Survey of the number of deceased drowned in the country between 2005 and 2016 and forecast of drowning trends using Arima time series

One of the criteria for measuring the development indicators of a country is the rate of health in accidents and disasters. Every year a large number of people in Iran suffer from drowning for various reasons.

This study is a longitudinal time series study, using forensic statistics from the country forensic medicine from 2005 to 2016, predicting the future using the Arima time series method. Box Jenkins models used to estimate the drowning process include the Auto Regression (AR) process of moving average (MA) the moving average auto regression process (ARMA) and the cumulative moving average autoregressive process (ARIMA). ITSM software was used for data analysis.

During 2005-2016, a total of 14127 people died in drowning in the country, which is an average of 1086 deaths per year. . Survey of the last year of drowning study in this study (2017) shows that the highest number of deceased was related to Khuzestan province with 161 people and the lowest was related to South Khorasan province with one deceased. Estimates of the drowning trend show that the number of drowning in the country will continue to decline in the coming years.

The trend of the number of deaths from drowning in the descending country is indicative of the effectiveness of measures to reduce drowning accidents, so by continuing and improving drowning mortality programs, the downward trend can be reduced. Lowered.