Evaluation of Probable Consequences of water Transfer of from Zab River to Lake Urmia

Reliable water supply is one of the main challenges of this century. One of the ways of water supply is inter-basin water transfer schemes which can be useful in some cases and could save the destination basin. One of the projects, discussed recently, is water transfer project from Zab River basin to Urmia Lake. This study made an attempt to utilize the opinions of one hundred relevant experts and authorities to predict the positive and negative logistical consequences of this transfer in the basin of origin and destination by the statistical analysis of Multivariate linear regression. The results of linear regression model showed that due to the weight of standardized coefficients of the examined factors (B2), negative socio-cultural consequences of (0.328), negative economic consequences of (0.249), positive economic outcome of (0.216), negative environmental consequences of (0.210), negative political and security consequences of (0.174), positive environmental impact of (0.156), positive outcome of the political-security of (0.087), and the positive outcome of socio-cultural of (0.070), are the most possible consequences of transferring water from Zab to Urmia Lake respectively. According to experts, the interesting and significant point is that water transport in terms of environmental issues cannot save Urmia Lake and may act as an antidote. The results of structural equation modeling on each of the components of the implementation plan showed that among the positive consequences; environmental factors with the effect of (. 85), and among the negative consequences; socio-cultural factors with the effect of (1.10) have the highest impact on water transport.