in Shiraz. Then, for designing and pricing WD in agriculture, GDD index has been selected as one of the most widely used temperature indicators in agricultural sector. We design this contract for each stage of wheat and rice life cycles instead of designing one contract for crop’s growing seasons. So, the life cycles of two crops (Wheat and Rice) divided into 7 stages titled: Emergence, Tillering, and stem elongation, Gravidity, Flowering, Milky ripe and Maturity. Since contract design happens during these stages, we have 6 contracts for each product. Each contract starts with the beginning of one stage and continues until the other stagestarts.
The GDD index is calculated based on the temperature data and the life cycles of the wheat and rice in Shiraz. So, the long-term mean of GDD is calculated as the Strike level of put option contract. The simulation method based on daily temperature data is used for pricing the contracts. Finally, the expected payoff and the price of the options are determined using the Monte Carlo simulation method.   The results revealed a significantly positive relationship between wheat yield and GDD as well as a positive impact of GDD on Rice yield. This implies that increasing growing degree days would increase wheat and rice yield. The R2 coefficient also indicates that 76 percent of the variations in yield of wheat and rice are explained by the growing degree day's index. Therefore, the design of temperature based weather derivatives contracts will have high efficiency in order to cover the risk of farmers.
As expected, rice has a relatively higher strike price than wheat as rice-groups accumulate GDD in warm seasons. We assume that the annual risk-free interest rate r is 15 percent and the expected payoff also the price of the contract put option is calculated based on 10000 Monte Carlo simulations. Based on the results, the most wheat payoff in Shiraz was related to the second contract (from the November 21st to the March 6st). Therefore, the use of the temperature option in this period will compensate farmers for their loss. In terms of rice, the most payoffs in Shiraz have occurred in the twelfth contract (Aug 19st to Oct 17st).   Financial weather derivatives (WD) are designed to serve as hedging instruments against weather risk and to balance the income of producers such as farmers. WD was first traded in 1997 and since then their popularity has increased. However, weather derivatives as well as designing and pricing of contracts based on weather has not been introduced in Iran. Therefore, in present research, while introducing the mechanism of the weather derivatives and options based on weather indicators the designing and pricing of put option contracts based on temperature have been discussed in Shiraz. For this purpose, GDD index has been selected as one of the most widely used temperature indicators in agricultural sector. The GDD index is calculated based on the temperature data and the life cycles of the wheat and rice in Shiraz. So, the long-term mean of GDD is calculated as the Strike level of put option contract. The simulation method based on daily temperature data is used for pricing the contracts. Finally, the expected payoff and the price of the options are determined using the Monte Carlo simulation method. As discussed before, the temperature options for each city and product are designed based on the different stages of life cycles of the crops so we plan and set the price of put options for six different time periods. Based on the results, the most wheat payoff in Shiraz was related to the second contract during the November 21st to the March 6st. Therefore, the utilization of the temperature option in this period will compensate farmers for their loss. In the case of rice, the most payoffs in Shiraz have occurred in the twelfth contract (Aug 19st to Oct 17st). Therefore, it is recommended to use the results of the present study to launch a weather derivative’s market. In addition, it is vital to change and revise these contracts by conducting various studies about the effects of changing contracts specifications on farmers and other Contributors in the market.

The purpose of this study was to assess the risks associated with wheat production in the bread supply chain of Khuzestan Province, which was carried out in two phases. For this purpose, the exploratory mixed method was used which in the first phase the grounded theory was used for risk identification and in the second phase the cross-sectional survey was used to risk assessment. In the first phase, the population was elites and progressive farmers in wheat production which among them 15 people was selected through a typical case purposeful sampling and revelatory case purposeful sampling method as the sample of the study. Semi-structured interviews and observation were used as the research instrument. In the second phase, the population was wheat producers of the Khuzestan province which among them 150 people was selected through a typical case purposeful sampling as the sample. Data collected using a checklist. The data were assessed based on Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA). Reliability of the recognized risks and validity of checklist were confirmed by a panel of experts. Based on the results of Grounded theory 12 risks categories identified. The results of risk assessment were showed environmental risk, food safety risk, the supply of inputs risk, agricultural activities risk, infrastructure risk, technology risk, access to information and extension education risk, financial risk, delay risk, market risk, research and development risk, human risk. the environmental risk was the very strong risk, food safety risk was a strong risk and market risk, research and development risk, human risk were weakness risks.

Climate change is one of important issue in agricultural sector in Iran. Because this issue with affects crops’ yield that leads to increasing productivity risk. On the other hand inputs has effect on crops’ yield. So, the aim of this paper is investigating the effect of controlled inputs in production and climate factors on average and performance fluctuations in selected agricultural production in Khorasan Razavi province (wheat, barley) as strategic agricultural products over the period of 2011-2015 by using the Just & Pope model. The results show that in the function of the mean yield, a millimeter increase in the logarithm of precipitation leads to increase in the average yield of rain-fed wheat, rain-fed barely and blue barley at levels of 0.11, 0.04 and 0.24 kg per hectare, and a reduction of 0.57 kg per hectare for blue wheat. An increase of 1 degree Celsius in the logarithm the mean of maximum temperature leads to decrease by 0.02, and 0.1 kg per hectare in the mean yield of blue wheat and blue barely respectively, but the average yield of rain-fed wheat and barley increase by 1.28 and 0.17 kg per hectare respectively. Also, logarithm of the cropping area, mechanization coefficient, nitrogen fertilizer and pesticide had a positive effect on the mean yield. According to the results of the yield risk function, transmittance in precipitation leads to increase the yield risk in blue wheat, rain-fed wheat and rain-fed barely to 0.27, 3.65 and 2.83 kg per hectare and increase in logarithm the mean of maximum temperature leads to decrease 0.69, 5.30 and 6.13 kg per hectare in the yield risk of those products. Based on the results obtained in the function of mean and performance risk, risk management tools include Weather-Based insurance for agricultural products and the use of drought-resistant seed varieties, in order to prevent the risk of production and reduce the vulnerability of farmers to inputs and climatic factors is suggested.

The purpose of this study is surveying the production risk and evaluation the factors affecting on risk tendency of saffron farmers in Torbat-e Heydarieh with emphasis on poverty index in 2010. For this purpose، 91 questionnaires were completed from saffron farmers using random sampling method. Thus، Just and Pope (1979) model was used for determination of effective factors on production risk. Risk averse index of farmers was calculated using risk parameter provided by Moscardi and DeJanvry (1977). Also، poverty indexes were calculated using FGT index. According to the results، factors such as land under cultivation، fertilizer consumption، and water use have negative effect on production risk. The most saffron farmers were risk averse too. Results of calculating headcount index show that about 55 % of sample is poor and the most of them are risk averse. Index of poverty gap revealed that with decreasing the risk averse degree of saffron farmers، poverty gap will decrease. Poverty intensity index show that with increasing the degree of risk take of poor saffron farmers، they will suffer less from the poverty. According to the results، age and education level have a positive and negative effect on risk averse of saffron farmers respectively. Also، land under cultivation of saffron to total of land under cultivation ratio and saffron income to total of agriculture income ratio show a negative effect on risk averse of farmers. Placing the farmers in poverty core lead to increase the level of risk averse.

The main objective of this study is analysis of effective factors on production risk management among orange farmers. Statistical population of research included all orange farmers of Jiroft (Kerman province). Using the Cochran formula were selected 25 cases، but to increase the validity of the research findings، by class random sampling the number of 125 questionnaire distribution among the members of the community finally number of 110 questionnaires was completed. The main study instrument was a questionnaire that its validity and reliability was confirmed by a panel of experts and Cronbach''s alpha coefficient (α> 0. 7). The design of the study was a descriptive survey that done by single cross-sectional study (2010). Data analysis was done by SPSSwin18. Finding from factor analysis illustrates that climatic، environmental، pests and disease factors have the greatest impact on risk on surveyed sample. In addition، financial and technology strategies and marketing management are of the most important practices to risk management among the farmers. Based on results of Pearson correlation analysis showed a significant and positive relationship between risk management and other study variables (education، cultivation Background، agricultural income and the amount of bank debt). This means that the farmers they have a high level of income، work experience or education، they well be able to management the risk better than others farmer. While there is a significant and negative relationship between bank debt and risk management. Further study results showed that the main factors influencing risk management point of view of the orange farmers was using varieties resistant to drought and crop insurance. Thus suggested that the government provide insurance facilities for agricultural products to farmers in the area.

Usage of inputs is one of the most important factors affecting agricultural production variations. Thus، in the evaluation of production function، it is reasonable to consider the effects of inputs usage on the production fluctuation. East Azerbaijan province is one of the five major producing in Iran and Tabriz plain and the most important region of the province for onion production. The main objective of this study is determination of effective inputs on production and production risk of onion in Tabriz plain. To this end، the general model of Just and Pope has been used. Results show the generalized quadratic and Leontief form is best functional form to onion production and production risk، respectively. The results of these functions estimations indicates that area، seeds، water and labor inputs have significant and positive effect on onion production and chemical fertilizer has significant and negative effect on it. Results of estimation of risk function represent that increasing area، labor، water and seed consumption increase production risk and increasing chemical fertilizer and pesticide decrease it. Total output variance elasticity is 1. 48 that shows that production risk increases by every increase of one percent of consumption of inputs.

In this study the effect of irrigation systems and variety diversification on risk and productivity of wheat farms have been investigated. Data were collected from field survey in Shahrekord district in the south west of Iran in 2008-2009. Then stochastic production function was estimated to evaluate the effect of variables on the mean and variance of wheat yields. To perform this work, several form of production functions with several estimation procedures were used, and finally quadratic production function was selected. After that estimated coefficients were used to simulate the effects of variable. Econometric evidence shows that variety diversification increases farm productivity. Variety richness also reduces yield variability but only for high levels of genetic diversity. Results also show the same relation with respect to irrigation systems and improved seeds; however, deficit irrigation tends to reduce the mean wheat production and increase risk. Simulations with estimated parameters illustrate planting more diverse wheat varieties contribute to reduce production risk and to improving farmer’s productivity and welfare.

In this paper moment-based approach (as developed by Antle, 1983) has been used in order to determine the effect of four inputs including food, labor, fuel and medicine on output risk. This is based on 166 pooled-data collected from a sample of poultry produces in Sabzevar region. The results showed that all inputs had significant and positiveeffect on output. Besides, the results demonstrated that only food and labor had significant and positive effect on output risk, while medicine and fuel affected output risk negatively. Based on the results, this study suggested more investment in order to persuade farmers to use new technology. Moreover extension service and maintaining fuel subsidy would be helpful to increase output and reduction of output risk.