Investigating the effects of Disinflation monetary policies on economic security and growth in Iran

Economic insecurity means the existence of risks limiting economic growth. On the other hand, considering that economic insecurity has important effects on consumption decisions, savings and labor market balance, it can be said that economic security is an important part of economic well-being, which is largely affected by the country's economic policies. Policies and programs to deal with inflation and especially the effect of monetary policies on the nominal and real variables of the economy is one of the most important topics in the literature of monetary economics. This research examines changes in economic growth and economic security index in Iran. Through modeling the application of a contractionary monetary policy for the period of 1988-2021 using the structural autoregression model (SVAR), the obtained results show that the contractionary impulse on the growth of the country's liquidity has a negative reaction on the growth of GDP per capita in It follows in the short term. But in the long term and gradually with the reduction of inflation, its initial effects will be moderated and the country's economic growth will improve. Based on this, the calculated production sacrifice ratio is -3.52. According to the results of the research, the negativeness of the calculated ratio means that in Iran's economy, the application of monetary policy to achieve a lower inflationary trend has a long effect interval (about five years) and during this Over the years, production not only compensates for its initial decrease over time, but also increases by 3.52%. Also, in the examination of the relationship between the economic security index and the negative impulse of the monetary policy, it can be seen that it has a negative reaction in the short term, which is mostly due to the direct effects of the reduction in production growth and also the reverse effects of the growth of the general level of prices on the economic security index. In the long term, the gradual decrease in inflation leads to the improvement of the economic security index. The results also show that both in the short term and in the long term, the most important variable affecting the changes in production growth is the impulse resulting from the economic security index, which indicates the great importance of the stability of economic conditions, whether the absence or reduction of unemployment risks, the risk of growth of health costs. And private treatment shows the risk of poverty and risks caused by inflationary uncertainties.