Investigating the Rivers Role in the Gorgan Bay Possible Future After Separation From the Caspian Sea

Investigating the Rivers Role in the Gorgan Bay Possible Future After Separation From the Caspian Sea In this research, the probable future of the Gorgan Bay after separation from the Caspian Sea under five scenarios is examined using Mike 21 model. In the first scenario, the bay was studied under the influence of the prevailing climate on it. In the second scenario, the bay was studied under the influence of the climate and river inputs. In the next three scenarios, bay was assessed under the influence of climate and rivers environmental minimum requirements according to Tennant (1976) suggestions. The modeling results under the first scenario showed that, 551 days after the separation of the bay from the Sea, the bay would be dwarfed by the climate conditions. Modeling results under the second scenario showed that bay after 1110 days, it becomes a wetland with a minimum area of 51 km2. Modeling results under the third, fourth and fifth scenarios showed that the bay after 653, 665 and 1015 days into a wetland with a minimum area of 7, 12 and 32 km2 respectively. So long as the Gorgan Bay be connected to the mother sea determining the biological water right from rivers leading to it will not help to increasing the water level and prevent dryness of the bay. However, after separating the bay from the mother sea water supply through rivers will have a significant impact on the formation of wetland. The northern and western prevailing winds have a greatest impact on increasing of the bay area in the northeast part and temporary wetlands creating under presumed scenarios due to the formation of stormsurg. If the bay does not communicate with the sea and does not provide water right supplies of rivers, ecological successions in the Gorgan bay will be disclimax.