جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « نرخ ارز » در نشریات گروه « اقتصاد کشاورزی »

Fluctuations in oil revenues and the exhaustibility of oil resources have made the country's policymakers and planners believe that development of non-oil exports and diversify the country’s export income is essential in order to reduce the vulnerability of economic development goals. Medicinal plants are one of the most valuable resources in Iran's natural resources. So that if they are used properly and pay attention to their export position in the world, can be useful in the goal of developing non-oil exports. Due to the importance of medicinal plants in Iran non-petroleum export, the the present study was conducted to determine the effective factors on the supply of selected Iranian herbs.

In this study used Auto Regressive Distribution Lag (ARDL) model. Band test was used to check the existence of long run relationship between variables. Cumulative sum of residuals (CUSUM) and cumulative sum of squared residuals (CUSUMSQ) tests were used to check the stability of the model. The study period of this research is 1978-2016. The data of this study has been collected from different sources, including the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Central Bank.

The results of the variables' stationarity showed that all the variables are stationary of degree I(0) or I(1). Therefore, the ARDL model can be used to examine the short-run and long-run relationship. The results of the band test showed that there is a long-run relationship between the variables. The results of long term ARDL model showed that the variables of exchange rate fluctuations, oil exports, and herbs export of rival countries had a negative and significant effect, and the indices of domestic production of Iranian herbs, real exchange rate, the prices of Iranian herbs and the trade liberalization variable had a positive and significant effect  on the amount of herbs export

With the increase of oil revenues during the period under review, the export of medicinal plants will decrease. The reason for this could be the government's less attention to the agricultural sector in the conditions of booming oil revenues. Paying attention to the export potentials of the agricultural sector and medicinal plants can be considered as one of the gradual solutions for the exit of the country's economy from the export of crude oil products. Considering the negative effect of exchange rate fluctuations on the supply of medicinal plant exports in the long term, it is necessary to adopt appropriate policies to reduce exchange rate fluctuations and also provide financial support to exporters against exchange rate fluctuations.

Foreign trade is one of the important factors in economic development and provision of foreign exchange revenue. In recent years, the existence of price fluctuations in the oil market has faced many changes in the country's foreign exchange income and has affected the country's economy. And this shows the necessity of diversifying export products and trade and emphasizing the importance of trade in non-oil products. Therefore, it is inevitable to focus on the trade of the agricultural sector with regard to goals such as self-sufficiency and food security and the possibility of high foreign exchange earnings in the said sector. Dates are one of the most important non-oil items in Iran, which have a long history. In terms of date history, Iran has always ranked first in the world.

In this study, the short-term and long-term effect of the real exchange rate, date production and the ratio of the domestic price to the world price on the export volume of this product using the ARDL model and the error correction model (ECM) in Iran during the years 1370-1400 were estimated. Investigating the long-term relationship between model variables, short-term dynamics of the model and the adjustment speed of the short-term to long-term imbalance has been estimated.

The results show that in the short term, the ratio of domestic to foreign prices has a positive and significant relationship on the amount of date exports, and in the long term, the ratio of domestic to foreign prices and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on the volume of date exports. Also, the results indicate the existence of a long-term and significant relationship between the variables of the model.

Since the exchange rate has a positive effect on the export of dates, with the increase in the exchange rate, the income from the export of dates increases, and this increases the motivation of exporters to increase the amount of date exports. Reducing currency deviations will increase the export of dates, so it is recommended that the country's foreign exchange policies be adopted to support exports and reduce imports of agricultural products. In this regard, prevention of exchange rate fluctuations as well as clear information about the future trend of exchange rate changes will play an effective role in increasing exporters' income and the amount of exports and maintaining Iran's position in global markets. The ratio of the domestic price to the world price in the long term has had a significant effect on the amount of date exports at level 10%. If the government's policy is to reduce exports based on various policies, especially the preservation of water reserves, an increase in the domestic price compared to the world price (through export duties) is suggested.

Necessary access to protein products plays a very important role in ensuring the health and food security of the society. Therefore, due to the importance of food security, adequate, sufficient and cheap access to protein products has always been one of the main goals of agricultural development programs in Iran. The payment of various foreign currency and IRI rials subsidies in the field of market regulation, price control and periodical supervision are among the most important policies in supporting the consumption of protein products in Iran. Nevertheless, a review of long-term statistics shows that the per capita consumption of many protein products in Iran has decreased. Naturally, one of the most important reasons for people's lack of stable access to food and agricultural products, including protein products, should be sought in the repeated price fluctuations associated with these products. In such a way that, with the increase in the price of these products, it becomes difficult for the households to provide them with the desired and suitable products, and the level of welfare of the consumers is reduced. Exchange rate volatility is a problem that plays a significant role in the price fluctuations of food products in developing countries, especially countries where a significant part of their food supply is dependent on foreign countries. Therefore, in this study, the spillover analysis of exchange rate fluctuations on the price of protein products in urban and rural areas of Iran was analyzed. The occurrence of fluctuation or variance of conditional heteroskedasticity over time is one of the characteristics of the price in all types of financial markets. Fluctuation spillover also means that there may be a connection between fluctuations in different markets so that existing fluctuations can be transferred from one market to another. In conventional econometric models, it is assumed that the variance is a component of disturbance in the whole sample; but usually, many economic time series go through some periods with large fluctuations and periods with little changes. Therefore, under these conditions, the assumption of constant variance or homoscedasticity variance does not seem very logical. On the other hand, in many cases, predicting the conditional variance of a series of data will be of special importance. Therefore, the use of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) models, especially the multivariate GARCH (MVGARCH) approach, has become common in this regard. Therefore, in this study, the MVGARCH approach and time series data from May 2002 to December 2021 by separate urban and rural areas were used for the desired analysis.  The study results showed that the occurrence of a shock in the currency market in any period would only lead to current fluctuations in the market of milk, cheese and eggs in urban areas and would not affect the current fluctuations in the markets of red and white meat and seafood in these areas; in addition, the fluctuation in the currency market in each period would significantly spill over to the protein products market in the cities in the next period. According to the results, the spillover of the fluctuation of the currency market to the protein products market in urban areas is more effective in the red and white meat market and the aquatic products market rather than the milk, cheese and eggs market. The results also showed that the volatility spillover among the three protein markets in urban areas is not significant. Regarding the rural areas, the results showed that the occurrence of a shock in the currency market, despite having an effect on the market fluctuations of the milk, cheese and eggs market and the seafood market, would not have a significant effect on the price fluctuations of the red and white meat market; in addition, the occurrence of a shock in the currency market, despite having an effect on the fluctuations of milk, cheese and eggs market and seafood market, would not have a significant effect on the price fluctuations of the red and white meat market; also, among the three protein markets, the red and white meat market is not affected by the fluctuations of the currency market. In addition, the results showed that unlike the urban areas, in the rural areas, the spillover fluctuation among the triple markets of protein products would mainly occur in an indirect direction. The analysis of the study results showed that the shock and fluctuation of the exchange rate to a large extent would spill over into the markets of protein products in the urban and rural areas; however, there would be differences between the markets and their susceptibility to volatility and currency shocks, among which the difference in the effectiveness of red and white meat from exchange rate fluctuation could be mentioned, which would not happen in the rural areas, unlike the urban areas, where exchange rate fluctuation overflows. Another difference is that there is no spillover between the protein product markets in the cities, while in rural areas, the fluctuations are indirect and reversed. Therefore, it is inferred that if any factor, including exchange rate fluctuations, causes price fluctuations in one of the protein product markets, this fluctuation does not accumulate in the urban areas between markets. At the same time, in the rural areas, the intensity of fluctuations between markets is reduced to a great extent. In justifying these differences, it can be said that mainly in the cities, the management policies of the protein products market are done by controlling the price and monitoring the market, spending a lot of money and energy, while in the villages, the relative abundance of the supply of products, on the one hand, and the limited income of the rural residents, on another hand, prevent the price fluctuations to some extent. Therefore, as a recommendation, the study emphasized the relative adjustment of policies, shifting from consumer protection policies towards producer protection policies aiming at increasing the supply and regulating the price of protein products.

Nowadays, the membership of countries in trade agreements has opened a new space for the economic movement of different countries by facilitating trade through deregulation, dismantling tariff and support borders, increasing integration of national and regional markets, and access to different markets. But for all the benefits stated for agreements in facilitating trade conditions, the state of trade balance between countries in different economic sectors following membership in the agreements is not clear. Therefore, in this article, the effect of Iran's membership in the agreements, the Global System of Trade Preferences and the Organization of Economic Cooperation on her agricultural trade balance with 45 major trading partners using the Gravity model in the period 2001-2017 has been investigated. According to the results, Iran's membership in trade agreements has significantly diminished Iran's agricultural trade balance. Also, the variables of income and population of trading partners and common land border have positive and significant effect and variables of exchange rate, Iranian income, distance and global financial crisis have negative and significant effect on Iran's agricultural trade balance.

 Despite the positive effects of the liberalization of economic activity around the world, the Iranian government still has a major share in the country's economy. However, almost all economists agree on the low efficiency of government economic activities. Restricting government involvement in these activities is a move that has been proposed and pursued by the World Bank and other global economic organizations, especially in recent decades. One of the policies recently proposed to reduce government interference in the Iranian economy is the elimination of 42,000 Rials in the country. But reducing government interference in agricultural activities can have many positive and negative effects. One of these effects could be rising food prices. In recent years, the frequency of large food price increases has accelerated around the world. Due to the dramatic changes in food prices, there have been numerous studies postulated that the exchange rate and crude oil price instability are the main determinant of the food price crises in different countries. The exchange rate is at the center of the policy debate in both developed and developing economies. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the asymmetric effects of exchange rate changes on food price fluctuations in Iran. For this reason, the NARDL approach has been used.

 Due to the possibilities of asymmetric impact exits between the underlying variables (exchange rate and food price), the asymmetric Non-linear Unrestricted ARDL proposed by Shin et al. (2014) is widely used by the researchers, such as Ibrahim (2015) and Abdlaziz et al. (2016). The main purpose of this test was to test for the presence asymmetric effects in both long- and short-run relationships between economic time-series. Shin et al. (2014) applied the positive and negative partial sum decompositions to test the asymmetric effects. This asymmetric Unrestricted ARDL cointegration approach which allows the joint analysis of non-stationarity and non-linearity issues in the context of an unrestricted error correction model (ECM). In this study, in order to investigate the asymmetric effects of currency shock on food prices, the model introduced in the study of Wong and Shamsdin (2017) was used:

The findings of the study indicate several important relationships between key variables (oil price, per capita GDP, exchange rate, and trade liberalization) and food prices in Iran. Firstly, the study reveals that these variables exhibit long-run cointegration with food prices, suggesting a significant relationship between them. Secondly, the Unrestricted NARDL model demonstrates that exchange rates have a significant long-run asymmetric impact on food price changes in Iran. This implies that changes in the exchange rate can have a varying effect on food prices, depending on whether the exchange rate is appreciating or depreciating. Thirdly, the study finds that while long-run and short-run changes in oil prices do not have a significant impact on food prices in Iran, the long-run growth of per capita GDP and trade liberalization do have a significant impact on food price fluctuations. Specifically, the coefficients of the exchange rate variables indicate that a 1 percent increase in the exchange rate results in a 0.32 percent increase in the consumer food price index and a 1.05 percent increase in the producer food price index in the long run. The asymmetric impact of the exchange rate on Iranian food price fluctuations suggests that policymakers should prioritize stabilizing the national currency to manage the movement of food prices. This implies that economic policymakers, who aim to reduce inflation, protect vulnerable populations, and ensure food security, need to consider currency stability in their decision-making process. In addition to price liberalization, supportive policies should be implemented to prevent economic barriers to accessing food. Overall, these findings highlight the importance of understanding the relationships between key economic variables and food prices in Iran, and the need for policymakers to take these factors into account when making decisions regarding inflation, food security, and supporting vulnerable populations.

In this study, the focus was on investigating the asymmetric impact of oil price, real GDP, and exchange rates on food price fluctuations in Malaysia. The findings revealed that the exchange rate had a significant asymmetric effect on the movement of food prices, indicating its importance in understanding the current food market situation in Iran. This suggests that policymakers should prioritize addressing exchange rate issues rather than solely focusing on crude oil prices when formulating food price policies. The study emphasizes that stabilizing the national currency is of greater importance than controlling oil prices, as demonstrated by the research findings. Rising food prices have a detrimental impact on the economic access of vulnerable groups to sufficient food and pose a significant threat to food security. Therefore, it is recommended to pay attention to the positive relationship between increasing exchange rates and agricultural product prices. In the short term, it is essential to implement supportive policies to prevent a reduction in economic access to food. These policies should aim to address the challenges faced by vulnerable groups in accessing affordable food. By taking these measures, policymakers can mitigate the negative consequences of rising food prices and ensure food security for all.

Trade liberalization of agricultural products and its effect on food prices, because of the importance of food in the household consumption basket, is one of the most important goals of governments for public access to health and food security. The present study investigated the effect of trade liberalization on domestic food prices in Iran. In this context, the single-equation error correction model (SEECM) was applied using the required time series data during 1989-2019. The results show that in the short-term, only increases in global food prices, liquidity, and exchange rates significantly affect domestic food prices. However, domestic food prices show more reaction to exchange rate fluctuations than to world prices. The estimated long-run equilibrium relationship demonstrated that world food prices have a positive and trade liberalization has a negative effect on domestic food prices. In addition, in the long run, the effect of liquidity on the domestic food price of food is more than other factors. The estimated error-correction term indicates that in the long run, if a shock occurs to the domestic food price, the domestic market can adjust it by only 35% annually. Considering the fluctuations of global prices and exchange rates, and their impacts on domestic prices, it is necessary to pay attention to these fluctuations in revising trade policies.

After abandoning the managed floating exchange rate regime to reduce the effects of the US withdrawal from the JCPOA nuclear agreement in 2018 and adopting a multi-exchange rate system, the border protection system for agricultural products distorted in two ways: first, due to allocating different rate currency to various goods; and second, as a result of calculating the customs duties and commercial profits with the appreciated exchange rate. In this study, assume that the import pattern is maintained constant like as in 2020, given no change in marketing margins, the effects of changes in the ‘calculated exchange rate of customs duties and commercial profits’ on the level of prices and also the efficiency of border measures for support of Iranian agricultural products were investigated by using the differentiation in the weighted average value of imported goods after clearance at two different exchange rates and the weighted average of import tariffs during the period 2016-2020. The results showed that the rate of increase in commodity prices resulting from the implementation of this policy was directly related to the average weighted tariff rate. So, it is estimated that the cost of imported agricultural products will increase by an average of 7.6 to 12.6 percent directly. Therefore, due to the increasing level of border protection, a pattern for selective linear reduction of a few tariff lines proposed in the 1400 budget bill is not enough to modify the agricultural products tariff system; and it is necessary to revise the commercial profit of agricultural products tariffs as well.

Changes in the exchange rate through changing prices and affecting the trade of inputs and agricultural products will have positive and negative effects on economic variables such as trade balance and its added value. The effect of the exchange rate (its rate and instability) on Iran's agricultural value-added as a study objective was studied using 1977-2018 statistics. results showed a significant positive effect of free exchange rate lag and significant negative effect of free exchange rate volatility on agricultural value added in the short-run; in long run, free exchange rate and free exchange rate volatility had no significant effect on value-added of Iran,s agriculture. The long-term economic growth of the agricultural sector depends on investment. to support agriculture in the forward conditions and in order to maintain its economic growth, targeted management of agricultural inputs, increased guaranteed purchase prices of products, payment of institutional subsidies, injection of public capital into agriculture, and support for private investment in agriculture are proposed.

Input prices are one of the main components in determining the price of poultry meat and identifying the factors affecting the input prices is one of the major issues faced by governments. Thus, this study aimed at identifying the relationship between the input prices used in poultry sub-sector and exchange rate volatility in Iran. For this purpose, the Nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (NARDL) approach and seasonal data were used for the period of spring 2004 to winter 2018. Regarding the seasonality of the data, the HEGY stationary test was used to investigate the presence of seasonal and non-seasonal unit roots. The results showed that the prices of all inputs except for domestic fish powder were cointegrated with GDP and exchange rate volatility; also among the inputs of poultry sub-sector, the domestic corn price had an asymmetric behavior against exchange rate shocks in the either short-term or long-term, while the prices of foreign corn in the short run and compounded feed of laying hens in the long run had asymmetric behavior. According to the asymmetric behavior of corn input price in the face of exchange rate volatility, and given that this corn input accounts for more than half of the poultry feed, using appropriate exchange rate policies and stabilizing the process of these policies can help further stabilize the poultry market; in addition, it would be incorrect and biased to consider the absolute value of the effects of foreign exchange policies on input prices in both short and long terms due to its asymmetry.

One of the most important variables effective on the PPI of agricultural products is the exchange rate. With the change in the exchange rate, the relative prices of exports and imports have changed, and given that the major part of the imports in agricultural sector is the inputs required for the production of this sector, this will change the cost of agricultural products. The exchange rate directly affects the export and import of agricultural products and agricultural inputs and indirectly affects production, income, costs, profits and investment in the agricultural sector. Thus, the exchange rate affects the price index in this sector due to its effect on the supply and demand of products and inputs in the agricultural sector. Monetary policy is one of the factors that can affect the price of food and agricultural products. One of the main goals of monetary policy is to stabilize the general level of prices in the economy. In a situation where society is exposed to inflationary pressures and the CPI is rising, the application of a contractionary monetary policy can play an important role in inflation control.

In this study is used the nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) method for estimating of PPI agricultural products equation using Eveiws12 software. The data required for this study are related to the period 2009 (Chapter 4) to 2019 (Chapter 4), which is mainly collected from domestic library sources, including the Statistical Center of Iran, the Ministry of Agriculture-Jihad, the Central Bank of Iran and the Ministry of Economic Affairs and Finance. The data on the effective real exchange rate has been extracted from the IMF web site. Based on the theoretical foundations and fulfilled studies, the long-run relationship exists between the PPI of agricultural products and the explanatory variables such as real effective exchange rate, GDP, CPI and money supply. This equation is transformed into an unbound error correction model (UECM) using the functional form ARDL (p, q) and is estimated using the ordinary least squares (OLS) method. In this study, the Bounds test has used for investigating the existence of a long-term relationship (co-integration) between independent and dependent variables. Also the Wald test has used for investigating the symmetric or asymmetric effects of independent variables (exchange rate and money supply) on the dependent variable.

The results of the augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test show that all variables are stationary in first difference. In other words, the variables are integrated from the first degree and in this research, the NARDL approach can be used. The results of Bounds test indicate that in both the linear symmetric model (ARDL) and the nonlinear asymmetric model (NARDL), the calculated F-statistic is greater than the critical values ​​of the upper bound. Thus, the long-run equilibrium relationship between the variables of both models is accepted with 99% confidence. The results of linear model (ARDL) indicate that the real effective exchange rate with a time lag, in the short term has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. The GDP variable only in the long run has a negative and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In addition, the CPI in the short term with a time lag and in the long term has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. Also, in the linear model, money supply (monetary policy) has had a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products only in the long run. The results of the NARDL model show that in the short run, only the positive shock of real effective exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. Accordingly, the GDP variable in the short run has a negative and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In the short run, the CPI with a time lag has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In addition, in the short run, the positive and negative shocks of money supply have not had a significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In the long run, the positive shock of real effective exchange rate has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In addition, the negative shock of the real effective exchange rate in the long run has a negative and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. Also, positive shocks of money supply (monetary policy) in the long run have a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. Negative shocks of money supply (monetary policy) in the long run have a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. In the long run, GDP has had a negative and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products.

The results indicate that the positive shock of the real effective exchange rate, both in the short run and in the long run, has a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products. Therefore, the depreciation of national currency always increases the PPI of agricultural products. Therefore, the most important step forward for the policymakers and planners to control the rising trend of prices is to prevent the depreciation of the national currency. Based on these results, positive and negative shocks of money supply (expansionary and contractionary monetary policies) have a positive and significant effect on the PPI of agricultural products only in the long run. Therefore, application of monetary policy in the agricultural sector is like a double-edged sword, and the use of these instruments by monetary authorities requires consideration of all aspects.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of real exchange rate uncertainty on Iran's agricultural imports for the period of 1977-1389 and predict the level of Iranian agricultural imports by 1404 using GARCH, VAR, VECM and ANN methods. For this purpose, a generalized autoregressive conditional heterogeneity variance model was used to index the real exchange rate uncertainty, using autoregressive patterns and vector error correction for estimating co-integration and short-term and long-term coherent relationships and finally for prediction of artificial neural network method. The results showed that there is an indirect relationship between the real exchange rate fluctuations and consumption pattern of the society on agricultural imports and the direct relation between oil revenue variable and the absorption variable on agricultural imports. Then, comparing the efficiency of self-regression models and Vector Error Correction Model and artificial neural network, a neural network designed to predict the import of Iranian agricultural sector for the period 1396 to 1404 was used under a scenario and exogenous predictions were .....

The object of the present study examined the market integration and the transmission world prices to the domestic markets of the livestock’s major imported inputs in Iran which are including corn, soybean meal and barley in the country. To address this challenge, the Single Equation Error Correction (SEECM) method was applied by monthly data which gathered from the Central Bank, the F.A.O. database and the State Livestock Affairs Logistics (S.L.A.L) Inc. in period of 2000-2017. However, the Engel- Granger co-integration and error correction model (ECM) was also utilized to compare with the SEECK results. The results indicate that all variables are integrated of order one [i.e. I(1)]. The existence of long-term equilibrium was identified by the Johansson method for domestic prices of three inputs, including corn, soybean meal and barley. The results show that the error correction terms are negatively significant and the largest and smallest effect relate to barley price (-0.25) and corn price (-0.16), respectively. The long-term equilibrium estimated by the SEECM model indicates that for all three inputs, the related world price and the exchange rate have a positive and significant effect on the domestic prices of these inputs. The elasticity of world price transmission for corn were equal to 0.45, soybean meal 0.44 and barley 0.28, and the elasticity of exchange rate transmission on the domestic price of corn, soybean meal and barley were 0.57, 0 and 0.13. With consider to the high volumes of corn and soybean meal imports compared to barley, the calculated elasticity of world prices transmission are in line with expectations, and they are expected that corn and soybean meal would affected highly from their world prices and exchange rates in the nation. The results indicate that the degree of price transmission between these markets was not same so that it depends on amount of domestic production, consumption level and imported volume.

The exchange rate in Iran has experienced considerable increase with some fluctuations over last two decades. This has resulted in an increased cost of food production in Iran. Since, further increase in exchange rate is expected in the future, it is important to determine which groups of agricultural products, produced in different agricultural sub-sectors, are more sensitive to these changes and also to specify the major paths through which exchange rate increase is transmitted to different agricultural products. The main objective of this study is to provide explanations for these questions.

To achieve the objectives of the study, a social accounting matrix (SAM) has been constructed based on the latest Iranian Input-Output Table released in 2011 by the Statistical Center of Iran. This SAM is a 110× 110 matrix and consists of different accounts.  Three accounts for factors of production (labor, land and capital), 6 household accounts (rural and urban households divided into three groups of low, middle and high income), one government account, one capital account, one account for rest of the world, and finally, one account for commodities which includes 49 domestic commodities and 49 imported commodities. To trace the effects of changes in exchange rate on prices of different products, the matrix of SAM is transformed to a SAM-based price analytical model. Then, the structural path decomposition approach is used to specify the major paths through which the effects of increase in exchange rate are transferred to major agricultural products in different sub-sectors.

Results of this study revealed that livestock and poultry products are the most responsive products to a shock on the exchange rate. Thus, the effect of the shock on the prices of these products is significant. Forestry and agricultural services are in the second place from this point of view. Crop farming products, fish and other fisheries products, and horticultural products are ranked on the next place. Since producing livestock and poultry products extensively depend on the imported feed materials, the production cost and consequently, the prices of the first group of products experience the highest increase. Subsidizing feed materials, following an exchange rate shock, or direct payment to the low income households’ group might be a way to mitigate the negative effects of the exchange rate shock on food security in Iran. The results of structural path analysis indicate that the effects of increase in exchange rate on the prices of agricultural products are mostly transmitted through increasing import prices in six main economic sectors namely; “materials and chemical products”, “crop farming products”, “food products” “textiles, leather and their products”, “the machinery and equipment” and “hotel and restaurant services”. However, impacts of the above sectors on prices are not the same in all agricultural subsectors. Price of “crop farming products” is mostly affected by prices of imported “crop farming products” as well as “materials and chemical products”. Prices of “horticultural products” and “forestry and agricultural services” are mainly affected by increasing prices of imported “materials and chemical products”. On the other hand, price of “livestock and poultry products” changes considerably with increase in import prices of “crop farming products (raw materials)” and “food products”. Finally, price of “fish and other fishing products” is mostly affected by price of imported “food products”.
Based on the results of structural path analysis, the paths through which exchange rate shock are transferred to the cost of production and consequently prices of agricultural products are two separate channels. Increase in import prices of “materials and chemical products”, “crop farming products” and “food products” is transmitted to the prices of agricultural products as these products are utilized as inputs in production process of agricultural products directly or indirectly. On the other hand, an increase in import prices of “textiles, leather and their products” and “the machinery and equipment” indirectly affects production cost of agricultural products by first stimulating an increase in prices of primary factors, following increased cost of living for owners of these inputs.

To decrease the negative impact of exchange shock on prices of food products, different policies can be adopted, depending on the sectors playing the main role in increasing the cost of production and the path through which the shock is transmitted. Generally, subsidizing feed materials, following an exchange rate shock, through allocation of preferred exchange rate or supplying these materials with a subsidized price is recommended for the products such as poultry products in which most of the feeding materials are imported. On the other hand, direct payment to the low income households’ group might be a way to mitigate the negative effects of the exchange rate shock on food security in cases that most of the increased cost of production comes from increase in the cost of primary inputs.

The banking sector has a financial intermediary role and can directly and indirectly support the growth of the real sector of the economy. In countries such as Iran whose economy is bank-based, economic growth is largely dependent on bank loans and according to macroeconomic changes, banking flexibility has a great importance in economic development. On the other hand, according to the policies of the agricultural sector in the development perspective document, which insist on food security of the country by relying on production from domestic sources and emphasize on the self-sufficiency of production of basic products, the development of the agricultural sector has always been a matter of concern for the policymakers. One of the most important limitations in the agricultural sector is the limitation of financial resources for using modern technologies and the creation of higher added value products. Among the factors influencing the formation of an efficient financing system is the instability in other financial markets, especially the exchange rate, which affects the country's GDP and creates cyclical effects, finally affecting the performance of the banking sector. In fact, the impact of GDP on banking ability to provide facilities during periods of recession and booms is explained through business cycles. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of fluctuations in some asset markets such as exchange rate and stock index along with the variables of business cycles and agricultural products import on the efficiency of agricultural facilities.

In the present study, several econometric models have been used to investigate the effect of exchange rate and stock index fluctuations and business cycles on the efficiency of agricultural facilities. Initially, wavelet transform model was used to extract exchange rate and stock index fluctuations. The Daubechies discrete wavelet was used for this purpose. The advantage of this approach over the family of Arch models is the ability to distinguish fluctuations across time periods. In addition, Hodrick Prescott filter was used to extract business cycles, and Bootstrap data envelopment analysis approach was applied to evaluate the efficiency of agricultural facilities. The advantage of this approach over the data envelopment analysis approach is its bias correction and greater stability. The Markov switching model was also used to estimate the final research pattern. The used period in the study is 1384:1-1396:4.

According to Hamilton's study, the intercept that has the lowest coefficient indicates a low regime (low efficiency of facilities granted to the agricultural sector) and the intercept with a highest coefficient indicates the high regime (high efficiency of facilities granted to agriculture). Therefore, the zero regime in the present study indicates the high efficiency regime while regime indicates the low efficiency regime of the granted facilities. Based on the results of model estimation, the occurrence of business cycles in all regimes would lead to decline in the efficiency of the banking network facilities provided to the agricultural sector. The impact of exchange rate fluctuations depends on the time period. Short-term fluctuations have no significant effect on facility efficiency but medium- and long-term fluctuations have a negative significant impact. If the currency market volatility persists, it would reduce the efficiency, regardless of the regime and the level of efficiency of the facility. Of course long-term exchange rate fluctuations will have a stronger negative impact when the regime of agricultural facilities efficiency is high. Stock index fluctuations in the medium and long term also have a positive and significant impact when the efficiency of agricultural facilities is high. In case of high efficiency level of agricultural facilities, increasing imports of agricultural products will lead to decrease in efficiency.

In many studies on the effect of exchange rate, stock fluctuations, and business cycles on the performance of the banking network, several important factors have been ignored such as regime changes, and time-scale in the efficiency of facilities granted to the agricultural sector. Due to different impacts of exchange rate and stock index fluctuations across different time periods as well as on the different efficiency regimes of agricultural sector facilities, the policymakers of currency and capital market should manage currency and stocks based on the volatility period and the level of efficiency of facility. In fact, in such situation, the nonperforming loans will be less and the banking network will not have problem to finance the agricultural sector.

The majority of countries in order to develop their international trade and achieve a higher share in the world market, are adopting different trade policies with taking into account the effects of factors affecting on agricultural trade. The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of macroeconomics factors affecting on agricultural trade using a vector autoregressive model for years 1982 to 2016. The results indicate that a shock on variables such as agricultural value added and investment in agricultural sector have positive effects on agricultural trade. While exchange rate, terms of trade and tariff have negative impacts. The results also show that the short term impact of the study variables is significantly high but it is gradually reducing over time and in long term it becomes very low. According to the results obtained from the analysis of variance, in the long term, the shock from trade, value added, investment, exchange rate, terms of trade and tariff rate have 76.7%, 3%, 8.1%, 5.4%, 5.5% and 1.2% impact on agricultural trade respectively .

over the previous years, with development and expansion of broiler breeding units and its increasing production, chicken meat has become an essential commodity in the household food basket and has been attributed as one of the most important sources of protein supply for households. Recently, the chicken market pricing as well as exchange rate volatility has become one of the issues in that industry. One of the main sources of this risk in the chicken market is the exchange rate volatility, which affects the imported inputs markets.   The current analysis is based on 21 years of monthly data on exchange rate, chicken price, corn price, soybean meal price and fish powder price over the period 1995-2016 obtained from the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of IRAN and Livestock Support Company of Iran. In present study, the risk of overflow between the exchange market and the chicken market and its major import inflows are examined. Estimation has been carried out using GARCH-type models, based on the multi variation GARCH (MV-GARCH), for both the extreme downside and upside Value-at-Risks (VaR) of exchange rate volatility risk and chicken market and its major inputs markets. It depicts market risk by means of the probability distribution of a random variable and evaluates the risk with a single real number. While the VaR method is used to measure extreme market risk, as the risk interaction and spillover effect among different markets is apparent. Furthermore, according to a new concept of Granger causality in risk, a kernel-based test is proposed to detect extreme risk spillover effect between two mentioned markets. The methodology used is Granger causality in risk provided by Hong (2001) and Hong et al. (2003). It requires that the time-varying VaR to be evaluated for each return, and then it should be determined if the historical information about risk in one market increases one's ability to forecast its occurrence in another market in terms of Granger causality concept.   According to the results of the Dickey-Fuller unit root test, all variables are stationary at first difference, and based on the results of the seasonal unit root test, seasonal behavior pattern in variables has been found. Then volatility clustering was confirmed by testing heterogeneity of conditional variance. Since the results showed cluster fluctuations in the variables, we evaluated the MGARCH and TGARCH models and then we used VaR to estimate the value series at risk for all variables. The result of VaR section showed that the upside risk of chicken and Fish powder is the highest, and soybean meal and exchange rate having the least risk. In the downside risk chicken and fish powder were known as the most risky markets, corn and exchange rate as least risky. But it is fascinating about the exchange rate that it has a higher upside risk than the downside risk. In other words, there is a greater risk for an increase in the exchange rate market. Finally, the relationship between risks of markets was investigated using risk granger causation. The results indicated that there are over and over additional risks for traders in all of these markets and there is a significant risk spillover between the exchange market and the chicken market and its major inputs markets, the severity of upside spillover is higher than the falling price of the exchange rate. There is a significant risk spillover between the chicken market and its major inputs market at the 95% and 99% confidence levels and in all interruptions, there is a spillover of upside and downside risk.   The exchange rate as a key variable, influences many of the government's policies and economic decisions. Any volatility in the exchange rate will have an adverse impact on both micro and macro levels. Given its impact on the imported input market, it is recommended that a coherent program of foreign exchange market management and stabilization to be developed by the central bank and the government. taking into account the high impression of the input market from volatility and exchange rate risk, it is suggested that, as far as the principle of comparative advantage allows, more strategic inputs such as corn and soybeans to be produced. Considering impressionability of Chicken markets from its inputs market in order to provide consumer welfare and prevent the imposition of additional costs, it is recommended a duplicate effort to be made to implement the policies of market regulation of inputs and reduce volatility in these markets.

Iran's agricultural sector has a bilateral relations with major world markets, because of Exporters roles and on the other hand importers of inputs for the livestock industry. It is clear, due to the import of such transactions might be influenced by the price changing and global crisis. So in this study,we are modeling dependence among oil prices, exchange rate with prices of imported inputs of livestock industry in the period 1995-2004 (before the crisis) and 2005-2014 (after the crisis) with using the Copulas approach based on ARMA-MGARCH. Our results indicate that, prices of Corn, Soybean and Barley with Oil price in after crisis period has an high and positive correlation rather than before crisis period. For example the correlation between Oil price and Corn price are increase from 0.05 in before crisis to 0.20 in after crisis. So it seemed that Iraq - USA war, Global Financial Crisis and Global increase in food prices might be effective to our imported inputs in livestock industry.

This paper aims to evaluate and compare the convergence of market agricultural products in D8 and G7 countries using gravity model during 1995-2012. According to results, the gravity model explains about 79 and 96 percent of the agricultural sector trade arrangements between D8 and G7Countries, respectively. The results also showed that the estimated coefficient of added value variable in agricultural sector of i and j countries in G7 and D8 groups is positive. Estimated Linder coefficient index is not significant for G7 countries but was significant and positive for D8 countries. Estimated population index of the country i is significant and equals to - 3.25, and 1.69 for D8 G7 countries which is not significant. Estimated population index of country i for D8 and G7 countries are 0.69 and 0.41 respectively. The estimated exchange rate coefficient of country i for the G7 and D8 groups is positive and significant while the estimated exchange rate coefficients of country j is negative for both groups of countries.

Iran Mercantile Exchange begins in 2007 in order to reduce market inefficiencies for agricultural products to the market place and one of its objectives is to control price fluctuations of agricultural products. The aim of this study was to evaluate fluctuations in prices of agricultural products in the Iran Mercantile Exchange by using vector autoregressive (VAR) and GARCH models. This study analyses and compares the price volatility of barley in Iran Mercantile Exchange by the domestic traditional market and the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The results show more fluctuations in barley prices in Iran Mercantile Exchange compared with the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. The changes of crude oil prices and exchange rate caused significant changes on barley prices in Mercantile Exchange is Iran.

After employing the policy of subsidies targeted of energy carriers and essential commodities (wheat and flour), the exchange rate rose and also more financial constraints imposed on Iran. Given the importance of the field of wheat, flour and bread to feed the population, this study is done to investigate the effects of subsidies targeted of energy carriers and essential commodities, exchange rates rise and currency restrictions of boycott on wheat, flour and bread. Considering the advantages of computable general equilibrium model, a CGE model is used based on the ORANI_G pattern and economic structure is adjusted for Iran. Comparing the results of dual scenarios indicates that, exchange rate will improve the results of subsidies on wheat, flour and bread in the long run. Therefore, improving the infrastructure and providing the necessary conditions to enter private sectors in wheat, flour and bread field have been proposed.