taghi ebrahimi salari

Although there has been an increasing amount of literature for a more detailed analysis of the corporate governance environment, they have tried to model its main policies including three factors of investment, dividend payout and financing, but there are still some unanswered questions in this regard. Some things like, how is the interaction between different financial behaviors of the company? And is it possible that, in the face of unstable conditions, maintaining a financial behavior and consequently a particular policy at its steady state level is superior to others? The main goal of this research is to provide empirical evidence of the joint and simultaneous determination of the aforementioned behaviors, while examining the dynamic interactions of financial behaviors of companies. This research uses the vector auto regression panel modeling framework, which prevents the researcher from predetermining the role and relationship of several key behaviors of the firm., the main variables of the research include: the investment decision of the company (in the form of the ratio of capital expenditures to total assets), the amount of dividend payout (the rate of dividend payout was obtained by dividing the amount of cash dividend by the total assets), decisions to issuance (repurchase) equity (the ratio of issuance(or repurchase) of equity over total assets), the company's leverage ratio (the company's total debt divided by total assets) and return on assets (net income divided by total assets). The unit root showed that all research variables are at a stable level, and the circle unit root test indicates that the model satisfies the condition of stability. A study conducted on a selected sample of 118 companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange showed that during the years 2006 to 2022, all firm s financial behaviors are jointly determined and the companies have changed the amount of dividend payout payout, debt, investment and finally the shares issued, respectively, in order to absorb the incoming shocks, which is a confirmation of Hierarchical theory of financial resources. Also, it seems that the incentive of signaling is weak among the sample companies and changing the dividend payout is considered the easiest tool to adjust the costs, maintain the value of the company and make the company more agile. Some of the results of financial behavior of companies are as follows:Investment is largely determined exogenously, and firms adjust investment only slightly, about 22 percent, to absorb shocks to other financial behaviors. This issue can be due to the high cost of stopping and starting an investment project.There is the least willingness to adjust decisions related to issuing shares to achieve other financial goals. This issue can be caused by the adverse effects of issuing shares according to the theory of agency costs. But unlike some studies that introduce dividend payout payout rates as stickier than leverage rates (such as Fama and French, 2002), in this analysis, in order to absorb shocks to other variables, dividend payout changes are observed more than leverage rates. Therefore, it can be said that dividend payout decisions are the most endogenous financial decisions in Iran.Firms tend to adjust existing shocks by changing dividend payout instead of adjusting other financial behaviors. However, even this number of changes indicates that the dividend payout is not a pure shock absorber. In other words, it may be the first choice, but it is not the only financial behavior that is always used to absorb incoming shocks.Stock issuance (or repurchase) decisions have the highest cost of deviation. Stock issuance (or repurchase) decisions expose managements inside information to the public, so it is natural that they do not want to continually signal to the market that their stock is overvalued by issuing stock. Therefore, companies refuse to use this financial behavior to absorb shocks to the company. The results of the research showed that with a shock to any of the financial behaviors, other financial behaviors also change, which is a confirmation of the joint determination of the desired financial behaviors of the company. It also seems that the change in the amount of equity, or the net issuance of shares, according to what is always emphasized in the hierarchy theory, entails a very high cost for the company so companies avoid its continuous changes. At the same time, contrary to existing primary studies, the company's dividend payout payout according to the evidence of the study (Allen and Michele, 2003) does not contain information about the company's future earnings. In other words, maintaining a stable and uniform distribution of profits has the lowest priority among financial behaviors, which shows that there are no concerns about the motivation of signaling among the companies sampled in this research. Also, due to the concentration of ownership of companies or the close relationship with borrowers in bank-oriented countries similar to Iran, the level of motivation for signaling is low. Based on this, one of the future proposals of this study is to examine the interaction of financial behaviors of companies by considering the decision-making space of companies by introducing frictions such as various uncertainties, the diversity of institutional levels of companies and various financial structures using the approach considered in this research.

Inadequate risk assessment of policyholders is a significant challenge in the health insurance industry. This research proposes a customer validation model for health insurance plans, focusing specifically on employees of the East Iran Oil Company.

In this study, a Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) neural network with six steps is employed for customer validation. Weight training, a crucial step in neural network implementation, determines the influence of explanatory variables on the model's output. The trained model is then used for validation.

Validation results indicate that health insurance claim variables and specific disease variables have the highest impact on unhealthy customer classification. Notably, the validation process identified approximately 1.8% of the population as "unhealthy." This seemingly small group accounts for a disproportionately high 17.47% of the company's total health insurance claims, despite currently being classified and charged premiums as healthy individuals.

The proposed validation model offers a practical approach for insurance companies to assess customer risk profiles and tailor premiums accordingly. This approach promotes a more equitable and sustainable insurance system. JEL classification: C52, I13, C45

The enabling factor for entering the process of globalization is the creation of a competitive enviroment. The goal is to achieve competitive power through growth, development, and improvement in the quality of life. Competitiveness is the foundation for the economic growth of countries worldwide, and the real exchange rate is a good indicator for examination of a country's competitiveness in global markets. It is a variable through which we can assess the relative price of traded and non-traded goods. If there are no changes in the relative prices of other countries in the world and the real exchange rate decreases, it indicates a weakening of the international competitiveness of domestically produced goods. High fluctuations and lack of stability in real exchange rates can create an unstable environment for international trade and, as a result, reduce trade. Given the significance of the real exchange rate in influencing other macroeconomic variables and creating an uncertain environment, having knowledge of the future changes in the real exchange rate can play a crucial role in assisting monetary authorities to increase employment levels and stabilize prices.Since many microeconomic and macroeconomic variables are influenced by the exchange rate, a proper understanding of the linear or nonlinear behavior of the exchange rate can help policymakers, firms, and traders make accurate decisions in order to effectuate desired changes.

 THEORETICAL FRAMEWORK:

The relationship between the national currency and the value of the national currency against foreign currencies is called the exchange rate. In international banking, the term "currency" refers to foreign money, sometimes including the adjective "foreign" to distinguish it from the domestic or local currency of a country. Currency is not limited to banknotes issued by central banks. It includes documents such as checks, drafts, and promissory notes that are used for international payments.Due to resource allocation based on relative prices in the free market, efficient resource allocation occurs when relative prices are properly adjusted and serve as an indicator of the real value of resources. The exchange rate is one of the most important prices, and deviations from equilibrium can disrupt the prices of other goods and services. Generally, exchange rates are divided into several categories: 1) Nominal exchange rate, 2) Real exchange rate, 3) Effective nominal exchange rate. The nominal exchange rate is the price of one unit of a currency in terms of another currency on a specific day and at a specific time. The mention of a specific time is necessary because the exchange rate may change during different hours of the day. It is common to express the price of one unit of foreign currency in terms of domestic currency in exchange rate calculations.Changes in the real exchange rate have a significant impact on the balance of payments and the international competitiveness of a country. Economists agree that an inappropriate level of stability for the real exchange rate leads to a decrease in national welfare. Thus, the instability of the real exchange rate from its equilibrium level leads to severe imbalances in the economy.

To investigate the nonlinear behavior of the real exchange rate in Iran and in order to examine the nonlinear behavior of the real exchange rate in Iranian economy during the years 2004:04- 2018:02 two models have been applied: Self-Exciting Threshold Autoregressive (SETAR) model and Logistic Smooth Transition Autoregressive (LSTAR) model.

The possibility of threshold behavior in the real exchange rate has been confirmed by Broock, Dechert, and Scheinkman (1987) and Hansen (1999) test. Subsequently, the threshold values for the growth of the real exchange rate were calculated to be 3.84% in the first model (SETAR) and 5% in the second model (LSTAR).In the first model, when the growth rate of the real exchange rate is below 3.84%, the growth rate of real exchange rate is minimal and classified as a regime with low growth. If the growth rate of the real exchange rate exceeds the threshold value (3.84%), its stability increases. In other words, when the growth rate of the real exchange rate is severe in Iran's economy, it is expected to be stable.In the second model, values less than 5% are classified as a regime with low growth, while values greater than 5% are classified as a regime with high growth. The estimated coefficients for different orders in the two regimes indicate that if the growth rate of the real exchange rate is greater than 5%, this variable will exhibit stable behavior. However, at values below the threshold, due to the insignificance of the coefficients, this property will not be applicable.

CONCLUSIONS & SUGGESTIONS:

The results demonstrated the possibility of nonlinear behavior in the growth rate of the real exchange rate. After calculating the optimal order for AR and considering other econometric requirements (Hansen test), two models, namely SETAR and LSTAR, were estimated. The threshold value was calculated to be 3.84% for the first model and 5% for the second model. In both models, it was observed that as long as the growth rate of the real exchange rate remains in a severe regime, it exhibits significant stability and is positively influenced by its past values.

This study investigates the connectedness between the dynamic fluctuations of the exchange rate uncertainty and the fluctuations of various industries in the stock market in the time and frequency range (short-term, medium-term and long-term) during the monthly period of 2013-06-2023:05 in Iran. Using the time-frequency connectedness approach developed by Diebold and Yilmaz (2009, 2012) and Barunik and Krehlik (2018), the results show a significant connectedness between macroeconomic variables uncertainty fluctuations and fluctuations of various industries in the stock market in the short and medium term, while this connectedness decreases in long term. In the time domain, exchange rate uncertainty acts as a transmitter of shocks to different sectors of stock market. In the frequency domain, fluctuations of the net uncertainty spillover of the exchange rate in the medium term are more than in the short term and long term. This shows that exchange rate uncertainty in the medium term transmits more shocks to sectors of different industries of the stock market. Also, in the short term, the chemical, cement, basic metals, investment, and pharmaceutical sectors, in the medium term the petroleum products sector, and in the long term, the petroleum and chemical products sectors are more vulnerable and more affected by the exchange rate uncertainty spillover. It is recommended that the policy maker adopt macro policies and the investor to gain profit in the stock market should pay more attention to the sectors that are more vulnerable in the conditions of the exchange rate uncertainty in a different range of frequency

Economic insecurity means the existence of risks limiting economic growth. On the other hand, considering that economic insecurity has important effects on consumption decisions, savings and labor market balance, it can be said that economic security is an important part of economic well-being, which is largely affected by the country's economic policies. Policies and programs to deal with inflation and especially the effect of monetary policies on the nominal and real variables of the economy is one of the most important topics in the literature of monetary economics. This research examines changes in economic growth and economic security index in Iran. Through modeling the application of a contractionary monetary policy for the period of 1988-2021 using the structural autoregression model (SVAR), the obtained results show that the contractionary impulse on the growth of the country's liquidity has a negative reaction on the growth of GDP per capita in It follows in the short term. But in the long term and gradually with the reduction of inflation, its initial effects will be moderated and the country's economic growth will improve. Based on this, the calculated production sacrifice ratio is -3.52. According to the results of the research, the negativeness of the calculated ratio means that in Iran's economy, the application of monetary policy to achieve a lower inflationary trend has a long effect interval (about five years) and during this Over the years, production not only compensates for its initial decrease over time, but also increases by 3.52%. Also, in the examination of the relationship between the economic security index and the negative impulse of the monetary policy, it can be seen that it has a negative reaction in the short term, which is mostly due to the direct effects of the reduction in production growth and also the reverse effects of the growth of the general level of prices on the economic security index. In the long term, the gradual decrease in inflation leads to the improvement of the economic security index. The results also show that both in the short term and in the long term, the most important variable affecting the changes in production growth is the impulse resulting from the economic security index, which indicates the great importance of the stability of economic conditions, whether the absence or reduction of unemployment risks, the risk of growth of health costs. And private treatment shows the risk of poverty and risks caused by inflationary uncertainties.

One of the main ways to finance economic plans and projects and benefit from advanced knowledge and technology is to use foreign capital flows. According to many researchers, foreign capital flows can have effects such as improving household incomes, meeting foreign exchange needs, increasing job opportunities and improving human capital for the host country. Therefore, it is necessary to study the effect of different types of foreign capital flows on the macroeconomic indicators of the host country. Foreign direct investment and personal remittances are the biggest and most important of these foreign capital flows. As these currents increase, different effects of them appear on the host country. Among them, we can mention the effects of foreign direct investment and personal remittances on the human development index. Despite the importance of this issue, internal studies have paid less attention to it. The purpose of this study is to investigate the effect of foreign direct investment and personal remittances on the human development index in Iran. In this study time series data from 1991 to 2018 with the autoregressive distributed lag ARDL method and microfit 5.5 software are used. The results show that foreign direct investment has a positive and significant effect on the human development index in Iran. The results also indicate that remittances have a negative and significant effect on the human development index in Iran.

Sustainability is basically an exchange challenge that shows environment is under pressure to improve the human’s quality of well-being. Some of the introduced indicators, such as ecological footprint, environmental sustainability, environmental performance and human development, have received more attention. However, the lack of a comprehensive index that considers both economic and environmental criteria to measure sustainability can be seen. This subject seems to have been considered in the ecological intensity of well-being. Dietz. Rosa and York first introduced the index in 2012, defining it as the per capita pressure imposed on the environment for each unit of human well-being to measure sustainable development. For the first time in Iran, this study calculates the value of this index for the years 1996 to 2017 for Iran and predicts it for the years 2018 to 2022 using ARMA models and R software. The results show that despite the increase in the ecological footprint over the past three decades, the value of the EIWB has been almost halved, which indicates the improvement of life expectancy during this period.

Economic growth, effective factors and how to promote it have always been one of the most challenging issues in the economics and the most important goals of economic systems. Economic stability has been regarded as conspicuous among the factors affecting the growth. So, instability will change the outlook and make the results of economic activities unpredictable. Uncertainty is one of the concepts related to economic instability that has a long history in the economic literature. Considering the wide dimensions of the impact of uncertainty on the country's economy, addressing the impact of key economic variables on the issue of uncertainty is of great importance. Since Keynes introduced consumption as a function of income, various forms of income have become an integral part of the set of factors affecting consumption in all economic schools. The income needed to finance consumption also requires high and continuous economic growth. Therefore, uncertainty is also expected to affect consumption behavior.

Given the importance of this issue, this study was to investigate the direct and interactive effect of uncertainty on the consumers’ behavior. In this regard, the maximum available data on consumption expenditures (As an alternative of consumption), revenues, and money supply of OPEC countries over the period 2006–2018 was addressed. The economic uncertainty index was also calculated by MII method. All variables were considered in logarithmic and per capita form.  Also, according to the nature of the model and the data used, the panel threshold Regression (PTR) model was used. In this model, the direct effect of uncertainty were measured by introducing the uncertainty index in the equation, and the interactive effect were measured by studying the role of the uncertainty index in the explanatory variables’ effect. Using this model required the presence of a threshold and a nonlinear relationship between the variables. Accordingly, the threshold effect test was used.

The results of threshold effect test showed that one threshold value for the uncertainty variable was confirmed. The results indicated that the uncertainty variable, as expected, has a negative effect on the logarithm of per capita consumption expenditure. The need for precautionary savings and uncertainty about the sufficiency of income in financing consumer needs due to increased uncertainty reduces current consumption expenditures. The variable of per capita money (as representative of individual wealth) in both regims had a positive effect on the logarithm of per capita consumption expenditure. The magnitude of the coefficients indicated that at high levels of uncertainty, this effect was reduced. The logarithm of per capita income also in both regims had a positive effect on the logarithm of per capita consumption expenditure. However, at high levels of uncertainty, this effect was reduced.

According to the results, it can be said that that uncertainty had a negative significant effect on per capita consumption expenditures in the countries and period under study. The variables of per capita income and wealth had a positive significant effect on consumption expenditures. In contrast, there is a positive and significant correlation between the variables of per capita income and wealth with current consumption expenditures. However, the effect of these variables was asymmetric in different uncertainty regimes. So that at high levels of uncertainty, this effect was reduced. Therefore, it can be said that uncertainty will also indirectly affect consumption expenditures by affecting income and wealth. Given the results of the study and the widespread dimensions of uncertainty, the study's authors advise policymakers to be committed to the announced policies and to exercise caution in implementing discretionary policies. It is also suggested that the study of the future consequences of uncertainty using futuristic methods (Futures studies) be given more attention by other researchers.

One of the major events of 2020 is the corona epidemic disease, which has a profound impact on the global economy and financial markets. Because stock market returns react to important events, this study examines the stock returns of food, agriculture, pharmaceutical, tourism, and hotel industries in the context of the corona epidemic. For this purpose, using the data panel method, we have investigated the effect of daily deaths due to the Covid-19 virus from 22/02/2020 to 31/07/2021. The results indicate that the death numbers due to Covid-19 have a significant and asymmetric relationship with the stock returns of selected industries. Other variables, including the exchange rate-US dollar and the price of 18-carat gold, were also examined and had a significant, positive, and negative relationship with the stock returns of selected industries. Further analysis shows the asymmetric effect of Covid-19 mortality on stock returns of various industries. So that the return on stocks of the tourism industry, hotel management has a negative and significant relationship with daily mortality due to Corona. The variable of the daily death numbers due to Covid-19 with the stock returns of food and pharmaceutical industries is positive and statistically significant.

The goal of all the world''s economies is economic development. Many developed countries have experienced economic development through industry. In recent years we have witnessed an increasing trend among less developed countries to industrialize. That is why the discussion of "industrialization" is an important topic in the writings of economic development. Industrialization has been a major factor in the economic development of developed countries, and industrialization has deep links with the issue of underdevelopment and backwardness.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of structural shocks on inflation, oil prices, world price index, interest rate, money supply, exchange rate and total production on industrial production based on quarterly data (1370-1395) and estimate the severity of the effect of each. On industrialization, using structural vector autoregression model (svar). The research data were extracted from the databases of the World Bank, the Central Bank, the Journal of Economic Indicators, the Statistics Center of Iran and OPEC.

First, the effect of structural shock of variables on industrial production is estimated and the table of variance analysis is given below. The results showed that the shock of oil prices on the industrial sector, initially increases the production of the industrial sector, which can be due to expansionary policies, leading to long-term adjustment and neutralization. Other shocks also cause turmoil in industrial production, which, like oil price shocks, creates damping waves. The analysis table of variance of production of the industrial sector shows that in the first place, the explanation of the production of the industrial sector is the previous values ​​of the production of the industrial sector, and with 41% of the reason for the changes, The power of shocks from global prices and interest rates with 39% and 13%, respectively, were named as the cause of changes. In fourth place is total production with 4% of the cause of change, other variables explain small amounts of the cause of change in the long run. The results showed that the variables of global prices and interest rates have the greatest impact on increasing the output of the industrial sector and given that the interest rate is one of the monetary instruments, so in practice the central bank can achieve the goal of maximum growth of industrial output. Also follow.

Given that the results show that oil revenues will strengthen industrial production in the short term but will be neutralized in the long term, it indicates important issues and very important political recommendations. First, the huge overflow of revenues from oil resources has not been able to Is to have a fundamental impact on industrial production, in other words, we have lost resources and have not been able to build industry; On the one hand, managerial inefficiency shows the use of oil revenues in the industrial sector, and on the other hand, it shows us a clear path ahead, or in other words, it shows us based on the past and seeing the performance. We can decide for the future. If our policy plan is the same as in the past, we will not be able to help industrialize with oil revenues. On the other hand, the results show that the most important part of explaining the changes in industrial production is the amount of industrial production in the past, and this indicates the infrastructure and market conditions in previous periods, so holding exhibitions to introduce and facilitate transactions, improvement Business and transactional conditions, maintaining and strengthening production infrastructure can be more useful than monetary policy, and given that global price shocks justify about 39% of changes in industrial production, it shows the fact that the economy We are very much influenced by the international economy and most of the production resources of the industrial sector are supplied from the international market. The international market is also an important market for the sale of domestic industrial goods and at the same time an important market for the supply of alternative goods, so while interaction in the international economy has proven beneficial effects, it is a very important alarm for our country that political relations Our country and negative political interactions can cause profound damage to our industrial production. In other words, our industrial production is very sensitive to international economic relations, and this indicates the need for great caution in this regard.

In recent years, environmental problems have increased and manufacturing  is one of the sectors that emits polluting gases, so energy efficiency and environmental efficiency of industries, has attracted a lot of attention. The purpose of this study is to assess the environmental efficiency in industrial sector of Iran's provinces for natural gas consumption. For this purpose, while using data envelopment analysis and directional distance function, the environmental effects of natural gas consumption were investigated. Labor, capital and natural gas consumption were considered as inputs and carbon dioxide from natural gas consumption and value added were considered as undesirable and desirable outputs, respectively. The results indicate that the environmental efficiency of industries in the provinces of Iran is low. In 1397, the industries of Tehran and Kerman provinces had the best environmental performance. Regional analysis also indicates that the provinces located in area one of the country's divisions have the highest level of environmental efficiency. Findings of this study also confirm the significant dispersion in the efficiency of different areas.

Management and optimization of energy consumption has been importantly considered by policy-makers in the field of energy and environment from the perspective of energy security and environmental considerations. In this study, nondominated sorting genetic algorithm (NSGAII) was applied to determine the optimal share of fossil energy sources for energy intensive industries of Iran including The Manufacture of food products and beverages, The Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel, The Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products, The Manufacture of other non-metallic mineral products and The Manufacture of basic metals. According to which the share of kerosene, 0.098%, 0.17%, 0.016%, 0.05%, 0.014%, the share of diesel, 12.88%, 0.93%, 0.62%, 1.97%, 0. 96%, the share of natural gas, 68.81%, 85.25%, 98.29%, 80.32%, 98%, the share of liquefied gas, 0.18%, 2.17%, 0.08%, 2.66%, 0.33%, the share of gasoline, 1.32%, 0.29%, 0.37%, 0.15%, 0.052% and the share of heavy fuel oil 16.7%, 11.18%, 0.62%, 14.83% , 0.65%, was obtained respectively. Then, the study utilized data envelopment analysis (Slack-Based measures) to measure the environmental and economic efficiency in some selected sub-sectors of industry by means of optimal amounts and then compared the results with the real amounts of energy consumption during 2011, 2014, 2015, and 2016. The results of optimization model compared with the real share of energy consumption that indicates the improvement of economic and environmental efficiency in the years under review.

Achieving economic growth along with improving the distribution of income is always one of the main goals of economic development. In this regard, policy makers are the tools and policies that enhance the growth and distribution of income in a coherent way. On the other hand, it is expected that the insurance industry will be able to provide simultaneous access to economic growth and distribution of income, taking into account the function of risk distribution and its compensation, as well as its role in financial development. To test this hypothesis, here has used of the AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach during the period 1975-2016.The results showed that the development of the insurance industry could provide simultaneous access to economic growth and income distribution in the short run. But in the long run, it will only lead to economic growth. However, in the long run, it could be reliant on human and physical capital for simultaneous access to economic growth and the distribution of income. Also, based on the error correction model, 88.2% and 68.1% of the non-equilibrium related to the non-oil per capita gross domestic product and Gini coefficient are adjusted in each period, respectively.

In The second half of the 20th century onwards, especially since the 1970s, following widening the income gap between the poor and the rich as well as the development in public awareness, it has been emphasized on increasing the quality of life (Mehregan & Salarian, 2008:13). In general, classical and neoclassical economists believe that an uneven distribution of income can have a positive effect on the growth process, while others such as Mirdal and Sen believe that economic growth entails an improvement in income distribution and in fact considers the reduction of inequality necessary (Khodadad Kashi & Heidari, 2008: 153). However, if economic growth and improvement in income distribution are considered two essential components of economic development, there are three strategies for development (Sharifzadegan, 2007: 23-24):A) Growth then Redistribution (GTR): Accordingly, with economic growth and the creation of vast economic capacities and enlarging the size of the economy, the conditions for employment is automatically provided for all social and income groups, thereby achieving a balanced income distribution.B) Redilribution then Growth (RTG): In this strategy, comprehensive resources are mainly spent on proper distribution of income, and investment on economic growth and attention to it comes at a lower level, and practically undermines the social capacity of the community. Many experiences and studies show that in the long run, this policy will not achieve a balanced distribution of income or economic growth.C) Growth with Redistribution (GWR): This strategy emphasizes that income redistribution cannot work without relying on a booming economy. In this strategy, executive policies should be able to work both for economic growth and for income distribution. The development of the insurance industry with the aim of fostering economic growth and improving income distribution can also be considered as one of the policies of this strategy.

In this section, the following two econometric models are considered to examine the effects of the development of the insurance industry on economic growth and income distribution: (1) (2) In the empirical studies, the variable level of income is present in the income distribution model, but the present study assumes that the level of income of individuals affected by physical wealth (physical capital or CAPL) and human wealth and capital (skill, expertise, and education level or HCAP). Accordingly, the LHCAP and LCAPL variables are used in the income distribution model instead of the natural logarithm of the income level. The research models for the period 1975-2016 will be estimated using the ARDL method.

Because dynamic short-run interactions between variables are not considered in OLS method, the use of this method in estimating the long-run relationship does not necessarily yield unbiased estimation. Therefore, it seems reasonable that in such cases those models be considered that have short-term dynamics and thus make the model coefficients more accurately estimated. The ARDL method is a dynamic model that allows to estimate the long-run coefficients of the model with appropriate accuracy in addition to the cointegration test between variables (Nofersti, 2008). The main advantage of using the ARDL method is that regardless of whether the research variables have unit root in levels or some become stationary by one time differentiation, a long-run cointegration relationship between the variables can be obtained.

Achieving high economic growth coupled with improved income distribution has always been a major concern for policymakers in developing countries. In this regard, based on their historical experiences and those of other countries as well as the theoretical and empirical studies, countries prefer the strategy of Growth with Redistribution over GTR strategy or vice versa. On the other hand, insurance is expected to provide simultaneous access to economic growth and income distribution, given its functional role in risk distribution and compensation as well as its role in financial development. In the present study, this hypothesis was tested for the Iranian economy over the period 1975-2016 using the ARDL method.The results of estimating income distribution model as ARDL (1, 1, 2, 3, 3, 1) showed that insurance penetration factor variables had a negative effect on Gini coefficient immediately and with a one-year lag. Oil revenues also have an impact on the Gini coefficient similar to that of the insurance industry, with its effect initially positive and negative with a one-year lag. But human capital with a two- and three-year lag and physical capital with a three-year lag have a negative effect on the Gini coefficient. Also, the results of estimation of economic growth model as ARDL (2,1,2,2,0) showed that development of insurance industry has positive and immediate effect on economic growth. The variables of human and physical capital have a positive significant lagged and non-lagged effect, and business openness variables have a positive and significant effect on economic growth after one-year lag.

Good governance is an index designed by the World Bank to classify governments in terms of their attention to people and their social and economic status. One of the most important factors in implementing good governance in many countries has been environmental decision making, in today's world, the environment is one of the most important issues facing people. Various factors affecting the environment include economic variables (industrialization, trade and technological inequality), political variables (democracy and despotism), social variables (urbanization and literacy rate) and government (size and quality of government). In this study, the effect of good governance on CO2 emissions in G8 countries is investigated.

Theoretical framework:

Governance has a broad meaning that is directly related to domains such as the economic environment or, in other words, economic security, politics, society and rights. The World Bank has introduced governance indicators to reflect the institutional quality of countries. These indicators include voice and accountability, political stability, control of corruption, regulatory burden, government effectiveness and rule of law. Various aspects of governance, both direct and indirect, affect carbon dioxide emissions.

Quantile regressions id based on a symmetric and asymmetric loss function and calculated similarly to the estimation of parameters in the Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. The general definition of quantile regression is that if the linear regression model is assumed to be the followingEquation (2), the condition quantile function τ distribution of y shows to the condition of random variables x, where the following condition holds.) =To estimate the coefficients of the model, minimize the value of the absolute value of the errors is used with proper weighing: Equation (3) obtains answers by linear programming. In this study, a panel quantile regression method with fixed effects is used. Consider the following fixed-effect panel quantile regression model: Where is the conditional 100 quantile of   ,  is the fixed-effects parameters correlated with  , which exhibits the unobservable effects of each specific country and  is the slope coefficient at the 100 quantile. The unique feature of this method is that a penalty term in minimizing to address the computing problem introduces a sum of parameters; Estimates of the parameters are as follows:min(α,β) (5)In relation (5), i indicates the number of countries (N), T time period, K, the level of quantiles, x the matrix of explanatory variables and  the quantile loss function. In addition, shows the relative weight for kth quantile. In this paper, = 1/K is considered. λ is the adjustment parameter that reduces the individual effects of to zero to improve the performance of β.
 

The model presented in this study is as follows:The description of variables is as follows: The estimation results in Table (2) show that energy consumption at all quantile levels from 5% to 95% has a positive and significant effect. As shown in Figure (1), the effect of energy consumption on CO2 emissions in all countries has a constant trend. GDP has a negative effect on CO2 emissions at all quantile levels, the results of the OLS estimates also confirm the negative relationship between GDP and carbon dioxide emissions. The results of different quantile levels show a strong and positive effect on the relationship between governance and CO2 expansion.Trade openness in the quantile of 5% to 20% has a positive and significant effect on carbon dioxide emissions, but for the quantile levels above 70%, the increase in trade has a negative impact on CO2 emissions. The relationship between urbanization and carbon dioxide emissions is positive and significant at all quantile levels. The relationship between industrialization and carbon dioxide expansion is also positive and significant at all quantile levels.Chart (1)-Estimation results of panel quantile regression

Conclusions & Suggestions:

This study investigates the effect of governance on carbon dioxide emissions in the G8 countries over the period 1996 to 2016 using the panel quantile regression method. The results show that the effect of the good governance index, which shows the quality of a country's public institutions and the ability of the government to perform its duties, has a negative and significant effect on the amount of carbon dioxide emissions that represent environmental status in all quantiles. However, this effect is stronger in the lower quantiles and reduces the movement to the higher quantiles.

This paper aims to identify the Objectives and interests of oil countries (especially Iran), international oil companies in an oil and gas contracts. The methods is documentation And structured interview with the especialists. The conclusion shows that the Objectives and interests of the two parties are very diverse. For the host country, these Objectives and benefits include revenues and costs, technology, the domestic economy, and technical, economic, and financial exploitation of reservoirs, as well as information. the Objectives and interests of companies are included revenues and costs, technology, the economy of the motherland, the preservation of monopolies, and information. Therefore, it is necessary to consider the appropriate strategies for reaching the Objectives and benefits in setting up an oil contracts, especially during the negotiations

Women comprise half the population of our country, but only 15.5% of the employed labor force in the economy belongs to them. In spite of the absence of the majority of women in the labor market, statistics show that the unemployment rate of women is about twice as much as that of men. It is predicted that women’s tendency for participation in economic activities will increase through enhancing their academic education and cultural changes and they will increase inequality between men and women. Hence, some of the authors have spoken of “the feminization of poverty”. According to Household Budget Survey by Statistical Center of Iran, female-headed households form only 12% of the poor people of the country and the poverty rate among them is the same as the one among male-headed households. Therefore, high rate of poverty among female-headed households is not acknowledged by statistics. However, the focus of this study is to show that due to gender inequalities the probability of poverty among female-headed households is higher than that of male-headed households.
In the present study, data from the Household Budget Survey of Statistical Center of Iran in 1393 and logit and probit models have been used to find the main factors of poverty among female-headed households. In general, according to the used data set, two types of the models are estimated: (1) the models on total households (2) the models on female-headed households. With regard to the first model, gender variable is used as an explanatory variable, but in the second types of models, there isn’t such variable as an explanatory variable, because all heads of households have the same sex (they are women). The first models show the net effect of gender on poverty probability, regardless of age, education and marital status. In other words, the coefficient of the gender of the household head represents net social discriminations that according to the sign of this coefficient, these discriminations are against men or women. The second type of models estimates the probability of poverty of a female-headed household with respect to age, education, working status and marital status. It is possible that a society does not discriminate between men and women, but female-headed households cannot provide a standard living for themselves due to the low ability. The second type of models identifies the most important characteristics of female-headed households that lead into their poverty.
Findings: Results show that the following variables have a significant effect on an increase in the probability of poverty in female-headed households: residency in the Sunni provinces, the head of the household being 30 to 40 or 50 to 60 years old, the large number of teenagers (9-19 years old) in the family and the number of rooms and area available for female-headed households. The variables which also have a significant impact on the reduction in the probability of poverty among female-headed households include: the low number of family members, being a housekeeper, being employed and being paid without having to work, the large number of family members who are studying and have a job, being the owner or a tenant, holding funeral services and having a surgery over the past year.
Widows who are housewives, between 30 and 40, or 50 and 60 years old, are more subject to poverty, and this can be caused by the absence of social support (including society or government). In comparison, female-headed households who are housewives, have had more social support. The more social support the families had in the Statistical Center of Iran, the more evidence we could gather on this subject. It turns out that with regard to the large economic gaps between women and men and the higher probability of poverty among women, the same rates of poverty between men and women is due to social supports.

Calculating the monetary value of social capital give decision makers the opportunity to expand and strengthen dimensions that are more valuable to the people. The purpose of this study was to estimate the monetary value of social capital in Tehran. In order to this, social capital questionnaire was distributed between 345 people then by having capita income annual per households an estimated Probit model was estimated using STATA13. To estimate the parameters, use eight regression models, and after estimating the welfare function, the monetary value of social capital using the shadow price model was estimated in two steps.The results show that on average a one standard deviation increase in interpersonal-trust is worth an extra 7000000, in people’s-fairness 2000000, institutional-trust 16000000, and in Trustworthiness is 3000000 Rial per year in terms of foregone income. In the field of informal participation and Meeting-people have been worth an extra 1500000 and 4000000 Rial respectively. The findings indicate that social capital has significant monetary value to individuals. This should be considered when designing government policies aiming at e.g., labor market mobility that are accompanied by a decreasing social capital stock that, in turn, may negatively affect economic and political development.

The aim of this paper is to study volatility spillovers among stock, gold and exchange rate markets. A “VAR–MGARCH” model was applied for Iranian financial markets for the period of March 21, 2011 to September 22, 2014. The data used are daily price of Bahar Azadi Coin, Tehran price stock index and nominal exchange rate (Dollar in terms of Rials).The results indicate that there are bidirectional shock transitions between gold and exchange markets and between gold and stock markets and there is a unidirectional shock transition from stock market to exchange market. Also, the results show that there are bidirectional volatility transitions between exchange and gold markets and gold and stock markets.

The increasing demand for natural gas and growing share of this energy carrier in the world primary energies supply and the necessity of creating added value from gas resources instead of selling them crudely, has made it necessary to use new technologies in this industry for Iran as the world's largest gas reserves holder. In this study we have evaluated the application of the process of gas to liquid products (GTL) conversion technology in Sarakhs special economic zone using Comfar software and in terms of the Net Present Value (NPV) criteria, Internal Rate of Return (IRR) and payback period (PP) and also based on studies carried about Iran in 72 different cases. Based on the findings, the project is merely justified in the case of maximum predicted price for each barrel of crude oil. As expected, the project has economies of scale. The results also show that if the feed cost of production unit is calculated with consumer prices, the project will be profitable even on a small scale and with high investment costs.

It has been said about variety of capital markets and financial institutions to mobilize savings and increase investment and raise capital formation in our country for a long time. By Looking at The foreign samples in the field of Waqf founds, it is seen that during the long years these institutions worked and Waqf founds in west and far east were the provider of financial affairs for many of cultural and social institutions. The purpose of this paper is to find out the potential of an innovation in the Islamic financial instruments, cash Waqf, as an effective factor in investment and its relationship with development plans in order to reduce poverty in the society. For this purpose, the present study is based on functionality; in terms of methodology is survey-analysis and is based on analysis of covariance matrix of the model using a structural equation modeling (SEM). The results of the study show that if Cash-Waqf to be used as a financial instrument in the Islamic economics, it can be a source of increase in investment in the form of Islamic contracts and legal forms and using the profit of investment in poverty reduction programs and to provide microfinance for people with low income and can be effective in the development of Islamic society.

Targeted Subsidies is an important and visible part of the economic development plan which leads to a change in the subsidy. Factors such as the expansion and diversification of economic activities, the increasing role of government in the development of public services, social security, the development of government commitments in social and economic fields, efforts towards realizing economic growth, and equitable distribution of income have turned the payment and receipt of taxes to an important and effective tool. Taxation is one of the most important levers in the hands of the government which has a major role in preventing inflation and recession as well as in a fair distribution of wealth in the society.
In order to reach the objectives of this study, the following question was raised: Has the targeted subsidies plan affected the combination of taxes?
The statistical population included informed and clear-sighted people about factors affecting the tax income including experts of the tax organization. Statistical sample consisted of 35 persons and the method of sample selection was random sampling. After collecting questionnaires, data analysis was performed using SPSS software package. Given that the studied variable in this research is measured based on an interval scale, the following relations were used to determine the sample size: Where, r is the upper bound of the relative error determined previously, N is the size of population, S and are population’s parameters (error coefficient is and confidence coefficient in level of 99% is equal to ). The required sample size for each group of statistical population was obtained as the table below.
Table1: population and sample sizes
Group Population size Parameter estimation from initial sample Final sample size
mean Standard deviation
Taxes on goods and services 82 3.65 0.72 35
The questionnaire queries the effectiveness of various factors on the amount of tax on goods and services.
Validity of questionnaire
Validity means to what extend the provided tool measures the considered specific concept (Secaran, 2001). The questionnaire used in this research has been validated according to theoretical foundations and the opinion of experts, intendants and advisers .
Reliability of the questionnaire : In order to calculate Cronbach alpha, firstly, it is required that the variance of scores of each subset of questions be calculated and then the total variance be determined. Then by replacing them into the following formula the value of the Cronbach alpha will be obtained: Where, k is the number of subsets of questionnaire or questions of questionnaire; is the variance of kth question and is the total variance.
Thus, Cronbach alpha reflects the amount of positive correlation of the members of a set with each other.
Table2: Cronbach alpha coefficient
Row Questionnaire Cronbach alpha coefficient
1 Taxes on goods and services 0.840
In checking his hypothesis, in order to get familiar with the manner of answers provided to the questionnaire and the significance test of each of them, firstly using frequency tables, we checked the answers. Then using t-student significance test, we checked the mean of answers so that a clear result was obtained about the view of respondents on each question.
Table3. reports the results of evaluating frequency percentage of provided answers to independent variable questions (Taxes on goods and services) (%) row Factor Increase so much increase Do not change decrease Decrease so much
1 Decreased export 0 20 48.6 28.6 2.9
2 Increased import 25.7 42.9 14.3 17.1 0
3 Decreased production (decreased economic growth) 2.9 77.1 0 17.1 2.9
4 Increased prices general level 2.9 77.1 0 1.71 2.9
5 budget deficit (increased government debit, more money issue for supplying government’s expenditure) 2.9 76.5 14.7 5.9 0
*See the rest of the table to text
As observed in the questionnaire, the scores given to each item of the questionnaire are as follow: highly reduces (1), reduces (2), does not change (3), increases (4), highly increases(5). Basically, the value of 3 is considered as the comparison criterion and test of mean comparison. The result of this test is reported in table (4) bellow.
Now, after t-student test and understanding the relationship between research variables, we draw path analysis diagrams to understand the direct and indirect effects of dependent and independent variables. Path analysis of variables studied in this research question can be seen in Graph 1 below.
Graph 1: Path analysis of research variables (Taxes on goods and services)
Totally, in the analysis of trends and the share of proceeds of direct and indirect taxes, it is important that before and after the implementation of the plan, no evident and significant change is observed in the trend of components and the total collected direct tax. In other words, the policy of targeted subsidies, at least in the short term, has had no significant effect on the amount of tax on goods and services proceeds.

Study about the effect of natural resource abundance is one of the important issues especially in developing countries. This study is investigated effective factors on human capital accumulation in Iran with emphasize on oil rent in the framework ARDL model during the period 1971-2012. To investigate this relationship، the ratio of oil rent as a percent of GDP، as an indicator of the resource abundance is defined and other variable like population، GDP، domestic investment and Government''s expenditure are used as control variables. Based on the results، resource abundance and domestic investment have negative effect on human capital accumulation in Iran. Also the results indicates that population and economic growth have positive effect on human capital accumulation that is accommodate with the theoretical literature.

Production process in Iran, as in the other developing countries, involves exploiting and, at the same time, destroying the environment. Since the environmental and social problems increase in the course of development, and they are not simply solvable by law and market mechanism, observing ethics and existence of ethical markets are necessary in order for these problems to be solved. Ethical market is the place for supplying and demanding goods and services that have environmental benefits and are standard so long as the social issues are concerned. In the present article, we introduce different indexes for identifying ethical markets, and compare, in this regard, Iran with the countries mentioned in the Iran’s 20-Year Vision Plan and also with selected developed countries in 2012. Thereafter, using the software SAS and adopting principal component analysis method, we introduce a general index for ethical markets and compare Iran’s position with that of Vision Plan countries and a set of selected developed and developing countries. The results show that the environment operation index has the greatest effect on the general index of ethical markets, and good governance index takes second place. The selected countries, excluding China, are the top ranked ones in the table, and, between the Vision Plan countries, Georgia ranks first. Iran, with respect to the indexes of ethical markets, ranks low.

Considering the present situation of the society that increasing inegulity led to deprivation progression and according to impact of huge institution of waqf (endowment) at resolving such problems, it is necessary to make an opportunity that new subject such as cash waqf being studied and examined. The aim of this paper is to study the theoretical and jurisprudential views and analysis the benefits of cash waqf. looking at the historical trend of the term of cash waqf and it's honorable history in some societies and fading out at the others, the necessity of examination of this subject is getting more outstanding. Based on analytical - descriptive methods and by Using of documents and library resources as well as domestic and foreign papers, cash waqf is going to be explored in this paper.The results of this research that are based on theoretical analysis show that cash waqf is possible and it is not in contrast with religious principles. As well as, the results show that cash waqf would have important role on poverty reduction and jobs development in society

This paper using endogenous growth models based on research and development, has investigated two economic relations in three groups of countries included developed countries, developing countries and a mixed group of both mentioned ones. At first, the effects of R&D activities on patent growth have examined and then the relation between volume of patent and growth rate in these groups has surveyed. One of the problems for estimating endogenous growth model based on R&D is finding a suitable representative for qualitative variables, we use gross R&D expenditures as a criterion for measurement of endogenous investment for changing the technology. Useful patent is a proxy for growth rate of patent result in investment in R&D field. In addition, growth of total factor productivity is the proxy for changing in technology and the growth rate of GDP as a criterion for economic growth has taken place. Results of this paper show that investment in R&D activities has significant and positive effect on patent flow in both developed and developing countries and also this effect is greater in developing countries than developed countries. Moreover in developing countries, effect of growth in R&D expenditure on growth of patent flow is 6 times of developed countries. The other finding is that in developing countries, effect of increasing patent on additional GDP is greater than the corresponding factors in developed countries. And finally, investment in R&D activities has significant and positive effect on growth of gross national output in both groups of countries.