Assessing the physical resilience of a city against possible earthquakes (Case Study: region one of Tehran)

The vast environmental damages of earthquakes have recently attracted more attentions to the concept of resilience to minimize the pernicious effects of such disaster. The present study evaluates the physical resilience in municipality region one of Tehran against the possible earthquakes. Using a descriptive-analytic method and GIS modeling, data were analyzed based on results obtained by network analysis process. The general resilience map of the region was drawn. Then a fuzzy technique was applied to the map to create different scenarios of earthquake magnitudes. The results indicated that in a probable earthquake of 6 Richter’s magnitude scale, 11.13 percent of constructions would locate at the low and very low resilience range. In such a scenario except two, other neighborhoods of the region would not be facing a serious vulnerability. With a probable 7 Richter’s scenario, the previous percentage would increase to 39. In a probable 8 Richter’s scenario, 52.29 percent of constructions would be faced with serious danger by which almost all rural textures fall in the very low range of resilience scale. Finally, in a probable 9 Richter’s scenario, 67.45 percent of constructions would fall at low and very low range of resilience scale. Most of them locate at areas of 1, 3, 4, 5 and 8 of the region.