Eco-friendly Public Transportation Scenarios of Tehran Metropolitan in 2031 Horizon

Transitioning from private transportation into public transportation, provides environmental sustainability, as well as, economic and social benefits. However, this type of sustainability in the Tehran metropolis has been less studied from a future perspective. In fact, as an interdisciplinary knowledge, future studies provide a tool to assess sustainability in public transportation systems. Therefore, the present study has evaluated the future state of the public transportation system of Tehran's metropolis from the viewpoint of compatibility with the environment.

This is a "survey" carried out based on the experts' opinion and through the "explanatory-evaluation" path. The study is done in 2021 in order to propose possible scenarios for 2031. 12 qualified experts in "future studies" and "transportation and urban traffic", who were selected in a targeted manner, participated in this study. Data analysis was done using "theme analysis", "mean comparison" and "scenario" methods.

8 out of 41 drives affecting the future of the public transportation system in Tehran were identified as the key drivers. Then, 11 scenarios were obtained after defining three favorable, static and critical states for each of the key drivers, in which 6 scenarios were more probable and more credible in the Tehran metropolis. However, scenario number 2, which is the continuation of the current situation, was recognized as the most likely scenario for the next 10 years in Tehran.

Achievement of the environmental sustainability in the future of the public transportation system of the Tehran metropolis is dependent on investment and financing the development of new technologies and environmental standards. Accurate planning and policy-making are of great importance in the achievement of this goal at the level of the metropolitan area.