The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth (Study of MENAP Member Countries)

The phenomenon of population aging is one of the most important economic, social and health challenges in the present century. Population changes can have a profound and important impact on economic growth. The aim of this study was to investigate and analyze the effect of population aging on economic growth in 20 member countries of MENA and Pakistan (MANAP) in the period 1960-2019 using two models of generalized method of moments (GMM) and panel vector autoregressive (PVAR). The results of the present study show that a one percent increase in population growth has led to an increase of 0.0021 in economic growth, while a one percent increase in the variables of the share of the elderly population (65 years and older) and the dependency ratio of the elderly population to the working age population decreases the economic growth by 0.2804 and 0.014, respectively. According to the research results, it is recommended that the government introduces incentive policies for population growth, including maternity leave for women, allocating financial resources to households to bear children and other financial supports to parents, as well as policies to reduce the effects of population aging, including increased capital accumulation and using capitalist methods in production and increased labor productivity through training and skills development.