Explaining the performance of new cities on the horizon 1410 (Case study: New cities in Tehran metropolitan area)

The growing trend of migration from village to city after the industrial revolution has led to the formation of metropolises in the regional space. Subsequently, it has paved the way for environmental, economic, social, cultural, and physical challenges on a large scale in cities. In order to overcome the problems, various programs and policies were mentioned and implemented. The latest policy in this field was to build new cities as the most direct policy for controlling and organizing metropolises. The aim of this study was to explain the performance of new cities on the horizon of 1410 in an attempt to determine the success rate of new cities in order to organize the metropolis of Tehran. For this purpose43indicators have been used in 6 components, which have been used to measure the relationship between indicators and extract key factors from MICMAC software and to explain the possible performance of serious cities, Wizard scenario has been used. Research has shown that the performance of new cities on the 1410 horizon represents four strong scenarios, 780 weak scenarios and 21 possible scenarios. Unfavorable scenarios out of a total of 210 possible states with 129 states and % 61 coefficients with characteristics (reduction of employment level, decrease of physical quality of the region, increase of concentration policy, increase of marginalization, decrease of belonging, formation of urban chain trend, increase of migration to Tehran, increasing the difference in service distribution, increasing the level of pollution, dormancy in new cities) have been the most likely scenarios.