Scenarios for Yemen's future position in the West Asian regional equations based on critical uncertainties

The invasion of the Arab-Western coalition (centered on Saudi Arabia) has made the Yemeni scene one of the most complex crises in the West Asian region. The final outcome of the Yemeni crisis, while having a significant impact on shaping the security order in the future of the West Asian region, will also determine the country's position in the future equations of the region. The main feature of this crisis is the multiplicity of actors involved and the conflict of stakeholders' demands.With due attention to the strategic position of Yemen in regional and world politics and the possession of the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, each of the actors is trying to steer Yemen in the direction of its desired scenarios. In fact, each of the influential actors in Yemen, based on their interests and values, considers a favorable situation (scenario) for Yemen, while this scenario can be considered for the other actor an unfavorable and threatening scenario. The present study seeks to answer the questions: What are the main uncertainties of the Yemeni crisis? And with regards to the uncertainties of the Yemeni crisis, what scenarios can be imagined for the Yemen's position in the future equations of the West Asian region? To answer this question, the scenario building method and the critical uncertainty approach have been used.Havingidentified the uncertainties based on the opinions of experts, from their interaction, four scenarios, which are the isolation of Yemen in the regional equations, the alliance with the Eastern-Islamic Front (enhancing Yemen's position in the regional equations), the alliance with the Salafi-Western Front (weakened and trusteeshipYemen) and strong Yemen (independent of the intervention of regional and supra-regional actors) have been presented.