Potential geographic distribution of Prangos ferulacea (L.) Lindl. in Chaharmahal va Bakhtiari province under climate change scenarios

Prangos ferulacea (L.) Lindl is a perennial plant that besides fodder and medicinal values the plant can help to control soil erosion. There is little knowledge about the effect of climate change on the Prangos genus especially P. ferulacea. In this study, we used ensemble modeling based on five species distribution models to predict the potential effects of climate change on the future geography distribution of Prangos ferulace. The presence of P. ferulacea points was recorded from our field surveys (during the years 2019 and 2020) in Chaharmahal-va-Bakhtiari province as a part of Central Zagros, Iran. The future projections were made for the year 2070 with three SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios and general circulation model GFDL-ESM4. To do this, species occurrence data (48 points), along with 11 environmental variables including bioclimatic, physiographic and land cover/land use variables were used. Our findings show that the estimated suitable habitats of the species covers about 30.88% of the study area for the P. ferulacea. The Precipitation of the wettest month, Mean diurnal range and Precipitation seasonality had the greatest effects on the species’ distribution in the study area. The decline of suitable habitats will be 23.98% to 32.4% by 2070. In contrast, 9.3% to 20.3% of currently unsuitable habitats can become suitable with climate changes. Also, the results showed excellent performance of the Ensemble model (AUC= 0.97, TSS= 0.83). The results of the present study can provide valuable information for policymakers and planners to adapt and conserve this species against future climate change.