جستجوی مقالات مرتبط با کلیدواژه « ensemble modeling » در نشریات گروه « اکولوژی »

Specialized species living in high mountain areas face more threats compared to species living in low altitudes, primarily due to habitat destruction or fragmentation and climate change.The Caspian snowcock is a  species with a specialized ecological niche and serves as an indicator of mountain ecosystems. Despite the high sensitivity of this species to habitat changes and its role as an umbrella or flagship species in mountainous areas, there is a scarcity of data on the ecology of this species. In the current study, we predicted the geographical range of this bird using 262 presence localities and 10 environmental and anthropogenic variables within an ensemble framework, resulting from five modeling algorithms. Based on the ensemble model, about 96527.4 km2 (5.8%) of the country was identified as a suitable habitat for the Caspian snowcock. Potential habitats of the species appeared to be strongly influenced by topographical roughness (30.02), average annual temperature (29.61), altitude (18.57), and isothermality (14.14). About 16.04% and 23.13% of the predicted suitable range overlapped with no-hunting  and protected areas. It is suggested that effective conservation measures should be taken by focusing on the possible threats caused by human activities, including the development of tourism infrastructure, road networks, overgrazing, and poaching.

Prangos ferulacea (L.) Lindl is a perennial plant that besides fodder and medicinal values the plant can help to control soil erosion. There is little knowledge about the effect of climate change on the Prangos genus especially P. ferulacea. In this study, we used ensemble modeling based on five species distribution models to predict the potential effects of climate change on the future geography distribution of Prangos ferulace. The presence of P. ferulacea points was recorded from our field surveys (during the years 2019 and 2020) in Chaharmahal-va-Bakhtiari province as a part of Central Zagros, Iran. The future projections were made for the year 2070 with three SSP126, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios and general circulation model GFDL-ESM4. To do this, species occurrence data (48 points), along with 11 environmental variables including bioclimatic, physiographic and land cover/land use variables were used. Our findings show that the estimated suitable habitats of the species covers about 30.88% of the study area for the P. ferulacea. The Precipitation of the wettest month, Mean diurnal range and Precipitation seasonality had the greatest effects on the species’ distribution in the study area. The decline of suitable habitats will be 23.98% to 32.4% by 2070. In contrast, 9.3% to 20.3% of currently unsuitable habitats can become suitable with climate changes. Also, the results showed excellent performance of the Ensemble model (AUC= 0.97, TSS= 0.83). The results of the present study can provide valuable information for policymakers and planners to adapt and conserve this species against future climate change.

Climate change may make challenges to the conservation of plant species such as the Fritillaria imperialis that have narrow geographical distribution. In this study, the modeling suitable habitats of F. imperialis in Iran was done in the current condition and under climate change (2050). In so doing, 78 species presence data along with 12 environmental variables including bioclimatic, physiographic and land cover/land use variables were used. The ensemble modelling consisting of seven Species Distribution Models (SDMs) was coupled with three general circulation models and four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) scenario. Our findings showed that estimated potential habitats of the species cover about 7.69% of the study area while approximately 9.08% of these suitable areas were covered by conservation areas. Due to climate change, the least and most decline of suitable habitats 46.1% to 77.37% might occur in 2050 respectively. Minimum temperature of the coldest month, elevation, and annual precipitation, had the greatest effects on the species’ distribution in the study area. In keeping with the results, F. imperialis was predicted to shift toward higher elevation under climate change. The accuracy of the maps was assessed and functioning of all models was acceptable (AUC> 0.87 and TSS> 0.75). The suitable habitat identified could be considered for the adoption of management and conservation approaches, including re-introduction and the establishment of new protected areas in order to protect F. imperialis against the expected climate change impacts.